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Author Topic: Bernanke Doesn't See Return of '70s Woes
thinkmoney
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what's the latest?/ In afghanistan - denounce West - freedom of speech - We are at war - and sop the appeasement--

Bush gotu s int his war and now we have no choice---

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thinkmoney
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We say freedom of speech, they say Islam ---

So, in Bitain and here appeasement---

China - well they wait in the sidelines and russia knows cold war not over---

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glassman
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TM, we are not at war with Islam.

certain parts of Christianity and certain parts of Islam WANT to be at war with each other.

you are playing into somebodies politcal agenda by saying we are at war with Islam..

there are in fact only about 50,000 Islamic terrorists worldwide.

most of them are in Pakistan.

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Propertymanager
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quote:
The news keeps talking about sub-prime woes and adjustable rate mortgages reseting at higher rates causing massive foreclosures. I just don't get how this is happening.
I'll tell you exactly how this happened. During the recent real estate boom period, lenders were offering (and borrowers were stupid enough to take) loans that offered a "gimmick" rate for the 1st year or two. If you watched TV at all during the boom period, you saw an almost constant barrage of commercials offering $200,000 loans with a monthly payment of like $850 per month!!! It doesn't take a brain surgeon to understand that JUST THE INTEREST on $200,000 is WAY MORE THAN $850 per month. So, not only is the borrower not even paying the interest, but the balance of the interest not paid during the "introductory" period is ADDED TO THE PRINCIPAL owed on the loan!!!

So, when the rate resets, the borrower suddenly has to make a REAL loan payment (principal and interest) and on a higher balance (because of the interest that was tacked on). If it was a subprime loan (meaning that the borrower had crappy credit) or used a liar loan, the interest rate could easily be 8%, 10%, or even 12%. Let's just say that the interest rate only goes to 8%, that would mean that the new payment would be in excess of $1,467 and that does not include the increased principal amount that resulted from the added unpaid interest during the introductory period.

So, in my example, the mortgage payment could easily go from $850 to $1,467 per month when the rate resets. Since we are in a national crisis and can expect the FED to print money with wild abandon (causing inflation to explode), interest rates will almost certainly go dramatically up in the relatively near future and these gimmick loans will be resetting MUCH HIGHER!

Hope that helps.

Mike

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thinkmoney
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Well, Glass I disagee - we are at war with Islam -

Most modeate islamists dont take a stand - in sidelines until choice -

In usa where seculars push no christianity, they give way to muslim foot sinks, and muslim praying-

Glass, you are ina glass house, we are at war with Islam- Alot ont want to admit it - bit in reality islam is anti-west...they hate us- we appease but appeasement wont workd

Look at Britain it is a step to us-

the muslims come here but they eant Islam irn this county -- seperate sexes - foot sinks and let us pray---

Glass- Iam surprised ya dont think so - we are at war with Islam - the fringes got us in this war and now we ae in it---
glass give the muslims foot sinks, prayer and also as kmart does, allow muslims not to ring up pork-

It is a war with Islam - in college - I saw it then - 0 yrs ago-


so, appease

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thinkmoney
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we are at war with Islam - just most westerners want to appease and islamists fight while the islam moderates on sidelines--
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thinkmoney
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Islamists the fight us are in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, most muslim countires and worldwide. In UK and here....
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glassman
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quote:
Originally posted by thinkmoney:
we are at war with Islam - just most westerners want to appease and islamists fight while the islam moderates on sidelines--

hmmmm...

maybe we should just stop buying their oil and stop empowering them?


as for the war you seek? you will find it if you look long and hard, but what you are calling a war is not a war, it's a culture clash.

Christians have the very same rights in America that Muslims do.

yes there are a few odd exception like the recent gymnasium closings fro Muslim women, which i DO NOT agree with, but? the US is founded in Freedom of Religion, not freedom of one religion above another.

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thinkmoney
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Because SOUL sellout and stupidity is/was buying their oil -We should have stopped buying their oil decades ago - we have empowered them- empowered them to destoy us-

How about schools givng foot sinks for muslim kids so they can pray?

The point is the war is here but still mostly in Iraq, Mid East, Africa, UK, etc...

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glassman
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foot sinks are a war?

is this th eone that you are talking about?


DEARBORN, Mich. — Plans to construct two foot-washing stations continue at the University of Michigan at Dearborn amid concerns that such action would constitute an establishment of religion by the public university.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/20070829/NATION/108290057/1002

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thinkmoney
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And ,we wont allow our kids to pay?

But the war is the terorists, the islamists who admit it..it is the moderates who stand on the sidelines -

It is not a cultue clash - it is WAR ---

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thinkmoney
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The war is in Iraq, Isrel, Lebanon, Saudi arabis, etc-

I only used some examples where I am disgusted that the USa will permit Muslims to have their religious practises while denying the christians, etc...

many examples in the USa- foot sinks, muslims allowed to leave work for prayer, walmart allowing muslim employees not to ring up pork, the list goes on..special gym privileges for muslim females- after american females fought decades for equal rights and NO segregation-

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Machiavelli
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quote:
Originally posted by glassman:


here is what i said:


tell me how the GOVT in China has money to invest in the US when 3/4 of their people live on a couple hundred dollars a year?


i stand behind that statement. about 3/4 of the Chinese lives on a couple hundred dollars a year.

Your still talking out of your azz... if you had said they live on $200 per month then yes I would agree with you.. but sorry to say not $200 per year...

quote:
you cannot be talking to them on the phone, cuz they DON'T have them, or electricity or running water for flush toilets....
Again your talking out of your azz... in fact I do talk to one of my friends once in a blue moon on the phone at her apartment and sometimes her job (next time ask and don't presume).... If you did not have such a hatred for the Chinese and BLAME them for our problems you would of had the decency to ask me what part of China she lives in.... she lives in Shanghai which is the new Metropolis of China that is growing fast... She lives in a nice apartment (seen some of it on webcam and yes it looks like any normal apartment here with RUNNING WATER and all the other eminities) and works a nice job that she has moved up in... and because her husband has problems keeping a job in his field she is the main bread winner... plus she supports their daughter and I think her father is there as well whose living with them for a year...

quote:
they DO have plenty of green vegetables to eat, and damn little meat.

you need to do more research.

Again talking out of your azz... and perhaps you need to do more research with a reputable source... if your talking about the poverty stricken areas of China outside of cities then perhaps... but all countries have poverty...

quote:
your friends might be happy making 4,000$ a year, very happy, they are Upper Middle Middle Class for the Chinese...
I left this one for last... i asked her myself what she makes and she makes about $900 per month (I'll do the math for you - That is $10,800 USD per year). She told me that is considered a average salary in Shanghai but above average in other cities of China. And like I said with this salary she lives in a nice apartment supporting a husband, daughter and father. And to make myself more clear she recently went to school for Herbal Medicine and passed her licensing exams in that field to earn more when she pursues a position in that field.

China like us has it's poor, middle and rich class. As time goes on the standard of living is getting better there. Some areas more then others. I asked a Chinese citizen directly about her life and did not go by some biased sources that have their own agenda. She's not a Communist , is a recent Buddhist convert and has nothing to gain by lying unlike the NY Times (who I used to love reading) who has been caught more then once not being accurate in their facts and outright lies in others. I am not saying all that you said is inaccurate as healthcare is expensive in China which she told me herself but most or some of what you said is exaggerated.

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Ernesto "Che" Guevara de la Serna

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Machiavelli
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Now if you want to talk about what the Iraq War and/or occupation of it is costing us and our Economy then that is something worth talking about and not some other country's problems:

Studies: Iraq costs US $12B per month By CHARLES J. HANLEY, AP Special Correspondent
Sun Mar 9, 5:02 PM ET



The flow of blood may be ebbing, but the flood of money into the Iraq war is steadily rising, new analyses show. In 2008, its sixth year, the war will cost approximately $12 billion a month, triple the "burn" rate of its earliest years, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz and co-author Linda J. Bilmes report in a new book.


Beyond 2008, working with "best-case" and "realistic-moderate" scenarios, they project the Iraq and Afghan wars, including long-term U.S. military occupations of those countries, will cost the U.S. budget between $1.7 trillion and $2.7 trillion — or more — by 2017.

Interest on money borrowed to pay those costs could alone add $816 billion to that bottom line, they say.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has done its own projections and comes in lower, forecasting a cumulative cost by 2017 of $1.2 trillion to $1.7 trillion for the two wars, with Iraq generally accounting for three-quarters of the costs.

Variations in such estimates stem from the sliding scales of assumptions, scenarios and budget items that are counted. But whatever the estimate, the cost will be huge, the auditors of the Government Accountability Office say.

In a Jan. 30 report to Congress, the GAO observed that the U.S. will be committing "significant" future resources to the wars, "requiring decision makers to consider difficult trade-offs as the nation faces an increasing long-range fiscal challenge."

These numbers don't include the war's cost to the rest of the world. In Iraq itself, the 2003 U.S.-led invasion — with its devastating air bombardments — and the looting and arson that followed, severely damaged electricity and other utilities, the oil industry, countless factories, hospitals, schools and other underpinnings of an economy.

No one has tried to calculate the economic damage done to Iraq, said spokesman Niels Buenemann of the International Monetary Fund, which closely tracks national economies. But millions of Iraqis have been left without jobs, and hundreds of thousands of professionals, managers and other middle-class citizens have fled the country.

In their book, "The Three Trillion Dollar War," Stiglitz, of Columbia University, and Bilmes, of Harvard, report the two wars will have cost the U.S. budget $845 billion in 2007 dollars by next Sept. 30, end of fiscal year 2008, assuming Congress fully funds Bush administration requests. That counts not just military operations, but embassy costs, reconstruction and other war-related expenses.

That total far surpasses the $670 billion in 2007 dollars the Congressional Research Service says was the U.S. price tag for the 12-year Vietnam War.

Although American military and Iraqi civilian casualties have declined in recent months, the rate of spending has shot up. A fully funded 2008 war budget will be 155 percent higher than 2004's, the CBO reports.

The reasons are numerous: the "surge" of additional U.S. units into Iraq; rising fuel costs; fattened bonuses to attract re-enlistments; and particularly the need to "reset," that is, repair or replace worn-out, destroyed or damaged military equipment. Almost $17 billion is appropriated this year for advanced armored vehicles to protect troops against roadside bombs.

Looking ahead, both the CBO and Stiglitz-Bilmes construct two scenarios, one in which U.S. troop levels in Iraq and Afghanistan drop sharply and early — to 30,000 by late 2009 for the CBO, and to 55,000 by 2012 for Stiglitz-Bilmes — and a second in which the drawdown is more gradual.

Significantly, the two studies view different time frames, the CBO calculating possible costs met in the next 10 years, while Stiglitz and Bilmes also include costs incurred during that period but paid for later, such as equipment replaced in post-2017 budgets.

This factor figures most in the category of veterans' medical care and disability payments, where the CBO foresees $9 billion to $13 billion in costs by 2017. Stiglitz and Bilmes, meanwhile, project $422 billion to $717 billion in costs over the lifetime of soldiers who by 2017 are wounded or otherwise mentally or physically disabled by the wars.

"The CBO is only looking 10 years out on everything," Bilmes noted in an interview.

For its part, a CBO critique suggested that Bilmes and Stiglitz might be overstating the expense of treating veterans' brain injuries, a costly category.

The two economists say their calculations are conservative, because they don't encompass many "hidden" items in the U.S. budget. Their basic projections also exclude the potentially huge debt-service cost — on which CBO approximately agrees — and the cost to the U.S. economy of global oil prices that have quadrupled since 2003, an increase analysts blame partly on the Iraq upheaval.

Estimating all economic and social costs might push the U.S. war bill up toward $5 trillion by 2017, they say.

Their book already figures in the stay-or-leave debate over Iraq.

When Stiglitz testified on Feb. 28 before the congressional Joint Economic Committee, the ranking Republican, New Jersey's Rep. Jim Saxton, complained that such projections are too imprecise to help determine relative costs and benefits of the Iraq war.

Saxton said a rapid U.S. pullout could lead to full-scale civil war and Iranian domination of Iraq, "enormous costs" that he said should be weighed in any calculation.

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glassman
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If you did not have such a hatred for the Chinese and BLAME them for our problems you would of had the decency to ask me what part of China she lives in...

once again you accuse me of racism and bigotry when i am simply pointing out the problems we all face.

i showed you the fact that in RURAL areas which is 57% of the population they do in fact live on 133$ per year...

these figure are not media BS, they are actually provided by the Chinese media which is controlled by their govt.

i am not a racist, or a bigot. i see the Chinese GOVT as a rival empire, and our own politicians are selling US out. that is what i posted, and that is exactly what i meant.

until Americans recognise what the problems really are? they won't be fixed.

the problem is that the Chinese Govt does not look at money the same way that we do.

i provided you proof positive that the Chines Govt holds 1/3 of their GDP in foreign cash reserves which do nothing fro the people of China.

i accused your friends of nothing. i do not believe in supporting the Chinese Govt the way we have been supporting it, esp when it is not in our, or the people of China's best interest. they most assuredly do not deserve most favored nation status, which i believe Bill Clinton supported and aproved.

you are creating paper tigers from my posts to argue with.

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IWISHIHAD
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Quote Thinkmoney:

"I only used some examples where I am disgusted that the USa will permit Muslims to have their religious practises while denying the christians",
_________________________________________________

When are we denying Christians their religious practices?

Around my area in Ca. i am seeing more and more of these religious groups spending a lot more time pushing their particular religious ideas, this being stepped up bigtime in the last year.

I wonder if it has anything to do with the slowing economy?

Reminds me of the days of the Hare Krishna's at the airports.

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The Bigfoot
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quote:
Originally posted by thinkmoney:
The war is in Iraq, Isrel, Lebanon, Saudi arabis, etc-

I only used some examples where I am disgusted that the USa will permit Muslims to have their religious practises while denying the christians, etc...

many examples in the USa- foot sinks, muslims allowed to leave work for prayer, walmart allowing muslim employees not to ring up pork, the list goes on..special gym privileges for muslim females- after american females fought decades for equal rights and NO segregation-

You do not need a foot sink to pray Think Money. Though I'd guess if you wanted to do a foot washing as Jesus taught you could use those sinks to do so.

You do not need to face East and recite a litany to pray Think Money. You can pray at any time in any direction using any words you chose.

Christian pharmacists were given the right not to sell birth control long before Muslims asked not to have to ring up pork. You have the christian faith to blame for that one.

Your kids can pray at school Think Money. I know I sure as hell did. All the school asks is that you respect the separation of church and state and do so silently.

I do agree with you on the gym. The separation of sexes is not American. As far as I know that particular request is made out of cultural tradition rather than based of the Koran. That is one place where our Muslim neighbors will need to learn to adapt.

It all comes down to learning how to respect others differences. If you want respect Think Money then you have to show it first. And the religious right has shown very little respect for the separation of church and state in the last 15-20 years.

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The Bigfoot
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P.S.

Earlier you referred to the toxic merchandise
being sent to America by China.

While it does not excuse this activity I think it well worth highlighting that more than just a little of that toxic crap comes from improperly recycled American electronics that are shipped to countries that do not have environmental standards.

A practice that is much more profitable than recycling them in our own country where environmental regulations would require proper safeguards to ensure the workers health and safety.

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IWISHIHAD
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Here is the little league pledge do you think it should be used before every game?

The Little League
Pledge

I trust in God
I love my country
And will respect its laws
I will play fair
And strive to win
But win or lose
I will always do my best


Here is where the idea started from.

"Mr. McGovern wanted to give all leagues (not just those in the United States) a pledge reflecting some of the sentiments of the Pledge of Allegiance, minus the references to the U.S., while adding the elements of sportsmanship and the desire to excel"

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IWISHIHAD
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The Little League Pledge was drafted in the 50's and probably made more sense then.

What i have seen this year coaching the 5 year olds appears to be worst than when my kid went through little league.

They have the kids doing the pledge, yet are telling parents and kids that winning is not important. We do not even keep score but some sure wished we did. They are saying two different things between the pledge and what they kind of emphasize. Little League seems to think kids have no clue, dumb on their part.

Here is the parent pledge that should be done before every game. I would bite my tongue on the third part when being a manager. [Smile]



I will teach all children to play fair and do their best.
I will positively support all managers, coaches and players.

I will respect the decisions of the umpires.

I will praise a good effort despite the outcome of the game.


You can tell i am rather bored tonight. [Smile]

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glassman
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Rumors are that Bear Stearns is out of cash.

Look for the next big leg down.

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Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.

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The Bigfoot
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Just goes to show how close the the limit these big companies have pushed themselves in pursuit of big gains trusting to their size to keep them afloat. We need a serious change in economic theory within the big business world.

IWISH - pledge sounds good to me as long as a Christian can accept that when a Muslim or a Hindu says God they are thinking of a different deity.

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IWISHIHAD
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I think we are just seeing the tip of the iceburg
with the big companies.

I just do not see how companies can have long term growth with short term employees.


Does anyone know why i keep getting e-mails back that state they cannot deliver? They are going out internationally.

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IWISHIHAD
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Quote Bigfoot:

IWISH - pledge sounds good to me as long as a Christian can accept that when a Muslim or a Hindu says God they are thinking of a different deity.
_________________________________________________

What about if they don't believe? Remember these are kids and this is Little league, many parents and coaches are nuts and are waiting to label the kids for any reason.

That's why the word Win should not even be mentioned. What many of these coaches, parents and league officials don't understand is that by teaching fundamentals properly the wins will come.

And that doesn't mean 4-5 day practices for 7-8 year olds which is happening.

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Machiavelli
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quote:
Originally posted by glassman:
once again you accuse me of racism and bigotry when i am simply pointing out the problems we all face.

Never said you were a racist because if I did you would hate all asians which I did not say. But I did say you hated a certain country.

quote:
i showed you the fact that in RURAL areas which is 57% of the population they do in fact live on 133$ per year...

these figure are not media BS, they are actually provided by the Chinese media which is controlled by their govt.

Think about it Glass... this is a Gov't that is very secretive about itself. Do you really think that if what you say is true that they would admit it on it's own Gov't controlled media outlet?

quote:
i am not a racist, or a bigot. i see the Chinese GOVT as a rival empire, and our own politicians are selling US out. that is what i posted, and that is exactly what i meant.
Don't you think that if we didn't see China as trade/economic rivals that perhaps they would not do the same with us. We had this same dilemma imo with Japan in the 70's and 80's. Instead of being trade "partners" we saw them as trade "rivals" and this caused trade wars that effected our economy.


quote:
the problem is that the Chinese Govt does not look at money the same way that we do.
No they don't, they see it as of ways of making more money. Using money to make more money while we look at it as something to spend or borrow. That is the problem my friend. Our country and especially the Middle Class has always been like that.

quote:
i provided you proof positive that the Chines Govt holds 1/3 of their GDP in foreign cash reserves which do nothing fro the people of China.
Like I said. The Chinese Gov't would not let their gov't controlled media make such statements whether true or not because it would not be in it's best interest.

quote:
i accused your friends of nothing. i do not believe in supporting the Chinese Govt the way we have been supporting it, esp when it is not in our, or the people of China's best interest. they most assuredly do not deserve most favored nation status, which i believe Bill Clinton supported and aproved.
You accused them of first making $200 per year then $4,000 per year and both were false.
Correct me if I am wrong but in the not so distant past you had said that a country's peoples best interest should not be our interest. Now your stating that it should be in the case of China. Kind of contradictive imo.

quote:
you are creating paper tigers from my posts to argue with.
not really...

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Let the world change you... And you can change the world.

Ernesto "Che" Guevara de la Serna

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The Bigfoot
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quote:
Originally posted by IWISHIHAD:


What about if they don't believe? Remember these are kids and this is Little league, many parents and coaches are nuts and are waiting to label the kids for any reason.

[/QB]

Well, I am sure our atheist friends wouldn't care for my answer but I would suggest that they may or may not believe in a diety but they do have a god. Weither it is money or family or TV or whatever there is something that they center their lives around. But you are right, that probably wouldn't cut mustard with the group in question.

As to win or no win? My answer is simplistic. If there is no winner then there isn't much point to the game. However, RESPECT should be taught as more important than any win. If you cannot win by your own abilities without cheapening the performance of your rival with tricks then you do not deserve to win.

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IWISHIHAD
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Actually Bigfoot the teams with kids between the ages of 4-7 or 8 are not suppose to keep score. All teams bat through their lineup every inning and no outs are suppose to be recorded. Now some of the coaches have decided to make kids leave the bases when a out has been made.

The rules change more and more because so many parents forget what the game is really about at these younger ages...the kids.

The coaches job is teaching these young kids the fundamentals at practice and many other things. The game is used to show off those fundamentals and to have fun doing it.

The real hardcore baseball seems to be starting younger and younger in many of the areas around the US which is not good for the kids or the game.

Maybe that is why we have had such a problem with steroids in the majors. Wonder if they took their little league pledge to seriously and decided to win at all cost. This seems to be happening more and more at younger ages.(win at all cost)

Like i mentioned before they have kids at 8 years old(i think that's 2nd or third grade) spending 8 hours a week after school in baseball and another 2 hours on the weekend. Some of the parents saw their kids grades dropping so they had to pull them out of the baseball program.

Around my area you very seldom see kids just out in the park having a pickup game. This is one of the best ways to learn the game and have fun to.

I just hope some day we get away from parents completely controling the game of youth baseball, it is such a great game and has fallen to such lows as well as pro ball. Maybe there is a correlation between the two.

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For those of you in recession denial:

The chart speaks for itself.

 -

The good news is, when this market finally bounces..shes gonna bounce HARD!!! [Big Grin]

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glassman
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well, the hard part right now is finding the floor to bounce off of...

if we look for good PE ratios to buy on? it's going to be hard to factor inflation.

are you there Rimasco?

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glassman
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the rally this morning is suspicious.


the Fed News that is supposedly driving this came out late last week....

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The Bigfoot
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Did it come out last week that they were going to do it and today they actually did it? That was the way I understood the article.

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glassman
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i posted this in the other thread (dow sinks) on the 7th, even tho the date here says the 8'th? it it was already out on the 7th:


Fed to pump $215b into US economy


* March 8, 2008 - 11:26AM
* Page 1 of 2

The Federal Reserve moved to add as much as $US200 billion ($215 billion) to the banking system over the next month to offset a deepening credit crisis that may have already pushed the US economy into a recession.

The central bank raised to $US50 billion each from $US30 billion the amount intended for auctions of funds on March 10 and March 24. The Fed also said in a statement in Washington today that it will make $US100 billion available through weekly 28-day repurchase agreements, where the central bank will lend cash in return for assets including mortgage-backed bonds.


http://business.smh.com.au/fed-to-pump-215b-into-us-economy/20080308-1y0z.html


28-day repurchase agreements are the key here..

that's not overnite... it's longer than normal.

however? the repo's are THE sticking point in the credit crunch because people don't always want to repurchase bad paper once they've managed to unload it.

the Fed may be assuming the worst paper thru this deal, in which case? the taxpayer ends up with the bill...

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quote:
Originally posted by glassman:
well, the hard part right now is finding the floor to bounce off of...

if we look for good PE ratios to buy on? it's going to be hard to factor inflation.

are you there Rimasco?

I meant in the years to come when the recessionis over [Wink] Shes gonna bounce.. [Were Up]
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glassman
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it appears the $US100 billion available through weekly 28-day repurchase agreement, was doubled to $200billion today...

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Propertymanager
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Does it strike anyone else as ironic that the stock market goes up 400 points on news that the economy is in such bad shape that the FED must pump $200 Billion (that was simply printed from thin air)into the economy?

No wonder the big banks and financial companies are in such bad shape - THEY'RE STUPID!

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