A Tale of Two Sports Bettors John and Bob each started the season with $1000 - their bankroll. They both decided to play the same games throughout the season but they couldn't agree on how much to place on each game. John was more of a risk taker than Bob so John decided to bet about $150 per game (15% of his bankroll). Bob was more conservative and decided to risk about $50 per game (5% of his bankroll). John figured that if he bet more, he could win more. And he was right. In week one, their picks went 4-2. John was up $360 while Bob only won $90. John was very pleased with himself.
Week 2 produced the exact same result. John now had a $1720 bankroll while Bob was up to just $1180. John was very happy. He encouraged Bob to bet more but Bob wasn't so sure about that strategy. What if their luck started to turn? John preferred to think positively. Besides, they were 8-4 - they knew what they were doing!
But then came weeks 3 through 6 in which they went 2-4, 1-3 and 0-4, respectively. A bad run for sure, but not uncommon during a 16-week season.
Guess what? John was wiped out - completely. He lost his entire bankroll and a little more he had in "reserve." Bob, meanwhile lost $455 on the terrible run but still had $725 left over. One of them was out of money, the other had nearly 3/4ths of this original bankroll left.
What happened next? The unfortunate three-week run was followed by a great 3-week run where Bob went 10-3 and another 8 weeks of hitting a very respectable 58% on average. Bob ended up the season at over $1300 - an increase of 30% on his investment.
The morale of the story is obvious but very few sports bettors practice it. Don't overextend yourself. It is very tempting to put down a lot on each game, especially when you are winning. It is boring to put down a little. But, you need to work within your bankroll, whatever that is. There will be bad streaks and good streaks in sports betting. It is inevitable if you do it for any extended period of time. Do yourself the favor of allowing yourself to "stay in the game." Don't miss out on that late-season run of luck because you are out of the game too early.
So, how much you should you lay per game? It depends, of course, on your bankroll (how much in total you are willing to put down over the course of the season). But there is a simple rule that applies regardless of whether you are a ten-dollar per game bettor or a one-thousand-dollar per game bettor: Don't ever bet more than 10% of your bankroll on any given game. There are no locks. Let me repeat that - there is no such thing as a sure thing. Any bet can lose.
Now that I've layed out the 10% rule, let me add a caveat: You should almost never lay more than 5% on any single game. If you are extremely confident, you can consider laying as much as 10% but this should be very rare. If you rate games, as I do, based on confidence level, vary the bets in the 2%-8% range based on the confidence level.
Can you make money on this? Absolutely. While it is true that it won't be as much as you could make with larger bets but you will always be in the game! On the flip side, you will lose less if you catch a bad run. And, if you are winning and on a great roll, your bets increase and you can win even more. How? We are always using a percentage of your remaining bankroll. As your bankroll increases, your bet size increases. As your bankroll decreases, your bets decrease. A nice side benefit of this is that, by definition, you can never get wiped out. It is mathematically impossible to lose your entire bankroll if you are always betting a small percentage of it.
The bottom line: Remember, bet 2% - 8% of your remaining bankroll on any given game (more often on the low end of that range), and never more than 10%.
posted
I'll start. Tonight I like Philadelphia +1-1/2 at home against Phoenix, Portland -5 at home against L.A Clippers, and Atlanta at Seattle, under 190.
Posts: 5729 | From: Wisconsin | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
Took phil and over in the sea game.Hey that means one of us wins.WOO HOO
Posts: 942 | From: tracy,ca U.S.A | Registered: Aug 2004
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No did'nt mean it was gonna be me,just we both can't lose on that one.LOL
Posts: 942 | From: tracy,ca U.S.A | Registered: Aug 2004
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posted
No, didn't do the full slate thing again. That's only a couple of times a year thing. The most I'll do tonight is the 3 I mentioned. Probably hit them pretty hard though.
[This message has been edited by Upside (edited November 05, 2004).]
posted
In that case yes,no just got that in a free email from wunderdawg sports and thought timing was funny,you notice i said do what i posted not what i do.I bet 50 to 100 normally but on my big plays about 12 a year 500.been up last 4 years.be better if i would bet less, gotta have action
quote:Originally posted by Upside: No, I'm talking about your long post.
The new look Magic won at the buzzer in their season opener vs. the Bucks. The Magic look to be improved from last year but it still may take time for the various players to get used to playing with each other. Playing on the road vs. a hungry Hornets squad I look for them to lose tonight. Orlando was 10-31 on the road last year while the Hornets were 25-16 at home. New Orleans was 4-0 vs. Orlando last season. The Hornets were -7 and -7.5 favorites when they hosted the Magic last year. Solid value with the much smaller number here. Play on NEW ORLEANS
Posts: 9110 | From: boston, ma | Registered: Jan 2004
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How goes it keith did'nt know you did bb.I am trying to only dip my toes here and there on it to many games.Did you play it.
Posts: 942 | From: tracy,ca U.S.A | Registered: Aug 2004
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posted
You saw my post eh? Hope I don't piss anyone off on a serious thread. Oh well, wont be the last time.
Posts: 5729 | From: Wisconsin | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
I'm not, really. I didn't even take the Philly game because I was screwing around on Allstocks and forgot to phone it in. I've got Portland -5 and the under on the Atlanta/Seattle game. You know what I'm thinking about doing though? I'm going to bet against the Bobcats every game this year. I can't see an expansion team winning more than a handful and there's no way they'll cover the spread much more than 30% of the time. What do you think?
Posts: 5729 | From: Wisconsin | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
In theory yes but the number will start being manipulated if it is'nt already.But thats the only reason i had wash last night on the road,never would have played it. Keep an eye on wash think they will cover number alot this year.Remember breath,HMMM HMMMM HMMM slow down,got the whole season.You are like a horse at the starting gate.LOL
Posts: 942 | From: tracy,ca U.S.A | Registered: Aug 2004
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posted
I figured it out the other day that with all the teams playing 82 games I can make somewhere around 1200 bets between now and June. Worst case at 50 each I could lose somewhere around 72,000. Not too bad. Wait, I think I forgot the 10% grease. Well, thats only another 7,200. Call it 80 grand absolute worst case scenario.
Posts: 5729 | From: Wisconsin | Registered: Sep 2003
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Just remember i am here for you and said i would book your bets and give you a 20% year end rebate cause thats the kind of guy i am LOL You better be kidding,don't get buried on this crap. I would never make a good sponsor.You say i am gonna bet all 13 no don't.Okay i bet 3 okay thats fine.LOL
quote:Originally posted by Upside: I figured it out the other day that with all the teams playing 82 games I can make somewhere around 1200 bets between now and June. Worst case at 50 each I could lose somewhere around 72,000. Not too bad. Wait, I think I forgot the 10% grease. Well, thats only another 7,200. Call it 80 grand absolute worst case scenario.
posted
Methinks you worry too much. Although a 20% rebate is mighty attractive. Seriously though, this is just fun. I've been doing it for years and years and all I've lost so far is my wife and home, no big deal. Just kidding! Like I said this year won't be any different than any other one, up or down a couple hundred by the time the seasons done.
Posts: 5729 | From: Wisconsin | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
I know i am just joking also,but thanks for the tip on getting rid of the old lady.LOL
Posts: 942 | From: tracy,ca U.S.A | Registered: Aug 2004
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Hers a stock to look into snvbf.been watching for awhile.Getting ready to get in the next few weeks.Hepetites vaccines,sars,and a few others, its a chinese company think there is alot of potential.IMHO
Posts: 942 | From: tracy,ca U.S.A | Registered: Aug 2004
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posted
I'll take a look at it. Still haven't bought that horse racing one we were looking at, PXHI. Not doing much other than slowly going down. Keeping my eye on it though.
Posts: 5729 | From: Wisconsin | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
Same here once it kept dropping i passed.still watching it.Good thing you missed philly lost 108-98 at home.now i am 1-1 for the season with sea over pending.
Posts: 942 | From: tracy,ca U.S.A | Registered: Aug 2004
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posted
198 pace at the half. Looking good for you. My Portland bet (-5) is looking ok as of right now.
Posts: 5729 | From: Wisconsin | Registered: Sep 2003
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I decided to make a few 1st half 10.00 parlays.WOO HOO yeah kaching.Made some 10.00 game parlays too.Port, over,utah,over,sa,over over in the sea game,sa,over,port.
4) BET ID=225194 Parlay (5 Teams) 11/05/04 22:32 ET 10.00/233.20 (paid 243.20) Result: Wager Won 1Hawks(Atlanta) (1stHalf) 46 1Sonics(Seattle) (1stHalf) 53 11/05/04 (22:40 ET) 1Sonics(Seattle) -5.5
posted
Whoa, congratulations but what was that you were saying earlier about the brake, breath deep, slow down and all that? Seriously though, good job.
Posts: 5729 | From: Wisconsin | Registered: Sep 2003
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