A Tale of Two Sports Bettors
John and Bob each started the season with $1000 - their bankroll. They both decided to play the same games throughout the season but they couldn't agree on how much to place on each game. John was more of a risk taker than Bob so John decided to bet about $150 per game (15% of his bankroll). Bob was more conservative and decided to risk about $50 per game (5% of his bankroll). John figured that if he bet more, he could win more. And he was right. In week one, their picks went 4-2. John was up $360 while Bob only won $90. John was very pleased with himself.

Week 2 produced the exact same result. John now had a $1720 bankroll while Bob was up to just $1180. John was very happy. He encouraged Bob to bet more but Bob wasn't so sure about that strategy. What if their luck started to turn? John preferred to think positively. Besides, they were 8-4 - they knew what they were doing!

But then came weeks 3 through 6 in which they went 2-4, 1-3 and 0-4, respectively. A bad run for sure, but not uncommon during a 16-week season.

Guess what? John was wiped out - completely. He lost his entire bankroll and a little more he had in "reserve." Bob, meanwhile lost $455 on the terrible run but still had $725 left over. One of them was out of money, the other had nearly 3/4ths of this original bankroll left.

What happened next? The unfortunate three-week run was followed by a great 3-week run where Bob went 10-3 and another 8 weeks of hitting a very respectable 58% on average. Bob ended up the season at over $1300 - an increase of 30% on his investment.

The morale of the story is obvious but very few sports bettors practice it. Don't overextend yourself. It is very tempting to put down a lot on each game, especially when you are winning. It is boring to put down a little. But, you need to work within your bankroll, whatever that is. There will be bad streaks and good streaks in sports betting. It is inevitable if you do it for any extended period of time. Do yourself the favor of allowing yourself to "stay in the game." Don't miss out on that late-season run of luck because you are out of the game too early.

So, how much you should you lay per game?
It depends, of course, on your bankroll (how much in total you are willing to put down over the course of the season). But there is a simple rule that applies regardless of whether you are a ten-dollar per game bettor or a one-thousand-dollar per game bettor: Don't ever bet more than 10% of your bankroll on any given game. There are no locks. Let me repeat that - there is no such thing as a sure thing. Any bet can lose.

Now that I've layed out the 10% rule, let me add a caveat: You should almost never lay more than 5% on any single game. If you are extremely confident, you can consider laying as much as 10% but this should be very rare. If you rate games, as I do, based on confidence level, vary the bets in the 2%-8% range based on the confidence level.

Can you make money on this? Absolutely. While it is true that it won't be as much as you could make with larger bets but you will always be in the game! On the flip side, you will lose less if you catch a bad run. And, if you are winning and on a great roll, your bets increase and you can win even more. How? We are always using a percentage of your remaining bankroll. As your bankroll increases, your bet size increases. As your bankroll decreases, your bets decrease. A nice side benefit of this is that, by definition, you can never get wiped out. It is mathematically impossible to lose your entire bankroll if you are always betting a small percentage of it.

The bottom line: Remember, bet 2% - 8% of your remaining bankroll on any given game (more often on the low end of that range), and never more than 10%.

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Originally posted by Upside:
No, I'm talking about your long post.

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New Orleans Hornets

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Originally posted by Upside:
I figured it out the other day that with all the teams playing 82 games I can make somewhere around 1200 bets between now and June. Worst case at 50 each I could lose somewhere around 72,000. Not too bad. Wait, I think I forgot the 10% grease. Well, thats only another 7,200. Call it 80 grand absolute worst case scenario.

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Originally posted by Upside:
198 pace at the half. Looking good for you. My Portland bet (-5) is looking ok as of right now.

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