A bargain right now, not to mention, if their product hits, watch out!!! Endless possibilities. Read about what they do. Study the company and their product. Great, what I categorize as, "what if!?" stock.

Good luck!

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quote:

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Originally posted by treyda:
When they send out their next news release, this baby should get some serious legs. Hit a high of $5.50 a few weeks ago!

A bargain right now, not to mention, if their product hits, watch out!!! Endless possibilities. Read about what they do. Study the company and their product. Great, what I categorize as, "what if!?" stock.

To the moon Alice, to the moon!!! :-)
--Rate as Strong Buy--

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Yep, i'd say it was a good move. From what i've been able to determine, it seems like they have a solid product and none of their competitors come close to it. Hopefully an alliance with a major cigarette manufacturer will move things on. I maintain a large position at the moment and have no intention to sell. The stock is very closely held, with the founders maintaining a large majority ownership.

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While this stock maybe a good play for a trader who get in and out quickly, playing the volatility, if you buy Wellstone for long-term fundamentals you had best do your due diligence. Why?

Their patent clearly shows that their product is a "mechanical" filter -- in other words, it does very little to chemically select and remove carcinogens. What it primarily does is clog up the intake so you have increased pressure drop, which includes a decrease in nicotine. This is de facto what "light" cigarettes accomplished and were subsequently revealed as a fraudulent "safer" cigarette. Since smokers are addicted to nicotine, they will smoke more cigarettes, and in a more hazardous fashion, if you have mechanical filtration. Thus, such technologies are not safer.

http://www.wellstonefilters.com

I've reviewed as much of Wellstone's documentation as I could get my hands on, including some detailed financial forms. Wellstone's filtering technology is chemical/mechanical. Their patented chemical may be incorporated into a cigarette via granules, or by coating traditional filters.

I quote from the site:

"...The composite filter, which removes 92-93% of tar, removes less than 10% of nicotine from tobacco..."

Nicotine is the chemical that is responsible for the pleasurable effects in smoking. They address issues such as drag, which is created when too heavy a filtration process is utilized. They can tailor this effect by adjusting the number of granules that are included in the filter. I am sure that they are very well aware of other filtering techniques, such as a carbon filter (which one of their competitors use).

Yes, this is a speculative play, and so was TASR, one year ago. I'm not stating that WLSF will climb the way that TASR did, but I do think it holds excellent world-wide potential, especially versus their competition.

In addition, WLSF is very closely held. The founders maintain an overwhelming majority of the shares float, and this will prevent entities from making any attempts at a takeover. I applaud them for maintaining this ownership, as they are the developers of the technology.

Definitely perform due diligence on this and any other security that are purchased/held. Best of luck to you and others.

If anyone has futher information on Wellstone, please post.

Cheers

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quote:

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Originally posted by Mech Filter:
I have posted on another site regarding this technology. I suggest you do alot of due diligence (and not just based on what they publish) when evaluating their long-term potential.

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When they state their range of removal they are talking about almost purely mechanical filtration. They even had graphics on their website that demonstrated the nicotine pass-through was based on blend (i.e. higher nicotine blends) versus selective reduction. Please do not mistake the fact that just because they use a "chemical" compound, it doesn't mean they are creating selective chemical reduction. In fact, they are generally creating "mechanical" filtration. In simple terms, they are using starches as a sieve, and unfortunately these starches also remvoe nicotine. The company uses wording in its PR in a very effective way, so be careful. In addition, they recently admitted that they brought on their new scientist to achieve selective constituent reduction (the holy grail of harm reduction filters) -- i.e. they don't have it yet.

If they did, Altria would pony up so much money that the shareholders would flip in a minute. The reason they havent, and won't, is this technology is not what they claim...at least at this point. If you or anyone believes that it is, then I would suggest calling the company and asking for its biological test results (Ames, particularly strains TA98 and TA100) and TNC results (tar, nicotine and carbon monoxide). Also, if they have NRU (Neutral Red Uptake) results, which would show the cytotoxic results, those would be helpful. Distribute them, and I'll walk you through how to interpret them. My guess is that they won't release them. When people make claims but don't release results, it is suspicious.

Incase everyone hadn't spotted it, they issued a press release tonight (strange hour). Here's the link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040511/nytu240_1.html

Looks like they're going to move a little closer to the tobacco regions of the country for better exposure.

Cheers

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quote:

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Originally posted by Mech Filter:
Geronimo,
.
.
.
That said, I think the stock is a good trading play for now.

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Cheers

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quote:

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Originally posted by Marva18:
...

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I am a bit cynical about the PR because I saw that several senior people had filed to sell some stock in the past few months. I haven't been able to confirm whether they did, but I recall seeing the application.

where did u see this application?

About the relocation, they have a valid strategy. Moving to the tobacco regions will give them access to experienced resources from the area. Individuals that have worked in that industry for their entire lives. It will also give them closer contact with the firms that deal in that industry. I feel it's a good strategic move.

I believe that the industry is requesting selective filtration from them. If they can achieve this, then they are set.

Cheers
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quote:

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Originally posted by Marva18:
This could be hugh except its hard o totally believe the PR's from the company.
They said over a month ago they would ship one refinement of the product in 30 days since the international community is demanding it. So where is it. Plus do thy officially have patents filed in all those countries they mention or is it all fluff.
also why do they need to move their headquarters, thats a hugh family upheavel unless they want to get out of town.

I am not a basher, in fact a believer, just tired of all info and no contracts.

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Far from bashing, I am providing an educated view of how harm reduction technologies work in theory and where this product sits based on publicly available information. If you want to know why, just read the previous posts. Bottom line, mechanical filtration is a filtration that impedes nicotine along with tar, just like a sieve. As a result, while it reduces carcinogens at face value, smokers have to compensate for the nicotine reduction by smoking more. Thus, by the time they have have reached their nicotine requirement they have also offset the carcinogen reduction through the consumption of additional cigarettes. If the company would release test results showing something different than what their patent implies and their previously posted test result analysis demonstrated, then there would be evidence to suggest a real harm reduction technology.

I have mentioned on a number of occasions that from a trading perspective this could be quite interesting. From a fundamentals perspective, if the product meets the claims, then it could be great. However, the company has a responsibility to support its claims and has not done so (e.g. where are the chemical and biological test results). I merely pointed that out. What you call "bashing" is what most would consider proper due diligence. The only errata would be that I believe I mistook a senior mgmt filing for share sales with another company's -- so, my apologies for that.

As for the name under which this is posted, it is an appropriate pseudonym. If I get involved in more of these forums then I'll use something less specific.

Well, everyone knows the high was 5.50. So one would think that when it get 'legs' again, it will at least come somewhere close to that, equal, or god willing, better! :-) I'm in at 1.45 p/shr, so I am willing to ride at least until I get a 20% return. When I sell, is relative to how the stock is moving, volume, news and trends. If they are all very positive, then I will hold for as long as they remain so, if they are somewhat postive, then I will take my 20% and move on. You can always buy back in.

I agree that the company needs to disclose more information about it's technology. We should all keep in mind that they are a very small firm, with limited resources at this point. I hope they do have an innovative technology to provide to the world. Not solely for the sake of the company's investors, but also for those individuals that find it nearly impossible to quit smoking.

Cheers

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Originally posted by Mech Filter:
Stock Dude,
...

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We need some solid news, like that of an agreement, alliance, funding, etc. Until then it will remain in sleeper mode.

Cheers

I must have forgotten to post regarding this topic. I would think that Wellstone is worth at least what one of their competitors is worth. I recall one of them bringing in roughly 120 million per year, and that's with technology that simply uses some type of carbon filtering, if I recall correctly. It was awhile back when I read up on the information, so I can't say it's completely accurate.

Wellstone is stating that their filtration method not only reduces tar and carcinogens, but maintains the nicotine levels found in the smoke. I don't think that their competitors can claim to do that. If so, this is a different breed of filtering ability. Yes, potential customers are waiting for selective filtering abilities. However, we have no idea as to what capabilities Wellstone's scientists have in the way of improving their technology. So far it seems pretty good, and will potentially get better.

All that said, I think it's worthwhile to get in on this stock now, and hold on to it. Yeah, there are traders around, hopping in and out, etc. I think this is a buy and hold issue, with huge potential returns for the long term investor. Wellstone's main issue now seems to be funding, but I don't think this will be a problem, especially with the potential customer base, and the wealth of corporate entities willing to provide them with some R&D backing.

I really can't come up with any numbers on P/E, or potential revenues, etc. I think that what was stated on Wellstone's site or documents is extremely conservative. They have to be, otherwise they would risk potential lawsuits for making bogus claims. As I see it, their filtering technology far surpasses whatever is available in the marketplace at the current time. Wouldn't one think that smokers would welcome a product that would help them out in any way, while allowing them to enjoy the effects of smoking? Numbers would be very difficult to conjure up. The technology has world-wide application. The market is immense, and Wellstone's costs would be extremely low, as they are looking to license, not manufacture. I'm sure this would be the preferred way to go, as filter production is an inherent part of cigarette manufacture. This would simply be an additional process in filter production.

Any thoughts on what I've stated? All opinions welcomed, of course.

Cheers

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Originally posted by Mech Filter:
On a slightly different note, I wanted to know what people think a company like this is worth (P/e, P/R, PEG, whatever multiple you want to use)? What if they acheive 25% selective reduction? 50%? 75%? Or more? Is this a multi-billion company at that point? People have mentioned "legs" on this stock if they perform -- just interested in how far people are willing to ride.

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Thanks for the feedback. When I look at valuation for a company such as this it gets a little complicated. First, what type of company is this? A filter maker -- not quite, as the technology (assuming it works) would make it closer to a biotech/nrt-type company in terms of both multiples and accepted growth projections (both likely off a revenue line, if even that). If such a company develops brand equity in the manner of a Vector, then there is a reasonably comp out there but (i) Vector is only one comp and (ii) it does not have the same potency of harm reduction product (assuming the other works). It is also complicated by the business model -- does a filter company really want to get into cigarettes? The upside is that it is a lot easier to generate revenues/earnings, compared to filter-making which requires massive economies of scale. The downside: LIABILITY!

You can also value these on a trade sale basis by looking at the majors and trying to determine what incremental market share they can obtain by adopting the technology. Also, what would they pay to keep a competitor from having it?

Lastly, you can look at the social benefit (i.e. what are the health cost savings at various levels of implementation).

Personally I think such a company is sold before it breaks a US$500-700mm valuation. Buyer could be anyone, but at a certain point you need to change management and the original owners are going to want some return while their product is still hot. Patent or not, you never know when someone else can bring out a better product.