A bargain right now, not to mention, if their product hits, watch out!!! Endless possibilities. Read about what they do. Study the company and their product. Great, what I categorize as, "what if!?" stock.
To the moon Alice, to the moon!!! :-)
--Rate as Strong Buy--
Good luck!
___________
quote:
Originally posted by treyda:
When they send out their next news release, this baby should get some serious legs. Hit a high of $5.50 a few weeks ago!A bargain right now, not to mention, if their product hits, watch out!!! Endless possibilities. Read about what they do. Study the company and their product. Great, what I categorize as, "what if!?" stock.
To the moon Alice, to the moon!!! :-)
--Rate as Strong Buy--
They are way overdue for some news by the way. I'm expecting some next week.
Cheers
Yep, i'd say it was a good move. From what i've been able to determine, it seems like they have a solid product and none of their competitors come close to it. Hopefully an alliance with a major cigarette manufacturer will move things on. I maintain a large position at the moment and have no intention to sell. The stock is very closely held, with the founders maintaining a large majority ownership.
Frank
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
While this stock maybe a good play for a trader who get in and out quickly, playing the volatility, if you buy Wellstone for long-term fundamentals you had best do your due diligence. Why?
Their patent clearly shows that their product is a "mechanical" filter -- in other words, it does very little to chemically select and remove carcinogens. What it primarily does is clog up the intake so you have increased pressure drop, which includes a decrease in nicotine. This is de facto what "light" cigarettes accomplished and were subsequently revealed as a fraudulent "safer" cigarette. Since smokers are addicted to nicotine, they will smoke more cigarettes, and in a more hazardous fashion, if you have mechanical filtration. Thus, such technologies are not safer.
Even if the science is difficult to grasp, answer this: why wouldn't Altria buy this product for billions of dollars? If the product were viable and used on brand equity products such as Marlboro, Philip Morris could bankrupt most of its competitors within a year or two. I can assure you that the majors have seen this product and dismissed it (thus the company's shift in emphasis to overseas sales). If they, the experts, had no faith, why would you consider this a long-term hold? Trading buy? Maybe, but be careful.
However I do really think this could run, i will try getting back in on an uptrend when i have available fudns. Good luck all
http://www.wellstonefilters.com
I've reviewed as much of Wellstone's documentation as I could get my hands on, including some detailed financial forms. Wellstone's filtering technology is chemical/mechanical. Their patented chemical may be incorporated into a cigarette via granules, or by coating traditional filters.
I quote from the site:
"...The composite filter, which removes 92-93% of tar, removes less than 10% of nicotine from tobacco..."
Nicotine is the chemical that is responsible for the pleasurable effects in smoking. They address issues such as drag, which is created when too heavy a filtration process is utilized. They can tailor this effect by adjusting the number of granules that are included in the filter. I am sure that they are very well aware of other filtering techniques, such as a carbon filter (which one of their competitors use).
Yes, this is a speculative play, and so was TASR, one year ago. I'm not stating that WLSF will climb the way that TASR did, but I do think it holds excellent world-wide potential, especially versus their competition.
In addition, WLSF is very closely held. The founders maintain an overwhelming majority of the shares float, and this will prevent entities from making any attempts at a takeover. I applaud them for maintaining this ownership, as they are the developers of the technology.
Definitely perform due diligence on this and any other security that are purchased/held. Best of luck to you and others.
If anyone has futher information on Wellstone, please post.
Cheers
------
quote:
Originally posted by Mech Filter:
I have posted on another site regarding this technology. I suggest you do alot of due diligence (and not just based on what they publish) when evaluating their long-term potential.
When they state their range of removal they are talking about almost purely mechanical filtration. They even had graphics on their website that demonstrated the nicotine pass-through was based on blend (i.e. higher nicotine blends) versus selective reduction. Please do not mistake the fact that just because they use a "chemical" compound, it doesn't mean they are creating selective chemical reduction. In fact, they are generally creating "mechanical" filtration. In simple terms, they are using starches as a sieve, and unfortunately these starches also remvoe nicotine. The company uses wording in its PR in a very effective way, so be careful. In addition, they recently admitted that they brought on their new scientist to achieve selective constituent reduction (the holy grail of harm reduction filters) -- i.e. they don't have it yet.
If they did, Altria would pony up so much money that the shareholders would flip in a minute. The reason they havent, and won't, is this technology is not what they claim...at least at this point. If you or anyone believes that it is, then I would suggest calling the company and asking for its biological test results (Ames, particularly strains TA98 and TA100) and TNC results (tar, nicotine and carbon monoxide). Also, if they have NRU (Neutral Red Uptake) results, which would show the cytotoxic results, those would be helpful. Distribute them, and I'll walk you through how to interpret them. My guess is that they won't release them. When people make claims but don't release results, it is suspicious.
That said, I think the stock is a good trading play for now.
Incase everyone hadn't spotted it, they issued a press release tonight (strange hour). Here's the link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040511/nytu240_1.html
Looks like they're going to move a little closer to the tobacco regions of the country for better exposure.
Cheers
-------
quote:
Originally posted by Mech Filter:
Geronimo,
.
.
.
That said, I think the stock is a good trading play for now.
We got news. Woohoo! :-)
I am not a basher, in fact a believer, just tired of all info and no contracts.
Cheers
______________
quote:
Originally posted by Marva18:
...
I am a bit cynical about the PR because I saw that several senior people had filed to sell some stock in the past few months. I haven't been able to confirm whether they did, but I recall seeing the application.
Again, not pointing fingers, but trying to get answers.
where did u see this application?
are u just bashing the stock? how come the name "Mech_Filter?" your on someother forums saying the exact same thing...how the filter is mechanical and so on? Care to explain?
About the relocation, they have a valid strategy. Moving to the tobacco regions will give them access to experienced resources from the area. Individuals that have worked in that industry for their entire lives. It will also give them closer contact with the firms that deal in that industry. I feel it's a good strategic move.
I believe that the industry is requesting selective filtration from them. If they can achieve this, then they are set.
Cheers
____________
quote:
Originally posted by Marva18:
This could be hugh except its hard o totally believe the PR's from the company.
They said over a month ago they would ship one refinement of the product in 30 days since the international community is demanding it. So where is it. Plus do thy officially have patents filed in all those countries they mention or is it all fluff.
also why do they need to move their headquarters, thats a hugh family upheavel unless they want to get out of town.I am not a basher, in fact a believer, just tired of all info and no contracts.
Far from bashing, I am providing an educated view of how harm reduction technologies work in theory and where this product sits based on publicly available information. If you want to know why, just read the previous posts. Bottom line, mechanical filtration is a filtration that impedes nicotine along with tar, just like a sieve. As a result, while it reduces carcinogens at face value, smokers have to compensate for the nicotine reduction by smoking more. Thus, by the time they have have reached their nicotine requirement they have also offset the carcinogen reduction through the consumption of additional cigarettes. If the company would release test results showing something different than what their patent implies and their previously posted test result analysis demonstrated, then there would be evidence to suggest a real harm reduction technology.
I have mentioned on a number of occasions that from a trading perspective this could be quite interesting. From a fundamentals perspective, if the product meets the claims, then it could be great. However, the company has a responsibility to support its claims and has not done so (e.g. where are the chemical and biological test results). I merely pointed that out. What you call "bashing" is what most would consider proper due diligence. The only errata would be that I believe I mistook a senior mgmt filing for share sales with another company's -- so, my apologies for that.
As for the name under which this is posted, it is an appropriate pseudonym. If I get involved in more of these forums then I'll use something less specific.
Well, everyone knows the high was 5.50. So one would think that when it get 'legs' again, it will at least come somewhere close to that, equal, or god willing, better! :-) I'm in at 1.45 p/shr, so I am willing to ride at least until I get a 20% return. When I sell, is relative to how the stock is moving, volume, news and trends. If they are all very positive, then I will hold for as long as they remain so, if they are somewhat postive, then I will take my 20% and move on. You can always buy back in.
P.S. I don't think you are a basher. :-)
I agree that the company needs to disclose more information about it's technology. We should all keep in mind that they are a very small firm, with limited resources at this point. I hope they do have an innovative technology to provide to the world. Not solely for the sake of the company's investors, but also for those individuals that find it nearly impossible to quit smoking.
Cheers
______
quote:
Originally posted by Mech Filter:
Stock Dude,
...
Need to get some real news and bad!
They need to send a release regarding the sample shipment ASAP!
We need some solid news, like that of an agreement, alliance, funding, etc. Until then it will remain in sleeper mode.
Cheers
Cheers
I must have forgotten to post regarding this topic. I would think that Wellstone is worth at least what one of their competitors is worth. I recall one of them bringing in roughly 120 million per year, and that's with technology that simply uses some type of carbon filtering, if I recall correctly. It was awhile back when I read up on the information, so I can't say it's completely accurate.
Wellstone is stating that their filtration method not only reduces tar and carcinogens, but maintains the nicotine levels found in the smoke. I don't think that their competitors can claim to do that. If so, this is a different breed of filtering ability. Yes, potential customers are waiting for selective filtering abilities. However, we have no idea as to what capabilities Wellstone's scientists have in the way of improving their technology. So far it seems pretty good, and will potentially get better.
All that said, I think it's worthwhile to get in on this stock now, and hold on to it. Yeah, there are traders around, hopping in and out, etc. I think this is a buy and hold issue, with huge potential returns for the long term investor. Wellstone's main issue now seems to be funding, but I don't think this will be a problem, especially with the potential customer base, and the wealth of corporate entities willing to provide them with some R&D backing.
I really can't come up with any numbers on P/E, or potential revenues, etc. I think that what was stated on Wellstone's site or documents is extremely conservative. They have to be, otherwise they would risk potential lawsuits for making bogus claims. As I see it, their filtering technology far surpasses whatever is available in the marketplace at the current time. Wouldn't one think that smokers would welcome a product that would help them out in any way, while allowing them to enjoy the effects of smoking? Numbers would be very difficult to conjure up. The technology has world-wide application. The market is immense, and Wellstone's costs would be extremely low, as they are looking to license, not manufacture. I'm sure this would be the preferred way to go, as filter production is an inherent part of cigarette manufacture. This would simply be an additional process in filter production.
Any thoughts on what I've stated? All opinions welcomed, of course.
Cheers
_________
quote:
Originally posted by Mech Filter:
On a slightly different note, I wanted to know what people think a company like this is worth (P/e, P/R, PEG, whatever multiple you want to use)? What if they acheive 25% selective reduction? 50%? 75%? Or more? Is this a multi-billion company at that point? People have mentioned "legs" on this stock if they perform -- just interested in how far people are willing to ride.
Thanks for the feedback. When I look at valuation for a company such as this it gets a little complicated. First, what type of company is this? A filter maker -- not quite, as the technology (assuming it works) would make it closer to a biotech/nrt-type company in terms of both multiples and accepted growth projections (both likely off a revenue line, if even that). If such a company develops brand equity in the manner of a Vector, then there is a reasonably comp out there but (i) Vector is only one comp and (ii) it does not have the same potency of harm reduction product (assuming the other works). It is also complicated by the business model -- does a filter company really want to get into cigarettes? The upside is that it is a lot easier to generate revenues/earnings, compared to filter-making which requires massive economies of scale. The downside: LIABILITY!
You can also value these on a trade sale basis by looking at the majors and trying to determine what incremental market share they can obtain by adopting the technology. Also, what would they pay to keep a competitor from having it?
Lastly, you can look at the social benefit (i.e. what are the health cost savings at various levels of implementation).
Personally I think such a company is sold before it breaks a US$500-700mm valuation. Buyer could be anyone, but at a certain point you need to change management and the original owners are going to want some return while their product is still hot. Patent or not, you never know when someone else can bring out a better product.
Geronimo...on licensing:
Interesting concept but sometimes dangerous as the big boys, and particularly companies in less sophisticated legal regimes, can really take advantage of you. It is almost impossible to monitor the volumes under such a license as a small company, particularly given the tremendous lack of transparency in tobacco company financials. That said it is possible...I'd still sell the thing, though, and get out. Too much headache to be in that industry. That said, an optimistic person might say that a successful harm reducing filter could become the the tobacco industry's Microsoft. 5.5 trillion cigarettes are sold each year -- one can make the math look quite good.
I agree with your assessment, and the fact that this is not a filter company. They may be biotech, or simply chemical, but not sure if it would stray into the medical NRT area. As long as the product isn't ingested into the body (or inhaled), then it shouldn't come under the control of the FDA. It all depends on how the product functions and whether any of it is passed on to the smoker. My thoughts at this time is that it isn't. It is simply a filtering technology.
Wellstone has made it pretty clear that their intention would be to license the product. It wouldn't make much sense for them to get into the production business. Filter companies are well-established and well-funded. What they could do, though, is produce the product/chemical, etc. that is inserted into the filters. This way they would have absolute control over the product. However much a filter manufacturer wants to insert into their filters is up to the filter manufacturer. No need for licensing agreements or anything of the sort, less headaches. The product could be manufactured by a third party as well, eliminating the need for Wellstone to set up their own manufacturing factilities.
Yes, this all hinges on whether the product is viable and selective, as is desired by the cigarette industry. I'm sure that more testing is warranted and is under way. I am a bit disappointed that news is very sproadic, but that's how it goes sometimes.
I do think the company would be hard to valuate at this point in time. If their product can deliver on the intial claims, it would have a very very large market to serve. Today there's a bit stir among the Cigarette manufacturers since some of the previous lawsuits are in the news and in the courts. I would think that cigarette manufacturers would be doing more to attempt to produce 'safer' products, although there is no safe cigarette.
True about the potential competition. If someone does bring out a similar product, one has to wonder how similar it could be without infringing on the patent(s). I think we are aways from that at the moment, though.
Thanks for the great input!
Cheers
Get a moveone Wellstone, we are waiting! :-)
Cheers
-------
quote:
Originally posted by Mech:Geronimo...on licensing:
Interesting concept but sometimes dangerous as the big boys, and particularly companies in less sophisticated legal regimes, can really take advantage of you. It is almost impossible to monitor the volumes under such a license as a small company, particularly given the tremendous lack of transparency in tobacco company financials. That said it is possible...I'd still sell the thing, though, and get out. Too much headache to be in that industry. That said, an optimistic person might say that a successful harm reducing filter could become the the tobacco industry's Microsoft. 5.5 trillion cigarettes are sold each year -- one can make the math look quite good.
If you haven't reviewed it, I recommend reading their 10K. Good reading, including statistics on the cigarette and filter industry. Here's the link to the 10K:
There are 78,989,400 shares outstanding.
From the 10K:
"...Management owns 54,600,000 shares, or 69% of the outstanding shares. Management is able to elect all the board of directors and otherwise control Wellstone and its operations, and other shareholders will have little, if any control over Wellstone's management. The concentration of control in management will discourage takeover attempts such as tender offers, and the purchase of shares by persons who wish to acquire control of Wellstone. Stockholders will likely not be able to benefit from a rise in share prices which usually accompanies hostile takeovers..."
Cheers
__________
quote:
Originally posted by Mech:
Does anyone know the free float of this company?
[This message has been edited by mr_geronimo (edited May 25, 2004).]
I had read through their financials but wasn't sure whether the non-management shares were truly free outstanding shares or just held by minority interests. Where I am going with this, and excuse my ignorance with regards to OTC trading rules, is I want to determine the number of shares that are registered to be bought or sold via the OTC. E.g. is a company with 10 million shares outstanding sells 10% of its company through an IPO then the free float would be 1 million shares.
Otherwise no news recently, eh?
I called their investor relations on Friday and left a message but have not received a return call. I'm going to try to call them again today, as I have some questions to ask.
They don't seem to be active in keeping shareholders informed of the progress, or lack thereof, on events.
The shares have experienced very low trading volume, so coupled with the lack of news, they are weakening. For those with some cash, it could be a buying opportunity. For those with the shares, it's a wait-and-see thing. Disappointing from my point of view, especially the lack of information from the company.
Let's see what I can dig up.
Cheers
---------
quote:
Originally posted by Mech:
...E.g. is a company with 10 million shares outstanding sells 10% of its company through an IPO then the free float would be 1 million shares.Otherwise no news recently, eh?
At this point, this stock is a hold, not a sell. Selling and taking losses on this stock is not the bright thing to do. This company is in its infacy. It will need more a lot more time to get moving.
Once they get that first contract though, watch out!
They previously announced that they'd be shipping test samples out to tobacco companies, filter manufacturers, etc. I had asked if this had been done already. They responded that it hadn't, because they are waiting on the completion of transfer agreements with the particular entities. This is to protect the ownership rights of Wellstone, and definitely needs to be in place for their sake.
I asked about the lack of PR from the company. They said they've been cutting back on that because there isn't any real news they can provide. A lot of what is going on now is confidential, so it's better to put out good news, instead of putting out news just for the sake of issuing a press release. I agree, although it is contributing to weakness on the stock.
I asked about the previously-mentioned relocation of their offices to a tobacco-growing region. They couldn't really comment on this (when, where, etc.). This is understood, and I consider the relocation a good strategic move.
I made a suggestion as to how to approach the product licensing. Rather, instead of licensing, produce the filtering agent and sell it to the filter producers, etc. This way the licensing issue is out of the way. I was told that they are definitely considering this as an option.
I got a feeling that they will be issuing some news in the not-too-distant future, but we'll have to wait and see. My thoughts are all positive about this company, and the potential for the product. Their competition has nothing on them (charcoal filters with cow's blood?... please).
The stock has been trading down, day-after-day, on lack of news and volume. It should only be of concern to those individuals that got in a significantly higher prices, and only on the price basis. When a stock falls on lack of news and low volume there really shouldn't be any concern. This is a baby of a company, strictly R&D. I have a feeling they will be signing significant agreements in the future and shareholders will benefit from having been patient and well-invested.
I continue to have significant faith in the potential of their product and the company. Management is maintaining tight control on the shares, and this would indicate to me that they have every confidence that things will work out well in the long run. They don't want to give up control or the potential for huge returns when things get cranking.
Hang in there dudes, and remember, the weakness is not based on news or events, just simply lack of news and events.
Cheers
Who has the most to lose with this company? The founders and majority shareholders, of course. It's a very tight-knit group, and they seem to be managing things very well (being very careful).
With individuals like that at the helm we are provided with the best possible outcome from the development of their products.
Cheers
_________
quote:
Originally posted by my$0.02:
Mr_G,
Excellent post, very informative...
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040608/nytu155_1.html
[This message has been edited by mr_geronimo (edited June 08, 2004).]
Sec filing for forward split!
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/...000053.txt
Link isn't working now: (hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...)
*******************************************
WELLSTONE FILTERS, INC.
712 Kitchawan Road
Ossining, New York 10562
INFORMATION STATEMENT
Mailing Date: June 12, 2004
We are not asking you for a proxy and you are
requested not to send us a proxy
General
This Information Statement is furnished to the holders of Common Stock,
$.001 par value per share (the "Common Stock"), of Wellstone Filters, Inc. (the
"Company") on behalf of the Company in connection with a proposed amendment to
the Certificate of Incorporation of the Company to increase the number of
authorized shares of Common Stock from 80,000,000 up to 300,000,000 and an
accompanying five-for-one forward stock split of the Common Stock. This
amendment has already been approved by the consent of persons holding 39,000,000
Shares, which is a majority of the 79,064,095 outstanding shares. YOU ARE NOT
BEING ASKED FOR A PROXY NOR TO VOTE ON THIS MATTER. THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR
INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
The cost of this Information Statement will be borne by the Company.
Record Date
The close of business on June 2, 2004, which is the date of the consent
action by shareholders approving the amendment to its articles, was fixed as the
record date pursuant to Section 228 of the Delaware General Corporation Law
("DGCL").
The voting securities of the Company are the shares of its Common
Stock, of which 79,064,095 shares were issued and outstanding as of June 2,
2004. All outstanding shares of Common Stock are entitled to one vote on each
matter submitted for voting at the Meeting.
Beneficial Ownership of Common Stock
Principal Shareholders, Directors and Officers. The following table
sets forth the beneficial ownership of the Company's Common Stock as of June 2,
2004 by each person known to the Company to own more than five percent (5%) of
the Company's Common Stock and by each of the Company's current directors, and
by all directors and officers of the Company as a group. The table has been
prepared based on information provided to the Company by each shareholder.
<PAGE>
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
Amount of
Name and Beneficial Percent of
Address Ownership(1) Class
<S> <C> <C> <C>
Jere E. Goyan(3) 125,000 *
Learned Jeremiah Hand(2) 39,000,000 69.1%
Carla Cerami Hand, MD,PhD(2) 39,00,000 69.1%
Anthony Cerami, PhD(2) 7,000,000 12.4%
All officers and directors
as a group (3 persons) 46,125,000 81.2%
</TABLE>
(1) As used in this table, "beneficial ownership" means the sole or shared power
to vote, or to direct the voting of, a security, or the sole or shared
investment power with respect to a security (i.e., the power to dispose of, or
to direct the disposition of a security). The address of this person is c/o the
Company.
(2) The business address of each of these persons is 712 Kitchawan Road,
Ossining, New York, 10562. Ms. Cerami Hand and Mr. Learned Jeremiah Hand are
wife and husband. The 39,000,000 shares listed as beneficially owned by Mr.
Learned Jeremiah Hand include 33,500,000 shares which are controlled by Carla
Cerami Hand, as stated below. Mr. Hand disclaims beneficial
ownership of such 33,500,000 shares. Ms. Cerami is the sole shareholder of
Cerami Consulting and the shares listed as held by her in the above table
include 5,600,000 shares held of record by Cerami Consulting, which is
controlled by her, 5,500,000 shares held via a trust, and 5,500,000 shares
controlled by Learned Jeremiah Hand. She disclaims beneficial ownership of the
5,500,000 shares controlled by Learned Jeremiah Hand. Such 1,100,000 shares
stated as controlled by Mr. Hand are held through a family limited partnership
controlled by him. Titratable Holdings, Ltd. Dr. Anthony
Cerami is the father of Carla Cerami Hand. Pending the increase in authorized
common stock, one of these shareholders may exchange his or her shares for the
convertible preferred equivalent of their shares.
(3) Includes options to purchase 125,000 shares of common stock.
As of June 2, 2004, there were 140 shareholders of record.
<PAGE>
PROPOSAL NO. 1:
AMENDMENT OF CERTIFICATE OF INCORPORATION
INCREASE OF AUTHORIZED SHARES OF COMPANY'S COMMON STOCK AND
FORWARD STOCK SPLIT
The Shareholders holding a majority of the common stock have
approved an amendment to Article 4 of the Company's Certificate of Incorporation
to increase the number of authorized shares of the Company's Common Stock from
80,000,000 up to 300,000,000 and to effect a five for one forward stock split of
the common stock. The increase in authorized and the forward stock split will be
effected together.
The Company's Certificate of Incorporation presently authorizes
the issuance of 80,000,000 shares of Common Stock having $0.001 par value, of
which 79,064,295 shares were outstanding at the close of business on June 2,
2004.
The Board of Directors has proposed the increase in authorized
common shares in connection with a five-for-one forward split of the common
stock to provide the Board of Directors with greater flexibility in the event
the Board of Directors determines that it is in the best interest of the Company
to issue additional shares to raise capital or to effect an acquisition.
Under the laws of the State of Delaware, authorized, but
unissued and unreserved, shares may be issued for such consideration (not less
than par value) and purposes as the Board of Directors may determine without
further action by the shareholders. The issuance of such additional
shares may, under certain circumstances, result in the dilution of the equity
or earnings per share of the existing shareholders.
Although the Board of Directors has no present intent to do so,
the unissued and authorized shares of the Company could be issued as defense
to an attempted takeover of the Company and may have an anti-takeover effect.
Management is not aware of any effort on the part of any
person to acquire control of the Company.
The additional shares of Common Stock authorized by this
proposed amendment will, if and when issued, have the same rights and privileges
as the shares of Common Stock currently authorized. Holders of shares of
Common Stock of the Company have no preemptive rights.
The amendment will be filed with an effective date with the
Delaware Secretary of State no less than twenty days after the mailing of the
Information Statement.
------------------
IMHO - GLTA - Reductio Ad Absurdum
[This message has been edited by DueDiligence (edited June 08, 2004).]
The real potential for Wellstone will be after the tobacco manufacturers complete their testing and hopefully return favorable results. If their filtering technology proves to do what they say it will, we might see it incorporated into every cigarette made. What smoker wouldn't want a safer cigarette while maintaining the pleasurable effects of smoking? This is buy and hold long term kids. Good luck to all!
Cheers
___________
quote:
Originally posted by blue_in_MI:
...not sure about explode, but my guess is will be good to get WLSF back to $1.15 or so tomorrow. future PR's about orders - then will skyrocket for sure. we will see, i am rooting for them... [/B]
As for the 5-1 split, I honestly wasn't even aware of this. That to me is the best news I heard yet. :-)
Does anyone know when it will take place?
Great posts by the way! Most have been extremely informative.
Thanks!
Favorable? Unfavorable? Remember, the individuals with the most to lose are the majority shareholders/founders/owners. If we get diluted, they get diluted.
They seem to know what they are doing. I think this is a move in the right direction. It allows them to use the power of the shares for acquisitions in the future. The current market cap is around 75million. The potential that Wellstone has can go into the billions. This will be but a blip on the radar in the future.
Cheers
While I'm always on guard against dilution (take a look at the WNMI train wreck yesterday to know why), I'm not particularly worried in WLSF's case. They are going to need some cash to prep for any kind of production, also it's not clear at what rate they will actually issue the new shares. I dunno, I have a small amount of shares but basically I'm going to sit on them awhile and see what happens. The company is so insider-heavy that it's not in their best interest to tank the stock price. It is *strongly* in their best interest to work out a deal with some tobbaco companies - insiders would literally be leaving hundreds of millions on the table if they didn't follow through. That's a lot of cash, even Bill Gates might miss that. I think they're going to give it a serious shot to work out some deals. We will see.
I kind of look at this stock as an upside/downside thing. Potential downside, maybe they tank to .40 in 4 weeks if no news yet for a 50% loss. Potential upside though is perhaps 10x short-term to $4-5 range, if they announce a deal. with a small amount of shares, I'll take those odds and hold awhile, should be interesting.
I was way off with my presumption!
Look at Wellstone go!
Woo Hoo! Up 37% to 1.16 as of the time of this post.
It is clearly not a simple "mechanical" filtration process. It is a combined chemical/mechanical process (a purely mechanical filtering process would be akin to passing coffee through a strainer to remove the grounds... smoke passed through activated charcoal is akin to a chemical/mechanical filtering technique, as agents in smoke would chemically be bound to the activated charcoal, not simply physically trapped, as with a strainer effect).
The scientists involved in the creation of Wellstone's filtering technology has significant experience in patent applications and research (as can be witnessed by researching their filings). From all that I have read the product is a very positive step in the significant reduction of carcinogens and tar in tobacco smoke, while allowing Nicotine to remain behind.
My thoughts, buy and hold this stock long term, and reap the rewards. Contrasting points of view are welcomed.
Cheers
G, hope you are well. See you have been doing some homework. I need to elaborate on something. First, this stock has room to run, but still a trading play.
I feel the need to clarify a few things, though. First, they do have minor chemical reactions in the process (i.e. so if you want to be perfectly technical it is chemical/mechanical filtration). However, true chemical filtration would be if you took an existing filter, added a chemical in terms of 5% of its weight or so, then your chemical in turn reduced mutagens/carcinogens by 10, 20, or an even higher percentage. Their 25-50mg filters do indeed lower tar but they primarily do it by TRAPPING TAR AND NICOTINE.
Proof? Go to their website and drill into their top-line test results. You will see the following
CONTROL (units in mg/cig)
Tar 13.69
Nicotine 1.056
WELLSTONE RESULTS (same units)
Tar 5.66
Nicotine 0.464
So, their own tests show that tar is reduced 59% and nicotine is reduced 56%. The ratio changes only slightly. I.e., there is not real gain here in removing tar per unit of nicotine consumed by a smoker (i.e. the same problem as with Light cigarettes). The fact that water is reduced so much also adds to the argument of mechanical filtration. What is interesting is the reduction of carbon monoxide, which could be a legitimate benefit of the product.
Now, from this we still don't know if it reduces cancer-risk. Why? They have no legitimate test results published that demonstrate this. They need to perform Ames tests, which would demonstrate the overall/total mutagenicity of the tar, and publish the results. Keep the focus on total carcinogenicity...why? The reality in harm reduction technologies is that removing a single carcinogen can often increase total carcinogenicity? Why? No one knows because know one knows the exact formular behand the toxic cocktail in cigarette smoke. Only that it can kill.
So what about these tests? These tests are not too expensive and easy to perform. Makes one wonder why they haven't published the tests results. UNTIL THEY DO, ALL THEIR RESULTS SHOW IS THEY HAVE A PRODUCT SIMILAR TO LIGHTS, WITH PERHAPS A DECENT CARBON MONOXIDE REDUCTION.
Lastly, their product does not selectively allow nicotine through. What they refer to in their documentation is adjusting nicotine...in the tobacco industry this is called "loading", and can be done by using higher nicotine tobacco or alkalining agents such as ammonia. However, the degree to which they refer in their diagrams would not be allowed and they (cleverly?) do not indicate whether this is ionized or free nicotine (the latter is what smokers enjoy -- the former what is generally produced by incomplete tobacco combustion...thus the alkalining agents).
Hope this helps. Not trying to deride your good research but this is perhaps the most opaque and deceptive industry in the world, particularly as played by the majors. Getting to the truth takes a lot of time...
That said, I'd buy today. But not on a fundamental basis...
As always, excellent feedback. I agree with you on the publishing of the test results. I also understand how they might want to keep things under wraps, especially at this stage. I requested test results when I called investor relations, but didn't even slightly expect I would get something. Can't hurt to ask, though. :-)
The true test has already begun. With the shipment of samples to tobacco companies, the testing is out of the hands of Wellstone and the independent test labs. Tobacco companies will toss their troops on the samples and will make their own decisions on the efficacy of the product. Their actions will speak louder than any words. No one will be able to put one over on them. If they feel they have a product that's a contender, they will sign on.
The majority owners/scientists, etc. feel they have something solid on their hands. They surely must know they aren't going to pull one over on the tobacco companies. It seems they have a lot of experience in research and development as well (from the previous patent filings). In lieu of published test results, their confidence and persistence must count for something. For now, this is what I'm going with. However, the true test will be based on the actions returned from the companies that received test samples. Not saying that people should dive in, but it wouldn't hurt to hold some shares.
Best of luck to all... and here's hoping to something that helps reduce tobacco-related deaths and illnesses.
Cheers
The latest news that came out earlier this week has most definitely helped.
Hopefully the support will form at 1.05. I Hate seeing this stock under a dollar.
One needs to do what is best for one. My view is that a stock split is basically transparent. Yeah, it dilutes the per-share value, but you are also getting five shares for every one you have. It balances out.
The real question is what will the company do with the increase in outstanding shares? Will they dole them out as stock candy? I hope not. Will they use them to acquire another company? Could be. If they do, I truly hope it would be a company that would add value to Wellstone. Also, the higher the value of the stock, the more leverage it provides. So using a weak stock to buyout another company doesn't work out very well. Perhaps they are doing this at a very early stage, and perhaps they are preparing for what they consider a significant rampup in the per-share price? Then their stock would have a lot of leverage.
This is all speculation, mind you. What am I doing? I'm holding on. Opportunities like these are not short-term investments. Things take time. How they work out is another matter altogether. You need to do what is best for you, though. :-)
Best of luck.
Cheers