ebola was studied by both US and Russian scientists for biowarfare and basically found to be unfit becuase it is too effiient at killing. the reason the world hasn't seen a full-blown ebola epidemic before now is that it kills too fast. In order to spread, a pathogen needs to have some "infectious" time between infection and "immobilization" of it's victim in order to spread. Something has changed. I don't beleive most of what they are saying on TV, but i do know that the "best health care system in the world" is not up to this challenge like most Americans want to beleive.
Posted by Pagan on :
Ahhhh....fear mongering.
Posted by glassman on :
yeah....
for the record, you can repost this in say six months. we'll see then if i am fear mongering or being pragmatic..
fact is? ebola killed too fast for it to spread effectively just ten years ago.. the Soviets and the US (at Plum Island and other more secreetive labs) studied it intensively cuz it's a good killer. something is different now and i am not in position to know exaclty what it is that's dieffernt.
should you be afraid? i dunno do YOU frequently come in contact with sick peoples bodily fluids/ i don't - i'm not worried about myself, but i also know ofr afact that APHIS (USDA enforcemnt branch) just went and completely flunked the CDC for being carelss in their daily operations. This is real test, this is not a drill and we are NOT prepared like people want to beleive we are. You can take that statement and do what you want with it. The planet is due for a pandemic anyway, ebola is not likely to be the next pandemic, it will most likely be a swine/bird flu hybrid....
Posted by glassman on :
my wife was working with the mosquito that carries West Nile Virus beofre WNV cameto the US. She made several major breakthroughs that coincided with the arrival of WNV. Instead of supporting her research and allowing her to follow those break throughs, the politicians got involved and redirected thier buddies into the projects. My wife has not been ALLOWED by directive to work with skeeters since. WNV has not been slowed down in th eleast by the current researchers adn people die regualrly from it. Could my wife have stoped it? NO! i'm not saying that. But what i am saying is that when the media gets ahold of this stuff, and the money starts to flow, the politics takes over and the real research gets buried. Ebola is a big unknown.
Vector. The natural reservoir for Ebola is unknown. Epidemiologists have tested bats, monkeys, spiders and ticks for the virus, but have not been able to acquire definitive data. Common factors indicate that the natural reservoir is part of rural Africa, and CDC tests have shown that 10% of all Asian and African monkeys have antibodies to filoviruses. However, because the virus is as pathogenic in nonhuman primates as it is in humans, it is highly unlikely that monkeys themselves are a reservoir. It is speculated that persistent mammalian infection may help maintain the virus in nature, but that the natural reservoir is more likely to be a long-lived arthropod associated with the monkeys.
Secondary spread of the disease is via contact with infected persons or contact with blood, secretions, or excretions of infected persons. However, contact between viremic persons results in infection rates of approximately 10% ---such contact is not an efficient form of viral transmission. Infection via contact during the incubation period is rare. In contrast, nosocomial transmission is extremely dangerous. In all epidemics, nosocomial transmission, via contaminated syringes or needles, was responsible for a significant number of deaths.
In a small number of cases of the Zaire and Sudan strains, patients did not have contact with the blood or body fluids of other viremic patients. In these few cases, it is possible that the patients contracted the virus via aerosol transmission. Although the Zaire and Sudan strains are not usually passed from human to human by aerosol, the Reston strain is transmitted via small-particle aerosol between monkeys and from monkeys to humans. In addition, Ebola Zaire and Marburg virus have been isolated from the alveoli of infected monkeys.
Viruses can persist in injection equipment, multidose medicine vials, or in dried material. The virus can also continue to be shed in the patient's semen for 3 or 4 months after symptoms disappear. In one case, the virus was isolated from the anterior chamber fluid of a uveitis patient.
we don't know ANYTHING about it's vectors and reservoirs and you can ignore 90% of what they try to tell you on TV.....
read this line again;
the natural reservoir is more likely to be a long-lived arthropod associated with the monkeys
that's waht we are really up against. most likely a bug that bites monkeys and people....
if i was really interested in fear mongering? i would suggest that bed-bugs (which are endemic to Texas now) might be transmitting it between people... watch the media run with that Posted by Relentless. on :
Bowler's death rate has dropped to about 50% making it a very good population reducer.
I king of doubt it will gain any real traction here in the states, but Africa will soon be emptied.
Posted by Relentless. on :
This was calculated sometime back in March of this year:
trypanosis from the tsetse fly? that's some screwed up stuff too.
i have to agree with you relentless, ebola is likely to take a huge toll in Africa and we may not be able to do ANYTHING about it.
something is differnt this time, and i don't think it's only faster transportaion of humans...
maybe it lasts longer outside the body? or there's a new minor vector that bypasses human to human contact. i just hope that it's not bugs that are differnt cuz we really have a hard time contorlling them. DDT would have to be re-considered for short time if they are... since it's use was greatly restricted? it still works really really well...
fear-mongering? anybody here plannign on going tourist to Africa? I sure ain't.
Posted by Relentless. on :
Yup, Africa is pretty much a write off at this point. And largely due to themselves. The locals have done nothing to prevent it and most don't believe it's real. Of course the nations affected have an average IQ less than 70... So that makes sense.
When I'm thinking about the possible impact to the states and things to be worried about, I tend not to really worry about the virus, but more the gubment's over-reaction to it.
Thus far they've been predictable in their reaction to the first case. They've been bungling inept and directionless. Now they're in full cover-up mode while issuing key-words and talking points to the MSM. A few steps later will be the over-reaction as they try to lock down entire towns or neighborhoods.
Just today count the number of times you hear the phrase "not airborne" on any news show.
The problem is they've already admitted it is in fact airborne to a degree. It just required a larger droplet than say the flu or common cold does.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by Relentless.: This was calculated sometime back in March of this year:
i hadn't seen that in speicifc but i did take notice early on when ebola didn't burn itself out like it usually does...
Someone on the other site I hang out on put it together. I ignored it at first... But then I happened across it again in late September and holy crap it was right in tune with the current numbers and has now exceeded the totals for October even ten days in...
Posted by glassman on :
so whoever wrote this up saw the .53 ratio of increase month to month.. i wonder where they got that number from so early?
Posted by glassman on :
whoever wrote that up may want to try thier hand at this one... i passed on it so i'm willing to share
ARPA Forecasting Chikungunya Challenge
TAGS: Computer Science/Information Technology, Scientific American, Math/Statistics, Nature, Public Good, Global Health, Life Sciences, RTP AWARD: See details | DEADLINE: 2/01/15 | ACTIVE SOLVERS: 387 | POSTED: 8/15/14
DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) seeks methods to accurately forecast the spread of chikungunya virus in the Caribbean, and North, Central, and South America.
This Challenge has a special award structure with awards of $150,000 and $100,000 for the top two overall Solvers and four honorable mention awards of $50,000 each. In addition, top Solvers in each Methodology Category (data, robustness, applicability, presentation, and computation) may win $10,000. The top six overall Solvers will be invited to DARPA for the Program Finale Meeting where they will participate in an interactive meeting to share best practices, collaborate, and facilitate continuing Solver community cohesion.
This is a Reduction-to-Practice Challenge that requires written documentation and multiple submissions of forecasts for the virus’ spread. Additionally, as a Prodigy Challenge an online leaderboard will be available to track Solver performance.
quote:Originally posted by glassman: so whoever wrote this up saw the .53 ratio of increase month to month.. i wonder where they got that number from so early?
It was an R1.7 to start with if I remember... There's been revisions but that was the one I saved. R2.x is what is being currently assumed I think.
Posted by glassman on :
i caccklacked it in my usual dylsexic way that makes me more artist than scientist
.53 comes out to be 1.8 if you invert it...
Posted by Relentless. on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: i caccklacked it in my usual dylsexic way that makes me more artist than scientist
.53 comes out to be 1.8 if you invert it...
Yeah that works.. I'm just using the terms the CDC uses.
Either way the accuracy thus far leads to some reflection looking forward.
The problem I see with the calculations is it's not a static environment. Meaning assuming the infection rate will be the same as it is in Africa? Silly.
The same could be said for much of Europe.
I would assume that as it continues in Africa the infection rate would jump over 2, possibly over 3. Europe and the US will barely get over 1 at the peak (which has yet to come).
The real concern, as far as the virus is concerned, is if or when Mexico gets it.
With idiot Bammy's open borders/Dreamers BS, Mexico could be the big issue.
Posted by glassman on :
Mexico is a serious concern, i'm most concerned that it could be used by terrorists. The "experts" keep getting on TV and telling what it *can't do* but they are not nearly as expert on this as they should be IMO. this commitment to "open borders" is not just Obama the Bush and the Clintons were too...
different motivations same results....
It all looked so easy int eh movies huh? Send in Dustin Hoffman in his rubber suit and he'll put the stupid politicians in their place? sorry, this time it's not fiction.
Posted by glassman on :
one other thing? the cost per patient of ebola in the USA is going blow people minds when they find out... the cost of disposable suits adn decon of evrything they've been in contact with is going to be very high.
Posted by Relentless. on :
There's been rumors in the conspiracy community that IS will attempt to hijack the virus.. I'm not so sure considering the main IS goal is to do what they're paid to do.. Get the US a reason to invade Syria.
If they are fingered for using it, then the CIA is behind it.
I'm thinking of this situation in more of an organic way. The virus at this point is a natural expansion which is why the math has worked out thus far.
As always, I could be completely wrong.
Posted by Relentless. on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: one other thing? the cost per patient of ebola in the USA is going blow people minds when they find out... the cost of disposable suits adn decon of evrything they've been in contact with is going to be very high.
sht, not just that, but wait till all the health care workers quit.
Today during the CDC presser the guy said all of that hospital's ER services has been shut down due to staffing problems. Now they didn't go into the why, but there are two options - They all caught it They all quit.
It won't have to go very long before every nurse out there has to choose between her/his career and their kids.
Again, it's not the virus that concerns me.. It's the reaction to it.
Posted by glassman on :
here's a perfect example of why we are not really prepared to deal with real life scenarios in the US. i have no idea why this person thinks she is exempt form the basic rules, but int he last decade i have persoanlly witnessed too many Govt "officials" who behaved the same way to have any faith in our response to ebola.
Dr. Nancy Snyderman spotted at New Jersey restaurant during Ebola quarantine, draws health department crackdown The New Jersey Health Department issued a mandatory quarantine after NBC reporter Dr. Nancy Snyderman was reportedly seen getting takeout at a Hopewell eatery. The NBC News crew was placed in voluntary quarantine for 21 days after cameraman Ashoka Mukpo was stricken with Ebola in Liberia. BY Jason Molinet NEW YORK DAILY NEWS Monday, October 13, 2014, 1:41 AM
granted she is not a govt official, but the attitude is the same. She thinks she's a privileged character You do what we say and we do what we wanna do.....
this is not a drill people!
Posted by glassman on :
it's not common knowledge that more people die each year from Hospital Acquired Infections (HAI) than drug OD's and car wreck and gunshots COMBINED. This is normal everyday infection rates that happen in hospitals even though they are always supposedly on guard for this.... Ebola being what it is just underscores the problem we already had before it got here.
The CDC healthcare-associated infection (HAI) prevalence surveyExternal Web Site Icon provides an updated national estimate of the overall problem of HAIs in U.S. hospitals. Based on a large sample of U.S. acute care hospitals, the survey found that on any given day, about 1 in 25 hospital patients has at least one healthcare-associated infection. There were an estimated 722,000 HAIs in U.S acute care hospitals in 2011. About 75,000 hospital patients with HAIs died during their hospitalizations. More than half of all HAIs occurred outside of the intensive care unit.
Hospital-acquired infections dramatically increase trauma patients' risk of in-hospital death and hospital stay Research Activities, August 2011, No. 372
Hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) are among the top five leading causes of death in the United States, striking 4.5 of every 100 patients admitted to the hospital. A new study finds that trauma patients who develop HAIs during treatment have up to six times the in-hospital mortality rate than similar patients without HAIs. It found that women were 30 percent less likely to have HAIs than men (adjusted OR [AOR] = 0.70; 1 is equal odds). Compared with patients hospitalized for blunt trauma, patients whose trauma was caused by a motor vehicle accident had 25 percent greater odds of developing an HAI, while those suffering from pedestrian trauma had 48 percent great odds; gunshot wound, 28 percent greater odds; and stab wound, 74 percent greater odds.
Among the HAIs, patients with sepsis had nearly six times higher risk of hospital death than uninfected trauma patients. Patients with other HAIs had 1.5 to nearly twice the risk of hospital death than trauma patients without HAIs. In addition, trauma patients with HAIs had approximately 2- to 2.5-fold higher health care costs and approximately 2-fold longer hospital stays than uninfected trauma patients.
Posted by Relentless. on :
Moral of the story.. Don't go to hospitals.
Seems to be a possible case in Kansas City undergoing testing.
The news is going nuts over this stuff trying to hype it up.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by Relentless.: Moral of the story.. Don't go to hospitals.
Seems to be a possible case in Kansas City undergoing testing.
The news is going nuts over this stuff trying to hype it up.
how long will it be before people are begging to have martial law?
Posted by Relentless. on :
They're already calling for it without the wit to understand what it is.
Just wait till the number of cases hits a dozen.
Posted by glassman on :
2nd ebola health care giver tests positive in TX. we were not up to the task last week.
Posted by glassman on :
Lab samples in teh Texas hospital were sent thru the tube system? wow... if this is true, expect a major outbreak.
Posted by Bob Frey on :
Getting scary!
Posted by Relentless. on :
quote:Originally posted by Bob Frey: Getting scary!
Yes considering the complete ineptitude displayed by everyone involved.
Time to stock up on everything.
Posted by Relentless. on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: Lab samples in teh Texas hospital were sent thru the tube system? wow... if this is true, expect a major outbreak.
Not to mention all of the waste stacked to the ceiling.
Then Ebolanurse 2 figured it would be a great idea to go zipping on up to Ohio a day before being diagnosed.
This ends badly.
Posted by glassman on :
that little jaunt was not acceptable....
Posted by raybond on :
Confirmation of a second, unidentified health care worker infected with the Ebola virus in the United States within a two-week span has raised questions about the manner in which public health officials have tackled the disease since it reached the mainland last month.
The nurse, who counted among the nearly 100 medical professionals who cared for Ebola patient zero Thomas Eric Duncan, reported a fever on Tuesday and stayed in an isolation unit at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas. The next day, health officials announced the positive test results, which came three days after a nurse who spent hours with Duncan tested positive for Ebola.
While the most recent case has added to the frenzy among Americans fearful of an Ebola outbreak similar to what has unfolded in West Africa, officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) say that the subsequent infections didn’t take them by surprise, especially since nearly 100 doctors, nurses, and assistants treated Duncan for 10 days.
That hasn’t stopped some health care workers, many of whom stood on the front lines in the days since Duncan arrived in the U.S., from questioning and critiquing the steps that health officials have taken to protect them as they treat the Ebola-stricken. During a conference call with reporters on Wednesday, Deborah Burger, the president of National Nurses United, recounted instances during which nurses at Presbyterian Hospital treated Duncan for days in an open space in the emergency room under constantly changing protocols and without sufficient protective gear.
“Were the protocols breached? The nurses say there were no protocols,” Burger told reporters, refusing to identify those nurses but maintaining they “were in a position to know” what occurred at the hospital.
Other allegations nurses made, according to Burger, included the contamination of the hospital specimen delivery system with the Ebola patient’s lab samples. Nurses also said that medical professionals didn’t dispose of hazardous waste expediently. The conversation took place hours after CDC director Thomas Frieden acknowledged that the agency should have played more of a direct role in responding to the first Ebola infection.
That’s why federal officials recently unveiled plans to dispatch a newly assembled response team to any hospital in the country that has a confirmed case of Ebola. Some of the world’s leading experts on Ebola have also converged on Dallas, including two nurses from Emory University Hospital in Atlanta who safely cared for Ebola patients and will train hospital staff on infection control and proper use of protective gear.
“I wish we had put a team like this on the ground the day the patient, the first patient, was diagnosed,” Frieden said at a news conference Tuesday. “That might have prevented this infection. But we will do that from today onward with any case, anywhere in the U.S.”
But some think that the CDC should go further to contain the disease which experts say has a 70 percent death rate and could infect more than 10,000 people worldwide before the end of the year. Recommendations include transporting Ebola patients to the four hospitals — each located in Georgia, Maryland, Nebraska, and Montana — with special isolation units, as well as equipping medical professional with more protective suits and hands-on training.
Posted by Upside on :
A number of years ago I had to pick up a friends Uncle at the airport. Got to talking to him on the way back and it turns out he was a researcher for the CDC. This was during the height of the AIDS scare so I asked him about it. He claimed that in spite of all the press hoopla the CDC wasn't all that concerned about AIDS simply because of the methods of transmission, you had to almost try to get it.
He went on to describe a scenario much like we're seeing today. He claimed that something like this was the CDC's greatest fear, an exotic, previously localized virus, or a yet unseen virus breaking out of its boundaries and spreading to more populated and modernized areas. He also said the CDC believed that once something like this hit our shores it would already be too late, containment would be impossible.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by Upside: A number of years ago I had to pick up a friends Uncle at the airport. Got to talking to him on the way back and it turns out he was a researcher for the CDC. This was during the height of the AIDS scare so I asked him about it. He claimed that in spite of all the press hoopla the CDC wasn't all that concerned about AIDS simply because of the methods of transmission, you had to almost try to get it.
He went on to describe a scenario much like we're seeing today. He claimed that something like this was the CDC's greatest fear, an exotic, previously localized virus, or a yet unseen virus breaking out of its boundaries and spreading to more populated and modernized areas. He also said the CDC believed that once something like this hit our shores it would already be too late, containment would be impossible.
it may be possble to contain it (here) still. we'll know in the next few days....
here's the timeline on Duncan (or patient 0)
Sept 19: Duncan flies out of Monrovia, Liberia
Sept 20: Lands in Dallas, Texas, after changing
Sept 24: Duncan starts experiencing symptoms
Sept 25: Goes to Texas Health Presbyterian hospital in Dallas - but is sent home
Sept 25-27: Symptoms worsen at home
Sept 28: Duncan taken to hospital after vomiting. CDC warned of possible Ebola case
Sept 29: Beset by projectile vomiting and diarrhea, Duncan asks to be put in a diaper
Sept 30: CDC confirms Ebola diagnosis
Oct 1: Sepsis sets in - but Duncan tries to stay upbeat, asking to watch a movie. He asks to eat solid food, but changes his mind.
Oct 2: He asks for food, eats a few saltine crackers and a mouthful of Sprite. But blood is appears in his urine; he is given stronger drugs
Oct 3: Doctors request experimental drug brincidofovir as Duncan keeps worsening
Oct 4: Duncan has multiple organ failure. New drug arrives and he is given it
Oct 6: Duncan's family, including his mother, come to visit him. His face is described as 'like a mask', some say he looks dead already
Oct 7: Family continue to watch Duncan via close-circuit cameras
Oct 8: Early in the morning Duncan's heartrate slows to less than 50 beats per minute.
At 7:51am he is pronounced dead
we aren't sure when he was exposed, but i tlooks like it takes about a week for ebola to get goin'
we don't know when the nurses got exposed so it's not possible to get an exact time.....
Posted by Relentless. on :
The incubation period is fairly well documented at this point. Somewhere between 5 - 21 days before symptoms emerge. There has within the last day or so there is some talk of it perhaps being longer than that in some cases.
At this point we are dealing with a new, never before seen, Ebola. So who really knows?
Posted by Upside on :
And the nurse that flew from Cleveland to Dallas had a low grade fever, 99.5 I think I read, when she boarded the plane. Gee, I wonder if maybe she coughed/sneezed into her hand or wiped a watery eye before handing her bags over to the baggage handler. Or bought a latte and handed a 10 spot to the airport Starbucks employee.
It's chit like that that's going to expose the world when the real Stephen King like killer virus comes along. My guess is that Ebola is going to be contained and eventually disappear like it has in the past. Look to the corona viruses as the ones that will eventually take us out.
Posted by Relentless. on :
Yes.. The CDC said.. Mild fever.. Sure why not.. We were bored anyways.
Posted by Upside on :
We could be fugged. It's almost time to go live in a school bus down by the river. No human contact sounds like a good thing to me.
Posted by Relentless. on :
Yup, me too.
Posted by Upside on :
No human contact? Sounds like a dream vacation to me.
Posted by Relentless. on :
Crap.. I'm going to have to take the wife and kids with me..
Sounding like less of a vacation all the time.
Posted by glassman on :
i'm not going to get worried until ebola gives tha patient a taste for brains.
Posted by Relentless. on :
It's almost as if the administration is doing everything in its power to spread a panic (come to think of it, when is the last time there was any Ukraine civil war coverage, or ISIS for that matter?).
While one of the big Ebola updates overnight, in addition to Obama being open to appointing an Ebola czar - because clearly the CDC is unable to handle the epidemic, best to have one on top of it all -is that some schools in Ohio and Texas are closed today after students’ potential exposure to a nurse with Ebola furthered fears of the disease spreading, this is nothing compared to the just released revelation that a health care worker who may have handled a specimen from the Liberian man who died from Ebola in Dallas is on a cruise ship in the Caribbean.
Just in case an Ebola-infected nurse traveling coach cross country doesn't do it?
From USA Today:
Industry giant Carnival says the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notified it late Wednesday that a passenger on the Texas-based Carnival Magic was a lab supervisor at the Dallas hospital where Thomas Eric Duncan died from the disease earlier this month.
Carnival says the unnamed woman has been placed in isolation on the ship and has shown no signs of illness.
"At no point in time has the individual exhibited any symptoms or signs of infection, and it has been 19 days since she was in the lab with the testing samples," Carnival says in a statement sent to USA TODAY. "She is deemed by CDC to be very low risk."
The Carnival Magic is one of the largest cruise ships in the Caribbean with a capacity for more than 4,000 passengers. It sails with more than 1,000 crew members.
Carnival says it in close contact with the CDC, and "at this time it has been determined that the appropriate course of action is to simply keep the guest in isolation on board."
Posted by Upside on :
The Carnival Magic, a ship that will stay forever at sea.
Posted by Relentless. on :
Bammy will welcome them back personally with hugs and kisses, all while feeling safe. He will then demand they all visit the local mall and spend time offering free hugs to anyone near.
Should be fine
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by Relentless.: Bammy will welcome them back personally with hugs and kisses, all while feeling safe. He will then demand they all visit the local mall and spend time offering free hugs to anyone near.
Should be fine
how else can he get America to come up with the cure?
Posted by glassman on :
once the politicians get involved you can chuck most of the real science- it'll be a keystone cops farce now.
Posted by Relentless. on :
Yup, this will end very badly.. But at least traffic won't be as bad in a couple years.
Posted by BooDog on :
Admiral Josh Painter: This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it.
As if there was any $$$ left in the tub to begin with.
Of course they can do better.
Posted by glassman on :
that actually makes me feel a little better boodog.
this is not a drill. the military at least has enough discipline to deal with this. the discipline within the civil service has become nearly non-existent in the last decade or two. You won't find the military people on cruise ships ten days after possible exposure... the two man rule is pretty much etched into military consciousness, etc...
Posted by raybond on :
without getting into a long post about a historic past going back as far as antiquity we have come out of every epidemic. ebola has been around for forty years.
most recent epidemics have been the Spanish flu and polio all looked like the end could be near. Guess what we are here.
Posted by glassman on :
whole towns died in the spanish flu ray, 'we' as you say represent the lucky ones who either thru genetics or geographical accident are still here..
ebola is scary because it has a high death rate, as we now know it is not particularly contagious- this is proven by the fact that patient 0 (Duncan) was in an apartment with his family and none of them got sick...
there is always a wierd relationship between parasites and their hosts. yeah viruses parasitize us, even thou we don't actually call them parsites... a parasite that kills it's host too quickly is actaully a failed parasite... they need a chance to distribute themselves forward thru time & space...
Posted by Relentless. on :
quote:Originally posted by raybond: without getting into a long post about a historic past going back as far as antiquity we have come out of every epidemic. ebola has been around for forty years.
most recent epidemics have been the Spanish flu and polio all looked like the end could be near. Guess what we are here.
Spanish flu mortality rate was 2.5%. Polio mortality rate was 15 - 30%
Posted by glassman on :
that depends on how you cacklack the death rate....
of the people who got the Spanish flu the death rate was 10% to 20%.....
it killed 50 to 100 million people between 3 and 5% of the world population...
the reason that "so few" (as opposed to a Stephen King type flu) died had nothing to do with human intervention either... it just mutated away from it's lethal phase...
Posted by Relentless. on :
Which is kind of what bowler is doing.
Typically any virus does not want to kill the host. That serves no purpose for the virus.
Bowler started out at 90% mortality.
It's hovering somewhere between 50 and 70%... No way of truly knowing at this point because we are in the midsts of it and not everyone that will die has died.
As far as it's legs here in the states? Jeeze, I don't know. I've flip flopped my thinking quite a few times as events have transpired. I'd like to think our medical resources and the elevated average IQ over the West African nations would limit it's spread. Then I watch as two unshielded janitors with a hose spray ebola stricken vomit off a sidewalk... Right in front of people walking by.
I watch as an infected nurse hops on a plane and goes to a wedding..
Soo... Yeah.. beats me.
Posted by raybond on :
Thucydides description of the epidemic that shook athens Greece in 430 bc and forever changed the course of history.
Thucydides himself suffered the illness but survived. He was therefore able to accurately describe the symptoms of the disease within his history of the war. As a rule, however, there was no ostensible cause; but people in good health were all of a sudden attacked by violent heats in the head, and redness and inflammation in the eyes, the inward parts, such as the throat or tongue, becoming bloody and emitting an unnatural and fetid breath. These symptoms were followed by sneezing and hoarseness, after which the pain soon reached the chest, and produced a hard cough. When it fixed in the stomach, it upset it; and discharges of bile of every kind named by physicians ensued, accompanied by very great distress. In most cases also an ineffectual retching followed, producing violent spasms, which in some cases ceased soon after, in others much later. Externally the body was not very hot to the touch, nor pale in its appearance, but reddish, livid, and breaking out into small pustules and ulcers. But internally it burned so that the patient could not bear to have on him clothing or linen even of the very lightest description; or indeed to be otherwise than stark naked. What they would have liked best would have been to throw themselves into cold water; as indeed was done by some of the neglected sick, who plunged into the rain-tanks in their agonies of unquenchable thirst; though it made no difference whether they drank little or much. Besides this, the miserable feeling of not being able to rest or sleep never ceased to torment them. The body meanwhile did not waste away so long as the distemper was at its height, but held out to a marvel against its ravages; so that when they succumbed, as in most cases, on the seventh or eighth day to the internal inflammation, they had still some strength in them. But if they passed this stage, and the disease descended further into the bowels, inducing a violent ulceration there accompanied by severe diarrhea, this brought on a weakness which was generally fatal. For the disorder first settled in the head, ran its course from thence through the whole of the body, and even where it did not prove mortal, it still left its mark on the extremities; for it settled in the privy parts, the fingers and the toes, and many escaped with the loss of these, some too with that of their eyes. Others again were seized with an entire loss of memory on their first recovery, and did not know either themselves or their friends. (trans. R. Crawley, in M. I. Finley's The Viking Portable Greek Historians, pp. 274–75) Titus Lucretius Carus provides a second historical description in his verse treatise on Epicureanism On the Nature of the Universe, the final section of which (bk. 6, lines 1090 ff.) deals with (inter alia) disease. In this he provides a graphic description of the symptoms and effects of the Plague of Athens. Although Lucretius' description generally matches closely that provided by Thucydides, the former identifies a further symptom of the disease, which, he states, accompanies the ulceration, setting in around the eight or ninth day (6.1199–1203): If any thenHad 'scaped the doom of that destruction, yetHim there awaited in the after daysA wasting and a death from ulcers vileAnd black discharges of the belly, or elseThrough the clogged nostrils would there ooze alongMuch fouled blood, oft with an aching head.(Viewed at http://www.poemhunter.com/poem/book-vi-part-04-the-plague-athens/ on 15.11.12) The inclusion of the detail of "black discharge[s] from the belly" (nigra proluvie alvi) and nostrils suggests hemolyzed blood of gastrointestinal tract hemorrhages and is perhaps more suggestive of a Hemorrhagic Fever than Typhus or Typhoid (see Cause of the plague, below).
Posted by Relentless. on :
Well aren't you a ray of sunshine..
Posted by raybond on :
By David Templeton / Pittsburgh Post Gazette
Severity of the upcoming influenza season could hinge on our old acquaintance H1N1, the virulent strain that caused 13,000 deaths during the 2009 pandemic and has made an appearance each flu season since then.
Many people have developed some immunity to that strain, but if it mutates into a more contagious, deadly strain, another pandemic is possible, health officials say.
Rick Zimmerman, a professor in the University of Pittsburgh department of family medicine, said the big question this year is, “Did H1N1 change?”
There’s no proof of it yet, “but if it is proven that it has changed — and that’s the pandemic H1N1 virus of 2009 — we might have real concern about a flu outbreak,” he said. “I’m anxious to see what happens.”
Health officials and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are recommending people get immunized as soon as vaccines are available and by October at the latest to reduce infection risk. Some drug stores already are advertising they have the vaccine.
The CDC recommends the live attenuated nasal spray vaccine for children ages 2 to 8 and the quadrivalent injected vaccine for everyone older. Some health officials, however, are recommending the high-dose trivalent vaccine for people 65 and older, on claims that it’s more effective for that age group, although CDC doesn’t currently recommend it, said Amesh A. Adalja of the UPMC Center for Health Security and member of the public health committee of the Infectious Disease Society. He presented a lecture to doctors last week at UPMC Shadyside on the flu, treatments and trends to doctors.
This year the vaccine is identical to last year’s with a focus on H1N1 and a less virulent but ever persistent H3N2 strain, along with the two B-strains of Yamagata and Victoria lineages, but a mutated version of H1N1 is what health officials say they fear most because of the risk of another pandemic, with ultimate concern that the virus returns to the H1N1 strain that caused 675,000 American deaths in 1918.
Consider that the national population then barely topped 103 million, which means one of every 153 people died, mostly from secondary pneumonia and other complications, Dr. Adalja said.
Flu strains routinely mutate, with some mutations leading to more virulent strains.
“Everyone is worried about H1N1 that started in 2009,” said Kelly Stefano Cole, a University of Pittsburgh associate professor of immunology and co-manager of Regional Biocontainment Laboratory in the Pitt Center for Vaccine Research. “As it passes through people, it changes, and that’s the history of the flu. The changes make it more resistant to the vaccine, and it only takes one change for it be recognized as a new strain that can be more transmissible and pathogenic.”
Another concern is the avian (bird) strain, H7N9, which first appeared in March 2013 in China. Of 132 cases, 37 people died. Most had chronic health conditions, but it represented a 28 percent death rate. For now, the World Health Organization reports, H7N9 is transmitted mostly from birds to humans who raise and handle chickens or other fowl. Should it develop a better means of transmission, from human to human, a health crisis would emerge.
Flu-season predictions rarely are accurate, Dr. Zimmerman said.
Clues to what might occur are limited to flu strains now existing in the Southern Hemisphere, where winter and the flu season are winding down, and flu strains in Asia. Health officials south of the equator “are seeing a very severe flu season,” Dr. Adalja said.
Last week, he advised physicians to prescribe more readily the antiviral medication, Tamiflu, especially for pregnant women, who have a significantly greater death rate from flu infections.
He also said physicians should prescribe Tamiflu even if the patient has had symptoms beyond the cutoff point of 48 hours. “You should give the antiviral medication no matter how long out the patient is, and not just limit it to the first 48 hours,” he said.
Dr. Adalja also said a person becomes contagious one day before symptoms appear, which helps explain why the flu is readily transmitted person to person.
David Templeton: dtempleton@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1578.
Posted by Relentless. on :
quote:Originally posted by raybond: but if it mutates into a more contagious, deadly strain,
A virus rarely mutates into something more deadly to the host. It serves no purpose for the virus. If the host dies, the virus dies.
Posted by Relentless. on :
quote:Originally posted by Relentless.: This was calculated sometime back in March of this year:
CDC just reported almost 15,000 infected and just over 5,000 dead..
Just a reminder
Posted by raybond on :
There is no doubt in my mind that things could get out of control.
Posted by CashCowMoo on :
quote:Originally posted by raybond: There is no doubt in my mind that things could get out of control.
Hope and change...bring them over here for treatment. Send troops over there. No quarantine unless for troops and not aid workers. Gotta love your man.
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by Relentless.:
quote:Originally posted by raybond: but if it mutates into a more contagious, deadly strain,
A virus rarely mutates into something more deadly to the host. It serves no purpose for the virus. If the host dies, the virus dies.
that's very true Relentless. however, one must ask who the REAL parasite is.....
Posted by Relentless. on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman:
quote:Originally posted by Relentless.:
quote:Originally posted by raybond: but if it mutates into a more contagious, deadly strain,
A virus rarely mutates into something more deadly to the host. It serves no purpose for the virus. If the host dies, the virus dies.
that's very true Relentless. however, one must ask who the REAL parasite is.....
lol.. I'm not one of those who thinks that humanity is a scourge on this planet.
I've wondered if this is our home planet.. But we as beings are not different than any others.
Posted by glassman on :
scourge? nah... just out of equilibrium....
Posted by glassman on :
i read this back in '01 just before 9-11...
The Soviet Union was firmly dedicated to weaponizing the Marburg virus in order to unleash a deadly plague in populated enemy centers. Ken Alibek, in Biohazard: The Chilling True Story of the Largest Covert Biological Weapons Program in the World -- Told from Inside by the Man Who Ran It, describes
Marburg is similar to but worse than Ebola,....
"The mysterious virus appeared to liquefy body organs. One of the survivors went mad after the virus chewed away his brain cells. Before the victim dies, every inch of their body was wet with blood." Some scientists fear that many cases of Marburg are currently being misdiagnosed as Ebola, leading some to fear that arthropods may be partly responsible for the current filovirus outbreak. Posted by Relentless. on :
It's possible, although the Liberian strain didn't seem to produce as much of the bleed out that was typically associated with bowler.
Posted by glassman on :
the biggest concern should be whether or not terrorists have the capabilities to take advantage of the current outbreak in the same way the Russkies wanted to.
there is some significant movement in the entomologic community to ID possible arthropod carriers and or reservoirs... there may some news on that forthcoming in th enext two weeks....
Posted by Pagan on :
quote:Originally posted by glassman: the biggest concern should be whether or not terrorists have the capabilities to take advantage of the current outbreak in the same way the Russkies wanted to.
there is some significant movement in the entomologic community to ID possible arthropod carriers and or reservoirs... there may some news on that forthcoming in th enext two weeks....
So in 2 weeks when that doesn't happen as usual....what will be the next thing? You know....like the Market crashing? You have been calling that for years. I guess if you call it.....and it happens several years later you can say you were right? Right? LOL! Hahahaha
Posted by glassman on :
quote:Originally posted by Pagan:
quote:Originally posted by glassman: the biggest concern should be whether or not terrorists have the capabilities to take advantage of the current outbreak in the same way the Russkies wanted to.
there is some significant movement in the entomologic community to ID possible arthropod carriers and or reservoirs... there may some news on that forthcoming in th enext two weeks....
So in 2 weeks when that doesn't happen as usual....what will be the next thing? You know....like the Market crashing? You have been calling that for years. I guess if you call it.....and it happens several years later you can say you were right? Right? LOL! Hahahaha
when "that" doesn't happen? when which doesn't happen?
i made no prediction in that statement. i am waiting on news from the ESA ( the conference is next week the 16th) that i will share when it comes. i doubt it will help you invest in anything tho.
as to teh crash that hasn't come? i think you have me confused with somebody else who was predicting the crash. We did have major correction this year and we are already again at highs we should not be at.
if they keep giving free money to the banks? there will be no crash.
once they stop giving moeny away there will be another crash. sadly, by the time they stop giving money away to the banks hamburger will probably cost 20$ per pound......
you misinterpret much of what i say- i dunno if that's intentional or not but then i don;t spend much time worrying about it either....
Posted by Relentless. on :
quote:Originally posted by Pagan:
quote:Originally posted by glassman: the biggest concern should be whether or not terrorists have the capabilities to take advantage of the current outbreak in the same way the Russkies wanted to.
there is some significant movement in the entomologic community to ID possible arthropod carriers and or reservoirs... there may some news on that forthcoming in th enext two weeks....
So in 2 weeks when that doesn't happen as usual....what will be the next thing? You know....like the Market crashing? You have been calling that for years. I guess if you call it.....and it happens several years later you can say you were right? Right? LOL! Hahahaha
Pagan, the market is broken and has been for a very long time. It does not reflect the economy nor does it reflect accurate valuation of companies. What it does reflect is how much money the fed has pumped into it to maintain the illusion that it is worth anything.
Why? Because as long as the MSM 24/7 news can point to a market at all time highs they can ignor the fact that milk is at $5.50/gallon... Hamburger is as $5.50/lb... Disposable income for the middle class is at lows.. Real wages vs inflation are dropping like a rock.. Unemployment is at all time highs if you have the wit to include those no longer on unemployment in the calculations.
All of that spells major market correction if or when the fed stops falsely inflating the market.
When does that happen, if at all? Beats me, anyone's guess is as good as mine. But, since I'm in a guessing mood... I'd say mid 2016 should be the start. It plays out into a tactic used many times of dropping the market before an election and allowing the new guy to blame the old guy.
As for bowler? It's far from over. The only thing that has changed in the last month is we now have a newly appointed bowler czar who promptly stopped all reporting on the subject other than a few feel good stories here and there. As for it spreading here in the states? Who knows, I've flip flopped on that one quite a few times.
Posted by glassman on :
FYI Pagan the news was not significant but it was thought provoking;
“House Flies as Suitable Mechanical Vectors for Viruses” by Alec Gerry, Department of Entomology, University of California, Riverside, CA.
they can transmit ebola, but they are not true hosts....
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