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jgrecoconstr
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Wouldn't you think there would be a software program that would analyze stocks that gapped up in the past and be able to compare all the varibles and similarities of why it gapped up and spit out results of ones that may gap. It would seem that if there was such a thing that you would run it late day and be able to get in on that stock before it closed to be in the gap for the next day. Does that sound like a fantasy? or is it actually plausible.
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PCola77
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Fantasy. Most gaps are due to news while the market is closed. IMO, anyway.
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T e x
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look at these and see what you think you would ask the program to look for...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan?s=TSA[t.t_eq_s]![t.e_eq_n]![as0,20,tv _gt_40000]![tl0_gt_th1*1.026]

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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jgrecoconstr
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Let's see with out sounding to much like a moron cause I have no idea how to write software.
What I was thinking was you would first need historical data on a few thousand stocks atleast to get some kind of similariires for things to scan for. Obviously all technical indicators. I would think it should be able to scan for news also on stocks that are starting to show a higher volume. Somehow it would have to scan all the exchanges during the day. Pick out ones that start to have close similarities to the historical stocks that gapped, based on news, volume, rsi etc.etc. Your able to get results say around 3pm-3:30 and get in that stock before it gaps the next morning. Maybe it only has a 30% success rate that would still be pretty good. Somewhere out there there has to be someone intelligent enough to write a program for software that would do that. It's not me

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T e x
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best easy, quickish bet would be sumpin' like [T&S = more trades in afternoon] + [closed at HOD]

As PC mentions, can't write software to find PR/news that hasn't been released yet.

Well, legally...

I suppose a hacker could find items in queues that will be released after hours. Even then, though, yet *another* run would be in order about 3-5 am.

THEN, there's no way without hacking insiders' machines to get inside dope that won't be PR/news for a while, yet...

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
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PCola77
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And you also would have to worry about the cases that are the opposite of your intent. For example, you could see price and volume start to increase the day earning are announced, and buy looking for a gap, only to have earnings be bad and get gapped the wrong direction.
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T e x
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yeah...

I think the most effective would be, basically, "strong closers."

nuttin' wrong with that.

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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jgrecoconstr
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OK so maybe you couldn't go by news and you would have to omit that. I was thinking more on this last night and it would have to analyize buys coming in before 3 oclock and compare those to your data bank. The amount of buys per hour etc. as it is also analying the price rising,it would have to find a common thread in there with the data stored. I know I am having trouble explaining it the way I am thinking of it. But think of it along the way Google works. As all stocks are just about immediatley posted on the net the program would be searching like google does. It would find the current PE, rsi, sto, Ma's, volume, volume spikes, etc... also any news that came out before the market closed. It wouldn't be able to interpret the news as good or bad by itself but it would find that there was an article on say the Street or a PR released on a pre programmed site. It would know by the volume either positive or negative and the price movement whether it was a candidate to gap up or down. Let's for example say SIRI it was scanning at 3pm and found that it had been posted on the street at 12 pm, it found a dramatic increase in buys, huge ones for the next three hours, it had been trading sideways for weeks, the technicals were compared to the database, fundamentals to if you wanted and it mathed 3,000 stocks that gapped in your history. The time of trades (between trades) and volatitlity of them would be the main key for comparison. I'm still not desrcribing whats in my head correctly !!!! I know if you two got together you could write this program. Email me when you got it working ...LOL In all reality it doesn't sound like it is immposible atleast not what is in my head that I can't explain while I'm typing with two fingers.
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jgrecoconstr
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Sometihing I didn't know you both mentioned. News never comes out in the day that causes a gap up the next day?
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T e x
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quote:
Originally posted by jgrecoconstr:
Sometihing I didn't know you both mentioned. News never comes out in the day that causes a gap up the next day?

late in the day...sometimes.

Get a chart of PGPM from May '06, I think...it had news fairly early (you'll see the day, lol), ran about 1,200-1,300%, then doubled the next day. See if it gapped that day...the second day.

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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PCola77
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Speaking solely about "real" stocks, they have to announce major events like earnings reports, etc off market hours, I'm prety sure. OTC/pinky, probably not...

quote:
Originally posted by jgrecoconstr:
Sometihing I didn't know you both mentioned. News never comes out in the day that causes a gap up the next day?


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T e x
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quote:
Originally posted by PCola77:
Speaking solely about "real" stocks, they have to announce major events like earnings reports, etc off market hours, I'm prety sure. OTC/pinky, probably not...

quote:
Originally posted by jgrecoconstr:
Sometihing I didn't know you both mentioned. News never comes out in the day that causes a gap up the next day?


Not the NAZ, which *does,* however require advance notice. Good read, here:

http://classic.nasdaqtrader.com/trader/tradingservices/marketwatch/**********/** ********.stm

huh..OK well, dunno what's about...but here's a copy, then:

quote:
**********

Responsibilities
The ********** section of NASDAQ’s MarketWatch Department provides real-time surveillance of listed company activity in The NASDAQ Stock Market. ********** continually reviews news issued by NASDAQ-listed companies and monitors price and volume activity in NASDAQ securities on a real-time basis using automated surveillance systems – helping to provide an orderly market to protect both investors and listed companies.

NASDAQ Stock Market rules 4310(c)(16), 4320(e)(14) and IM-4120-1 require that, except in unusual circumstances, NASDAQ-listed companies disclose promptly to the public through any Regulation FD complaint method (or combination of methods), material information that would reasonably be expected to affect the value of their securities or influence investors’ decisions. These rules also require issuers to provide NASDAQ ********** advance notice of certain news events to permit ********** to assess the news announcement for materiality and, in certain circumstances, implement temporary trading halts to allow for even dissemination of the material news.

Regulation FD Compliant Disclosure Methods
These methods include any one method (or combination of methods) listed below:

* Broadly disseminated press release
* Furnishing to or filing a Form 8-K with the SEC
* Conference calls*
* Press conferences*
* Webcasts*

*So long as the public is provided adequate notice (generally by press release) and granted access.

The sections that follow are a general summary of the issuer reporting requirements and other ********** information. For more complete information, please refer to the NASD Manual or contact ********** at 800.537.3929.

Issuer Reporting Requirements
NASDAQ issuers are required to provide prior notification of certain planned material news announcements to **********. Notification should be provided at least 10 minutes before the release of the information to the public. Issuers using a press release or Form 8-K may notify ********** by fax or provide the material information by phone. When using a conference call, press conference or webcast as the primary means of dissemination, issuers are required to provide prior notice to ********** of certain material information by providing:

* The press release announcing the logistics of future disclosure event; and
* A descriptive summary of the material elements to be announced during the disclosure event if the press release does not contain a summary.

Material Notification Categories
Issuers are required to notify ********** prior to the release of material information included in the following list of events outlined in IM-4120-1. Not all developments in these areas will warrant a temporary trading halt. In addition to the following list of events, NASDAQ encourages issuers to avail themselves of the opportunity for advance notification to ********** in situations where they believe, based upon their knowledge of the significance of the information, that a temporary trading halt may be necessary or appropriate.

* Financial-related disclosures, including quarterly or yearly earnings, earnings restatement, pre-announcements or “guidance”.
* Corporate reorganizations and acquisitions, including mergers, tender offers, asset transactions and bankruptcies or receiverships.
* New products or discoveries, or developments regarding customers or suppliers (e.g., significant developments in clinical or customer trials, and receipt or cancellation of a material contract or order).
* Senior management changes of a material nature or change in control.
* Resignation or termination of independent auditors, or withdrawal of a previously issued audit report.
* Events regarding the issuer’s securities – e.g., defaults on senior securities, calls of securities for redemption, repurchase plans, stock splits or changes in dividends, changes to the rights of security holders or public or private sales of additional securities.
* Significant legal or regulatory developments.
* Any event requiring the filing of a form 8-K.

Trading Halts
Depending on the materiality of the company’s news announcement and its anticipated effect on the price of the issuer’s securities, ********** may advise the issuer that a temporary trading halt is appropriate. Trading halts provide an opportunity for investors to gain equal access to information once the material news is disseminated. A pause in trading benefits existing and potential shareholders by ensuring that material news is distributed equally among all market participants and by ensuring that all trading is based on publicly held facts. Although trading halts may vary in length, trading is normally resumed in a stock about 30 minutes following the dissemination of the material announcement through the news media or another Regulation FD complaint manner.

The process of reviewing issuer disclosures for materiality and the consideration of temporary news-related trading halts occurs during regular market hours as well as during pre-market and after hours trading sessions. Generally, a trading halt may not be necessary when coverage of a material news announcement is fully disseminated prior to 8:00 a.m. or after 6:30 p.m. ET.

Real-Time Surveillance
********** monitors price and volume activity in NASDAQ securities on a real-time basis using automated surveillance systems. ********** uses news-gathering resources and telephone contacts with the company and market participants to determine if there is a reasonable explanation for the activity. All information received by ********** is confidential and used strictly for regulatory purposes. ********** refers potentially violative activity to the NASD Market Regulation Department for further review.

How To Reach **********
********** may be contacted from 7:30 a.m. until 6:30 p.m., ET, Monday-Friday, at 800.537.3929 or 301.978.8500. Material news may be faxed 24 hours a day to 301.978.8510. Outside of normal business hours, companies are still obligated to provide prior notification to ********** of certain material information. Before 7:30 a.m. and after 6:30 p.m. ET, NASDAQ-listed companies may leave voicemail messages at 800.537.3929 or 301.978.8500, and should also fax a copy of the material news to **********. Companies do not need a verbal confirmation of prior notification from a ********** analyst.

Oh, I see... "s t o c k w a t c h" is filtered, cuz of the web site by that name...

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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jgrecoconstr
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Tex I have stock charts and I don't think I can isolate one day. I did a monthly view and it looks like it gapped May 7th under normal volume. I can't see the price for those days though. It seems to me you need access to that fax machine at Nasdaq and it would be a whole ton easier. let me ask another question. Do you play gaps the next day? I don't and don't intend to but has it been your experience that they drop back of the majority of time the day after they gap? I'm going to keep with what I have been doing but the software thing still intrigues me. I'm going to talk to my web design lady and see if she knows someone who writes software just for the hell of it and see what they would think and the cost involved. I'll follow up and let you know what they think. And since you have my curiosity up.... were you in on that 1,200 percent jump?
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T e x
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no, I came home from a job site, and it was already up 500% on a fluff PR, so I figured it was nearly over, lol...

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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T e x
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looking at stockcharts, and as I recall, it ran from about .005-.006 to around .012-.013...then doubled again the next day to around .024-.026

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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jgrecoconstr
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hmmm the post I just spent 5 minutes on disappeared. So here it is again. Guru.com I think is the name of the site the woman gave me. It has a ton of people that write and design programs. I'll see if I can contact someone there this weekend.
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jgrecoconstr
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OK I just posted on Guru the job to design a program for a certain stock characteristic. I could be wasting my time but what the hell.
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T e x
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lol, you could get replies from folk who get a pretty penny to code that stuff...

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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jgrecoconstr
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Any one from any country can answer the post Tex did you look at the site? Most people on there had their hourly rate, anywhere from 15 an hour up to 200 per hour. Some were in the US and were 20-25 an hour. My luck being what it is I'll get a reply that says yeah I can do that and I'll be paying Laywers rates.
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jgrecoconstr
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I received 16 replies from the post on GURU for people wanting to do the project. I have emailed two of them. Both say it is possible to write a program however I left them alittle vague on some details until I send them a confidentialty agreement just to be safe.
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T e x
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well, please be aware...

wait, let me back up: have you ever directed a software development project?

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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jgrecoconstr
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No never, I know it's going to cost some dollars and it may not work but it wouldn't be the first investment to lose on. Tell me what you think I should expect problem wise so I know what troubles to run into.
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PCola77
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Are you getting a confidentiality agreement written up by a lawyer? If not, you may be setting yourself up to not have something legit, or something they could find a loophole in. If you are having it done by a lawyer, I can't imagine that would be less than a couple hundred bucks, and I'm curious how much you are planning to sink into this. Just writing some code to do some technical analysis took me a good chunk of my free time over a couple of months, and I knew exactly what iw as trying to do. If you work with someone who is not familiar with the markets, and doesn't understand what exactly you're trying to accomplish (and to be honest, I still don't know what exactly you're trying to do), there could be a lot of wheel spinning in trying to get somethign like this done. Also, I doubt it would be easy to get real time data, which you seem to want, becuase you can't simply interact with data feeds taht are often set up to protect the data supplier from just that type of data mining.

I hope you find somethign worthwhile, but I thikn you need to spend a lot more time on laying out what exactly you want done before you start paying someone to do things taht may not even be what you want to do.

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jgrecoconstr
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Good advice P. I got the agreement from my brother who is a lawyer. As far as what I am doing.... who knows but I get ideas in my head all day long. I work to much I think to much and I don't have enough fun. So I spend money on sometimes crazy things. Sometimes they pan out sometimes they don't so it's worth a risk to see if what I'm thinking and having trouble putting in type can be done. I'm at a standstill with the 3% chart since I am now stuck in WFC until it turns around or I decide I;m down to much so I need something else to turn my attention to.
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T e x
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ok...I'm in [Big Grin]

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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jgrecoconstr
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LOL !!! you should have mail.
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T e x
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nope... [Confused]

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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jgrecoconstr
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Ok it wouldn't send. So I tried to a reply to you thru here but that wouldnt send either. Your box is appearantly full.
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T e x
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o, shat! got network problems...

hope this gets through. If so, will be back ASAP...

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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T e x
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quote:
Originally posted by jgrecoconstr:
Ok it wouldn't send. So I tried to a reply to you thru here but that wouldnt send either. Your box is appearantly full.

PMs should be good...

sorry about that...chronic problem, no excuses...

may take me awhile, though...not sure what else is going on, yet

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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T e x
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crazy...

now using this as "notes" cuz I can post here

Apparently, I can access certain Web sites, but not others.

Some have shared, or similar" passwords...

Anybody else recognize these "symptoms"?

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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jgrecoconstr
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crazy yes, I just copied and pasted BUT... I can't send until you reply. Is this an omen? I won't be back here till 8 or 9 esatern. I'll give it a shot then
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