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Author Topic: Anyone use vector vest? I just tried...
TimW
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I have played around with it a little but finally just paid the $10 to give it a try for 5 weeks... figure what they hey. The results actually surprised me.

I ran their viewer and showed all, then sorted by their best performing "VST" numbers.. And their top 10 recommended stocks averaged about 34% over 3 months (12/24/07 to 3/25/08), the lowest 8%, highest 79%).

Im going to chart even more of their top VST numbers, probably all the way down to the top 50 or so, and see what i come up with.

But either way, Im thinking of picking about 10 of them to distribute 1,000 a piece into. If i check back often and making sure they are either always in their top 25 or so, or if i have a gain on it and its no longer in the top, then sell and rebuy a top VST # again.

Make sense?

30% quarterly is good enough for me. I cant do that risky stuff anymore, lose too much sleep

10k compounded quarterly 30% would mean $28k in one year, 80k in 2, 230k in 3, 660k in 4, and about 2 mil in 5 years.

Here were the averages for the 3 months

1.487625677
1.796638655
1.206426056
1.20021164
1.081420874
1.35735138
1.357321652
1.159796438
1.445496536
1.293656207

total
1.338594512


Im headin to bed tonight, but tomorrow im going to average out the next 40 stocks they have a high rating for and see what it all averages out to and post it, just to make sure these arent just fluke stocks.

Good idea? waste of time? too much fluctuation? Thats why I think ill pick about 10 or so of the stocks, to help rid the hurt from fluctuating prices.

--------------------
Buy high, sell higher.

Posts: 869 | From: Az | Registered: Sep 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
TimW
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And heres what those same current top ten's did in the last three days

percent gains

1.112171148
1.228735632
1.064879565
1.049602073
1.105692716
1.055733306
1.062714356
1.039531701
1.085689506
1.063656758

average
1.086840676


If this list refreshes often as days go by, might even be good for some quick couple day averages.. goes up 2%, down 4%, up 9% and OUT.

Heres the list of the tickers if anyone wants to rain on the parade or further support the topic:

CALM
WSCI
AKS
KEX
BUCY
LNN
PBT
STLD
CMP
NEU

--------------------
Buy high, sell higher.

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PCola77
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What is it? A stock picker website, or program, or what?
Posts: 5508 | From: Southeastern PA | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
TimW
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its a program but it runs within their website.

You can setup custom searches and whatnot, but typically they just have buy / sell recommendations based on their "VST" number which is..

"" VST (VST-Vector) is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation. VectorVest advocates the purchase of safe, undervalued stocks rising in price. ""

Im working on the xls file of what yesterdays top 10 picks, if bought at open today, did today and will post that next.

--------------------
Buy high, sell higher.

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TimW
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Well i expected better, but none the less its still on par. and not negative. Most are current on their top ten list, and some are just below their top ten list.

CALM xO 39.81 1.34 3.48
WSCI O 11.4 0.71 6.64
AKS xN 54.95 0.13 0.24
KEX xN 56.97 0.26 0.46
BUCY xO 107.17 -1.21 -1.12
LNN xN 104.3 2.01 1.97
PBT xN 22.35 0.66 3.04
STLD xO 68.79 0.42 0.61
CMP xN 62.6 0.01 0.02
NEU xN 75.81 -0.05 -0.07
1.527 average pecent


If they were held from the previous day, itd be a gain of 1.5 %

If bought at the open price it would have only been a gain of .4% , barely enough to cover trade fees to buy... but a half a percent a day does gain just over 30% in 3 months, just like the average I had found from these stocks 3 month history.

Im going to do the same thing for their current top ten, as well as continue to track these top ten as of 3/25.

That way I can see if these are good for just quick day in and outs, if their "runup" is already over by the time they get to the top of this companys picker, or if it actually makes sense to buy the top 10 stocks on their list, sell in a few days, or hold for awhile. Etc etc.

Figure i gotta find SOME way to make money and this heck even going up half a pecerent a day is better than what i have gotten in the past..

If I can make a half a percent consistenently off of these a day for a week then sell and buy their next top ten (if these are no longer in)then thats a win in my book.

--------------------
Buy high, sell higher.

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PCola77
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Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, but if you put $2,500 in each on, and get .4%, that would be a $10 gain. With Choicetrade (basically the cheapest one out there) your gain is $0. So you'd have to put MORE than $2,500 in each. Say $500 in each nets you $10 after commission from each one, or $100 a day. Is it really worth risking $50,000 to get $100 a day? (and that's assuming you HAVE $50,000 to put in the market, which most here don't, I would assume)
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BooDog
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Using the analysis to come up with opportunities to find something that may be ready to move looks great - but without checking the fundamentals you could walk right into a trap. And as Pcola said - need to account for the commissions. You may get the same results (or even better) using your own scans. Taking the time to do even the most basic DD can never be replaced by one of these sites imo.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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PCola77
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Teh main problem with using the "average" return is that in order to get those returns, you have to buy all of them, which can be a prety good chunk of change. If you only buy some of the top 10, you run the risk of buying the poorly performing ones. On the flip side you could get only the good performing ones, but if you only buy some of them, you're introducing exectly the risk taht you're trying to avoid by using a site like this. So in that case, you have to find out if the risk/reward is significantly better than the risk/reward you could get on your own.
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TimW
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Im just tracking these and seeeing how viable it is for now. I have set them up in a portfolio in that program so i dont have to keep manually pulling data into excel. Ill post the updates weekly from now on for them, just for fun.

.4% a day sounds small but it does translate to nearly 300% a year when compounded.


I completely agree with taking the time to do the DD. I have gotten sick of fundamentals though because as the market has shown us lately, fundamentals can be faked and prices can drop drastically at anytime.

Im going for trends now.. which is kinda what this vst rating thing does, finds out what has been moving fairly strongly and gives it a number.

For instance, the ones in their top ten have like a 1.4 or greater "VST" number, their own little rating. Well, back when these stocks started their run they were in the low 1.0's or 1.1's.. Then changed from a sell to a hold to a buy. So im going through all the low 1's that have recently been sells, and just got moved over to holds.. and im watching those very carefully... then i look up what made them go down, how the price has been trending lately, and if there is any news anticipated. Statistically on their stocks when they had more than a couple buy ratings in a row the price really followed.. so im hoping i can catch the early trend.

One of them was CRNT.

You cant argue with this chart.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CRNT&t=5d

It was a "sell" at 1.05, then 1.07, then 1.09, then a hold on 1.13. I bought some up. Then its rating was 1.30, 1.36. I missed the initial 1.05 to 1.09 run, but still made it on the last 2 days where its gone up 18%. I have a 3% trailing stop on it so if it opens low tomorrow and starts declining, heck, i still made 15%.

So these type of plays are the ones im MOST interested in. Toss $1000 or so in one of these everyday with a trailing stop loss 3% and ignore... hope the trend continues up and when it starts to decline, I at least still walk away ahead. These are good enough for a couple days at a time for some quick gains.

Hopefully someone that uses vector vest will chime in and say if they have any favorite searches or if they noticed any trends before the huge increases their "top picks" usually get and so fourth.

Im in no way recommending the program, im just trying to find out what works good for me.

Im tired of losing money and trying to turn my last 10,000 back into the 40,000 i started with.

--------------------
Buy high, sell higher.

Posts: 869 | From: Az | Registered: Sep 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
TimW
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Heres my next radars for tomorrow. Lets pretend I buy each one for $1,000 worth at the opening price.

Fake buys, $1000 at open. Plan to sell with a 3% trailing stop loss, or at end of day.

Lets see if their top ten "agressive rebounding" picks help at all.

OFI
AOI
IFUL
TGB
CDS
OPY
AKOA
ATEA
NHI
EXM

Once i get opening prices ill figure out the cost (ill go one share under the $1,000 cost mark with comission included) and see what the gains are.


If nothing else, this can show some good information for anyone considering this program.. They can see that the picks have either been helpful in multiple occassions, or they can see they are total hype and by the time the pick comes, the price drops.

Who knows, lets see!

--------------------
Buy high, sell higher.

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PCola77
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Tim, I'm still curious about how, with a .4% avg return (i.e., $4 return on your $1000), that you will make any money. Do you not pay commission?
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TimW
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I dont pay comission every day! [Smile]

The ones i was looking at that have average half a percent are ones that i would hold for a month or two or until they start retracing.

I guess I may have been confusing since I did kinda merge two types together.. One group their top 10 I would do something like buy and hold for a few months. Using their other scanners find their top rebound or momentum plays and do those for a day or two.

So far, the 3/25 picks are down an average 2.7%. The market as a whole has slid a bit this late week so ill chalk that as normal for now. Every friday ill update those ones though.

In the meantime, the "top 10" on their agressive rebound list...

OFI +.10, 2%
AOI +.16, 2.74%
IFUL (.26) (19%) (right at the end of day too? oh well)
TGB (.01) (.19%)
CDS (.23) (3.10%)
OPY (2.78) (6.25%)
AKOA 0
ATEA (.40) (8.7%)
NHI (.57) (1.75%)
EXM (1.12) (3.50%)


Safe to say all of those were complete failures!! LoL Out of ten "rebounders",... Only one looks promising. Definetly cant go blind off of that search.

--------------------
Buy high, sell higher.

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beechwood
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I've been using Vector Vest for some time
and found their product quite usefull.
Avoid Peter Leeds, however.
I tracked their performance over an entire year
and found that 71% of his picks went south.

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PCola77
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What do you use it for/how do you use it?

quote:
Originally posted by beechwood:
I've been using Vector Vest for some time
and found their product quite usefull.
Avoid Peter Leeds, however.
I tracked their performance over an entire year
and found that 71% of his picks went south.


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beechwood
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What I like most about VV are their multiple
research platforms and the ability to taylor
your watch lists to your own specs
( i.e.; volume, price, category, etc. ).
I particularly like their overlays in TA charts.
Lots of people offer buy, hold, or sell sheets.
They go a step further with some good FA as well.
Lots of good stuff there.

As for P. Leeds, it wasn't worth the two bills I
spent on it for a years subscription.
Almost 3/4 of their picks went south.
I could do better throwing darts at a board
than he does with his SWAG methodology.
Same goes for "roller-coaster stocks".
VV is one of the better ones out there.

Posts: 669 | From: Gouldsboro, Pa. | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
   

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