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Author Topic: CHRISTMAS shake out comes early
BooDog
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Okay, so I have been watching people run to bonds to try and save their assests. Just how much of a shakeout will there be? I am trying to find stocks that are heading to 5 yr + lows. Retirement accounts also may be taking a hit this winter as well imo.
http://www.govexec.com/


Something to keep an eye on.

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All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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BooDog
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I tried to post the TSP ticker. This is the first real hit so far. I am expecting it to deepen.

TSP TICKERFUND G F C S I
Nov 23, 2007 close $12.22 $11.85 $16.21 $19.33 $24.70
Daily Change: $0.00 $0.01 $0.27 $0.28 $0.50
This Month (%) 0.25 1.46 -6.84 -8.21 -6.12

FUND L 2040 L 2030 L 2020 L 2010 L Income
Nov 23, 2007 close $17.97 $17.17 $16.45 $15.31 $13.37
Daily Change: $0.26 $0.22 $0.18 $0.10 $0.05
This Month (%) -5.57 -4.88 -4.03 -2.30 -1.11

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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BooDog
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This might help a bit.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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BooDog
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Stock Futures Fall Ahead of Fed Auction
Monday December 17, 7:01 am ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
Stocks Head for Lower Open Before Fed's First Credit Auction; Greenspan Warns of Stagflation


NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street was poised to extend its losses Monday as investors remained skeptical that the Federal Reserve's first credit auction will be effective in loosening up a tight market.
The Fed is scheduled Monday to offer $20 billion in 28-day credit through an auction, and bids will be accepted between 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. EST. The aim of the auction is to spur commercial banks to borrow from the central bank, and in turn, encourage increased lending on the part of the banks to businesses and consumers.

Last week, the Fed disappointed investors by lowering the interest rates by a quarter-point, which was less than some investors expected. Wall Street is pleased that policy makers say they are continuing to try to boost market confidence, which has dwindled since home foreclosures started soaring, but the market is so far unconvinced that the auction tactic will work.

A speech Sunday night by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan likely added to the market's ill humor. Greenspan said that "stagflation" -- simultaneous inflation and economic slowdown -- is a possibility, given last week's data showing spiking consumer prices.

Dow Jones industrial futures fell 58, or 0.43 percent, to 13,382, while Standard & Poor's 500 index futures 8.60, or 0.58 percent, to 1,469.80. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 10, or 0.48 percent, to 2,083.80.

Last week, the Dow dropped 2.10 percent, the S&P 500 index fell 2.44 percent and the Nasdaq lost 2.60 percent.

The dollar was higher against most other major currencies Monday, while gold prices fell.

Light, sweet crude fell 45 cents to $90.82 a barrel in premarket electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In economic data, the U.S. government will report Monday morning on the current account deficit, which is expected to narrow. And Monday afternoon, the National Association of Home Builders is scheduled to release its housing market index, which is expected to hold steady.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 1.71 percent, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 3.51. Britain's FTSE 100 dropped 1.24 percent, Germany's DAX index lost 1.34 percent and France's CAC-40 declined 1.40 percent.

New York Stock Exchange: http://www.nyse.com

Nasdaq Stock Market: http://www.nasdaq.com

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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BooDog
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN (DJI:^DJI)

Index Value: 12,589.07
Trade Time: 4:03PM ET
Change: 238.42 (1.86%)
Prev Close: 12,827.49
Open: 12,820.90
Day's Range: 12,567.53 - 12,906.42
52wk Range: 11,926.80 - 14,280.00

Here's my thread!

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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BooDog
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With rumors of another half point cut at the end of the month and then another cut in May – I’m back in. Should be some nice gaps here and there and possibly some others taking even bigger dips with lagging earnings. Speculation should push the indexes back up though.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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BooDog
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Starting to see some major lows...

BSC
Sep 03, $70

today
BEAR STEARNS COS THE (NYSE:BSC)

Last Trade: 73.86
Trade Time: 2:33PM ET
Change: 5.19 (6.57%)
Prev Close: 79.05
Open: 79.47
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 110.58

Day's Range: 73.63 - 80.57
52wk Range: 70.10 - 172.61
Volume: 5,389,507
Avg Vol (3m): 6,333,180
Market Cap: 10.06B
P/E (ttm): 48.52
EPS (ttm): 1.52
Div & Yield: 1.28 (1.70%)


watching HSC also.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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BooDog
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M B I A INC (NYSE:MBI)

Last Trade: 8.15
Trade Time: 2:42PM ET
Change: 5.25 (39.18%)
Prev Close: 13.40
Open: 10.52
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 34.56


Day's Range: 7.63 - 11.00
52wk Range: 11.11 - 76.02
Volume: 26,503,192
Avg Vol (3m): 11,330,300
Market Cap: 1.02B
P/E (ttm): 1.96
EPS (ttm): 4.176
Div & Yield: 1.36 (8.50%)

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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BooDog
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ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (NYSE:AGO)

Last Trade: 18.46
Trade Time: 2:43PM ET
Change: 3.53 (16.05%)
Prev Close: 21.99
Open: 21.83
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 31.71

Day's Range: 17.79 - 21.83
52wk Range: 13.34 - 31.99
Volume: 5,523,970
Avg Vol (3m): 1,669,990
Market Cap: 1.25B
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): -0.01
Div & Yield: 0.16 (0.70%)

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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BooDog
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WASHINGTON MUTUAL (NYSE:WM)

Last Trade: 13.00
Trade Time: 2:44PM ET
Change: 0.39 (2.91%)
Prev Close: 13.39
Open: 13.42
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 16.02

Day's Range: 12.91 - 13.72
52wk Range: 10.73 - 45.81
Volume: 31,244,512
Avg Vol (3m): 34,577,800
Market Cap: 11.22B
P/E (ttm): 4.18
EPS (ttm): 3.116
Div & Yield: 2.24 (16.50%)

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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BooDog
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NATL CITY CP (NYSE:NCC)

Last Trade: 15.03
Trade Time: 2:45PM ET
Change: 0.45 (2.91%)
Prev Close: 15.48
Open: 15.50
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 17.28

Day's Range: 14.94 - 15.93
52wk Range: 13.51 - 38.94
Volume: 6,018,143
Avg Vol (3m): 8,437,220
Market Cap: 9.53B
P/E (ttm): 6.14
EPS (ttm): 2.45
Div & Yield: 0.84 (5.80%)

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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BooDog
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FIRST HORIZON NTL CP (NYSE:FHN)

Last Trade: 15.99
Trade Time: 2:46PM ET
Change: 2.92 (15.44%)
Prev Close: 18.91
Open: 18.35
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 19.96

Day's Range: 15.35 - 18.35
52wk Range: 14.93 - 45.44
Volume: 5,129,681
Avg Vol (3m): 2,575,550
Market Cap: 2.02B
P/E (ttm): 13.16
EPS (ttm): 1.21
Div & Yield: 1.80 (9.80%)

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
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SECURITY CAPITAL ASS (NYSE:SCA)

Last Trade: 1.83
Trade Time: 2:48PM ET
Change: 0.33 (15.12%)
Prev Close: 2.15
Open: 2.11
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 14.20

Day's Range: 1.50 - 2.11
52wk Range: 1.65 - 34.58
Volume: 948,488
Avg Vol (3m): 1,927,990
Market Cap: 119.17M
P/E (ttm): 12.85
EPS (ttm): 0.142
Div & Yield: 0.08 (3.70%)

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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BooDog
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2 Good Reasons to Sell Now
By Richard Gibbons January 14, 2008
29
Recommendations
I just realized that the market is down almost 10% since October. So I panicked, sold every single stock I own, and invested the proceeds in goat dung futures. (We are in a commodities boom, you know, and dung can be used to heat a house in the winter!)

Umm, not really.

A drop in the markets can be frightening, but it shouldn't make you sell. When you buy a stock, it's because you think that the stock is worth more than its current price. If the stock falls, but nothing else has changed, then it has become a better deal because it's cheaper. So you should be thinking about buying, not selling, at times like these.

Successful value investors like Warren Buffett act this way. He doesn't panic and dump shares when the market falls, but rather looks upon the drop as a buying opportunity.

However, even with this philosophy, there are two very good reasons for selling now.

Something has changed
For some businesses, the world has changed. Consider the bond insurers Ambac Financial (NYSE: ABK) and Security Capital Assurance (NYSE: SCA). Six months ago, everything was smooth sailing for these companies, with investment-grade ratings and well-established positions in a growing market. Since then, the market for asset-backed securities (ABS) has collapsed. These companies may have to make good on the insurance that they sold, and they're at risk of a ratings downgrade if they don't raise capital.

But it's even worse than that. Should anyone actually have faith in these companies' investment-grade ratings after seeing ACA Capital Holdings fall from A to CCC overnight? I'm pretty suspicious. I believe that these insurers already don't deserve their AAA ratings, but haven't been downgraded because Moody's (NYSE: MCO) and Standard & Poor's are worried that a downgrade would cause cascading downgrades throughout the debt market.

Fear the fear
These ratings fears -- real or not -- will affect these businesses. Would you buy insurance from a company that you thought might have difficulties paying a claim? Of course not! And if customers become reluctant to buy, then the prospects for Ambac and Security Capital have materially changed -- the fair values of these companies have fallen. They may or may not be bargains at these prices. I have no clue. But if you bought them trusting in their AAA ratings and the strength of their businesses, it's not too late to re-evaluate these companies and potentially sell.

Of course, the damage isn't limited to the mortgage insurers. If you own a lender, a homebuilder, or any other company tied to the housing market, you should reappraise the business in light of current conditions. Often, you'll reach the conclusion that the business is still attractive. But be prepared to sell if it's not.

Time for an upgrade
The other really good reason to sell is to upgrade your portfolio, dropping weak businesses and acquiring the strong. This is particularly relevant in this market, where there are so many high-quality but inexpensive stocks available.

To start with, look closely at the balance sheets of the stocks you own. We may be entering a recession, so it's becoming riskier to own highly leveraged companies. If the recession impacts their cash flow, they'll have a harder time paying off their debt.

For example, I recently considered buying Ashford Hospitality Trust (NYSE: AHT), which looks extremely cheap when you compare its price to its book value and funds from operations (a proxy for earnings in the REIT sector). But when I realized that its debt-to-equity ratio was twice that of competitors like Host Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: HST), I decided to pass. Though Ashford looks cheap, I'd rather own Host going into a recession.

And even if you aren't worried about the balance sheet, it makes sense to sell weaker businesses to buy high-quality stocks. For instance, even though tiny, second-tier drug manufacturer King Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: KG) is cheap, it may make sense to sell that stock and buy AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN). AstraZeneca is only a bit more expensive than King, but is in a better competitive position because of its patents, research, and financial strength.

The Foolish bottom line
So, during times like these, look to upgrade your portfolio. According to our calculations at Inside Value, there are quite a few quality stocks trading at 40%, 50%, and even 60% discounts to their fair value.

When you can buy at such a huge discount, it makes sense to sell an undervalued good business to acquire a deeply undervalued, great business. If you want a head start, we offer a free trial to Inside Value to anyone who's interested in reading about the best bargains in the market today.

Fool contributor Richard Gibbons knows why manhole covers are round, but not why his head is. He owns shares of King Pharmaceuticals and as of last Thursday is short Moody's puts. Moody's is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick. The Fool's disclosure policy enthralls.

http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2008/01/14/2-good-reasons-to-sell-now.aspx

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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BooDog
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Bond insurers surge on possible regulatory help
Ambac mulls strategic alternatives; New York trying to attract more capital
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:38 p.m. EST Jan. 22, 2008Print E-mail RSS Disable Live Quotes
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Bond insurers saw their shares surge on Tuesday on hopes that regulators will prop up the ailing industry by attracting new capital.
The interim chief executive of Ambac Financial Group (ABK:AMBAC Inc
News, chart, profile, more
Last: 7.97+1.77+28.55%
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bond-insurers-surge-possible-regulatory/st ory.aspx?guid=%7BF573F110%2D7D4E%2D4A4D%2D8D5D%2D5C1213D5FA09%7D&siteid=yhoof


Riding SCA

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
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M B I A INC (NYSE:MBI)

After Hours: 16.02 0.59 (3.55%) as of 4:15PM ET on 01/23/08

Last Trade: 16.61
Trade Time: 4:07PM ET
Change: 4.08 (32.56%)
Prev Close: 12.53
Open: 11.81
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 26.67

Day's Range: 11.81 - 17.55
52wk Range: 6.75 - 76.02
Volume: 27,910,923
Avg Vol (3m): 12,791,900
Market Cap: 2.08B
P/E (ttm): 3.98
EPS (ttm): 4.18
Div & Yield: 1.36 (15.90%)

Up from 8.55
---------------------
SECURITY CAPITAL ASS (NYSE:SCA)

After Hours: 3.45 0.34 (8.97%) as of 4:14PM ET on 01/23/08

Last Trade: 3.79
Trade Time: 4:07PM ET
Change: 1.64 (76.28%)
Prev Close: 2.15
Open: 2.34
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 9.10

Day's Range: 2.08 - 3.88
52wk Range: 1.50 - 34.58
Volume: 2,555,108
Avg Vol (3m): 1,917,240
Market Cap: 247.49M
P/E (ttm): 26.69
EPS (ttm): 0.14
Div & Yield: 0.08 (4.80%)

Up from 1.65

-----------------------------------
WASHINGTON MUTUAL (NYSE:WM)

After Hours: 16.10 0.00 (0.00%) as of 4:13PM ET on 01/23/08

Last Trade: 16.10
Trade Time: 4:07PM ET
Change: 1.33 (9.00%)
Prev Close: 14.77
Open: 14.34
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 14.34

Day's Range: 13.98 - 16.18
52wk Range: 10.73 - 45.81
Volume: 61,364,779
Avg Vol (3m): 36,251,900
Market Cap: 13.99B
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): -0.11
Div & Yield: 0.60 (4.40%)

Up from 13.55
===============================
NATL CITY CP (NYSE:NCC)

After Hours: 15.50 0.06 (0.39%) as of 4:19PM ET on 01/23/08

Last Trade: 15.44
Trade Time: 4:07PM ET
Change: 0.15 (0.98%)
Prev Close: 15.29
Open: 14.51
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 16.17

Day's Range: 14.27 - 16.80
52wk Range: 12.64 - 38.94
Volume: 29,057,115
Avg Vol (3m): 8,670,200
Market Cap: 9.79B
P/E (ttm): 6.31
EPS (ttm): 2.45
Div & Yield: 0.84 (5.90%)

Up from 14.33

============================================

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (NYSE:AGO)

After Hours: 18.9055 1.7245 (8.36%) as of 4:16PM ET on 01/23/08

Last Trade: 20.63
Trade Time: 4:07PM ET
Change: 2.84 (15.96%)
Prev Close: 17.79
Open: 17.40
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 30.71

Day's Range: 16.81 - 20.75
52wk Range: N/A
Volume: 3,459,084
Avg Vol (3m): 1,901,660
Market Cap: 1.40B
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): -0.011
Div & Yield: 0.16 (0.90%)

Up from 17.46

========================================

FIRST HORIZON NTL CP (NYSE:FHN)

After Hours: 19.15 0.27 (1.43%) as of 4:20PM ET on 01/23/08

Last Trade: 18.88
Trade Time: 4:07PM ET
Change: 2.68 (16.54%)
Prev Close: 16.20
Open: 15.75
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 17.59

Day's Range: 15.75 - 19.15
52wk Range: 14.79 - 45.44
Volume: 3,499,272
Avg Vol (3m): 2,640,530
Market Cap: 2.39B
P/E (ttm): 15.56
EPS (ttm): 1.21
Div & Yield: 1.80 (11.20%)

Up from 16.05
==============================

Now if I would have had some mula to play all of those?????

Sweet!

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

Posts: 7754 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
BooDog
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Escaped from sca with a nice gain a lil over 100%. Was setting things up for a nice break out right before my stop loss kicked in and smacked me upside the head. 10 mins later the news came out. Their trip AAA (which was really only AA) was slashed down to just A. And down she went. Along with some of the others. Was nice while it lasted.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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BooDog
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http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080212/wall_street.html?.v=10

and

Premarket Movers: Bond Insurers Gain
Tuesday February 12, 9:30 am ET
Buffett Bailout Offer Boosts Bond Insurers; Masco, General Motors Fall in Early Session

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080212/premarket_movers.html?.v=1

Lows may be coming to a close. We'll see.

--------------------
All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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