posted
This, imho, is critical, courtesy of macdrsirules:
quote:Broke my rule of trading ...
Me, myself? on prolly 3/4 of my losses, I broke a rule that I had set for myself...
And here's one of the first rules, I really believe this: during your "paper-trade" days? KEEP a JOURNAL. Doesn't matter whether you use a Blackberry or a Big Chief notebook.
Then before you start trading for real? Take time to organize your thoughts, based on your notes and questions from that journal.
Seriously? I wish I had kept mine going...
In fact, as I write this, I'm thinking I will revive my journal...
posted
#1 Rule, never fall in love with a stock. #2 Rule, take profits on a pre-determind percentage. #3 Rule, use a stop loss system that works for you.And stick TO IT! #4 Rule, conserve the bulk of your money for the Big Boards. #5 Rule, Pinks and OTCBB'S can be and usually are, for suckers.
quote:Originally posted by buckstalker: Hey Grynder...long time, no see....hope everything is well...
quote:Originally posted by Grynder:
quote:Originally posted by buckstalker: Personally, I have done MUCH better making money in real estate than in any form of investing. Real estate is much easier to put a value on, and I can be 99% certain when I buy a property, that I am going to make a profit when I sell it. Stocks on the other hand are almost impossible to put a fair value on and prices are manipulated by too many forces...
Theres yer money maker, Real Estate....
Goin good Buck, been a good year at the Grynders homestead. Hope the same for you and yours. Looks like some folks are having a rough time lately. Hope everyone gets back to happy real soon.
G.
-------------------- On the other hand,
you have different fingers. Posts: 894 | From: Arizona. It's a dry heat ! | Registered: Dec 2004
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posted
I have got to be honest with you all. If you think T/A does not work they its because you dont know how to use it. I have studied and applied T/A to my daily plays and its worth it 10 fold, maybe you are just not using the correct T/A indicators. Let me know if you need help
Posts: 399 | Registered: Jan 2005
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posted
I like T/A too actually. And of course momo, volume, hype, news, ... Posts: 1363 | From: Somebody from Europe | Registered: Sep 2005
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posted
fishfarmer, basically used to mean analyzing charts (TA) vs analyzing fundamentals (FA), such as profit/loss, earnings ratios, etc.
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Stockanalyzer, all I'm saying is, pennies not as chartable as bigger issues or forrex; issue's chart may show it's about the blow, but then it sits, waiting on volume...
lol, that being said, I'm also glad to have your IM . . . thanks for the offer
posted
Now I have doubts you guys studied TA carefully, since you already misinterpreted my first post. I said explicitly at the beginning: my TA work does not apply to pennies. Read carefully. That's the only way to become a successful trader. Do not get me wrong, I'm a successful trader, but I'm challenging the technical aspect of it.
Stock_Analyzer wrote: "I have got to be honest with you all. If you think T/A does not work they its because you dont know how to use it. I have studied and applied T/A to my daily plays and its worth it 10 fold, maybe you are just not using the correct T/A indicators. Let me know if you need help"
I'm going to answer you like this: there is no incorrect T/A indicators. I agree, they have different levels of importance. Moreover I can say that you misunderstood TA in the first place. In technical analysis the goal is to identify a chart pattern and then back it up by other technical indicators (the more the better), not the other way around. Looking only or first into technical indicators with out knowing what the price is doing is completely incorrect.
Fish Farmer: TA – Technical Analysis – weight of evidence approach. It’s a technique for predicting future security prices and market directions based on things like: trading volume, change of price, price patterns, trends, peaks, bottoms, and all other measurable factors affecting stock prices. Most of the time you’re looking into price history in order to predict the future. It’s an art, not a methodology. The biggest evil is having little knowledge of TA. You will find yourself seeing price patterns or buy/sell signals everywhere.
Posts: 15 | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
Considering that TA is an art, it is probably the pennies that are the problem. At any rate, should probably combine TA with some real world information about the stock. TA can't predict when expected news will break.
Also, it's a lot easier to make 5% than 10%, but playing multiple 5%'s on more stable stocks goes contrary to greed-playing (even though it pays off better).
Another thing to think about: do you build your trust in a stock or do you prefer 1-night stands? It is always tempting to just dive right in, but if you take a wait-and-watch stance, it might save you some $. Sure, you might miss out on some of the profit, but positive gain of any small amount is better than finding out that the CEO was lying all along....
[ December 21, 2005, 09:50: Message edited by: Thorn ]
-------------------- May your trading build your character as well as your portfolio. Posts: 1762 | Registered: Jan 2005
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quote:Originally posted by crockett: [QUOTE]Originally posted by welk: [qb] Every time I try and trade by the charts I lose my ass. Almost every time I trade by my gut and by what I see in the L2's I almost always come out ahead.
So true for me too, crockett. I have made about 5 trades based on gut and all were winners. I have made hundreds of trades based on perfect TA setups that, most of the time, piffed out and went nowhere.
In 2006, I am going to start trusting my instincts more. I forget the book I recently read about why TA is a scam. It was by a big Wall Street player. He basically said, in a nutshell, that Wall Street is one big poker game of bluffs and the MMs use TA to take money from sucker's who believe in it. LOL! He also referred to it as "the many headed hydra" explaining that technicians will always have some justification for why TA fails. Oh, well, that was a perfect pennant but you didn't check the CCI, or the STO, or the RSI, or the BBs, etc. It's true, they always have some out for themselves.
I don't believe in trading fundamentals either. I've seen bad news send stocks up and good news send em down.
What I have seen that works is momentum. One of my 5 most succesful trades was a buy of Siri at 1.15 and a sale at 2.05. I never checked the chart. It was going across the CNBC ticker like crazy in early December of that year so I thought it was hot. I bought it and virtually doubled my money in 3 weeks!
There is something to the instinct play.
-------------------- Flip stocks. Never invest in them. Take your profits. All is my opinion. Do your own DD. Posts: 948 | Registered: Aug 2005
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-------------------- Flip stocks. Never invest in them. Take your profits. All is my opinion. Do your own DD. Posts: 948 | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
Here's why I say that their's an upper limit to day trading. Take my example of someone who want to daytrade $100 billion a day. I say it can't be done. First of all, what percent of a company can you own and be able to get in and out in the same day. Let's say you could buy 1% of a company and durring the same day sell that same company. That sounds high. Now how many stocks can a daytrader handle durring a single day. Let's say a daytrader could handle buying and watching 100 stocks per day and assuming that he can do a good job and study the charts, L2s, news etc. $100 billion / 100 stocks = $1 billion per stock. Now if he is not going to buy more then 1% of a company, he is limited to stocks with a market cap of $100 billion or more. There is another question: how many stocks are there worth taking a position in? If I look at 100 stocks how many will be worth taking a position in? I would guess it would be much less then half. In any case there is only 31 publicly traded companies with a market cap over $100 billion, but we needed 100.
This does not mean that daytrading could not be done with a smaller amount. I'm just not sure what that smaller amount is. I'm guessing that it couldn't be outside the millions range.
Posts: 117 | From: Indiana | Registered: Sep 2005
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quote:Originally posted by BuyTex: fishfarmer, basically used to mean analyzing charts (TA) vs analyzing fundamentals (FA), such as profit/loss, earnings ratios, etc.
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Stockanalyzer, all I'm saying is, pennies not as chartable as bigger issues or forrex; issue's chart may show it's about the blow, but then it sits, waiting on volume...
lol, that being said, I'm also glad to have your IM . . . thanks for the offer
Very True. But you have to incorporate both TA/FA in order to get an accurate count. Pennys are very hard to use TA on very unpredictable in the way that you cann't short it. "legaly anyway".
They don't have patterns that you could actually draw a line or pin point. Most of it is all on NEWS of the day or week ETC.
Big Caps are different. TA/FA could be extremely helpful with them. I would go with TA/FA over news anyday of the week on Big Caps. JMHO
Posts: 541 | From: Virginia | Registered: Nov 2005
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posted
To me daytrading does not represent great wealth but flexibility. I currently plow through ever day at work in this rat race of an existence. I dream that someday I will be able to make enough money to pay the mortgage, along with all of the other bills, save for the future, and take a vacation purely on my stock trading ability. To me, daytrading fulltime would give me a life I strive for. If I could reach the point where I could make $60,000 a year trading after taxes, I would quit the rat race and live the life of a daytrader. No commute. No office politics. No people at work. Just me, my account, my cat, and my wife. God, that would be amazing.
-------------------- Flip stocks. Never invest in them. Take your profits. All is my opinion. Do your own DD. Posts: 948 | Registered: Aug 2005
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quote:Originally posted by welk: To me daytrading does not represent great wealth but flexibility. I currently plow through ever day at work in this rat race of an existence. I dream that someday I will be able to make enough money to pay the mortgage, along with all of the other bills, save for the future, and take a vacation purely on my stock trading ability. To me, daytrading fulltime would give me a life I strive for. If I could reach the point where I could make $60,000 a year trading after taxes, I would quit the rat race and live the life of a daytrader. No commute. No office politics. No people at work. Just me, my account, my cat, and my wife. God, that would be amazing.
5 yrs of that Life for me. It is Great.
Posts: 541 | From: Virginia | Registered: Nov 2005
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posted
Do you mind sharing your "secret" with me? How did you make the transition? How large of an acct did it take? Please, for the love of God, help me realize this dream. LOL!
-------------------- Flip stocks. Never invest in them. Take your profits. All is my opinion. Do your own DD. Posts: 948 | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
Bigbuyer, please see previous question. Thanks!
-------------------- Flip stocks. Never invest in them. Take your profits. All is my opinion. Do your own DD. Posts: 948 | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
i will make this short since i dont have the time to give a full reply... but anyone who puts a stop/loss at 4% will always get stopped out... stop losses should always be at 8% to 10% or higher depending on the person (and adjust it accordingly as your stock makes a uptrend)... MM's know that people have their stop/losses up to 7% and will try to stop you out... 2nd .. real estate is like the stock market.. what goes up will come down eventually... so to stay real estate is 99% to make you a profit is not being realistic... nothing is fool proof.... also.. anyone who listens to their "broker" on what to buy is not doing technical analysis... they are a fool parting with their money... and on and on... i will make a further reply when i have the time... feel free to comment on this one....
-------------------- Money Never Sleeps Pal.
Greed, for the lack of a better word is GOOD. Posts: 3841 | Registered: Mar 2004
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quote:Originally posted by welk: Bigbuyer, please see previous question. Thanks!
It was really by accident. I moved from Up North to Virginia because of my work transfer then got laid off. BRRR! We sold everything in NYC too move which gave us Alot of cash. I wasn't able to find a job in my feild down here. My wife Got a good job here with some awesome benefits and that left me looking for work.
I started to take time off of looking around for work and started trading. I made a few good deals. I started with about 5,000 and never looked back.
So. Thats my story in short. All by accident. If I didn't get laid off I would be still doing the 12 hr work thing for pennys.
Just start slow. I only invest/Trade 5% of my total portfolio in penny stocks. It's way to risky to do any more. Most of my positions are in the Big Caps.
Gl.
Posts: 541 | From: Virginia | Registered: Nov 2005
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posted
It is very interesting how people twist and change my point in order to prove me incorrect. I am happy everyone has a point, but do not change the facts when stating your reasons.
Machiavelli: 82% of my 4% stops that "went through" also passed the 10% mark within few days. 4% mark was the only thing that was saving my account. The other 18% never made up the loss. This kind of trading is mathematically unsuccessful.
Posts: 15 | Registered: Dec 2005
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I dont know how much you trade but it seems to me that you do not practice patience.. I am only guessing you trade frequently (i know you swingtrade) but what i mean by patience is that you always need to be in a "position" instead of being patient and waiting for that right stock whether you have to wait days, weeks or months till that stock comes along (read How I made $2,000,000 in the stock market by Nicolas Darvas to see how he practiced patience among other good advice he gives from his own experiences)... instead of being patient and looking for all indicators and other things you use in TA line up and then enter a stock.. it is much like poker.. you will fold the majority of your starting hands (i am using 7 card stud since that is what i play) till you get that right starting hand (I would start with a pair of Jacks with a king or ace kicker then start with a pair of 2's with no kicker... if you don't know what i mean in poker jargon in terms of kicker etc.. someone will explain if not i will) ... anyways perhaps that is what you are doing with your trades... playing small "pairs" with no kickers... difficult to explain unless you are a poker player as well... anyways 82% is way high and you are doing something wrong.. and 4% (if that is what you are comfortable with then start your stop/loss at 8% or higher and as the stock goes into a uptrend then make your stop/losses lower so you lock in some of your profit already if you get triggered out) stop/losses is and always will be too low of a stop/loss (practice patience and try the 8 % stop/losses)... 4% isnt saving your account much since you are getting hit with commissions and whatever other fee's your broker hits you with ... and as i stated.. entering a stock position based on tips whether from your broker or other so called "traders" is not TA and is the wrong way to trade... Practice patience and don't trade everyday... there is no law or rule stating you must be in a stock position every business trading day... if you see no stocks that meet your Technical factors then don't trade that day.. wait till there is a stock that meets your criteria... there is always tomorrow or another day to enter a stock position... a 4% stop/loss means you scare to easy, don't do your DD well , don't practice patience etc.. and perhaps you should just put your money in a mutual fund where professional money managers can make the decisions for you and perhaps manage your money better then you can...
-------------------- Money Never Sleeps Pal.
Greed, for the lack of a better word is GOOD. Posts: 3841 | Registered: Mar 2004
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quote:Originally posted by BuyTex: love your posts and insight, as you know, and agree the bulk of the time but most can not place stops on pennies...
agreed, a small point among your overall perspective...
and definitely worth knowing, that MMs and other traders will place orders designed to trigger stops, yes?
that is why they should switch to Choicetrade if they want stop/losses on pennies lol especially if they trade the majority of their money in pennies... as for MM's and other traders trying to trigger stops.. most inexperienced "traders" dont realize that MM's do this and wonder why there low stop/losses get triggered all the time... the rule of thumb is that MM's/Traders know most have their stop/losses at around 7% and below...
-------------------- Money Never Sleeps Pal.
Greed, for the lack of a better word is GOOD. Posts: 3841 | Registered: Mar 2004
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