posted
For the entire 2005 I lived and breathed technical analysis and swing trading. I came to a sad conclusion. Simply, TA and swing trading does not make money. Obviously I did not test my strategy in the “penny land”. That would be completely incorrect.
After six months of continues study (reading 20 books on TA, swing trading, and learning all possible tips from “brokers”) I started trading. Six months of trading left my account at exactly the same position. I had no loss, but I gained nothing either. Actually I lost about $350 on fees (never made it up). You could say I broke even.
Most of my trades were negative, but thanks to the 4% stop loss strategy I was able to “come back the next day”. True, some trades made me about 20%, but there were few of them, because most of the time the 4% stop was taken out before the stock breaks up.
In my office on the wall I had a list of the greatest tips collected along the way. During every trade I would read the list and turn off my emotions completely. The goal was to approach this from a purely technical point of view.
My “best” price patterns were: true double bottom (very rare) for going long and broadening wedge ascending for going short. Here I must note that most of the “brokers”, traders and technical analysts I met online and at brokerage firms are very weak. 80% of the time they identify incorrect or incomplete price patterns. To me a price pattern not being backed up by other western or eastern (candle sticks) technical indicators is a loss.
I’m a successful real estate investor and I had achieved a lot of things in my life simply due to the fact that I worked hard. I’m not sure working hard by mastering TA and swing trading strategy is successful. When I started reading on technical analysis I was very much against the long term strategy. Now I have doubts about what’s more economical.
Would like to hear what others have to say.
“In this game, the market has to keep pitching, but you don’t have to swing. You can stand there with the bat on your shoulders for six months until you get a fat pitch.”
[ December 20, 2005, 14:08: Message edited by: TA Inferno ]
Posts: 15 | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
Personally, I have done MUCH better making money in real estate than in any form of investing. Real estate is much easier to put a value on, and I can be 99% certain when I buy a property, that I am going to make a profit when I sell it. Stocks on the other hand are almost impossible to put a fair value on and prices are manipulated by too many forces...
-------------------- ------------------------- It's all in the timing.... Posts: 3085 | From: The Motor City | Registered: Dec 2003
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I have to say... I lost over $18,000.00 trading this year and never recovered... all because of lies by the CEO's of those companies I supported... Read my post(s) and you will see which ones.
There is no way I will penny trade in 2006... there may be some out there that have been successful!!! but my guess it's very few... The investors are not playing on a level playing field... plain and simple.
2004 was a good year for me and got me hooked... just like winning a jackpot in a casino... YOU WILL BE BACK!!!
I have spent countless hours researching on my computer... I should have been out working a second job and making money instead of lining the pockets of some fat *** CEO.
My money will go into brick and mortar investments from here on out... I'll invest my money in GE, Wal-Mart, Microsoft... Pennies are just a dream for investors... some may make it, but I bet for every one that does a thousand investors are losing their ***...
I have been trading pennies since 2001 and with the time spent on DD I probably made .01 an hour... LOL.
Good people here at Allstocks... don't get sucked in...
Get the word out...
mizzou7
quote:Originally posted by TA Inferno: For the entire 2005 I lived and breathed technical analysis and swing trading. I came to a sad conclusion. Simply, TA and swing trading does not make money. Obviously I did not test my strategy in the “penny land”. That would be completely incorrect.
After six months of continues study (reading 20 books on TA, swing trading, and learning all possible tips from “brokers”) I started trading. Six months of trading left my account at exactly the same position. I had no loss, but I gained nothing either. Actually I lost about $350 on fees (never made it up). You could say I broke even.
Most of my trades were negative, but thanks to the 4% stop loss strategy I was able to “come back the next day”. True, some trades made me about 20%, but there were few of them, because most of the time the 4% stop was taken out before the stock breaks up.
In my office on the wall I had a list of the greatest tips collected along the way. During every trade I would read the list and turn off my emotions completely. The goal was to approach this from a purely technical point of view.
My “best” price patterns were: true double bottom (very rare) for going long and broadening wedge ascending for going short. Here I must note that most of the “brokers”, traders and technical analysts I met online and at brokerage firms are very weak. 80% of the time they identify incorrect or incomplete price patterns. To me a price pattern not being backed up by other western or eastern (candle sticks) technical indicators is a loss.
I’m a successful real estate investor and I had achieved a lot of things in my life simply due to the fact that I worked hard. I’m not sure working hard by mastering TA and swing trading strategy is successful. When I started reading on technical analysis I was very much against the long term strategy. Now I have doubts about what’s more economical.
Would like to hear what others have to say.
“In this game, the market has to keep pitching, but you don’t have to swing. You can stand there with the bat on your shoulders for six months until you get a fat pitch.”
posted
I used to revere TA as if it were a religion. Read every book, studied charts until i was hypnotized, could id any pattern, etc (the usual symptoms). After losing my arse trading charts, i finally realized that momo (volume) is all that matters.................
Play the momo. Play the momo! PLAY THE MOMO!
-------------------- Flip stocks. Never invest in them. Take your profits. All is my opinion. Do your own DD. Posts: 948 | Registered: Aug 2005
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quote:Originally posted by buckstalker: Personally, I have done MUCH better making money in real estate than in any form of investing. Real estate is much easier to put a value on, and I can be 99% certain when I buy a property, that I am going to make a profit when I sell it. Stocks on the other hand are almost impossible to put a fair value on and prices are manipulated by too many forces...
Theres yer money maker, Real Estate....
-------------------- On the other hand,
you have different fingers. Posts: 894 | From: Arizona. It's a dry heat ! | Registered: Dec 2004
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posted
I actually think TA works. I have been concentrating on it this year and have been sucessful. I guess it all depends on the person. I know that not everyone feels the same as myself but for me it is beneficial. Good luck everyone.
Posts: 314 | Registered: Oct 2005
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posted
Hey Grynder...long time, no see....hope everything is well...
quote:Originally posted by Grynder:
quote:Originally posted by buckstalker: Personally, I have done MUCH better making money in real estate than in any form of investing. Real estate is much easier to put a value on, and I can be 99% certain when I buy a property, that I am going to make a profit when I sell it. Stocks on the other hand are almost impossible to put a fair value on and prices are manipulated by too many forces...
Theres yer money maker, Real Estate....
-------------------- ------------------------- It's all in the timing.... Posts: 3085 | From: The Motor City | Registered: Dec 2003
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posted
It has just been a bear market. In a bear market there are fewer breakouts... fewer continuations and fewer rebounds. Makes our job more difficlt but not impossible. Popular T/A has come about because of a hundred years of detailed research by some of the smartest people to trade stocks... I sincerely doubt that they were wrong and anyone on a chat board is right.
-------------------- Spend Word For Word With Me And I Shall Make Your Wit Bankrupt. Posts: 1326 | From: Here | Registered: Oct 2005
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quote:Originally posted by welk: I used to revere TA as if it were a religion. Read every book, studied charts until i was hypnotized, could id any pattern, etc (the usual symptoms). After losing my arse trading charts, i finally realized that momo (volume) is all that matters.................
Play the momo. Play the momo! PLAY THE MOMO!
You know I'm glad I'm not the only one that sees that. Every time I try and trade by the charts I lose my ass. Almost every time I trade by my gut and by what I see in the L2's I almost always come out ahead.
I think it's been said time and time again but no one listens to it, even myself. Never fall in love with a penny stock.
Yet time and time again, I see 100 page long topics on this stock or that. I've fallen victim to it myself and I sucker myself in because this company or that one, looks great from all the DD. Yet how many of them ever fly? Then if they do how long did you have to wait stuck in it to get the full ride?
I think it was in rickpic's post on is $500 acount that I saw this quote. The otcbb is the day traders market.
I find that to be oh so true.
Posts: 462 | From: FL | Registered: Oct 2003
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posted
Crockett, I have a friend whose best friend (who i have not met) is a daytrader -- full time. he said he never looks at a chart and believs they are worthless. He only plays momo. My 2006 new year's resolution is to stop looking at charts so much and just focus on the momo. Take hurricane katrina, for example -- you could have bought any stock in the cleanup area and it would have made you a bundle, even if you never DDd the co or looked at the chart.
-------------------- Flip stocks. Never invest in them. Take your profits. All is my opinion. Do your own DD. Posts: 948 | Registered: Aug 2005
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quote:Originally posted by welk: Crockett, I have a friend whose best friend (who i have not met) is a daytrader -- full time. he said he never looks at a chart and believs they are worthless. He only plays momo. My 2006 new year's resolution is to stop looking at charts so much and just focus on the momo. Take hurricane katrina, for example -- you could have bought any stock in the cleanup area and it would have made you a bundle, even if you never DDd the co or looked at the chart.
Agreed here. After losing out to IGTN a few months back and taking a small break from trading, the only thing I have done is played the momo since I've been back. From GZFX, to RVMN, and now FCDH. The only 2 stocks I'm holding long now are AMEP and CWFG which I hope to sell on the momo if it ever gets there.
With too much crap going on with the MM's and CEO liars, momo is the only way you know you're gonna make out just as long as you don't get too greedy and keep upticking your limit sells.
Unfortunately, with momo runs there will always be a bag holder. So play smart.
Posts: 680 | From: san francisco | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
Being a one sided trader is not wise. You gotta watch everything... news, sec filings, charts, momo.... everything. I like to play pretty much anything... I'll jump on a momentum play... follow volume around.... read message boards looking for good hype.... I apply charts to these plays as entry and exit strategies... I also play strictly chart plays as well... Last one was TSCM which I saw at five bux... nice pennant formation... now seven bucks. It all works... just not all the time.
-------------------- Spend Word For Word With Me And I Shall Make Your Wit Bankrupt. Posts: 1326 | From: Here | Registered: Oct 2005
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quote:Originally posted by RiescoDiQui: Being a one sided trader is not wise. You gotta watch everything... news, sec filings, charts, momo.... everything. I like to play pretty much anything... I'll jump on a momentum play... follow volume around.... read message boards looking for good hype.... I apply charts to these plays as entry and exit strategies... I also play strictly chart plays as well... Last one was TSCM which I saw at five bux... nice pennant formation... now seven bucks. It all works... just not all the time.
This is true also. I think of trading as a martial art. For the masses, think of it as jeet kune do founded by the famous Bruce Lee. His teachings basically said learn many different styles and take what works best for you. In my case, it's a little TA and momo plays off news and speculation combined. The more you arm yourself and utilize the many different tools, the better. If you're a stand-up fighter and that's all you know, you will get pounded if taken to the ground but keep your tools simple.
Posts: 680 | From: san francisco | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
I watched a guy who was making a million a year with day trading with account value of about $200,000 I think and he watched L2's almost exclusively. Never watched much of anything based on the past.
Posts: 352 | From: Marietta, GA | Registered: Nov 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Skyman: I watched a guy who was making a million a year with day trading with account value of about $200,000 I think and he watched L2's almost exclusively. Never watched much of anything based on the past.
He could have made that in a couple of weeks playing the momo off FCDH LOL!
Posts: 680 | From: san francisco | Registered: Aug 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Skyman: I watched a guy who was making a million a year with day trading with account value of about $200,000 I think and he watched L2's almost exclusively. Never watched much of anything based on the past.
He could have made that in a couple of weeks playing the momo off FCDH LOL!
thats because L2s represent the most basic factor of economics supply and demand if there are 10 people on the bid and only 1 on the ask its pretty much about to explode up thats just how it works when more people want to buy than sell
-------------------- "The Americans will always do the right thing... After they've exhausted all the alternatives." - Winston Churchill Posts: 428 | From: indiana | Registered: Apr 2005
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quote:Originally posted by RiescoDiQui: Being a one sided trader is not wise. You gotta watch everything... news, sec filings, charts, momo.... everything. I like to play pretty much anything... I'll jump on a momentum play... follow volume around.... read message boards looking for good hype.... I apply charts to these plays as entry and exit strategies... I also play strictly chart plays as well... Last one was TSCM which I saw at five bux... nice pennant formation... now seven bucks. It all works... just not all the time.
This is true also. I think of trading as a martial art. For the masses, think of it as jeet kune do founded by the famous Bruce Lee. His teachings basically said learn many different styles and take what works best for you. In my case, it's a little TA and momo plays off news and speculation combined. The more you arm yourself and utilize the many different tools, the better. If you're a stand-up fighter and that's all you know, you will get pounded if taken to the ground but keep your tools simple.
Yea I agree with that as well. when I say only L2's in reality I do watch the charts as well. I mainly do it for past trends and so on.
My problem is I have never really learned how to properly read the charts, so I just take from them what ever info I can see and then watch the L2's.
So because of that I have learned to depend mostly on what the L2's are doing right now. I've been thinking since I started that I shouldn't do that, because everyone puts so much value on the charts that I must be missing something.
I'm so glad to hear that others are trading the same way, so it kind of proves the method is legit to me.
RiescoDiQui I will say some of your commits have rubbed me the wrong way from time to time.. However I have seen you post some real useful info from the charts. So I aways bite my tounge..lol
I think I'm going to make it my new years resolution to learn these damn charts. I think you are right about it not being wise to only watch one thing. If for nothing else it will help me better pick stocks that may run in the future, because as of right now.. I'm just doing day to day picks.
Posts: 462 | From: FL | Registered: Oct 2003
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quote:Originally posted by Skyman: I watched a guy who was making a million a year with day trading with account value of about $200,000 I think and he watched L2's almost exclusively. Never watched much of anything based on the past.
He could have made that in a couple of weeks playing the momo off FCDH LOL!
thats because L2s represent the most basic factor of economics supply and demand if there are 10 people on the bid and only 1 on the ask its pretty much about to explode up thats just how it works when more people want to buy than sell
Exactly, with L2's you are in essence factoring momo and volume being brought in.
Posts: 680 | From: san francisco | Registered: Aug 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Skyman: I watched a guy who was making a million a year with day trading with account value of about $200,000 I think and he watched L2's almost exclusively. Never watched much of anything based on the past.
Thats about 2% per day in 260 trading days, if the whole account were used. With that kind of cash though you could hold and wait for the pop.
-------------------- Well done is better than well said. Ben Franklin Posts: 718 | From: Bay Area, CA | Registered: Aug 2005
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posted
welk: I used to revere TA as if it were a religion. Read every book, studied charts until i was hypnotized, could id any pattern, etc (the usual symptoms). After losing my arse trading charts, i finally realized that momo (volume) is all that matters.................
Play the momo. Play the momo! PLAY THE MOMO!
------------------------------------------------
You are 100% correct. MOMO. Charts are as worthless as you know what on a bore hog.
Posts: 675 | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
I agree Dustoff, you can help your trades by good analysis, but a good luck streak sure helps your analysis look great.
Posts: 2591 | From: ca. | Registered: Jul 2005
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posted
Ok, everyone says Momo... but I for one haven't been very successful. Maybe it's because I'm just new and I don't fully understand... can someone help me?
The problem is, when I think something is running, but 9 times out of 10, I end up getting in at the top! Even with mmic, I got in just a few minutes after the bell, but i still caught the top and had to take a loss.
I guess it's here where I'd say TA is good. But who am I to say, since I'm new? I'm just thinking TA would help you figure out which stocks are due for a run.
Please someone enlighten me... because I believe that momo is the best, but I have yet been able to prove this to myself.
-------------------- Life is like a roll of toilet paper. The closer it gets to the end, the faster it goes.
quote:Originally posted by IWISHIHAD: I agree Dustoff, you can help your trades by good analysis, but a good luck streak sure helps your analysis look great.
----------------------------------------------- LOL, Hey I think my streak starting cooling off today....Didn't hit my goal of 6 figures for the year..But the high 60's I am happy with..
Leaving for Hawaii soon...Gotta couple fishing gigs shaping up over there....
Posts: 10729 | From: oregon | Registered: Feb 2005
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posted
Here's my question. While I would like to believe I could be sucessfull at this daytrading thing, why is it that that there doesn't seem to be anybody who make a name for themselves daytrading. It just seems like the people who've made it big in investing are long term investors like Buffet or Lynch. I know you can find books written by daytraders who claim to let you in on their system. But people like Warren Buffet don't have to write books about about themselves. Other people write books about them. I've yet to hear about a money manager who was sucessfull because he daytraded his client's money. This leads me to two possible conclusions:
1) Daytrading doesn't work
or
2) Daytrading doesn't work with large investments.
I don't want to rule out number 2 too quickly. Take an extream example: If you had 100 billion to invest, could you buy $100 billion in stock and sell it the same day for a profit? Probably not. There must be an upper limit to how much money you can day trade. The question is how high is that upper limit? Is it 1 million? Is it 100 million. I don't know.
Posts: 117 | From: Indiana | Registered: Sep 2005
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