posted
This was posted by kelly leak in response to valuation simple but all true
Posted by: kelly leak
That's the point I'm making with all this local news, from the funds appropiated by Congress for levee rebuild and repair to even the private investments coming into the area....all this work is going to require tremendous amounts of sand and gravel!!
Levees..road bases..bridge approach elevations..concrete mixes..all will need some sand and/or gravel in huge amounts.
I would hazzard to say that our soil and mineral asset base in the Murphy pit..valued at $260-$300 million is worth considerable more than that present day.
Murphy Sand & Gravel division (820 acres)-- Reserves estimated at $260 million (more recent company materials also show $300 million, like the Sept. 6, 2005 PR).
Even using the full A/S as share count and the Murphy assets at only $300 million..that's .30 per share asset value..for Murphy alone!! No Progas..no oil assets..no construction business or other assets..Just Murphy sand and gravel!!! At conservative estimate.
And it's not like the materials aren't in demand..the demand will outstrip supplies IMO. Cheers, Kelly
Posts: 6008 | From: phoenix az | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
This has been really exciting! I think this is the first stock that has ever gone up after I bought it Of course, I'm getting ulcers about where to exit... don't want to miss the top, but also don't want to cut my profits short. GO PBLS!!! GLTA. And thanks Allstocks crew, I'm glad I found you
-------------------- Can I have some money now?
- DC Posts: 488 | From: Northern California | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
Do your DD and you wont have ulcers trying to find an appropriate exit point. Definately hold long regardless of what happens with PPS the next few days/weeks, although I believe the run will continue for a few more days. I think the MMS finally got a handle on their short position, covered, and will now let it ride for a while selling their shares on the way up for a great profit. When PBLS audits are completed and moved to AMEX or larger exchange then very little manipulation will occur. As for now enjoy the ride and if you plan to flip, hope with all your heart that they dont file their financials or you will be disappointed you did not stay in. All in my honest opinion.
Im holding long regardless of PPS in the next few days/weeks, too much for me to risk knowing they will file soon.
Posts: 539 | From: BIG D | Registered: Apr 2005
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Phoenix Associate Land Syndicate, Inc. is a holding company with assets and/or interests in sand & gravel, soil products, land development, oil and natural gas, commodity brokering, plumbing, trucking, contract hauling, construction, swimming pool construction and construction related industries. Its stock is traded publicly on the Pink Sheets Bulletin Board under the symbol: PBLS.
Current Operating Business Units are:
Mining Division Murphy Sand & Gravel D.B.I.
Construction Division Heaslip Construction Ann Arbor Pools Great Lakes Pool Plastering California Plumbing
Trucking Division Bayou State Trucking
Acquisitions/Business Development Rome Oil and Mid-South Resources, Inc. JTW Construction Burke Pool Construction Brazilian Land Sale Log Home Manufacturing
Oil and Gas Division
Brokerage Division
The Phoenix corporate core philosophy is to acquire companies that: Have unrealized profit potential and are willing and eager to work within the Phoenix "family" to improve their company's performance.
Are motivated and need business guidance and/or financial assistance in order to succeed.
Have owners that wish to divest of a company for retirement and/or other personal reasons.
To properly develop and consistently grow as a holding company, other companies such as those described will be added through continued acquisition. This effort will result in an increase in positive cash flow by tapping the sales potential inherent in the newly acquired companies and their assets. As PBLS moves its growth strategy forward, its gross revenue, earnings per share (EPS) and shareholder value will be driven markedly higher, increasing shareholder value.
Address: P.O. Box 1358 Covington, LA 70458-1358 USA
Transfer Agent: Atlas Stock Transfer Corp., Salt Lake City, UT 84107
Some DD by some great Posters on the board. WOW! Bond has been busy. BRAVO!
Done update
2005 Net revenues + Assets- $138,840,092.50 / 346,560,260 = .40PPS
2006 Net revenues + Assets- $245,446,360.00 / 346,560,260 = .71PPS
Few key points:
Even with the cash they lay out for recent purchases, it still equates to assets. You can see by the end of this year, book value will be .40PPS.
I will add the link for the DD page, overview page, and the spreadsheet I made to calculate and keep track of the numbers. It's not the fanciest out there, but it gets the job done. You are welcome to open it up & or save it, and play with the numbers. Tab 3 is the show stopper. I must admit I had no proof or reason to even remotely consider a $1.00+ PPS as many have stated. After today, I now have that proof. If anyone sees errors, I have also added my e-mail to all pages. Enjoy fellow Peeblers.
Member Rated: posted November 16, 2005 08:42 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- These are some of my reasons that I feel that this stock has a huge upside way to go beyound the asset value, which of course is always the solid reason to invest. But there is also another side,which is the method of business and how it unfolds and the factors.
* up to 100 million share buyback just announced * pre existing government contracts that will be expanded upon as work continues after the Katrina hurricane * a fast expanding Oil division purchased with cash and restricted preferred shares (holding the float steady) * a construction division within minutes of thousands of destroyed homes * due diligence by acquired companies willing to take restricted/preferred shares as payment for their companies (tells you a lot about the prospects of PBLS) * fast tract plan to be listed on OTC or a larger board * strong cash flow from each division but especially now the cash cow oil division * a management experienced in acquisitions willing to negotiate without heavy dilutive effects ... usually cash and preferred/restricted shares
456 million outstanding shares, per October 2005 call with Mgmt. Float approx. 159 million
Current Market-cap based of $0.03 PPS = $13.7 million ----------------------------------------------------------
Current Book-value estimated by mgmt (Oct.6) = $45 million Year-end 2005 projected book-value by mgmt (Oct.6) = $60-70 million -----------------------------------------------------------
Projected earnings for 2006 of $10 million, per call with company (pre Katrina, pre oil deal) $10M/ 466M o/s = 2.15 cents per share of earnings Apply a typical 15X multiple for $0.32 share price [A growth multiple would be 25X or $0.54 share price] ---------------------------------------------------------
For 2006 earnings add in all the Katrina work, plus recent/new acquisitions Estimate that to be $25 million for 2006 and assume 100M more restricted shares $25M/566 o/s = 4.4 cents per share of forward looking 2006 earnings Apply a typical 15X multiple for $0.66 share price [A growth multiple would be 25X or $1.10 share price]
(this is just me making a somewhat educated guess) ------------------------------------------------------------
Murphy Sand & Gravel division (820 acres)-- Reserves estimated at $260 million (more recent company materials also show $300 million, like the Sept. 6, 2005 PR).
February 1997 gave us an estimate of “$260 million based on the lowest prices charged by each of the other mining operations in the area for like products” (source: June 14, 2005 news release)
That evaluation is from almost 9 years ago… based on “lowest prices charged”.
Estimate that the sand and gravel property re-evaluation comes in over $600 million (“at least double” Investor Relations, Mike Mulshine 14/9/2005). With 466 million shares out, that’s over $1.28 per share in sand/gravel reserves. ------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Look at this for a plan
PBLS's, Progas Will move Rome's Oil & Gas through USA Pipelines Nov 15, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE)Binding Letter of Intent to Acquire ProGas, Inc. Completed Acquisition is Expected to Add $190 Million in Revenues. The deal, which is expected to close on or before November 30, 2005. http://www.pbls.biz/news.htm ProGas purchases and markets natural gas throughout the eastern United States on both interstate and intrastate pipelines. ProGas offers Long term or monthly supply crude oil is available on nearly all the interstate pipelines servicing the Eastern United States. http://www.progasinc.com/ Oct 27, 2005 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) Currently Rome Oil & Gas Co. has 18 wells that are producing between 5 BBL/Day to 50 BBL/day each, average 26 BBL/day per well, 18 x26 = 468 BBL/day. expected to increase as new wells come on line. Now Progas Can Move the Oil Through interstate and intrastate pipelines. http://www.pbls.biz/pr42.htm November 3, 2005 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) New Oil Lease in Wyoming for its Mid-South/Rome Oil & Gas Division The Company has plans to drill a minimum of nine production wells a possible maximum of 22 wells. http://www.pbls.biz/pr43.htm Production easily double with 40 wells averaging 26 barrels a day. over a 1000 BBL/day, Rome Oil is currently selling its oil at a PPB of $52-$57. $52,000 a day on just the Oil Business alone. $18,980,000 in Oil revenue, Progas $190,000,000 in Revenue. Murphy Sand & Gravel $4 to $8 million per year. http://www.pbls.biz/msg.htm also http://www.pbls.biz/pr38.htm Heaslip Const. revenues will exceed $2,000,000.00 for 2005. Ann Arbor Pools and Great Lakes Pool Plastering, should bring in approximately $2,288,000.00 in revenues For 2005. http://www.pbls.biz/pr38.htm Sep 26, 2005 Press release Bayou State Trucking Revenues for 2005 around $650,000 http://www.pbls.biz/bst.htm , http://www.pbls.biz/pr38.htm
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Draw your own conclusion where future oil and natural gas prices will be:
-Many top oil-producing nations have peaked in oil discoveries and production. -U.S. discoveries peaked around 1930 and production peaked around 1970. -U.S. production has decreased by 40% since. -U.S. production continues to decline despite technological innovation and capital investment. -Every year since 1981, the oil industry has pumped more oil than it has discovered. -World discoveries continue to decline despite technological innovation and capital investment. -The world’s 14 largest fields have an average age of more than 50 years. -20% of global production comes from the 14 largest fields. -70% of global production comes from fields more than 30 years old. -The world’s largest oil field, Saudi Arabia’s ghawar, was discovered in 1948. -Saudi discoveries peaked in 1948. -World discoveries peaked in the 1960s. -The energy cost of oil is the amount of energy required to produce the oil. -Energy cost includes energy used in exploration, drilling, pumping, transporting and refining. -The energetically recoverable oil is independent of market price – it is a physical constraint. -When energy cost exceeds energy yield, production is no longer worthwhile at any price. -Ultimately recoverable oil is constrained by net energy yield, not market price. -30-40% of oil is recovered from a typical field at current market prices. -An unknown percentage of world reserves can be recovered before energy yield turns negative. -The 1960s discovery peak established the downward trend of the global discovery curve. -Remaining reserves are estimated by extrapolating the discovery curve. -Oil production mirrors discovery plus a time lag. -‘Peak oil’ refers to production ceiling. -Peaking is different than running out. -Oil production is limited by the rate of flow, not how much is in the ground. -The production rate of flow peaks when approximately half of reserves are depleted. -Estimates of global oil production peak depend on unreliable reserve data. -Future demand also affects the production peak. -Absent perfect data, the question is not if but when global oil production will peak. -Global oil production is projected by some to peak this decade. -Peak production will only be observable some length of time after it occurs. -Current global demand is about 82 million barrels per day. -The International Energy Agency predicts demand of 120 million barrels per day by 2030. -The IEA prediction assumes a demand growth rate of 1.5% compounded. -The IEA prediction neglects the depletion rate of existing reserves. -The Association for the Study of Peak Oil estimates that depletion of existing reserves is 2.4%. -4% more oil must be produced each year to offset depletion plus demand growth. -3 million more barrels must be pumped daily by the end of 2005 to offset depletion plus growth. -22% or 22 million more barrels would be needed daily by 2010. -167% or 227 million more barrels would be needed daily by 2030 – clearly impossible. --The above numbers reflect a compounded 4% rate of increase. -Canada and Venezuela possess vast oilsand reserves. -Oilsand extraction is an energy intensive mining operation. -The amount of energetically recoverable oilsands is unknown. -The mining of oilsands cannot extract oil at the same rate as conventional pumping. -Oilsand production is presently 1 Mb per day and is projected to reach 2 Mb per day by 2010. -Increased oilsand mining cannot offset the depletion rates of conventional oil. -North American natural gas is near peak production and cannot offset declining oil production. -Natural gas imports are constrained by transport bottlenecks and cannot offset declining oil. -Hydrogen is an energy carrier that is largely produced from natural gas. -The U.S. has 100-200 years of coal reserves at current consumption rates. -Coal presently accounts for 23% of U.S. energy production for electricity. -Future coal will be required to replace electricity production from declining natural gas. -Coal can be converted to gas inefficiently – South Africa does this now. -Coal mining yield and conversion inefficiency cannot offset the depletion rates of oil. -Oil from shale is a mining operation that cannot offset depletion of conventional oil. -Solar and wind energy is dilute, intermittent, land-intensive, and can’t be stored on a large scale. -Biofuel production is constrained by competition with food crops for land. -It takes 10 years to build a nuclear plant. -10 years past peak, oil production will have decreased 36% at a 2.4% compounded decline rate. -Population growth and energy availability are highly correlated. -It took millions of years for human population to reach 1 billion by 1850. -It took 150 years for population to reach 6 billion by 2000. -At the current growth rate of 1.6%, population now increases by 1 billion every 10 years. -Modern agriculture is heavily subsidized by oil-based pesticides and gas-based fertilizers. -Modern agriculture is heavily mechanized and dependent on oil for pumping water. -Organic crop yields are several times smaller than petroleum-subsidized crop yields. -Post-Soviet cessation of oil supplies to North Korea resulted in severe and continuing famine. -By the time the problem is recognized, the next generation has been born.
By: sprtcrdlui1 24 Nov 2005, 09:10 PM EST Msg. 25895 of 25904 Jump to msg. # PBLS * .025, .17 EPS For 2005, .22 EPS for 2006 2005 Revenues Rome Oil & Gas Co., $1,368,000.00 in revenues for 2005 Murphy Sand & Gravel excess of $2,310,000.00 in revenues for 2005 Heaslip Construction excess of $2,000,000.00 in revenues for 2005 Ann Arbor Pools $2,288,000.00 in revenues for 2005 Bayou State Trucking around $650,000.00 in revenues for 2005 Progas Inc. . $190,000,000.00 in revenues for 2005 ------------------------------------------------------------------- $198,618,000.00 in revenues for 2005 ProGas, Inc. Completed Acquisition will Add $190 Million in Revenues for FY 2005 http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8613714
Last of 2005, gross revenues will exceeding $10,000,000.00 profit exceeding gross revenues where in 2004. $3,000,000.00 30% Profit http://www.pbls.biz/pr38.htm
$59,585,400.00 Profit 2005 / 346,560,260 shres = .17 EPS for 2005 PBLS trading 25 x Earnings is $4.25 PPS http://www.pbls.biz/pr38.htm
2006 revenues $224,388,000 Progas Inc. $190,000,000 Rome Oil and Mid South Oil $12,000,000 Murphy Sand and Gravel Est. $3,500,000 50% growth from 2005 Heaslip Construction Est $3,000,000 50% growth from 2005 Ann Arbor, Great Lakes Pool $3,388,000 50% growth from 2005 Bayou State Trucking $1,000,000 50% growth from 2005
Adding the long term assets: Murphy Sand and Gravel: In ground reserves $500,000,000.00 Gross Rome Oil Kentucky: 400,000 BBLS x $50.00 = $20,000,000.00 Gross http://www.pbls.biz/pr42.htm Rome Oil Wyoming:13,100,000 BBLS x $50.00 = $655,000,000.00 Gross http://www.pbls.biz/news.htm $1,235,750,000.00
Rate Member posted November 28, 2005 20:56 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- more info here: http://users.adelphia.net/~newp/pbls/
I'm in BIG on this...
bond006 Member
Member Rated: posted November 30, 2005 11:58 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is a good piece on oil and gas peeking long but worth the read if you are in pbls this could be a good read and then see why paul is taking us thier.
Small growth oil companies are the next big thing:
Rate Member posted December 01, 2005 21:38 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...been at work the past two days, so I've missed out some. From I-hub
Posted by: stushy In reply to: None Date:12/1/2005 7:50:41 PM Post #5460 of 5464
Spoke with Mike today... He stated they are retiring some restricted shares owned by an employee who needs the money this year. This will be part of the 100 million retired and some will be out of the float.
Mike stated they are in the process of retiring the 100 million shares.
Also stated they have a genius for their aquisitions manager who's plan is to pick companies who's owners/management expect to retire out 5 years or more and offer them cash, restricted shares, preferred shares and guarentee minimum cash settlement at end of five years or much more depending on pps of stock.
Plan is minimum dilution, and creative financing with preferred and restricted shares.
We will all know what the O/S is beginning of Feburary. Also, SEC is pushing them to move off of pinkies with this type of revenue so expect a faster move to different exchange. Also talk of AMEX immediately. Also expect more major aquisitions soon. Also 1 billion revenue in three years is target.
Posts: 1632 | From: NJ | Registered: Nov 2005
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quote:Originally posted by macdrsirules: Do your DD and you wont have ulcers trying to find an appropriate exit point. Definately hold long regardless of what happens with PPS the next few days/weeks, although I believe the run will continue for a few more days. I think the MMS finally got a handle on their short position, covered, and will now let it ride for a while selling their shares on the way up for a great profit. When PBLS audits are completed and moved to AMEX or larger exchange then very little manipulation will occur. As for now enjoy the ride and if you plan to flip, hope with all your heart that they dont file their financials or you will be disappointed you did not stay in. All in my honest opinion.
Im holding long regardless of PPS in the next few days/weeks, too much for me to risk knowing they will file soon.
Thanks a lot for your input... and Jelly, thanks for re-posting the DD, it's good to see it again (to remind me what's so good about this company!). It almost seems too good to be true, a penny stock that's going to really make it (and I'm invested!)! Usually, when things seem too good to be true, they are. Maybe not this time?? hee hee...
-------------------- Can I have some money now?
- DC Posts: 488 | From: Northern California | Registered: Dec 2005
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No army corp of engineers or FEMA contracts associated directly with Murphy sand and gravel that I have found. However BOH BROS,(largest construction company in the area) has over 30 million in contracts with corp of engineers and they get alot of their sand and gravel from Murphy, so PBLS is indirectly involved.
There is only one sand and gravel pit involved in a contract with army corp of engineers directly and that was a while back for 500 grand. It may actually be best to not win "the low bidder contracts" as sand and gravel in the area is at a premium right now. I am sure they are doing excellent business right now. Boh Bros has a contract not only to repair levees but also I-10. You can be assured that most of the sand and gravel they need is coming from Murphy.
All IMO
macdrsirules
Posts: 539 | From: BIG D | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
Agreed Lil, great illustration. RSI, STO, Williams% are great for stocks that are cyclical in nature but with stocks in strong uptrends they should not be used to find exit points. Here is another example of a pinkie Lil. You lose out big time if you sell when RSI hits 70 or even 80.
Way too many more to post but if a stock is in a strong uptrend I forget about being overbought as the indicators are faulty and will guide you astray.
Posts: 539 | From: BIG D | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
most recent share count posted from Ihub as per telephone conversation with mike mulshine
Posted by: monkeybiz In reply to: macdrsirules who wrote msg# 9299 Date:1/10/2006 1:24:04 AM Post #of 9347
Macdrs - I just got this from Mr. Mulshine to my request for share structure:
Brad,
The most recent info that I have is that there are about 650 million shs total issued and outstanding, and about 350 million in the public float. Since the Company is working toward filing a Form 10 with the SEC in February, with intentions of becoming a full reporting company by May 1st, I suggest that as soon as the Form 10 is filed that you access this filing on the SEC's Edgar site ... this will be the best way you can become fully informed on Phoenix.
Mike Mulshine
Posts: 6008 | From: phoenix az | Registered: Mar 2005
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