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Author Topic: CDN. JUNIOR MINERS: GENERAL
northernprophet
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I wanted to start a forum on an any topic relating to junior mining in Canada.
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northernprophet
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WE NEED A DISCOVERY!!!!!

The general feeling of people I talk to is that all players of juniors are fully invested; all that is happening now is that money is going from one stock to the other.
It is a zero sum game right now.

In '96, the amount of fresh "outside" capital coming into the Cdn. junior mining sector was staggering.
We had the $billion(s) buyout of Diamond Fields (Voisey's Bay) by Inco, then we had BRE-X go from $1 to $280 in between 94 and early 96. This new money enabled the small guys to sell out, and deploy their money elsewhere in the junior world.

For those of you who have never experienced a major discovery and an "area play"; once you do, and see lots of your friends getting rich, you will be hooked.

Even the small buyout $300M of Winspear in 2000, created a mini diamond boom in 2001-2002.

In my years I have seen Eskay Creek, Dia Met, Aber, Diamond Fields, and Bre-x(sure , it was a fraud, but it got the market going).
Believe me, these plays create HUGE excitement and the junior market will go up even if the DOW is in the tank.

Now, with the seeming re-collapse of Nortel, I believe all tech companies will receive increased scrutiny, and "hot" capital is in a position to flow into the juniors.

We have yet to have a major discovery during the internet age. In 96, very few investors were "on-line", now just about everyone is on the net.
A major discovery combined with an internet platform would make juniors seem like tech stocks in 99-early 2000.
I am praying.

[This message has been edited by northernprophet (edited May 01, 2004).]

[This message has been edited by northernprophet (edited May 01, 2004).]


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BCmouser
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Really think BZA is a good junior play , they have 15 mil in cash and over half a billion worth of ore in the ground. Just cash in the bank is worth nearly .08 a share and it last traded on Fri. @ .19. Goldcorp, John Embry and Ian Telfer all have substantial positions in this co. Makes it worth a look. Check out the last assays results -amazing this trading where it is.AMERICAN BONANZA GOLD MINING CORP. (TSX Venture: BZA) ('Bonanza') is pleased to report additional drill results from the surface exploration and resource development drilling program and from the underground core drilling program in progress at the D-Zone target, both at the 100% owned Copperstone Project in Arizona. The surface drilling program is designed to conduct exploration and provide data for resource estimation, with the goal of producing a measured resource in and around the D-Zone and the C-Zone.

Surface Core Drilling Program

The initial surface drilling program is located to the north of the open pit, southeast of the C-Zone, and approximately 1,000 feet southeast of the D-Zone, which is currently the subject of a detailed underground drilling program.

The second hole in the surface drilling program encountered a 17.5 foot (5.3metre) interval grading 1.42 ounces of gold per ton (48.7 grams per tonne gold) with 0.5% copper.

The following table is a summary of the assay results for the second drill hole from the surface drilling program, which is a vertical drill hole:

--------------------------------------------------------------------Drill Hole Dip Interval Gold GoldHole Length (deg- From - To Length Grade Grade CopperNumber (feet) rees) (feet) (feet) (opt) (g/t) (%)--------------------------------------------------------------------CRD-04-02 920 -90 834.5-852.0 17.5 1.42 48.7 0.5--------------------------------------------------------------------
The true thickness of this intercept is calculated to be 15 feet (4.5 metres). CRD-04-02 was drilled with 720 feet of reverse circulation followed by 200 feet of core drilled at the bottom of the hole. The mineralised zone was encountered in the core portion of the drill hole. Recoveries from the surface drilling program to date are excellent. While not drilled on a grid, the nearest drill hole to CRD-04-02 is the recently announced CRD-04-01, approximately 140 feet to the Southwest, with the next nearest other drill holes being over 170 feet distant.

Drilling continues on the surface program to target the Copperstone fault with two drilling rigs currently working and additional rigs to be on site soon. CRD-04-02 is the second hole of a 30,000 metre surface drill program that will continue through most of 2004. All assays at Copperstone are at least triple-checked routinely.


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northernprophet
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In my first post, I forgot to mention Arequipa, which went from 70 cents in fall of 95, to getting bought out by Barrick for $30/share in August 96. The mine in Peru is one of Barrick's most profitable.

BCmouser, you are right about BZA. They have great ownership, and an excellent property.
We need a major discovery and a $BILLION buyout.

Believe me mouser, we need some more fuel to push these stocks higher.
We need an Arequipa, Dia Met type of discovery, then a cash buyout.
In that environment, with a property in the USA, BZA could be $2.00.


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BCmouser
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Not sure what forces are pushing US buck up and metals down , but I am not expecting this trend to last. Still think all the fundamentals that caused this huge rise in metals are still there. Shortage , demand and weakening global faith in the US dollar.The situation in IRAQ is not improving and terrorism will only make investors rush for gold. JMHO
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northernprophet
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I could not agree more, BCMouser. Also I can not believe the prices of juniors, and the horrible market we are in.(considering gold is near a 10 year high.)
I will repeat myself again, we need a discovery to capture the public's attention.

In 95, 96, and 97, you could pick up a copy of the Globe and Mail, or the Financial Post and see lots of stories and write ups on junior mining, many times on the front page.
We need to see that again.


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rich555
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have you guys heard of CMKX drilling for diamonds in Saskatchewan? They have bought the rights to almost all the land around the debeer and star finds. the stock is .0001 many people believe the stock has been totally delituted to 500 billion as. others say there is much more going on here than meets the eye.
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northernprophet
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If Shore Gold comes up with the goods on their bulk sample, every stock in the Sask. diamond play will benefit.

People have been poking around there since the 80s, have tested lots of pipes, but have found no commercial quantities of diamonds.
Shore is a high profile play, and if they fail, stick a fork in the Sask. diamond play once and for all.


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TradingWizard
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I personally own TAH, DFI, RCW and WRM.
Some positive outlook: Analysts are predicting that price of gold will double in 5 years.
TAH looks attractive, I don't know what is happening with DFI, RCW....
WRM is good company, but been sliding down slowly...

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northernprophet
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Last week gold was in a freefall one night overseas, went down to $374, then ended the day higher. Gold has been up almost everyday in the past week.
Another rally coming soon in stocks.


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northernprophet
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Today Aur is and Inmet have agreed to merge.
This will at least get mining on the front pages again.(hopefully)
All the different message boards are dead, we must be due for a spring/summer rally.

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BCmouser
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You could make a long list of junior golds who are trading @ or near 52 week lows despite POG less than ten% off its 15 yr high. When POG gets to 450$ these will take off like a rocket and believe me it will happen -maybe not next month but within a year.
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northernprophet
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Yes, all the charts I look at are at a 45 degree angle down.
Also, very little money has been made in the majors except for Newmont. Barrick is trading for less than it was in spring of 99.

Buy juniors with active programs that have a chance of hitting some good holes.
NDT Ventures is one i am going to research. It just picked up a bunch of claims in Nevada. Also, my favorite BTP.



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northernprophet
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Gold looked like it was in a freefall this morning, but has clawed it's way back up to even.
The mid-cap and seniors are up today on higher volume than in the past few weeks.
I believe the stocks have signalled a bottom.
The stocks usually lead the way over the commodity itself.

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TradingWizard
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NEWS: More mergers please, say N. American gold bosses


7:56am ET (Reuters)


(Amounts in U.S. dollars unless noted)

By Nicole Mordant

VANCOUVER, British Columbia,May 11 (Reuters) - In a risky business like gold mining, there are few certainties.

But North America's biggest producers appear to be sure of two things: that there will be more industry consolidation and that shareholders will benefit from a fresh wave of unions.

"I think it will be healthier if we saw fewer players and more consolidation," said Jay Taylor, chief executive of Placer Dome Inc. , North America's No.3 gold producer.

Taylor, speaking to reporters after Placer Dome's annual meeting last week, said the 3.8 million ounce a year producer was constantly on the look-out for acquisitions.

"I have a whole team on a floor below me that just spends their whole day passing a ruler over the companies out there. We're active in that area," he said of the firm that swallowed Australia's AurionGold in a $700 million takeover in 2002.

Wayne Murdy, chief executive of Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp. , also believes more unions are in the cards although he was mum on what role his own company, the world's biggest producer, might play.

"We continue to believe that this is an industry over the longer term that can benefit shareholders by continued consolidation, and we think that that will probably happen," Murdy said speaking after the firm's recent results.

Despite a swathe of mergers since the mid-1990s, the gold industry remains very fragmented for a sector whose total market value, at about $100 billion for hundreds of companies, is only a third of Microsoft Corp.'s .

The reasons for merging remain largely the same as in the past: to increase gold reserves when big finds are scarce, improve stock liquidity for shareholders, and cut costs. Geographical diversity has gained importance as a driver.

CASH VERSUS EQUITY

Paul Murphy, Canadian mining practice leader at PricewaterhouseCoopers, said unions occur both in strong and in weak gold markets as different companies flourish at different times due to their levels of hedging and production costs.

What differs though is the method of payment in transactions, he said. At times of buoyant metal prices, like the past year when some stocks have doubled with a sturdier gold price, purchases are likely to be paid for in shares as buyers find it tough to fork out large amounts of cash.

"In up-cycles, the determinant is not fair value, but relative value. If one company is not as overvalued as another, then it could become a takeover target," Murphy said.

North America has already seen one gold merger this year. Shareholders are due to vote on June 8 whether to okay Wheaton River Minerals' reverse takeover of mid-sized peer Iamgold Corp. in a $2.2 billion all-share deal.

The most intense speculation continues to swirl around Newmont as a potential predator.

With its No. 1 position now rivaled by South Africa's AngloGold Ltd. following its merger with Ashanti Goldfields , nearly every large gold miner has been tipped as potential prey for the 7-million-ounce-a-year producer.

AngloGold Ashanti, the new name of the enlarged company, appears uninterested in another big marriage.

"My own view is that large-scale consolidation certainly involving our own company has probably come to an end," chief executive Bobby Godsell said at a conference last week.

"I think growth now is going to come from exploration, from cost effectiveness, reducing margins," he said, predicting increased cooperation between large miners and junior exploration firms, often the discoverers of new deposits.


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northernprophet
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This interest rate shock has really pummelled the metals. The yield on the US 10 year bond has gone from 3.7% to 4.9% in the past 7 weeks. That is a HUGE increase.

My theory is that these artificially low interest rates have caused a monetery expansion that will be hard to stop.
Greenspan could raise the Fed funds rate from 1% to 2.5% and rates would still be accomodative.

The seeds of future inflation have been sown, and the fact that outsourcing of jobs in the US is being legislated against,will cause costs to go up for companies.

Gold's next leg up will be caused by inflation fears, not deflation fears like the past 2 years.


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northernprophet
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Yuo guys know my philosophy. Stocks are either being accumulated or distributed.
Patrician Diamonds PXC, is definitely in accumulation mode. Light volume at 10-12 cents. When I check my level 2 there are strong bids at 9-10 cents. We're at bottom.
PXC is run by the same group that runs Majescor. (MAJ) Quebec guys.
PXC is the type of stock you take an initial position in (say 5000 shares) and wait for the story to develop. Run by a good group that can get a promotion up and running.

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lumik
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I wonder if anyone has looked at NAU.(North American Gold Inc.)It looks to have a top notch management team, excellent property, no debt.and lots of funding. They have been drilling in Sweden since June 1st. and were waiting for positive drilling reports in the next week or so.
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northernprophet
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Yes, it would not take much for NAU to pop up to $1 or more, not many shares out.

Also, I see Simon Ridgway is on the board, he is from Radius Exploration and a few others.

[This message has been edited by northernprophet (edited June 17, 2004).]


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lumik
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NAU is really digging in to this undeveloped field in Sweden, if it's half as good as Harmen says we'll see 2.00 and more soon. Simon and Harmen both have been involved in some major discoveries, and now with our new president Buck Morrow coming out of retirement just to help develop the Sweden field is clear evidence these boys know what they are doing.
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northernprophet
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Shore Gold (SGF) is one of the hottest post sites on the Bullboards today.
Unfortunately the news is not great.
It is my experience that whenever everyone is on the edge of their seats waiting for results or news, the news has to be utterly spectacular to move the stock.

Nobody believed Dia Met and Diamond Fields, even when they were $20 stocks, and on their way to $60 and $160 respectively.
Like the market in general, there must be a wall of worry and disbelief to climb.

"Diamonds in Canada, you must be nuts."
That was the feeling in the early 90s.


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GREGDOGG
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Hey NP, How's life ????

I was just looking at SGF, out of the 3 I posted, SGF was the only one with any real volume,

How's BTP doin for ya ??? Up? Down? Sidewards?



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northernprophet
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Hi Gregdogg. i thought you were on holidays or something.
Anyway, the 'tooth is doing some hibernating.
BTPs annual meeting is this Friday, and the results of their 3300 foot drill program in Idaho should be due any day now.

If they are going to do any work in Montana they will need to do a real financing of $5-$10 million.
I will be hugely disappointed if they do another financing at 10-20 cents.
It's all about those Idaho results now.


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northernprophet
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My three favorite stocks on the TSXV are: Stratic Energy SE . Has a great land position in Syria surrounded by Petro Canada.
Petro Canada is one of the largest producers in Syria. 38 cent stock, great price.

Beartooth. I have said enough.BTP

Patrician Diamonds. PXC
Run by the same people that run Majescor.Andre Audet. MAJ had a good run 2 years ago to almost $2.00
PXC is currently around 12 cents and is in accumulation mode. and some heavies have participated in the last 2 pps.
PXC is the type you buy 5000 shares of and wait. I believe an uptrend will start in fall and continue into 2005.


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GREGDOGG
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Howdy NP,

No holiday's or vacations here, some would say my whole life's a vacation...LOL

I just bought a house on the lake so I've been doing lots of moving, yard work, house work, ect.

Lately I've been getting my a$$ handed to me on those dang american pennies, so I've been taking a break from posting...lol

Maybe I should start playing Canadian stocks...LOL

BTP looks ready to move, up 9% from .15
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ca%3Abtp&sid=0&o_symb=ca%3Abtp&freq=1&time=8


MAJ looks like it might bounce at .20ish
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ca%3Amaj&sid=0&o_symb=ca%3Amaj&freq=1&time=8


PXC looks good too, 52 low at .08, .11 now
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ca%3Apxc&sid=0&o_symb=ca%3Apxc&freq=1&time=8


SE worries me a bit, I wonder if it'll hit .20 ?????
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ca%3Ase&sid=0&o_symb=ca%3Ase&freq=2&time=10


RSVP when ya get a chance



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newfie bullett
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Falcon Ventures - fix-tsxv has some news coming out in the next week. They have had very little volume and have been on a downward slide over the past few months. Not telling anyone to buy (not that you would anyway) but keep an eye open for the news and be ready for a jump. Current bid .13 and ask .20
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