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Kevin Bailey
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My basic strategy is to find one ultra-solid pick every 7-10 days, and to average a return of 5% on each 5-day play, as well as a 10% average on every 20-day play. Thus far, I have brought three stocks to the board: ADST, ANDS, & ATS. I traded all three, booking around 15% on ADST, 8% on ANDS, and exiting ATS (a mistake, as it's too thinly-traded to make a good swing play), with a 1% loss. I will post the reasoning behind my latest pick (NASDAQ: TSCM) in the first reply to this thread.

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"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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Kevin Bailey
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Company: TheStreet.com

Exchange: NASDAQ

Symbol: TSCM

Current Price: $9.55

5-day Target: $10.00

30-day Target $12.00

3-month Target: $13.00

Reasoning:
TSCM took a monstrous beating after a relatively good Q3 report, that still disappointed the analysts. Over the course of 5 days, it lost about 25% of its value, based on a report that actually showed GOOD numbers. After finding it's bottom of $8.32, it has demonstrated a clear bullish move, closing at $9.55 (up 14.8%), and forming a bullish flag from the peak of the "flag-pole" on last Thursday. Volume is decreasing, with the candlesticks forming higher lows, which is a further confirmation of the bullish flag.

Additionally, neither the RSI or the Stochastics are showing overbought, and both are trending upward, indicating buying pressure. MACD is trending upward, approaching 0, and once it passes through, the breakout to the upside will be confirmed. There may be some resistance around $10.00 (which I would identify as a potential exit for a shorter-term, 5-day play), but the resistance might be weak, which might make this a potentially much bigger runner in the 20-30 day range. I also see this as potentially being a good longer-term play, as the underlying fundamentals are strong.

--------------------
"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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Kevin Bailey
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BTW, the On Balance Volume also indicates significant buying pressure in TSCM, and WIlliam Morrison, an analyst with JMP rates the stock as Market Outperform, giving it a target price of $14. The more I think about this play, the more I feel like I may turn it into a longer-term swing (20 days or so) with a target of $12-13.

--------------------
"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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Kevin Bailey
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Hit $9.64 today, but has pulled back to $9.46. I really feel like this one is coiling for a quick spring.

--------------------
"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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Kevin Bailey
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Hit $9.58 today, and settled back at $9.45. Don't be surprised if this one runs tomorrow.

--------------------
"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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Kevin Bailey
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(BTW, this forum is still dead. I'm beginning to think that trying to revive it might be a failed bit.)

--------------------
"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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fuzzcloud
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I don't post much but I do read this forum and I wish it was more active; I do like R1's thread. I'm not very fond of Cramer so I'm going to sit out TSCM just on principle but I am interested in hearing your other picks... I've lost my azz in thse penny plays - I've realized I'm not experienced enough to know how to play them right - and these are the kinds of picks I like.

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1927-19 33 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators

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Kevin Bailey
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Not sure who "R1" is. What is it about Cramer you don't like? He's annoying as hell, but he was a great trader, and his ideas are usually pretty solid.

I would recommend developing a system of your own. When I initially started here (back in 2003), I made some big returns in the pennies. I then lost some money, taking the wrong end of a few plays, and took some time off to develop my own system. It's been pretty effective thus far.

--------------------
"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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BooDog
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mad money is a trip.
I don't post outside the micros very often but just wanted to pass on a couple for the radar. EDO is making a nice rebound. And I'm watching DEAR also- swinging around the 52 wk low. I enjoy reading the threads out here. Good luck.

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All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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Kevin Bailey
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Thanks Boo-

My trades usually take between 5 and 20 days to fully develop. It takes some stones to wait sometimes, but it usually pans out okay for me.

--------------------
"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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Kevin Bailey
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Day Range: 9.37-9.51
Close: 9.47
After-hours: 9.44

Analysis:
Even with some weak sister selling at the market bid after-hours, I think that this stock closing up is a good sign. After walking it down to the high 9.30s--and thus shaking out some of the weaker hands--the stock bounced back to close nearer to the highs than the lows. Monday and Tuesday will be very interesting.

--------------------
"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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cpeed
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I like the idea of making this a more active area Kevin. I havent had time to post or research in the last months because of school. But in the next week I will start contributing. Keep up the good work, lots of learning to be done

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-- Newb

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Kevin Bailey
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Hopefully, if I stay relatively active in this area, others will be draw to it--even if they don't like me personally.

--------------------
"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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ladybird
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What's not to like, Kevin? Ha. What do you think of WJCI and UFI?

WJCI dropped Thurs. when it announced that its revenue expectaion for the 4th quarter is more like 10 million rather than 12. Seems to me like an ok company though - profited in the last 4 quarters.

UFI took a bigger dive. But they missed their revenue expectation by more than 50%. Still, they went down .70 from $2.42 and I don't think their missed expectation warranted that big a drop.

By the way, How do the RSI and stochastics show if a stock is overbought? Is that what's meant by overweight?

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Kevin Bailey
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Are you looking for shorter-term, "bounce" plays, or longer-term, 100-200% gain type plays? Because what you look for in a 5-20 day play is MUCH different than what you look for in a 2-6 month play.

With RSI and Stochastics, the simplest way to put it is that if the line is high in the chart (for either one) that indicates a stock that is overbought, relative to price, and is due for a selloff at some point. If the line is low in the chart, it indicates that as stock is oversold, relative to price, and is due for a bounce. Neither of these is a law, as sometimes a stock can trade in the oversold range for awhile before it rebounds, and sometimes a stock can trade in the overbought range for awhile before its correction happens. This is why I like to use these two in combination with other technicals, like MACD, as well as the 13, 50, and 200 day moving averages to find my price points. I have to get some sleep tonight, but when I get a chance (hopefully before the bell tomorrow), I'll take a look at these two stocks.

Thanks for checking out my thread!

--------------------
"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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BooDog
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$5.75
check out the news on SUNW - very nice reaction too - volume almost 78M.

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All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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ladybird
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Well, WJCI went up about 7% today but UFI took the big leap - up 20%. Opened at 1.72 and was at $2.13 at one point. Hope someone made some money.
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Kevin Bailey
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quote:
Originally posted by ladybird:
Well, WJCI went up about 7% today but UFI took the big leap - up 20%. Opened at 1.72 and was at $2.13 at one point. Hope someone made some money.

Congrats! I never had time to get to them, what with playing NUVO all day long!
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Who?
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Kevin,I like your idea of starting a new thread on low-priced stocks that are not pennies.Maybe there would be more interest in the thread by discussing more stocks than just the ones you buy.
Of course, you may not have the time do do that.

Since you mentioned using stochastics as one of the criteria for when to buy a stock, I was wondering if you still have TSCM. I noticed that its short-term stochastics (5,3,3) has turned down and seems to be headed into oversold territory,although percentage-wise, the price hasn't declined too much.

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BooDog
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I'll tell you what... give me a symbol and I'll start talking about it. As soon as I say it's going up get ready to buy the next couple days cause then it will be about 30% lower lmao! EDO down, dear down, sunw down. back to the charts... well maybe not 30% but you get my point. all 3 down about 2%.
I like the idea of having your own pick in its own thread like it already is. But having 10,000 picks lined up makes things a little muddled to target what might really be moving. I was using your thread as a brainstorm thread. my pick went down but i expect EDO to be up over the next couple months with all the defense work they are doing. DEAR I was watching - still doing DD but looking for a bottom. SUNW I've been watching since summer and IMO has some very good momo with the competition. Tis the season to be watching for low entries. Cheers!

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All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!?

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Kevin Bailey
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Sorry I haven't been posting. My grandmother passed away last week, and I've been out of pocket since. As for trading, I must say, I was certainly wrong about the short-term activity of TSCM. Long-term, I still consider it a buy. I closed my position at about 9.47, and dove into NUVO, for a quick 3-day play from about 3.86 to 4.14 ...

Again, sorry for not updating the thread for awhile, and for my first pick in it being such a short-term stinker. FWIW, I think the 9.20s represents a good buy for TSCM, but I've been wrong on this one before, so...

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"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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glassman
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no need to apologise KB.
"picking" is an inexact science..
and
everybody hits the buy and sll button with their own fingers....
(unless your account has been hacked by one of these Europeans or Asianswe have been hearing about lately)

Hackers Zero In on Online Stock Accounts

By Ellen Nakashima
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, October 24, 2006; Page A01

Hackers have been breaking into customer accounts at large online brokerages in the United States and making unauthorized trades worth millions of dollars as part of a fast-growing new form of online fraud under investigation by federal authorities.

E-Trade Financial Corp., the nation's fourth-largest online broker, said last week that "concerted rings" in Eastern Europe and Thailand caused their customers $18 million in losses in the third quarter alone.

Another company, TD Ameritrade, the third-largest online broker, also has suffered losses from customer account fraud, but a spokeswoman declined to quantify the amount yesterday. "It is an industry problem,"


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/23/AR2006102301257. html?nav=hcmodule

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Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.

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T e x
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good lord...

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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glassman
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it's been going on for awhile Tex...

this is why some of the online brokers have been restricting trades to "phone in" on the thinly traded stuff...

the hackers are buying thru other peoples accounts to runup the price while they sell....

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Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.

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Jenna
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Sorry about your Grandmother Kevin.........

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..just remember....Family is EVERYTHING!!

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Kevin Bailey
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Thanks Jenna. It's been a tough month or so, since she first took a turn for the worse. She'd been sick for 18 months, but I think we all thought she'd pull through somehow. She's always been really active, and she was only 73, which is pretty young for a grandmother (and great-grandmother, 26 times over!) I would think. But it just wasn't to be.

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"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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Kevin Bailey
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quote:
Originally posted by glassman:
it's been going on for awhile Tex...

this is why some of the online brokers have been restricting trades to "phone in" on the thinly traded stuff...

the hackers are buying thru other peoples accounts to runup the price while they sell....

Interesting. I go through BoA, since they have commission-free trading. They have several levels of security, so hopefully the hackers won't get into those accounts.

--------------------
"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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T e x
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quote:
Originally posted by Kevin Bailey:
Thanks Jenna. It's been a tough month or so, since she first took a turn for the worse. She'd been sick for 18 months, but I think we all thought she'd pull through somehow. She's always been really active, and she was only 73, which is pretty young for a grandmother (and great-grandmother, 26 times over!) I would think. But it just wasn't to be.

ya...condolences, Kevin. Tough time of year for a tough loss...

God bless

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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Kevin Bailey
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Yes, it is. Trading is a bit of an escape for me, as I force myself to drain all emotions before opening or closing a position. It's strangely cathartic. Or maybe I'm just a bit strange...

--------------------
"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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T e x
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strange?

perhaps [Big Grin]

but as I mentioned on another thread, emotion really has no place in trading.

emotion is for family, friends, pets, etc...not trading.

In that regard? If you're strange, so am I.

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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Kevin Bailey
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quote:
Originally posted by T e x:
strange?

perhaps [Big Grin]

but as I mentioned on another thread, emotion really has no place in trading.

emotion is for family, friends, pets, etc...not trading.

In that regard? If you're strange, so am I.

I meant "strange" in that I find the lack of emotion necessary to trade well cathartic. But I can agree that we're both pretty strange. [Smile]

--------------------
"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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T e x
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lol

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Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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Kevin Bailey
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Northfield Laboratories (Nasdaq:NFLD)

Much like Nuvelo (Nasdaq:NUVO) was last week, Northfield is being HAMMERED on bad news. This could be a good short-term bouncer. I have been reading news all morning, and haven't bought yet. I'm simply posting this as an FYI for those who like these type of plays.

--------------------
"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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Kevin Bailey
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For the record, I wasn't first on this stock. While I found it on my own, Repo posted on it before I did, albeit for different reasons, over in the "Hot Stocks Free For All" section.

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"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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Kevin Bailey
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quote:
Originally posted by Kevin Bailey:
Northfield Laboratories (Nasdaq:NFLD)

Much like Nuvelo (Nasdaq:NUVO) was last week, Northfield is being HAMMERED on bad news. This could be a good short-term bouncer. I have been reading news all morning, and haven't bought yet. I'm simply posting this as an FYI for those who like these type of plays.

I'm in between 4.12 and 4.19, for the record...

--------------------
"Entrepreneurship is the last refuge of the trouble making individual."

~ Mason Cooley ~

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