Get Out While You Can! Dow Headed to 5000, Charles Nenner Says Posted Jul 15, 2010 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing Related: ^dji, ^gspc, spy, ^ixic, qqqq, dia, iwm Enjoy the recent stock market rally while it lasts. Market forecaster Charles Nenner tells Tech Ticker stocks will peak in about a month and then head south for the year.
“After late August I expect the market to go down again,” and eventually test the March 2009 lows in the next few years, he says on the phone from Israel. Therefore, long-term investors would be wise to use this rally as an opportunity to get out of stocks. “I see this as a bear market rally,” he says comparing the U.S. market to Japan – a prolonged bear market with wild fluctuations.
Until the end of August, stocks will trade in a tight range, he predicts. His near term upside target is 1155 on the S&P 500, but that’s only if it first breaks 1100. If the market finds resistance and closes below 1085, it could spell trouble.
It’s worth paying attention to Nenner's warning. As Seeking Alpha contributor Cliff Wachtel points out, Nenner has a pretty good track record with his recent calls:
• In early 2009, when markets appeared on the brink of collapse, Nenner said the S&P 500 was going from 660 to over 1000 within the coming year.
• In early 2009, he foretold gold’s 6-month run from June in the low $900s to $1220, within mere dollars of its ultimate peak at $1225.
• More recently, in December 2009 he called the top in U.S. stocks within 4 days.
His advice for the average investor: “You don't want to get in the market,” he says. “For the next couple of years, just be happy if you don’t lose money.”
When will it be safe to go back in the water? Not until the market experiences a lot more pain, he forecasts. Don’t bet on stocks for the long haul, “until you get below 7000. And preferably if you wait till 5000, which is my downside target on the Dow Jones.”
Posts: 3417 | From: Cleveland, Ohio | Registered: Jan 2000
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• In early 2009, when markets appeared on the brink of collapse, Nenner said the S&P 500 was going from 660 to over 1000 within the coming year.
• In early 2009, he foretold gold’s 6-month run from June in the low $900s to $1220, within mere dollars of its ultimate peak at $1225.
• More recently, in December 2009 he called the top in U.S. stocks within 4 days.
THESE ARE ALL UPSIDE CALLS, NOT DOWNSIDE. We have actually cleared the way for a run to S&P 1300 dow 13050. The treasury came out and said there going to keep cap. gains at 20% thus no late year sell off. I see Europe improving, the housing market, the dollar will loose strength thus good for exports. The only caveat is jobs, and I see that following suit after the financial regulation is ironed out. Corporations will know what there tax base will be, thus will know how much money they will need, thus can hire workers. I see S&P 1300+ by year end, not DOW 5000. Besides, the DOW index is really an irrelevant tracking index. Real traders use S&P.
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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• In early 2009, when markets appeared on the brink of collapse, Nenner said the S&P 500 was going from 660 to over 1000 within the coming year.
***Everyone on this board was screaming sell, and I was saying buy BAC and C in that time frame. C went from $1 to $5, and BAC went from $2.50-$19
• In early 2009, he foretold gold’s 6-month run from June in the low $900s to $1220, within mere dollars of its ultimate peak at $1225.
***Where was he when gold was $250-$300 just a few years ago. A little late to the game I would say.
• More recently, in December 2009 he called the top in U.S. stocks within 4 days.
***Where is this published that we can see his exact call within 4 days?
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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quote:Originally posted by Peaser: You heard it here first...
Well....Peaser...if I must say you were the one speaking about 5000 DOW then, and you now have come out of the wood work to speak about DOW 5000 coming ,just a few weeks ago. I can pull the post history if you like. The past shows I was right and you were wrong. Not sure what "you heard it here first" brings to light. We all know I was right on the issue. Enough said.
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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Think what some are banking on is that there will be quite a few ballon payments due in this time period, which will force more foreclosers and some other things.
What there not banking on that this is an election year.
Dems do not want the market collasping before elections and they will do all they can to keep their party in power.
First step was cutting off cash to the states to continue extended unemployment, that way the numbers will look stonger to help the market.
It appears the Gov. will get involved more in the market to keep it stable.
Just don't think we will see that kind of decline before elections unless something sets it off.
Time will tell where it will end up.
If they are so sure you think they would load the boat... short
quote:Originally posted by Peaser: Investor, I do know that you called "bottom was in" from post history if you really want to go there.
I again say that you are wrong on that. Your bounce is almost over imo.
Big day for the EU stress test. I see us going to my original call of 1350 S&P and over 13000 DOW
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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Dow doesn't belong at 13000 yet. Not gonna happen IMO.
Don't think the 5k call is right either.
I think we stick in the 8-11 cycle for at least another year before we see sustainable movement above the 10k watermark.
-------------------- No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues. Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005
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I'm seeing higher and higher interest rates on financing for companies. Decent companies are getting around 9% and the more desperate are now around 15% and higher. I know we've all seen the dilution just about everywhere as well. Imo business is taking care of business. I am more on the lines with Bigfoot. Looking for things to pick up again before the November elections and then another fizzle.
Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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I almost pulled everything back to cash yesterday thinking we were surely headed south. only left about 45% (large cap and international funds). Hard to keep a steady hand these days for sure. Playing more on support/resistance. Still looks tough to maintain any significant gains so I've just been flipping more or less sideways. So will Sept be the worst? Or will it surprise us like it did last year?
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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China PMI and US ISM are so strong. 50% of S@P earnings out side the US. I think you guys are really missing the boat here. Turn the negative media off, and use your head. So all the CEO's and the M&A are wrong. Get real. Still holding my 1350 target by year end.
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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quote:Originally posted by invester: China PMI and US ISM are so strong. 50% of S@P earnings out side the US. I think you guys are really missing the boat here. Turn the negative media off, and use your head. So all the CEO's and the M&A are wrong. Get real. Still holding my 1350 target by year end.
With the volatility as crazy as it is you can't really blame someone for wanting to hold some back. over +200 points today and then we drop below 10k the next. I have to admit, i was looking for a pretty decent dip since we saw a lower low but someone else pointed out the head and shoulders formed, that was the only thing that kept me in just the 45%.... but hey! I'll take it! Still keeping my 9700 - 10,700 sideways market for now. Look at the run this had last sept, but then look at the drop the Sept before that. Flip a coin. There's so much dilution out there it's unreal and people are just stuffing their mattresses imo. we'll see invester. I sure like green better than red any day.
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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I would take a look at the 10 year. I've been waiting on China to see what the 10 year does. That’s not a normal move, that’s money piling out of treasuries and into equities. I'm looking for this to continue throughout the year.
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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quote:Originally posted by invester: I would take a look at the 10 year. I've been waiting on China to see what the 10 year does. That’s not a normal move, that’s money piling out of treasuries and into equities. I'm looking for this to continue throughout the year.
What a reversal. Look at that 10 year plummet!!! Moving right into equities as I called. S@P 1350 by year end.
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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I think you're putting too much faith in China invester. look at their declining workforce for one thing, and the need for them to hold onto cash for their own expenses. We need to get our own **** together imo.
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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quote:Originally posted by BooDog: I think you're putting too much faith in China invester. look at their declining workforce for one thing, and the need for them to hold onto cash for their own expenses. We need to get our own **** together imo.
Not just China BooDog, India, Australia, Canada etc... Our own ISM was decent as well. Money managers need to make money for there clients. So there going to go for 2.62 on a 10yr.? Stocks are on sale. 50% of S@P earnings are out of the states. I reiterate my call on S@P.
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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AGREE stocks are on sale. I just think it'll take a bit longer for your target.
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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Also, I would watch for CIEN to blow away earnings tomorrow. I've got 100 Jan. Calls all over the board.
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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Break 1115 S@P and hold 1131 were off to 1200 then my 1300-1350 target. I called this one ladies!!!!!!!!!
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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Just crossed the 200 day S@P 1114. We now need to close above 1131 and were at 1200 in a flash. Dow 5000 here we come!!!! LoL
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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my 10,7 looks to get tested possibly even this week, $VIX testing support. You know how the volatility can shift. $INDU 50dma slowly getting closer to the 200 as well. Just keep on goin!
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7800 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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Closed above the 200 day. We need to close above 1131 and were at 1200 in no time.
Posts: 4381 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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