quote:Originally posted by PCola77: Nice close for the Dow today.... Yuck.
nobody wants to hold over the weekend...
-------------------- With lies, you may move ahead in the world, but you can never go back. Posts: 30263 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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quote:Originally posted by invester: I’m changing my outlook based on the Paulson plan being revoked. We may break the lows now. It depends on what the new plan entails.
No way! No backing out dude! TA or fundamentals!!!! make up your mind!
Although, everytime Paulson's face even shows up on TV the dow dumps points like crazy. lmao
Posts: 7064 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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quote:Originally posted by invester: I’m changing my outlook based on the Paulson plan being revoked. We may break the lows now. It depends on what the new plan entails.
No way! No backing out dude! TA or fundamentals!!!! make up your mind!
Although, everytime Paulson's face even shows up on TV the dow dumps points like crazy. lmao
The fundamentals will now change now that were not buying the banks bad assets. Credit should still remain frozen, and it will defiantly get worse. To make up your mind and stick to your guns after such a monumental change is absurd. The game changes everyday in this environment.
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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-------------------- With lies, you may move ahead in the world, but you can never go back. Posts: 30263 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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quote:Originally posted by glassman: so you think Paulson screwed up?
Who doesn't, is that even a question????? The CEO of Goldman Sachs at the time was Hank Paulson, our current T. Secretary. He went to Congress to ask them to reduce the constrains on leverage which was 15-1 at the time. They reviewed it then passed law at 40-1. Hank Paulson along with every other Wall Street firm makes money off leverage. Everyone makes money off leverage. That’s how they were able to lend, and do deals of that magnitude. You will NEVER see that type of growth again. Is Paulson responsible for not buying the $700 billion in bad Wall Street assets, I say yes. But I go one step further; he is also DIRECTLRY responsible for the law that re-wrote the leverage on Wall Street, which crippled our economy.
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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quote:Originally posted by invester: I’m changing my outlook based on the Paulson plan being revoked. We may break the lows now. It depends on what the new plan entails.
No way! No backing out dude! TA or fundamentals!!!! make up your mind!
Although, everytime Paulson's face even shows up on TV the dow dumps points like crazy. lmao
The fundamentals will now change now that were not buying the banks bad assets. Credit should still remain frozen, and it will defiantly get worse. To make up your mind and stick to your guns after such a monumental change is absurd. The game changes everyday in this environment.
I'll stick to my TA These are just a little out of date.
quote:
[quote name='BooDog' post='16577' date='Oct 22 2008, 07:54 PM']The bottom isn't "in" imo. I wouldn't mind seeing some of the experts post their views
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7064 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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posted
HERE YOU ARE TEX. So ridiculous that he is our current T. Secretary!!!!!!!!!!!
TradingMarkets.com Hank Paulson-Savior Monday October 20, 9:05 am ET By Gary Kaltbaum
In 2000 SEC Testimony, Paulson Recommended "Self-Regulation" For Wall Street, Plus A Rule Change Now Blamed For Collapse Back in 2000, when Hank Paulson was CEO of Goldman Sachs, he testified in front of the Security and Exchange Commission. Among other things, he lobbied the SEC to enact a "change to self-regulation" for Wall Street. He also urged them to change the "net capital rule" which governed the amount of leverage investment banks could use. The net capital rule was indeed changed in 2004, and is now blamed for the investment banks' collapse.
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PAULSON: The Challenge of Technology and Change to Self-Regulation in the United States: "The third area for re-examination and reform is the structure of broker/dealer regulation, a function now shared by the SEC and the self regulatory organizations ("SROs"), principally the New York Stock Exchange and NASD Regulation Inc."
"{W}e and other global firms have, for many years, urged the SEC to reform its net capital rule to allow for more efficient use of capital. This is the single most important factor in driving significant parts of our business offshore, so that our firms can remain competitive with our foreign competitors risk-based capital standards must become the norm. The SEC has made it clear that risk-based capital rules can be implemented only when the Commission is confident that firms employing value-at-risk models have robust credit and risk management policies in place."
"For these reasons we think it is time to seriously consider the creation of a single, independent SRO to adopt, examine and enforce a core body of financial responsibility, customer protection and margin rules. We hope and expect that there would be savings generated by economies of scale."
How did Paulson's recommendation to let investment banks borrow much, much more work out?
The Securities and Exchange Commission can blame itself for the current crisis. That is the allegation being made by a former SEC official, Lee Pickard, who says "a rule change in 2004 led to the failure of Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH - News), Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch (NYSE:MER - News)." The SEC allowed five firms - the three that have collapsed plus Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley - to more than double the leverage they were allowed to keep on their balance sheets and remove discounts that had been applied to the assets they had been required to keep to protect them from defaults.
The so-called net capital rule was created in 1975 to allow the SEC to oversee broker-dealers...The net capital rule also requires that broker dealers limit their debt-to-net capital ratio to 12-to-1. In 2004, the European Union passed a rule allowing the SEC's European counterpart to manage the risk both of broker dealers and their investment banking holding companies. In response, the SEC instituted a similar, voluntary program for broker dealers with capital of at least $5 billion, enabling the agency to oversee both the broker dealers and the holding companies.
This alternative approach, which all five broker-dealers that qualified - Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS - News), and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS - News) - voluntarily joined, altered the way the SEC measured their capital. Using computerized models, the SEC, under its new Consolidated Supervised Entities program, allowed the broker dealers to increase their debt-to-net-capital ratios, sometimes, as in the case of Merrill Lynch, to as high as 40-to-1. It also removed the method for applying haircuts, relying instead on another math-based model for calculating risk that led to a much smaller discount.
So when you hear Paulson and Bush (AKA THE BOLSHEVIKS) tell you that the reason for the problem we are in is HOUSING, please realize they are lying to you. They are not just mistaken. They are lying to you. They know better. Any investment can drop 20, 30, 40% without causing catastrophe. It is the leveraging up of these declining assets that cause the problem. "Hank Paulson was the pointman in creating this leverage...and no one seems to care. And no one seems to care that he is now in charge of fixing this problem by creating the largest hedge fund in history...managed by who? Yup...Goldman Sachs!"
While I am no fan of the NY Times, I urge you to read yesterday's article about how Goldman Sachs is now taking everything over...all brought to you by Hank Paulson. I still don't get how this guy, who came from leverage land, could persuade so many to vote for a bill so quickly. All I keep hearing is that the markets would have been much worse without the passing of the bill. "Who is convincing these people of this? Yup...Hank Paulson." I guess we will never know what would have happened without such a bill.
I wanted to give you a little history lesson as there remains so much misinformation and so much dart throwing by pundits who have been bullish all the way down and magically converted into bears out of nowhere in recent weeks. On top of that, those same people who have been calling bottoms all the way down, continue with their nonsensical stance of the market being cheap...the market is a value...the economy is soft but will be ok...and if you sell now, you are going to miss the buy of a lifetime...and lots more of the blah blah blah. The latest excuse to buy is that Warren Buffett bought stock. Even though he said his timing could be off by a year and even though this man is worth $50 billion, just follow Warren and dive right in. Here are the facts.
The market has been bearish for many areas starting back in early '07, with other areas topping in July...with major indices topping in October...with NDX-types topping in January...with flopping and chopping most of '08 before commodities topped July 2 and have crashed along with the rest of the market recently. But again, that does not stop the pundits.
My first problem: I am hearing this will be a small recession. HMMM! If it is going to be small, why did the market drop almost 50%?
My second problem: I am hearing all kinds of calls of bottom...still...as well as the worst is over. The question I have been asked several hundred times this week has been: is the worst over? My answer...MAYBE! COULD BE! I WILL LET YOU KNOW!
Those calling the worst over have not studied history. Bear markets do not just bottom...especially bad bear markets. Going all the way back to the bear that ended in '32, there was a double bottom formed with the first low in June of '32 and the second in February of '33. In 1956, the first low was in May with the second low in November. During '62, the first low occurred in June with the second low in October. There was also a double bottom in the nightmarish '73-'74 bear market (which in my opinion, has now been passed by this one) where the first low came in October with the second low in December. Fast forward to 1982 where that bear ended with a double bottom with the first low occurring in March and the second low coming in August.
In 1987, the first low occurred in October with the second low in December. The market then sat around for a good year before moving up. Even the quick bear market in 1998 traced out a double bottom. Lastly, in the last bear of 2000-03, the first low was put in October of '02 before the final low in March of '03. We know anything can happen...but we have our studies of history on our side. Remember, fear and greed are emotions for the ages. They do not change, regardless of the decade. They just have different degrees to how far they go. So while most continue to just yap, we have some forensic evidence of what odds favor will occur.
There is simply no leadership. Most stocks remain way below longer term moving averages. There are zero bases. There are no sectors in an uptrend...though one sector, the AIRLINES is trying to emerge. WORLD MARKETS have been leading down...and I can go on and on. Shorter term, anything can happen. Last week's action is indicative of a market that is stretched to the norm, thus the ridiculous intraday swings. I have the sneaking suspicion we may now be tracing out a range between recent lows and recent highs...with the market making it tough for both short and long. I am taking my time. During Thursday's follow through day, I took a long proxy for the first time in months. I felt terrible on Friday's poor open...felt better midday, felt real good when market was up 300 and felt like a few shots of tequila were necessary by 4 p.m. EST...and that's just being a wee bit invested. To show you what I mean by this ridiculous intraday action, check these numbers out:
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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I was trying to look up her record to see if she has ever been right before. I wonder just how many analysts are trying to show their feathers now when a few of us even like me have seen where we would be for so long already.
Posts: 7064 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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posted
The DOW has tested the bottom twice since I changed my view to negative. Tomorrow will be very telling. I think we may break it after the Paulson blunder. What a boob. I would be interested to see if he has contacts with known short sellers.
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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quote:Originally posted by invester: The DOW has tested the bottom twice since I changed my view to negative. Tomorrow will be very telling. I think we may break it after the Paulson blunder. What a boob. I would be interested to see if he has contacts with known short sellers.
No more than Greenspan that's for sure. Good luck to us all.
Posts: 7064 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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quote:Originally posted by invester: The DOW has tested the bottom twice since I changed my view to negative. Tomorrow will be very telling. I think we may break it after the Paulson blunder. What a boob. I would be interested to see if he has contacts with known short sellers.
No more than Greenspan that's for sure. Good luck to us all.
This began with Greenspan as interest rates were low entirely to long. It ended with the ridiculous Hank Paulson asking congress to lift the rule on leverage from 15-1 to 40-1. I can't believe these are the people running our country. My closest friends are MUCH smarter than any of these individuals. Greenspan" I didn't know that leaving interest rates these u unseen levels would have these consequences". You’re the fed chief, unintended consequences should be you forte. bernanke, paulsen, and the whole bunch are the most educated but inactive individuals. I left there names non-capitalized because I don’t feel they deserved my accreditation. I have seen in recent memory. May god have mercy on there ridicules souls.
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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posted
I'll be trying to make up a new chart this weekend. See if I can take it through 1st Q next year.
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7064 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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posted
I wonder if Citi "C" will get bought. I never thought I would say a once $300 billion market cap company would potentially be a buyout candidate.
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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certainly doesn't take much. NO patience and 0 tolerance
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7064 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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posted
what'd you expect? paulson got on TV again..
i'm pretty sure i'll be going long BGU before 2PM tomorrow for a big runup....
d'oh, i forgot tomorrow is Friday... i'll prolly wait to go long...
-------------------- With lies, you may move ahead in the world, but you can never go back. Posts: 30263 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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quote:Originally posted by glassman: what'd you expect? paulson got on TV again..
WAAAAAHAHAHAHAHA!!! NO DOUBT!!!
GOTTA HOLD ABOVE MY 7300 LINE AT LEAST UNTILL I GET NEW CHARTS OUT THIS WEEKEND!!!
Japan down almost 7% this morning, wonder what they're thinking now!
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7064 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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posted
i'm beginning to think Paulson is intentionally trying to drive this thing into the ground...
-------------------- With lies, you may move ahead in the world, but you can never go back. Posts: 30263 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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quote:Originally posted by glassman: i'm beginning to think Paulson is intentionally trying to drive this thing into the ground...
As I said before, I would like to know if he has contacts with known short sellers.
remember how they banned shorting in "selected" finacial co's whne the shorts began going after them (Goldman in particular)
-------------------- With lies, you may move ahead in the world, but you can never go back. Posts: 30263 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
wow. I brought my fin list back this morning. Check out MBI and a couple others and see how MBI dipped BELOW july's low. Dat aint a good sign imo, as if we needed another bit of bad news. We're headed lower (duh) and quite possibly looking to shed another 100 pts on the S&P, just a quick glance and you can see the next support level sticking out like a sore thumb. I feel only one slight drift of warm breeze blowing in from the right, dems knew they weren't going to get their gazillions for the auto so they all grouped together demanding they come up with some sort of "plan" so they can weasel their deal through in December. Total hogwash if anyone believes even one word of what they have to say other than "we need help or we're goin under". Even Ford's new 2009 Flex is under 25 MPG ( http://www.billsmithford.com/car.aspx?Car=http://cpanel.tkcarsites.com/DigitalBr ochures/Digi.aspx?year=2009&make=Ford&model=Flex&bodystyle=OD&sstyle=all&identif ier=1&smode=1&sid=258&pid=&did=140 ). Sick, just sick. At least they might have a ghost of a chance of avoiding bk if the package is denied and gm goes bk to cut off the auto workers union. imo their arrogance needs to be checked, not the UAWU but the directors of the big 3. Their studios just need to have better products, isn't that what the first 25B was for? to stimulate new tech? Look at what quantum fuels has and a few others, problem is, cut off GM's funding for these new VC's and they go down with the ship. So what to do... the warm fuzzy i got a drift of was the sense that gov't might actually show some constraint and demand a little validity - if even for show.
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7064 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7064 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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