quote:Originally posted by invester: Dead cat bounce? LoL. I called it at 7900 at the open Friday. We are now at 9175.
Sorry, I thought the market ended in the red on Friday, thus the dead cat bounce didn't begin on Friday.
Just puzzled on your way of thinkin' is all...
"Market Bottom Hits Today" and "Dead Cat Bounce" are two opposite statements.
Thus, I am puzzled to your way of thinking again.
My way of thinking? You have a huge sell off on Thursday, then a 700 point down open on Friday only to recover all of that and gain 300. It then only ended down 128. The VIX was at an all time high. This was a classic bottom a mile a way.
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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-------------------- With lies, you may move ahead in the world, but you can never go back. Posts: 30263 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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quote:Originally posted by Peaser: We've got a ways to go before we see a bottom to this market IMO.
Still waiting for a confirmation of a bottom. Haven't seen one yet.
As g mentioned before, a double or triple bottom needs to be seen before anoyne can claim "being right."
The definition of a dead cat bounce is a precipitous decline followed by a bounce in the market. I'm saying that this was not just a dead cat bounce. I called the bottom at 7900. Are you saying it's going to break 7900?
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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I will say this; I've never seen a continuation the next day after the biggest point day ever in the market. Should see a little selling tomorrow but a continuation the following days.
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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Credit markets were closed today IE: the real problem. If you look at the futures, it looks as if credit is going to ease. I look for LIBOR to come down over the next week. If so, we fly!!!!!
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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Nice call, but I'd be careful and watch the currency markets tonight folks. They moved with equities today, but not with the same conviction or momentum.
I don't think the rest of the world is buying the turnaround just yet...at least not from an increased "risk appetite" perspective.
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Cramer just did a whole piece on a stock I'm in, and was talking about earlier today in this thread. CHK Chesapeake Energy. Nice!!!
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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quote:Originally posted by Peaser: We've got a ways to go before we see a bottom to this market IMO.
Still waiting for a confirmation of a bottom. Haven't seen one yet.
As g mentioned before, a double or triple bottom needs to be seen before anoyne can claim "being right."
He got it right in my book. Doesn't mean it won't dip again - and I think along the same lines as you that it will. wtg invester
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7064 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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i need to hear more about how this bailout is being structured.
it APPEARS to me that the good traders are buying in with the understanding that the US Govt is going to buy TOO...
after they buy? the market will turn back down...
this has to be one of the boldest moves ever by any economist. i'm very skeptical that it will be a good long term fix.
-------------------- With lies, you may move ahead in the world, but you can never go back. Posts: 30263 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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this stock buy-back plan is pure socialism. the government is now in full control of anybody they buy into. this is a deal with the devil himself IMO.
i liked the plan to buy bad debt much better. it would have taken longer for the market to recover, but it would have been a healthy recovery..
-------------------- With lies, you may move ahead in the world, but you can never go back. Posts: 30263 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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I'm amazed that we haven't seen at least a small dip after the biggest point day ever.
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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OK, we are about "halfway" backway to the last low from the retrace to 9800....
i am tempted to buy back in with half my long-term investments at 8000.
here's where it gets nervewracking. wait for the bottom and buy on the way up and maybe miss it? or buy on the way down and watch the bottom be 7000 or even 6500?
-------------------- With lies, you may move ahead in the world, but you can never go back. Posts: 30263 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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quote:Originally posted by glassman: OK, we are about "halfway" backway to the last low from the retrace to 9800....
i am tempted to buy back in with half my long-term investments at 8000.
here's where it gets nervewracking. wait for the bottom and buy on the way up and maybe miss it? or buy on the way down and watch the bottom be 7000 or even 6500?
I don't think so. We may retest the 7900 level, but credit seems to be easing slowly but finally happening. Government backstops etc.... I would wait until tomorrow as we could have one more day. Maybe 25%-30% here, then the rest tomorrow through Friday.
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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tough choice. I'm in the same boat with my TSP. I'm waiting though. We very easily could see Investers low again. And if we don't, I don't mind missing bottom.
-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7064 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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Have you been listening to Bloomberg or CNBC????
The credit problem is shifting from morgages...to credit cards now....they say that the credit cards are now just starting to see record write-offs/charge-offs on credit cards now....the problem will just get worse..
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-------------------- All post are my opinion. Do your own DD. Who's clicking your buy/sell button!? Posts: 7064 | From: Virginia | Registered: May 2006
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quote:Originally posted by Ace of Spades: Have you been listening to Bloomberg or CNBC????
The credit problem is shifting from morgages...to credit cards now....they say that the credit cards are now just starting to see record write-offs/charge-offs on credit cards now....the problem will just get worse..
Although credit cards are a problem, the main problem at hand is the mortgage market and getting the banks to loan again. If people default on there credit cards that is a much smaller problem Than the CDO, and CDS problem. I'm not saying we are out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination; I'm merely speaking from the standpoint of the banks, and lending. Credit cards are a MUCH smaller issue. I know that with impending debt and burden on households, it will lead to less spending and no consumer driven release from the resection. I feel we may touch the lows but never break.
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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It's also the Medias JOB to play situations up for ratings. You have to know that. DOOM AND GLOOM!!!!!! I'm not saying it’s not a tough market, but we as a society and out government have taken the necessary steps to relive the situation i.e.: bailout, interest rate cut, government backstops, socialism for the banking industry, etc........
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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quote:Originally posted by Ace of Spades: Have you been listening to Bloomberg or CNBC????
The credit problem is shifting from morgages...to credit cards now....they say that the credit cards are now just starting to see record write-offs/charge-offs on credit cards now....the problem will just get worse..
Although credit cards are a problem, the main problem at hand is the mortgage market and getting the banks to loan again. If people default on there credit cards that is a much smaller problem Than the CDO, and CDS problem. I'm not saying we are out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination; I'm merely speaking from the standpoint of the banks, and lending. Credit cards are a MUCH smaller issue. I know that with impending debt and burden on households, it will lead to less spending and no consumer driven release from the resection. I feel we may touch the lows but never break.
Bro...you could not be more wrong!!!
The problem isn't credit from credit cards or credit from mortagages....it's just credit period.
And all the major banks are just now starting to see huge amounts of charge offs/writeoffs from credit cards now
And some of the banks like captiol one....who were already exposed to subprime mess...are now just starting to get in more trouble with credit cards....
Thus creating the perfect storm for disaster...You will here alot more about this in the comming days/weeks Posts: 2297 | Registered: Aug 2006
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quote:Originally posted by Ace of Spades: Have you been listening to Bloomberg or CNBC????
The credit problem is shifting from morgages...to credit cards now....they say that the credit cards are now just starting to see record write-offs/charge-offs on credit cards now....the problem will just get worse..
Although credit cards are a problem, the main problem at hand is the mortgage market and getting the banks to loan again. If people default on there credit cards that is a much smaller problem Than the CDO, and CDS problem. I'm not saying we are out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination; I'm merely speaking from the standpoint of the banks, and lending. Credit cards are a MUCH smaller issue. I know that with impending debt and burden on households, it will lead to less spending and no consumer driven release from the resection. I feel we may touch the lows but never break.
Bro...you could not be more wrong!!!
The problem isn't credit from credit cards or credit from mortagages....it's just credit period.
And all the major banks are just now starting to see huge amounts of charge offs/writeoffs from credit cards now
And some of the banks like captiol one....who were already exposed to subprime mess...are now just starting to get in more trouble with credit cards....
Thus creating the perfect storm for disaster...You will here alot more about this in the comming days/weeks
The coming days? I've heard about the credit card problems for weeks now. I'm not as worried about this issue as you are
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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I just re-read your statement when you said “ I couldn't be more wrong”. I was merely combining two thoughts when I said credit and the lending aspect of mortgages. I know that it’s all credit environments. People can’t get loans for cars, and even Caterpillar was having trouble getting a short term loan for machinery. If CAT is having a problem obviously everyone is. I follow LIBOR and SWAPS every day. I’m very familiar..
Posts: 3607 | From: houston | Registered: Mar 2006
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quote:Originally posted by BooDog: tough choice. I'm in the same boat with my TSP. I'm waiting though. We very easily could see Investers low again. And if we don't, I don't mind missing bottom.
i think we'll make new lows. i'm going to wait to pull the trigger...
BTW? on the TSP? remember it takes 2-3 days after you place your "orders" i know that sounds like a short amount of time, but with all the programmed trading going on? it's likely to be a 1000 point difference...
-------------------- With lies, you may move ahead in the world, but you can never go back. Posts: 30263 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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We won't hit bottom until this thread and discussion are forgotten, and replaced with other concerns.
Posts: 602 | Registered: Aug 2005
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So am I interpreting all this wisely... wait a couple days to get in? There might be bleaker times yet to come?
It's like glassman said, there has to be an absolute low and there has to be an hour/day/week where the conservative investor is one step behind the inevitable surge in the market.
Personally, I want to be the guy that jumps in right before that surge. Let's pool some knowledge Posts: 8 | From: Wisconsin | Registered: Oct 2008
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