Bakersfield, Calif.-based Tri-Valley (amex: TIV - news - people ) produces oil and natural gas. Unlike most oil and gas companies, Tri-Valley is down over the past 52 weeks, having lost about half of its value in that time. Rising expenses knocked the bottom line from a 2004 loss of $1.2 million to a 2005 loss of $9.7 million, despite strong revenue gains. The company has been saying this spring that it will dig its wells deeper in order to get more natural gas. Gurus thought that sounded like a good plan and bought in last week.
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In early January, Tri-Valley Corporation acquired oil properties in Kern county California and already made its first shipment of oil only weeks later from those properties. The company has also recently acquired additional oil rigs to immediately increase oil production. The oil field is located next to the 3rd highest producing oil field in the contiguous United States. Some quick facts about Kern county, California-
-Kern County produces 211 million barrels of oil per year(577,000 barrels per day) -Kern County produces 10% of the total oil production in the entire United States. -Kern County is the largest oil producing county in California -Kern County accounts for 66% of total oil production in California -If Kern County was a state in its own right, it would rank right behind Texas, Alaska and Louisiana as the fourth largest oil producer in the country out of the 50 states. -33,000 wells(out of the state's 43,000) total operating wells.
This could be a huge play very soon with a 22 million outstanding share count. The insider buys from last week are a sign of great things to come. On 5/10/06 there were 200,000 shares bought by insiders at $6.35 a share, totaling $1.27 million dollars. Volume has been up significantly the past two days, triple over the daily average volume. This stock is a bargain right now trading near its 52 week low at $5.88 per share. Lots of upside potential from here considering the recent increased oil production activity by the company. The company also owns other oil and natural gas producing properties along with gold properties also. This stock is the perfect play considering the high oil prices of $70 per barrel and gold prices also hitting new highs. Gold prices are up from $450 an ounce in November 2005 to its current price of $732 an ounce.
From the TIV website-
Tri-Valley Corporation is a publicly traded oil and gas, as well as gold and mineral exploration and production company. Our mission is to acquire, explore and develop prospective properties of merit. The company is listed on the American Stock Exchange and trades under the symbol TIV.
Tri-Valley’s properties are located in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys of California and the Midland Trail Prospect in Nevada. Tri-Valley’s mining claims are located near Fairbanks, Alaska. The principal properties of the Company consist of proven and unproven oil and gas and precious metal properties, maps, geologic records related to prospective oil and gas and precious metal properties, office and other equipment and cash.
The oil and gas properties in which the Company holds interests are primarily located in the areas of central California known as the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley, a premier petroleum producing area of the western hemisphere. The daily production of oil from this area equals 40% of the entire state of Texas daily production. TVC also has 17,500 acres under lease in Nevada. The Company is acquiring a fleet of drilling and production rigs for its own account. The precious metal properties are located in interior Alaska. All claims are on the mining-friendly State of Alaska open lands requiring annual assessment of its work and an annual per claim fee. All fees are current on the approximately 53-square-mile claim blocks. The company has no Federal or private land claims.
In addition to extensive gold and silver values, TVC has recovered diamonds and diamond indicator minerals at the Richardson, Alaska site.
The public parent is owned by about 5,000 shareholders in all 50 states and a dozen foreign countries. They hold over 22,600,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding from an authority of 100 million.
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Tri-Valley Unit Fills Out Production Rig Fleet Monday May 8, 8:05 am ET
BAKERSFIELD, Calif., May 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Great Valley Production Services LLC, a subsidiary of Tri-Valley Corporation (Amex: TIV - News), has successfully filled out its initial fleet goal of at least five workover rigs, giving it capability to work on the shallowest wells from a few hundred feet up to 18,000 feet with 2 7/8 inch tubing.
This enables Tri-Valley to work continuously on its growing inventory of existing wells while drilling new ones on its properties to ramp up production this year. Two of the rigs are also capable of drilling vertical and horizontal wells of 5,000 to 8,000 feet.
Great Valley is mobilizing one shallow rig this week to work over 17 idle wells on its Temblor Valley property abutting the giant South Belridge Oilfield some 40 miles west of Bakersfield, California. A second rig is mobilizing to drill a new 4,000 foot well on the same property. This well will core several hydrocarbon-bearing sections to identify the optimum formation and characteristics for drilling additional horizontal wells.
Three other rigs are in various stages of being refurbished to "better than new" with modern pumps, engines and digital equipment. Rig 105 will pull 250,000 lbs and drill to 8,000 feet and is one of the few in California of that capability and capacity.
"Tri-Valley Oil & Gas Co. has development properties with well programs that will employ the full range of its fleet capacity. Tri-Valley intends to steadily increase production to the goal of thousands of barrels per day as we restore production on idle wells and drill new wells, especially horizontal and hydraulically fractured bores that typically deliver at higher rates than conventional vertical wells. With this newly acquired rig fleet, Tri-Valley should be able to continuously develop its properties to build revenue and share value rather than intermittently due to the chronic and worsening rig shortage," said F. Lynn Blystone, Tri-Valley Corporation president and chief executive officer.
This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results, events and performance could vary materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements which includes such words and phrases as exploratory, wildcat, prospect, speculates, unproved, prospective, very large, expect, potential, etc. Among the factors that could cause actual results, events and performance to differ materially are risks and uncertainties discussed in the company's quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2005, and the annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005.
The Company is in its 43rd year of business as a successful operating company and for 32 years has been a full reporting 12 (g) publicly traded Delaware Corporation. Tri-Valley Corporation stock is publicly traded on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol "TIV" in the United States and is also traded in Europe on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange under the symbol "TVC WKN 911919." Our company websites, which include all SEC filings, are www.tri-valleycorp.com and www.tri-valley.de.
CONTACT: F. LYNN BLYSTONE, PRESIDENT & CEO TRI-VALLEY CORPORATION 1-800-579-9314
By: megawatt 13 May 2006, 01:12 PM EDT Msg. 14620 of 14627 Jump to msg. # Here are some conservative thoughts regarding TIV share price valuation:
I am getting the valuation, based solely on Pleasant Valley and Temblor to be at least $15/share, especially as the production is schedulled to increase significantly from those fields, beginning with Temblor Valley:
“According to Calgary's FirstEnergy Capital Corp., Shell Canada is offering the highest price yet for oil sands production, agreeing to pay more than $171,000 per barrel of daily production and more than $11 per barrel of estimated reserves.”
“In a major step forward in its 2005 business plan, Tri-Valley Corporation (AMEX TIV) has successfully closed on the acquisition of Pleasant Valley Energy Corporation whose sole assets are California oil and gas leases which have been independently estimated to contain 24 million barrels of proven, undeveloped recoverable oil using a 26% recovery factor of the oil in place in just the shallowest of several zones using then conventional recovery methods.”
Pleasant Valley has a resource similar to oil sands in Canada such as in the recent purchase by Shell Canada of BlackRock the following estimates are provided for your consideration: (Please note that I have not factored in any multiples to the actual valuation.)
93,000,000 bbl x $11/bbl x .25 (tiv’s proportion of Opus) = $256,000,000
$256,000,000/22,300,000 shares = $11.5/share
TIV current share price = Less than $6.00
Then, there is the Temblor. The March 17, 2006 press release,
suggests API 26 to 28 gravity oil is probable. This is medium gravity oil, which is more easily recovered and probably commands a higher price. There is already some production from Temblor and more production appears eminent. The Company estimates the potential recovery from an average 200 feet of pay within its lease boundaries could be in the range of 30 million barrels or more for Tri-Valley and its partners using only 500 barrels per acre foot, a common and conservative formula for the area.
30,000,000 bbl x $11/bbl x .25 (tiv’s proportion of Opus) = $82,500,000
$82,500,000/22,300,000 shares = $3.7/share
$3.7/share does not consider the positive net differential between oil sands (heavy oil) and Temblor medium gravity oil.
$3.7/share + $11.5/share = $15.2/share
While $15.2 per share is prior to higher production levels, it does not factor in the current Rio Vista or Dutch Slough Production, Moffat natural gas reserves and whatever additional lighter (higher API gravity) zones that might be found in the Temblor, Pleasant Valley and Moffat properties, nor does it include any value for Tri-Valley's Chowchilla, Ekho, Sunrise, and Midland Trail potential.
TIV could easily double or more from where it is very quickly. I brought in real buyers Thursday and Friday and tripled the volume. That was just tier one. Bigger guns come in Monday. Then even bigger guns are following them.
The pre-existing TIV shareholder base is sitting up at attention as they've been waiting for this for some time.
The float on TIV is not just super low, TIV's FLOAT IS IN THE NEGATIVE to the tune of 3M shares due to:
1. Shorts on record for 15-20% bet against the OS with under 4M short positions out.
2. Heavy naked shorting by shorts to maximize the payoff on their legit short bets. Go read that Yahoo board and you'll know it is true. These shorts sold naked shorts into heavy accumulation last week to push the buying pressure back. I estimate the naked short position has now gone over 1M shares as well. They were already weakening in their resolve to stuff the onslaught by the end of the day Friday.
3. The dedication of insiders and real investors holding their shares tight means even without a short position of roughly 5M (legit shorts + naked shorts) against a 23M OS the effective float would still be very tight. TIV management is quite sure the majority shareholder is static leaving only 1-2M in effective trading float. Even 2M real float means there is debit of 3M in the float until the shorts cover.
You got it. TIV has a float debit of 3M shares.
The company is super undervalued due to a longer term short attack pushing the stock down.
The company is on the verge of major revenue increases now with confirmed activity with their own drilling rigs (they own them now and they are hard to obtain) in fields with proven ready to flow reserves right next door plus an existing pipeline and infrastructure which will bring the oil to market immediately.
TIV is going profitable this year and has at least 100M barrels under their feet. They are a domestic producer at a time when it matters.
TIV stock is bottomed out. Rebound players are climbing on board too.
TIV shorts are really getting angry. Good sign.
BIG SHORT SQUEEZE COMING. Watch TIV double soon.
Then watch TIV climb much higher into the Fall as revenues ramp and they are doing thousands of barrels a day. Then it climbs to tens of thousands the next year. Independent analysts inside the big brokerage behemoths put TIV's reserve values at $100 a share.
TIV's new production flow hitting the books this Summer will trigger their ability to state book value for each barrel coming out of the ground. This SEC obstacle will be progressively overcome as production ramps and as revenues increase so will TIV's intrinsic asset value being able to be added to shareholder equity.
TIV can be a $40+ stock in 2006 and many longs and savvy buyers now getting on board know it. First comes the short squeeze to get the monkey off of the stock's back, then comes longer term valuation gains.
TIV SHORT SQUEEZE coming to a theater near you. Don't miss it.
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Just hit $7, I first posted about the stock at $5.88 a week and a half ago and this one has still has plenty of upside. Should be trading at $12
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The nice thing about all this, TIV is doing this on no news. Just wait till updates on the Temblor and Plesant Valley properties are released. The shorts will have to cover. 22 million O/S and 4 million shares shorted. This stock will see new highs. This could be one of the biggest AMEX short squeezes of the year. If Forbes is buying TIV, that can only mean good things.
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Significant price movements within the next 30-60 days. This is isint a POS OTCBB or Pinksheet stock. This is a real company in a hot sector, no worries. TIV was trading at $14-$17 a share last year and that was without any oil production. Now the company is producing and buying their own drilling rigs.
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TIV way oversold by short sellers by: up_investor Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 05/25/06 09:30 am Msg: 44672 of 44679
If you read my previous post, you see the profile of a small company about to explode into a very large company. Before the oil production and before the company owned rigs, short sellers shorted TIV as if the company were going bankrupt; and if it weren't, they would simply short the company out of existence. At the point that shorts were about 4 million shares short and maybe another 1 million shares naked, the oil began to flow and they started placing their own rigs in the field to exploit their new, three proven reserves.
Some very large investors recognizing the short sellers' quandry, stepped in to begin slowly and methodically accumulating shares. We are now in the very beginning of this accumulation process. These big investors are represented on this board by i_am_eye_n_eye, who has posted every step of this process and his predictions have been right on the money.
There is also a partnership called Opus-1, which has funded and continues to fund exploration activities at NO COST OR RISK to stockholders. This exploration and purchases of excellent potential reserves is now paying Opus & TIV royalties, which are predetermined to grow every consecutive month, indefinitely.
The short sellers have been bashing for years, but those are obvious and have obvious names like I hate TIV or whatever. We have the typical paid bashers, but that goes with the territory.
The situation now is that short sellers continue to furnish phantom shares to those accumulating stock, which is the only way shares can be had, since Opus and a few large investors own virtually all the stock, which coupled with an approximate 5 million shares short interest - of a 21 million share float - may actually leave us in a situation where we have a "negative" float.
I don't have to tell you what that means. I have been in this situation before with a company called TZOO, which I bought under $4 per share. To make a long story short, I sold at $86 as it went to $110. It is now around $25, which is probably where it belongs.
So, investors, this looks like it may be a very good entry point. Do your DD and see you on the other side.
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May 25, 2006 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- Streetinvesting.com has focused our attention on Falcon Energy Inc, MIDWEST AIR GROUP INC (AMEX:MEH), TRI VALLEY CORP (AMEX:TIV), DARWIN PROF UNDERWRITERS (AMEX:DR), SPARK NETWORKS PLC ADS (AMEX:LOV), GAINSCO INC (AMEX:GAN), and LADENBURGTHALMANN FNCL (AMEX:LTS) With recent corporate developments, a large interest in the markets and trading volumes holding steady, our research professionals are interested in the future for these public companies. Streetinvesting.com strives to help investors seek a diversified portfolio by introducing techniques to help grasp a better understanding and concept of the market and the daily activities that a company experiences. Streetinvesting.com will be tracking these company attentively for the subsequent weeks and keep interested investors and shareholders posted on any new findings and behind-the-scenes update. For a complimentary and comprehensive report on our current analysis and opinions, please visit www.streetinvesting.com for a free membership subscription.
TRI VALLEY CORP (AMEX:TIV)
With 127,300 shares trading hands and prices up 4.52%, this company continues to be of interest to investors.
Tri-Valley Corp is in the business of exploring, acquiring and developing prospective and producing petroleum and precious metals properties and interests therein. Tri-Valley has two wholly owned subsidiaries. Tri-Valley Oil & Gas Company operates the oil & gas activities and derives the majority of their revenue from gas production. Tri-Valley Power Corporation is the other wholly owned subsidiary. However, this subsidiary is inactive at the present time. The precious metals activity is operated directly by Tri-Valley Corporation.
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Repo, Still in TIV? I wouldnt even think about selling, the fun has just started. Were gonna see a short squeeze here in the next few weeks IMO.
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Definitely very possible, 22 million O/S and 4 million shares shorted. Thats a massive short position for such a small O/S. And thats not even counting the naked short shares, some are speculating that the naked short shares are in the 1 million range due to 100,000 share blocks being traded back and fourth between accounts everyday so, that would give TIV 5 million shares shorted with a float of less than 19 million. The big short sellers in this stock that shorted TIV at $10-12 dont have a chance in hell of covering to break even.
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Yeah I was about to say, I hope you loaded up at $7. But if you can keep your cost average under $8, this is still an easy double. Remember this is an AMEX stock not some POS OTCBB or Pinksheet. Thats why I loaded up in the $5s and low 6s but, still plenty of room for this to run.
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I understand, Ive been in that situation before also but, cant complain about a profit right? Many people I know are saying this will be one of the biggest AMEX short squeezes of the year. Its starting to look that way. This will last for several weeks. The only question is, how high does TIV go? $20 easily IMO.
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