posted
In early January, Tri-Valley Corporation acquired oil properties in Kern county California and already made its first shipment of oil only weeks later from those properties. The company has also recently acquired additional oil rigs to immediately increase oil production. The oil field is located next to the 3rd highest producing oil field in the contiguous United States. Some quick facts about Kern county, California-
-Kern County produces 211 million barrels of oil per year(577,000 barrels per day) -Kern County produces 10% of the total oil production in the entire United States. -Kern County is the largest oil producing county in California -Kern County accounts for 66% of total oil production in California -If Kern County was a state in its own right, it would rank right behind Texas, Alaska and Louisiana as the fourth largest oil producer in the country out of the 50 states. -33,000 wells(out of the state's 43,000) total operating wells.
This could be a huge play very soon with a 22 million outstanding share count. The insider buys from last week are a sign of great things to come. On 5/10/06 there were 200,000 shares bought by insiders at $6.35 a share, totaling $1.27 million dollars. Volume has been up significantly the past two days, triple over the daily average volume. This stock is a bargain right now trading near its 52 week low at $5.88 per share. Lots of upside potential from here considering the recent increased oil production activity by the company. The company also owns other oil and natural gas producing properties along with gold properties also. This stock is the perfect play considering the high oil prices of $70 per barrel and gold prices also hitting new highs. Gold prices are up from $450 an ounce in November 2005 to its current price of $732 an ounce.
From the TIV website-
Tri-Valley Corporation is a publicly traded oil and gas, as well as gold and mineral exploration and production company. Our mission is to acquire, explore and develop prospective properties of merit. The company is listed on the American Stock Exchange and trades under the symbol TIV.
Tri-Valley’s properties are located in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys of California and the Midland Trail Prospect in Nevada. Tri-Valley’s mining claims are located near Fairbanks, Alaska. The principal properties of the Company consist of proven and unproven oil and gas and precious metal properties, maps, geologic records related to prospective oil and gas and precious metal properties, office and other equipment and cash.
The oil and gas properties in which the Company holds interests are primarily located in the areas of central California known as the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley, a premier petroleum producing area of the western hemisphere. The daily production of oil from this area equals 40% of the entire state of Texas daily production. TVC also has 17,500 acres under lease in Nevada. The Company is acquiring a fleet of drilling and production rigs for its own account. The precious metal properties are located in interior Alaska. All claims are on the mining-friendly State of Alaska open lands requiring annual assessment of its work and an annual per claim fee. All fees are current on the approximately 53-square-mile claim blocks. The company has no Federal or private land claims.
In addition to extensive gold and silver values, TVC has recovered diamonds and diamond indicator minerals at the Richardson, Alaska site.
The public parent is owned by about 5,000 shareholders in all 50 states and a dozen foreign countries. They hold over 22,600,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding from an authority of 100 million.
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Tri-Valley Unit Fills Out Production Rig Fleet Monday May 8, 8:05 am ET
BAKERSFIELD, Calif., May 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Great Valley Production Services LLC, a subsidiary of Tri-Valley Corporation (Amex: TIV - News), has successfully filled out its initial fleet goal of at least five workover rigs, giving it capability to work on the shallowest wells from a few hundred feet up to 18,000 feet with 2 7/8 inch tubing.
This enables Tri-Valley to work continuously on its growing inventory of existing wells while drilling new ones on its properties to ramp up production this year. Two of the rigs are also capable of drilling vertical and horizontal wells of 5,000 to 8,000 feet.
Great Valley is mobilizing one shallow rig this week to work over 17 idle wells on its Temblor Valley property abutting the giant South Belridge Oilfield some 40 miles west of Bakersfield, California. A second rig is mobilizing to drill a new 4,000 foot well on the same property. This well will core several hydrocarbon-bearing sections to identify the optimum formation and characteristics for drilling additional horizontal wells.
Three other rigs are in various stages of being refurbished to "better than new" with modern pumps, engines and digital equipment. Rig 105 will pull 250,000 lbs and drill to 8,000 feet and is one of the few in California of that capability and capacity.
"Tri-Valley Oil & Gas Co. has development properties with well programs that will employ the full range of its fleet capacity. Tri-Valley intends to steadily increase production to the goal of thousands of barrels per day as we restore production on idle wells and drill new wells, especially horizontal and hydraulically fractured bores that typically deliver at higher rates than conventional vertical wells. With this newly acquired rig fleet, Tri-Valley should be able to continuously develop its properties to build revenue and share value rather than intermittently due to the chronic and worsening rig shortage," said F. Lynn Blystone, Tri-Valley Corporation president and chief executive officer.
This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results, events and performance could vary materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements which includes such words and phrases as exploratory, wildcat, prospect, speculates, unproved, prospective, very large, expect, potential, etc. Among the factors that could cause actual results, events and performance to differ materially are risks and uncertainties discussed in the company's quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2005, and the annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005.
The Company is in its 43rd year of business as a successful operating company and for 32 years has been a full reporting 12 (g) publicly traded Delaware Corporation. Tri-Valley Corporation stock is publicly traded on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol "TIV" in the United States and is also traded in Europe on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange under the symbol "TVC WKN 911919." Our company websites, which include all SEC filings, are www.tri-valleycorp.com and www.tri-valley.de.
CONTACT: F. LYNN BLYSTONE, PRESIDENT & CEO TRI-VALLEY CORPORATION 1-800-579-9314
posted
Tri-Valley Begins Asset Exploitation Thursday May 11, 11:09 am ET
BAKERSFIELD, CA--(MARKET WIRE)--May 11, 2006 -- Tri-Valley Corporation (AMEX:TIV - News) has begun exploitation of its Temblor Valley oil property in preparing location for the first test well and moving production and drill rigs to the property next week. All this activity is designed to rapidly build production and revenue from investment the Company made earlier.
The production rig will workover 17 idle stripper wells before beginning workovers on 25 currently producing wells to maximize production from all existing well bores. These wells all produce from the shallow Etchegoin formation at only 750 feet.
After studying the field, the Company believes greater potential of new, flush production lies in the deeper diatomite zone beginning at 750 feet where it expects to encounter 28 gravity free flowing oil.
Tri-Valley has filed notice to drill four Lundin-Weber wells which will be cored to examine all formations to 4,000 feet. The wells will likely be completed in the diatomite section and then hydraulically fractured to enhance production and provide data to design subsequent horizontal wells usually capable of producing at several times the rates of vertical wells.
"Tri-Valley has incurred substantial planned losses in assembling these assets. With our own rig fleet in house we are exploiting these properties now in a march to restore greater profitability than ever before," said F. Lynn Blystone, president and chief executive officer.
This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results, events and performance could vary materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements which includes such words and phrases as exploratory, wildcat, prospect, speculates, unproved, prospective, very large, expect, potential, etc. Among the factors that could cause actual results, events and performance to differ materially are risks and uncertainties discussed in the company's quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2006, and the annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005.
The Company is in its 43rd year of business as a successful operating company and for 32 years has been a full reporting 12 (g) publicly traded Delaware Corporation. Tri-Valley Corporation stock is publicly traded on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol "TIV" in the United States and is also traded in Europe on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange under the symbol "TVC WKN 911919." Our company websites, which include all SEC filings, are www.tri-valleycorp.com and www.tri-valley.de.
Contact: CONTACT: F. LYNN BLYSTONE PRESIDENT & CEO TRI-VALLEY CORPORATION 1-800-579-9314
By: megawatt 13 May 2006, 01:12 PM EDT Msg. 14620 of 14627 Jump to msg. # Here are some conservative thoughts regarding TIV share price valuation:
I am getting the valuation, based solely on Pleasant Valley and Temblor to be at least $15/share, especially as the production is schedulled to increase significantly from those fields, beginning with Temblor Valley:
“According to Calgary's FirstEnergy Capital Corp., Shell Canada is offering the highest price yet for oil sands production, agreeing to pay more than $171,000 per barrel of daily production and more than $11 per barrel of estimated reserves.”
“In a major step forward in its 2005 business plan, Tri-Valley Corporation (AMEX TIV) has successfully closed on the acquisition of Pleasant Valley Energy Corporation whose sole assets are California oil and gas leases which have been independently estimated to contain 24 million barrels of proven, undeveloped recoverable oil using a 26% recovery factor of the oil in place in just the shallowest of several zones using then conventional recovery methods.”
Pleasant Valley has a resource similar to oil sands in Canada such as in the recent purchase by Shell Canada of BlackRock the following estimates are provided for your consideration: (Please note that I have not factored in any multiples to the actual valuation.)
93,000,000 bbl x $11/bbl x .25 (tiv’s proportion of Opus) = $256,000,000
$256,000,000/22,300,000 shares = $11.5/share
TIV current share price = Less than $6.00
Then, there is the Temblor. The March 17, 2006 press release,
suggests API 26 to 28 gravity oil is probable. This is medium gravity oil, which is more easily recovered and probably commands a higher price. There is already some production from Temblor and more production appears eminent. The Company estimates the potential recovery from an average 200 feet of pay within its lease boundaries could be in the range of 30 million barrels or more for Tri-Valley and its partners using only 500 barrels per acre foot, a common and conservative formula for the area.
30,000,000 bbl x $11/bbl x .25 (tiv’s proportion of Opus) = $82,500,000
$82,500,000/22,300,000 shares = $3.7/share
$3.7/share does not consider the positive net differential between oil sands (heavy oil) and Temblor medium gravity oil.
$3.7/share + $11.5/share = $15.2/share
While $15.2 per share is prior to higher production levels, it does not factor in the current Rio Vista or Dutch Slough Production, Moffat natural gas reserves and whatever additional lighter (higher API gravity) zones that might be found in the Temblor, Pleasant Valley and Moffat properties, nor does it include any value for Tri-Valley's Chowchilla, Ekho, Sunrise, and Midland Trail potential.
TIV could easily double or more from where it is very quickly. I brought in real buyers Thursday and Friday and tripled the volume. That was just tier one. Bigger guns come in Monday. Then even bigger guns are following them.
The pre-existing TIV shareholder base is sitting up at attention as they've been waiting for this for some time.
The float on TIV is not just super low, TIV's FLOAT IS IN THE NEGATIVE to the tune of 3M shares due to:
1. Shorts on record for 15-20% bet against the OS with under 4M short positions out.
2. Heavy naked shorting by shorts to maximize the payoff on their legit short bets. Go read that Yahoo board and you'll know it is true. These shorts sold naked shorts into heavy accumulation last week to push the buying pressure back. I estimate the naked short position has now gone over 1M shares as well. They were already weakening in their resolve to stuff the onslaught by the end of the day Friday.
3. The dedication of insiders and real investors holding their shares tight means even without a short position of roughly 5M (legit shorts + naked shorts) against a 23M OS the effective float would still be very tight. TIV management is quite sure the majority shareholder is static leaving only 1-2M in effective trading float. Even 2M real float means there is debit of 3M in the float until the shorts cover.
You got it. TIV has a float debit of 3M shares.
The company is super undervalued due to a longer term short attack pushing the stock down.
The company is on the verge of major revenue increases now with confirmed activity with their own drilling rigs (they own them now and they are hard to obtain) in fields with proven ready to flow reserves right next door plus an existing pipeline and infrastructure which will bring the oil to market immediately.
TIV is going profitable this year and has at least 100M barrels under their feet. They are a domestic producer at a time when it matters.
TIV stock is bottomed out. Rebound players are climbing on board too.
TIV shorts are really getting angry. Good sign.
BIG SHORT SQUEEZE COMING. Watch TIV double soon.
Then watch TIV climb much higher into the Fall as revenues ramp and they are doing thousands of barrels a day. Then it climbs to tens of thousands the next year. Independent analysts inside the big brokerage behemoths put TIV's reserve values at $100 a share.
TIV's new production flow hitting the books this Summer will trigger their ability to state book value for each barrel coming out of the ground. This SEC obstacle will be progressively overcome as production ramps and as revenues increase so will TIV's intrinsic asset value being able to be added to shareholder equity.
TIV can be a $40+ stock in 2006 and many longs and savvy buyers now getting on board know it. First comes the short squeeze to get the monkey off of the stock's back, then comes longer term valuation gains.
TIV SHORT SQUEEZE coming to a theater near you. Don't miss it.
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posted
I forgot to add. There were two big block after hours trades on Thursday(128,100 at $5.93) and Friday(119,900 at $5.88). Average daily volume for TIV is only 70,000. Volume on Thursday was 216,000 and on Friday 208,000 shares were traded. Plus 200,000 shares were bought by TIV insiders on 5/10/06. There is definately something up with this stock with the increased volume we have seen in the past few days.
posted
$12-$15 IMO by the end of June. When they PR their increase in oil production, I could see this hitting $20-30. Some say much higher than that but, im just being conservative Just my opinion but, I can pretty much guarantee this this has already seen its low. Not much risk here but, the reward can be great if you hold. Around $6 a share, this is a bargain IMO.
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By: i_am_eye_n_eye 15 May 2006, 09:52 AM EDT Msg. 14636 of 14636 Jump to msg. #
TIV Properties & Overall Status ------------------------------------- OVERALL STATUS
Tri-Valley is entering a new stage of profitability as a commodities producer with Temblor Valley drilling/production & Cinder & Basalt production under way.
Tri-Valley has a superb inventory of under-exploited properties. With the partnership of OPUS, TIV has the organization and equipment to independently pursue these opportunities. The partnership with OPUS is a good thing as it has an obligatory charter as a joint venture to seek maximum gain for its joint partnership shareholders.
Heavy equipment investment in advance of revenue generation has preceded this juncture and now the turnaround from development stages to status of oil and commodities producer is well under way. ------------------------------------- Temblor Valley
The Temblor fields contain three primary zones:
1. Etchegoin Section - about 700 feet - under way NOW and first significant producing zone coming online. 20-gravity grade oil. 2. Diatomite - from 700 to 4,000 feet. - 28-gravity is very high quality and will command top dollar on the spot market. This zone is very successful on properties immediately abutting TIV lands. 3. Tulare Sands - about 500 feet
Immediately next door is Exxon producing 4,000 BPD in two locations abutting TIV Temblor land on two sides. This places Tri-Valley lease directly in the middle of a significant oil field. Exxon's has produced here since 1982. They run 1200 wells, have produced 42 million bbls of oil and are drilling another 100 this year. As the Temblor Valley is virgin ground without this productive territory initial production flow should be steady and strong. Exxon has 480 acres while Temblor is 850 acres.
I estimate Temblor operational costs at around $15 per barrel. With $70 on the market now, that is currently a $55 differential. At $85, the net is around $70 per barrel and I think that is coming as production ramps, but it does not matter as world oil prices will remain justify production no matter what. If oil goes higher, TIV's profit margins do increase.
Currently TIV is already producing 100 initial barrels per day and drilling as we speak. 1,000-1,500 BPD is projected by year end from the single Etchegoin zone. This zone can become a several thousand barrels a day zone like Exxon's neighboring fields. With the addition of the Diatomite zone in particular the yields can go higher and the increased quality of oil extracted from the Diatomite would be more lucrative per barrel. -------------------------------------- Sunrise Natural Gas Project
Gas field north of Bakersfield. This is a HUGE discovery and one of the biggest untapped natural gas reserves now known to exist in the continental U.S. It is quite shallow and very dense. This pressurization will require further treatment for the delivery solution. This deposit is so big and robust that this is a high priority for TIV. I expect this could be one of the next strong moves TIV makes as production ramps at other locations. ------------------------------------- Moffat Ranch East
Property over 2,000 hectares with natural gas with neighboring properties in Ngas production. Estimated future production value to TIV is $20-30M million. ------------------------------------- Great Valley Ranch Complex
Over 12,000 hectares owned or leased north and south of Moffat Ranch East, an area estimated to hold 11 billion cubic meters of natural gas. TIV can begin drilling here as early as the fourth quarter 2006. -------------------------------------- Pleasant Valley
i.e. Vaca Sand Project - over 200 hectares. There is a thick lower zone containing a large amount of oil. The upper Vaca Tar Sand body has over 20M+ barrels if figuring an oil recovery rate of about 25% place using conventional vertical well drilling and intermittent steaming. This is not the best way to approach it however as there are now better modern methods. As performed in the Athabasca Tar Sands Region, 60 to 90% is now possible. TIV will drill twin over and under horizontal bores and continuous steaming and perhaps vapor assisted production (which represents the higher 90% range). Less horizontal wells are required which significantly reduces development costs. TIV is actively adding additional leases both for Opus and in TIV name only to prepare for very strong opportunity. Pleasant Valley's expected returns are expected to be among the highest of TIV related properties. ------------------------------------- Ekho Deep Discovery
West of Bakersfield, TIV has found enormous deposits of extra high grade oil and gas in 4 formations. The density will require additional treatment to stimulate production flow. Estimates of 1M barrels per hectare with thousands of hectares under control. This will be exploited as company resources expand from current activities. ------------------------------------- Gold & Minerals
Alaska: Over 150 square accessible kilometers where TIV has discovered gold indications in 60 locations thus far indicating potentially huge underlying gold reserve.
Minerals: TIV operates an industrial minerals joint venture supplying the California manufacturing and construction market with calcium carbonate, cinder and basalt products. Cinder and basalt production has now commenced. This should add to TIV PROFITS IN 2006.
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Short interest on TIV as of Trade Date 5/10/06:
Month-----ShrsShort---- % Change --------------------------------- May 2006- 3,650,143 ------ +1.83% Apr 2006 - 3,584,379 ----- (-5.41%) Mar 2006 - 3,789,445 ----- (-4.23%) Feb 2006 - 3,956,897 ----- (-3.56%) Jan 2006 - 4,102,837 ------ +3.86% Dec 2005 - 3,950,446 ----- (-1.88%) Nov 2005 - 4,025,937 ------ +5.01% Oct 2005 - 3,833,789 ------ +1.39% Sep 2005 - 3,781,376 ------ +9.56% Aug 2005 - 3,451,421 ----- +24.25% Jul 2005 - 2,777,900 ----- +39.66% Jun 2005 - 1,989,039 ----- +20.65% May 2005 - 1,648,631 ----- +40.68 % Apr 2005 - 1,171,931 ---- +113.52 % Mar 2005 --- 548,854 ----- +86.95% Feb 2005 --- 293,590 ---- +327.46% Jan 2005 ---- 68,682 ----- +96.67% Dec 2004 ---- 34,923 ----- +37.38% Nov 2004 ---- 25,421 ----- +10.40 Oct 2004 ---- 23,027 ---- +408.66 Sep 2004 ----- 4,527 ---- (-59.68) Aug 2004 ---- 11,227 ---- +132.59 Jul 2004 ----- 4,827 ---- (-31.31) Jun 2004 ----- 7,027 ----- +55.22 May 2004 ----- 4,527 ------ NC --- Apr 2004 ----- 4,527 ---- (-94.73) Mar 2004 ---- 85,881 ---- (-13.21) Feb 2004 ---- 98,951 ---- (-00.88) Jan 2004 ---- 99,833 ----- +00.89 Dec 2003 ---- 98,951 ---- (-18.30)
TIV's O/S is only 22 million and the float is under 20 million. TIV has potential here to be one of the biggest short squeezes of the year.
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Wonder about all that buying? Look: by: up_investor Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 05/22/06 02:27 pm Msg: 44172 of 44184
I believe that there may soon begin to be some minor covering as accumulation continues, and that that both parties are being supplied shares by continued short selling.
TIV stock went from $6 to $12 in less than 4 weeks when the price dropped below $6 last October. I believe it can reasonably be expected to repeat that history, then continue soaring up, since TIV production wasn't yet in place, as it is now. Not only is TIV stock as low as last October, they are in a better position for growth now, than then, as can be seen below:
1. TIV now has three proven reserve oil and gas fields, which were still in contention last October 2. There is now oil production, which will grow by the month, as we are now seeing reflected in rigs going out to the reserves, and growing royalty checks to Opus partners. 3. TIV has their own growing fleet of rigs, eliminating dependence on contracted rigs. 4. Increasing Royalty income to Opus members, a partnership with a multi-year proven track record of providing steady financing to Tri-Valley, as needed. 5. Increasing Revenue from Select Resources minerals, i.e., Cinder, Basalt and CaCO3 6. And last, but not least, the number of shares short is still just under 4 million, with short covering in its early phase. And probably around a million shares naked.
Since the SEC recognizes only developed reserves, those metrics will now be met as production continues to increase. Investors are now provided a double dip, with growing production accompanied by corresponding growth in SEC-reportable reserves. So TIV will now be able to show both rapidly increasing revenue and corresponding growth in book value.
Short sellers have mistakenly evaluated this company using traditional fundamentals such as past earnings, when what is important with the proven reserves, company owned rigs and increasing production, is FUTURE earnings and reportable assets.
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