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Author Topic: HOFF NEWS... 26% POP before close on Friday
whiteschmuck
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http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/050916/86216.html


How good is this?


News came out after pop... Did someone know early?

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blue_in_MI
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sorry, but i can't even get past your userID to the point where i am even going to bother to click on this link.

i don't have any idea what HOFF is, but just as a matter of principle i can't justify buying stocks based on "hot tips" made by "whiteschmuck" as a prudent investment course.

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whiteschmuck
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The handle is an old joke blue...

HOFF is Horizon Offshore. The Marine construction company in the gulf of Mexico. Got your attention now?

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whiteschmuck
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You guys think this news is good or bad?
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T e x
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bad

you're asking questions instead of bringing DD

--------------------
Nashoba Holba Chepulechi
Adventures in microcapitalism...

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whiteschmuck
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BuyTex, my apologies... I thought I was bringing good news.
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blue_in_MI
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only skimmed it, but - definitely some red flags with both HOFF and this PR.

they're forecasting a $30-35M loss over the next 6 months, in large part due to "a $(41.0) million non-cash charge to interest expense related to the conversion of its Series B Mandatorily Redeemable Convertible Preferred Stock."

they lost about $80M last year, or - about a buck and a half a share. so - that would be about a .40/sh loss forecast, based at least on shares o/s of 92M.

but actually that is just the share counted from yahoo finance, looks to be quite a bit larger now: 555M, for a market cap of about $300M+. so, adjusting accordingly is required in terms of per-share losses.

of course, there is also the mention that they are looking to increase the A/S to 1.5 billion shares. and they have also deregistered, so actually the share count is hard to verify anyway.

it's of course up to each investor to decide if HOFF is a good buy. who knows, may run as a "momo" play. but - BuyTex is clearly correct that there are a lot of bad points in this PR. to this point, imho in a nutshell they have racked up huge losses, have forecast that they will continue to lose money, and converted their debt into shares, bringing their market cap up to a sizeable quarter-billion dollars as near as i can tell. and of course that may increase with the vote to increase the A/S to 1.5B without them really having to tell anyone, because they're on the pink sheets. a lot of red flags.

to be fair though, this is all based on a quick 5-minute review of HOFF. 5 minutes was enough to convince me that personally i have no interest in buying HOFF, it's not my kind of stock. but - perhaps are other factors i missed in my quick review. in particular, what are their assets and book value? yahoo finance seems to show it as pretty high, but - yahoo finance is often wrong when it comes to the statistics. if you're truly interested in HOFF or own it, you should go to the edgar online site and look up the full filings, and try to determine such things. that would be here:

http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001051431&owner=include

the first thing you'll see at the top is that there are 3 form 4's listed right at the top. the very first one shows that - how nice - the CEO has just been granted 6+M shares of stock at a nifty cost of - $0. i guess for HOFF turning in such a nice profit last year? hmmm....

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051431/000118143105052060/xslF345X02/rrd92174.xml

and wait - can't forget another 6M free shares for the COO on friday:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051431/000118143105052059/xslF345X02/rrd92176.xml

and let's not forget the lawyer: he needs a piece of the share-issuing machine pie: gets a free $3M+ worth of shares also:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051431/000118143105052057/xslF345X02/rrd92177.xml

oh look, and on the very same day - last friday - here's a sec8 for 70M *more* shares:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051431/000095012905009209/h28755sv8.htm

at this rate, won't take long at all to get to that 1.5B shares.

so in summary: i have *NO IDEA* why HOFF would have run up on friday afternoon, friday was a lousy day for them imho. on top of their past big losses, they forecast more losses, and warned of yet more dilution on the horizon, getting a nifty start on it in terms of handing out free shares to management. if you ask me, it *should* be red today, and if you own any - sell it imho. but - that would only be logical, and logic often doesn't apply in the market.

however, personally there's no way i'd touch HOFF, based on all the above and a 10 minute review of them. As you said, "got your attention now"?

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whiteschmuck
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Blue, thanks for the DD and opinion...

I got out this morning... in @ .43, out @ .57

I'm totally hout of HOFF now.

Still though, it barely moved today... strange for the type of news that hit.

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blue_in_MI
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honestly, i think it was a wise move to get out. just my opinion of course, but - some clear red flags. you never know, HOFF could hit .70+, but - even if HOFF didn't tank today, i don't regret giving an opinion that it's a good idea to avoid stocks with red flags like HOFF showed last friday, both in the PR and in their filings.

is pretty interesting, trying to figure out why HOFF only lost a penny today. i think a major factor is - many people simply don't understand how to "read between the lines" of a PR and contemplate on the implications. also, few people bother to check edgar online. also, perhaps the talk of more hurricanes coming that developed today on various boards created potential upward buying pressure for HOFF, to counteract some selling pressure created by those that saw the red flags in the PR also.

amusing and frustrating at the same time - logic often has no place in the market, at least short-term.

long-term though, i'm still of the opinion that if you stay in the OTC and pinkie market long enough, it will pay off to learn the danger signs of companies that balloon their share count to pay off massive past losses and other red flags, and try to avoid them. who knows - HOFF might hit .80. but if you play 100 of these stocks with similar red flags, my opinion is that you'll get burned on 70 for some big losses, that wipes out profit from the 30 you happen to play correctly.

to be fair though, i freely admit that i'm basically the allstocks "pet fuddyduddy", so my viewpoint is perhaps a bit biased. when in doubt, i try to err on the side of preserving capital. it is dang hard to try to overcome a few big losses in the market: if you lose 33% on a stock, you have to make a 50% gain on it or another stock just to get back to even.

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whiteschmuck
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I'm happy with the little gain I made...

I'm in AMNI and VSGN...

Have some capital to play with in the coming days...

Thanks again Blue...

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