I have only been researching this company for a couple of hours, a little break between car show events this weekend.
My preliminary opinion is GPXM should display good increases in share value towards summer's end. Better increases should display early next year, based on a presumption GPXM will be in full mining production then.
Short term immediate share price move, hard to gauge as stated but I think upward .10 per over the next month, maybe two months, based on a premise this stock will be pumped on boards.
I expect to see periods of high volatility.
Comparing to ALMI, molybdenum is harder to extract than is halloysite, but the price per pound for moly-b is much higher. ALMI experienced a much less capital outlay to initiate mining than will GPXM experience; they may need to finance a lot. ALMI enjoys demand in America. Demand for moly-b is greatest in China and lesser in America. ALMI has a lower cost of sales because of purity of mining. GPXM will have higher cost of sales due to greater processing needs.
Based on those simply notions, I would expect GPXM to perform a share price increase about fifty percent of ALMI. However, this is offset by moly-b being very expensive.
ALMI moved from .12 to 1.30 per over a year. GPXM should move from .12 to .70 per over a year.
( A year actually being eighteen months, roughly )
seems likely eventually the price of moly will fall, question is though - how quickly, and how much?
i got into ROK because (a) their deposit was of such a high grade and (b) they were moving *quickly* to try to capitalize on the moly prices and (c) i liked their other projects too. seems at first glance like GPXM has similar thoughts, will look into a little more.
out of curiosity, what made you pick GPXM out of all the moly juniors to predict this jump for?
here is another interesting article on moly juniors, btw - covers quite a few of them
Ok, most important reason I believe share price increases will be partially artificial.
This stock is found on all major boards and it is being pumped, but not as a "pump & dump" scam. Participant sentiment does seem genuine and concensus is this company will exhibit share price increases in the near term.
An important factor is fundamentals show this company is aggressively developing their mines with the greatest potential. Cash flow is into permits, bonding, assessment and equipment. GPXM is serious about their future.
GPXM is only months away from ramping up into full production. They appear to be winnning the moly-b race within the junior leagues.
Their moly-b ore grade is three percent (2.9) which is one of the highest found. Inherently they will realize greater net returns per pound than most other companies.
They have large stockpiles of moly-b piled up and ready to process. Their mine affords both open pit and underground mining. Open pit mining is most affordable. Use of open pit mining will allow them to move moly-b into the markets quickly.
GPXM enjoys a current income from gold and silver which is also being ramped up. They are partially paying their capital expenditure via revenue.
They have good reserves of high percentage gold, silver and moly-b per ton at their mines.
Here are some of notes. They have a very recent financial filing at the SEC Edgar site which all should read VERY CAREFULLY. There are RISKS.
float 133 million
Mineral Ridge Gold Project: Gross Dirt: 2,600,000 tons Recovery Rate: 81% Net Au Recovery: 172,000 oz Average Oz Price: $405/oz Gross Value: $69,660,000 (approximation) Net Value: $10,000,000 (approximation)
"As of December 31, 2004, the Mineral Ridge property has sold 5,779 ounces of gold and 4,012 ounces of silver...for a net value to the Company of $2,132,566."
No data on dirt Ag content but sales suggest percentage content is similar to Au content, with both originating from the same dirt.
High ore content 2.9% per ton - highest Kaiser scale is 2% content.
This is reference to summer of this year, 2005:
"Company's plans to begin excavation work on Ashdown's Sylvia vein deposit by midsummer. The targeted portion of this ore body, averaging 98 pounds of elemental molybdenum (Mo) per ton, is estimated to contain over two million pounds of molybdenum concentrate (MoS2), currently valued at over $65 million."
"We generated revenue of $1,560,419 for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2004, as compared to $98,097 revenue for the fiscal year ended December 31,2003."
Total Assets 5,787,181 Total Liabilities 10,295,119
You can see they are "ramping up" early 2005 (right now)
Some risks factors:
"As of January 3, 2005 Fusion Capital had completed buying all of the common stock available under the common stock purchase agreement. The total number of shares purchased was 25 million and the aggregate purchase amount for all purchases made to this date was $5,459,893.93."
"The report of our independent accountants on our December 31, 2004 financial statements includes an explanatory paragraph indicating that there is doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern due to recurring losses from operations and accumulated deficit and working capital deficit."
that is the highest i've ever seen, no doubt; even higher than roca's 2% -
"With molybdenum-oxide recently trading at over US$35/lb, Roca's consultants are now focusing initial production plans on the highest grade measured resource of 260,000 tonnes grading 1.95% MoS2 (at a 1.00% MoS2 cutoff) within the greater HG Zone (706,000 tonnes averaging 1.07% MoS2), as previously reported in ROK #16-04."
while i dislike debt - i like that they are already producing, too many of these juniors never seem to make it to that stage and are stuck in "exploratory" forever.
i have sure had lousy luck with all metal-mining companies the last year, am hesitant to go near any. NTO and NXG - crushed. EDV.TO i really like, but - crushed to almost half of their NAV, despite big cash, a dividend, and a tiny P/E. all that is gold does not glitter for me, heh! i will look into GPXM some more though, does look interesting.
hope you had fun at the car show! i don't suspect my '89 volvo wagon would have qualified for it, heh. even if i unloaded all of the 80-lb bags of quickrete and timbers from it.
i miss my old buick roadmaster estate wagon, was my favorite car i ever owned. had the 350 V8 corvette engine, one fast boat! but - mainly i liked it because it would fit 4x8 sheets flat in the back and you could still close the tailgate all the way, heh. i am always being made fun of for my junky cars, but - i don't mind - i like the $0/month payments. i divert about 1.5 "car payments" per month into each of my kids college funds, and a full 18% (pre-match) of all my wife and my income to 401k. someday, hopefully my cheapness will pay off, when i can write a check to pay for college while the people with 3 kids who always leased brand new dodge durangos for them and their wife will be scrambling for financial aid and getting into debt. i hate debt: both personally, and in companies i research.
heh, well that one tangented even more than usual... sorry!
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
| IP: Logged |
Blue.....you have just pointed out one of the best investment tricks that is. It ain't what a car looks like or what the neighbors think of it, it's the cost that matters. It doesn't cost any more to keep a 30 year old in repair than it does one of the newer gargantuan (in price, maintanienance, and fuel) SUVs.
All of the cars in my drive are at least 20 years old. Except for the 73 superbeetle that awaits a front oil seal and a rebuilt alternator, all are in dependable running condition. Should I need to suddenly go on a x00 mile trip, with the bug on the fritz, I'd probably drive the 79 GMC 1/2 ton cause it'll fly on those west Texas race tracks and speed is a must when 18 wheelers won't allow you to drop below 85.. And all are paid for. I haven't made a car payment since Early in 69. It's like having a few hundred bucks extra income every month to blow on beer and bar-b-que or tickets to a ball game or some stock (that "is gonna go on a run any day now and make me a billionaire, fo shur, ah primise").. That and never allowing a credit card ballance is the surest and best way to reach security in the modern economy. DON'T PLAY IN THEIR GAME.......IT'S FIXED! (Best way to keep a credit card ballance at zero? Don't use it! Flash cash....really impresses the p;retty waitress.)
Posts: 11304 | From: Fort Worth, Texas | Registered: Mar 2005
| IP: Logged |