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glassman
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Fearless Leader needs to be a little more carefull in his PR's---I am very concerned that he is going to try to equate a vote for Kerry as a weak stance on terrorism--this will confuse our enemies--

I think the surprise election results in Spain are a good indication that people EVERYWHERE are not pleased with the US/BUSH policy in IRAQ--The polls at home don't seem to me to be quite right-the published 5% difference between Bush and Kerry seems a little fishy to me --
in any case, the voters will speak and if the Bush campaign tries to make it seem like we don't care about terrorism by voting against him-- he may in fact be inviting a new wave of attacks---

IRAN gave back the hostages when we elected Reagan--IMMEDIATELY--remember? Carter didn't have a chance.
I don't see Kerry as a weak hand in SECURITY

I am not backing either candidate here --i am just editorialising about what i am seeing on the world news-


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keithsan
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When I spoke with friends in Greece (big anti american sentiment there also, been that way for a while, bully syndrome)They were appalled by the outcome of the election in spain (Greece recently voted in a conservative over the reigning socialist).

They were angry with the vote, feelling that it will set up all of Europe for attacks. Al Queda's web site was stating how they changed the election and what power they had over the weak westerners.

France recieved a threat today, if they go through with the law banning head scarves and religious attire in school they will face random bombings. (we all remember their stance on Iraq).

Its a bad precedent in Spain but there were other issues. Asner perceived as untruthfull for a while.

Bush is Prodding Kerry in this manner because Kerry does double speak, he's saying troops have were underprepared but, he voted no to giving them money for troop spending. I've said all along Kerry will have a tough time shedding this Image. Mass, is a brutally run state, and he's been here a long time!

I have no horse in this race either.

Keith

[This message has been edited by keithsan (edited March 16, 2004).]


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Teufelmann
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Look at it this way.

Kerry has promised to repeal the tax cuts. This will send the ecomony into a tail-spin along with all our investments.

Kerry will also start many new social programs in effort to shore up his base. (i.e. big labor unions) Not a very good way to make the economy grow. It is inflationary because he will want to raise minimum wages. (bad)

Kerry also has a very liberal anti-military voting record and he is already trying to play himself as a world orderist in order to court support from the world by playing the US as a weaker role. This will only invite more terrorist attacks and kill the market.

On the flip side.

President Bush has made a tax cut that has kept the US out of a deeper recession that it already was in. He has also weakened the US dollar in effort to bring in foreign investment.

But, President Bush has also played the US as a Ass Kicker with a "who cares what the world thinks" attitude. That is a bad decision that will come back to hurt the US economy in the long run. He has also burned alot of bridges by not respecting the inputs of Europe (our biggest trading partner)

President Bush has also encouraged a nationism that has created much isolationism in the US and fueled and anti-European feeling. Europe and the US are too closely related by economics to just get in a pissing contest at the expense of all.

I am not rooting either way here. I see this as a choice of 2 wimps running for President. The real question is one of economics......Which one will help?????

I report..........you decide....

:-


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keithsan
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Teuf,

All of your points are great. On Kerry what I find amusing is this supposed love of the unions.
Fact: In Boston all Firefighters, policemen and teachers are without contracts. (more double speak for the union hero).

On Bush, and Europe, he had some of Europe with him some against France, before this issue had stated they did not like a bully in charge and would like to see a "top 3" of countries to run the world. Obviously France feels they are one of the three.
A way to attain this is to not give in to what the U.S. wants. This is a written and spoken of policy by French officials. They don't want to be U.S. lapdogs. I don't blame them, they have no power to speak of except that U.N. Veto.

Teuf this is not a rebuttal to you just an addition. I could analyze this crap all day, I find inner political workings fascinating!

Keith


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Teufelmann
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Keith:

You are absolutely correct in that Kerry's connections with the union are very interesting since they may loose their contract. However, the unions are playing politics in effort to use as politicians as a bargining chip as they have always done since their conception.

As to Bush and Europe, I agree that France thinks itself bigger than they are but in reality Germany is the real powerhouse of Europe.

Had Bush not been so cowboyish with Europe, Gerhard Schroeder would not have had anything to attack and would have lost the election and a much more Business oriented Edmund Stoiber Then Stoiber would be Chancellor of Germany who was much more pro American and much much more pro-business. Not the leftist, Green Party backed Gerhard Schroeder.

Additionally, I think President Bush realized he screwed up and began to mending fenses with Germany. (smart move)

I think Bush needs to patch up the US relations with Europe. He would best be served by using the bombing in Spain as a starting point. He needs to offer intelligence services, money, whatever to show the Europeans the US (particularly Bush) is a good partner to do business with now.

Just my 2 cents...............


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keithsan
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Glassman always gets me started on the politics.

Teuf, Basically I agree, also I wasn't saying the unions weren't powerful.

With Germany, I have no knowledge on their election process etc. You have frustrated my response process because I lack the fundamentals on that one.

Trade in the GREEN

Keith


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Teufelmann
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Keith.

Sorry to go on. I started to ramble. I ust be tired. I have been in numbers, reports, and stock DD for 12 hours now.

Whew. Need a break.


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keithsan
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No apologies,

I had family obligations or I'm sure my last response would have droned on.

Keith


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Purl Gurl
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Avoiding this political debate because I
am voting Linda Lovelace for president,
earlier today a rumor went around all
subways in New York had been shut down.

This rumor is noticable in today's market,
a slight slow down and flattening of trading,
then return to usual after this rumor was
announced as false.

Terrorists are not just killing innocent
people, they are trying to kill our
worldwide economy. Nine-eleven, the
World Trade Center. Our worldwide
economy is the easiest and most
vulnerable target.

This has nothing to do with religion,
geopolitics nor jihad.

This has everything to do with the
minds and egos of a select few madmen.

When you vote, consider a vote for a
party which affords the best chance
at defeating terrorism.


Purl Gurl


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Teufelmann
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i must be getting tired. Voting for Linda Lovelace sounds like a good idea. Although Marilyn Chambers looks like a more flexable candidate on the bed....umm i mean issues.

:-)


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glassman
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I like Lucy Lawless---a good fight always gets the blood flowing for me LOL
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keithsan
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Hey All,

Here's an addition Chief U.N. master will be heading an investigation into food for oil program because of the Billions of Dollars going to France, Sadam, and the old U.N. leaders family (booooootross?), also some guy who ran its bank account.

This will be a major hit on U.N credibility if true. This while they say Bush is the one hurting credibility. Votes for Kerry so far: new guy in spain, Al Jazeera nice portrayal of him on their website, and Chirac.

Bad news for him.

Erin Go Brah!
Drink and eat green baby.

Keith


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glassman
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The fact that France was the "money launderer" for the oil for food program and would likely lose that cash cow if we invaded Iraq was not lost on me at the time -----
France, Germany and Russia refused to back the US in the call for Saddam to DISARM --
At the time I assumed this was because France was raking in huge profits on the UN banking, Germany had built millions, probly billions of dollars worth of infrastructure aimed at developing WMD(gas/bio factories). It seemed quite possible that the Russians had supplied(not as a government,but by way of individuals acting outside the law) smallpox and possibly even light nukes.
The call for smallpox vaccinations just prior to the invasion was not lost on me. There is a paper trail from the Russian bio warfare lab to Baghdad thru at least one prominent scientist.
I assume that congress was granted access to carefully prepared documentation to all of this and decided that we had no choice.

I do not buy the buried deep in the desert story as an explanation for why we have not uncovered the supposed WMD. I think Iraq has been under a microscope since the Gulf War. We probably know more about the surface movements of the Iraqui's over the last ten years than ANY other group of people--including our own.
So I admit I am confused here. All of the peices of the puzzle were carefully placed on the table over the period of a year or more. The question becomes SERIOUS because some of the most influential and intelligent people in our country (and other coumtries) were apparently conned. This may have been one of the biggest hoaxes ever pulled off. Who did it?
Saddam said--I quote very loosely--"I can't disarm. I have no WMD anymore. I won't leave my country just because you tell me to." We Americans enered the Iraqui war believing we were going to stop a BIG WMD buildup----very shortly it became a "humanitarian" mission. That would be laughable if it is possible to laugh about any war being "humanitarian".

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keithsan
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G-man,

I was waiting for you to get involved, you started this one. It's been a long day of drinking beer, some green. By the way, I LOVE BEER.

The Teacher Union in Boston just recieved a contract. This is only important becuase I said they didn't have one earlier, which they didn't. Big threat of Boycott on Dem. Convention pulled that one off.

ON WMD's, I pray we were wrong because if the weapons are not in Iraq they're on the way here.

Keith


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glassman
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I'm still getting caught up from my trip--lot's of things didn't get done here. And sleep was lost--LOL-I'm finding it again.

I am hearing more poorly conceived statements from the White House campaign----
Fearless leader is beginning to sound anything but fearless.
Does anyone remember what daddy Bush's job was prior to being Reagan's VEEP?
He ran the same crew that now seems to be absorbing the blame for the intel errors.
The rhetoric sounds like an INVITATION to the terrorists to give us their best shot. I don't like it.
To bring all of this back to investing----I am concerned that we are going to see a very "interesting" news year. The bomb that went off yesterday did not lead to investor panic---granted it was in IRAQ--not somewhere unexpected. Can we expect investors to remain calm in the face of more incidents like Spain? I hope SO because in the long run the terrorists really are more likely to do the most damage by destroying economic interests--that's why they picked the WTC towers.


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keithsan
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g-man,

panic, that bomb in Iraq didn't even create a blip.

Attacks other than those in the usuall places will produce shock waves.

Keith


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glassman
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I would not want to be the parent of an olympic athlete this year Keith.
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keithsan
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G-man,

Don't start scaring me, you know I summer in Greece this year will not be no different. I just can't run scared. I'll be going to some island events I'm sure.

Keith


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glassman
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Not trying to scare you--terrorism can be thwarted by EVERYONE paying attention to odd details--but i am suggesting that it would be a good idea to take note of these issues when making your investment strategies this year.


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mcgivey
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So, anyone have any ideas what stocks/sectors could go up if Bin Laden or his #2 man get caught by the Pakistanis?

I am a beginner here, so I very well could be very wrong. I see military companies prices going down and oil companies going up (along with most of the market). What does everyone else think?

Other sectors that you see getting a good gain?

McGivey


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glassman
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capture Bin Laden and I will buy AMR agin and several other airline stocks---they have been dropping lately anyway--
Starwood hotels should look betta too---

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mcgivey
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Glassman,

I can see the airline stocks, but why Starwood Hotels?

McGivey


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glassman
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More travelers=more hotel stays
they have overcome a great obstacle to get back to where they are---they should really light up if world travel becomes more desirable

[This message has been edited by glassman (edited March 18, 2004).]


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Purl Gurl
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Mcgivey, my opinion is this capture of the
number two maniac, even the head maniac
himself, would only have a mild effect
on all stocks.

We should be hearing news, right about now.
It is past dawn over there.

A little bit of less tension, a little more
confidence, mild increases in prices across
all the boards.

However, fear will remain widespread. My
guess is it will take at least a decade to
reduce terrorism to less frightening levels.

Plenty of murderous madmen out there
claiming God is on their side.


Purl Gurl


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glassman
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PG you are being way tooo skeptical here-

don't you remember in the wizard of OZ?

Little munchkins dancing in the streets and partying to the tune of Ding Dong the wickid witch is dead?


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keithsan
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I don't recall I great market reaction with the capture of saddam, think #2 or bin himself will give us a green day?
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glassman
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Fundamaentals look pretty strong--across the boards--the jobless recovery is proceeding nicely--most analysts are calling for at least an 11% gain on S&P this year--that's the low end--new jobs are needed to get the big jumps --they may not come cuz we are starting a new kind of growth--

It is sad -the software artist/engineers of the last decade created this wonderful internet communication system and screwed themselves out of a job with it--the jobs they were expecting to do from home are now being done in India----and other places with low cost of living and at least some level of higher education. Meanwhile illegals are still coming here packed like sardines in containers and tractor trailers--maybe PG should post her doublewide homestead pix more prominently.



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glassman
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I have to comment--On the one year anniversary of the start of the Iraq war --Fearless Leader has once again tried to draw an imaginary line between Saddam Hussein and Al Queda---

NEVER EXISTED---not if you believe the intel reports made public by EVERY intel group around the world.

Iraq had been in opposition to ISLAM and the Tallaban due to the fact that Hussein felt intimidated by religious leaders of any kind.


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mcgivey
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PurlGurl,

I have to disagree. I think that if Bin Laden is caught the market will over-react quite a bit (as will the American people). Now, I believe it will only be a 1 - 2 day jump and then retract, but I think a lot can be made during those few hours/days. Then again, if it happens on a weekend, I don't see there being much of a reaction at all on Monday.

I also think that there is a small chance that Bin Laden is actually in the group that is being surrounded and that the Pakistani and Americans know it. I think they may not want to have it leak because if he gets away again (like it is reported that he got away from the French) it will look VERY bad for Fearless Leader.

We will see soon I am sure (and as usual, you will probably be correct in the end).

McGivey


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keithsan
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bin and saddam and all the other scumbags are connected IMO they don't have to like each other to hate the U.S. way to many al queda visitors and terrorist camps with different names in Iraq for me to not see a vague connection in the least.
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glassman
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I have yet to see any data showing terror training camps in Iraq-
keep in mind that we were flying the most advanced surveilance equipment over Iraq 24/7 for the last ten years--
the only overt terrorism support that i have seen from post-gulf war Iraq was Saddam's Bounty offer of 10 or 20 thousand American dollars to families of Palestinian Suicide Bombers--This is not acceptable either--but hardly warrants an 80 billion dollar military offense initiative.
How many people can get up-to date job training on 80 billion dollars?

prior to Iraq invading Kuwait --they were one of our best allies in the middle east---
as the war started there was some discussion as to whether or not Saddam had misinterpreted state department signals that he had a green light to take Kuwait back---Kuwait was a part of the Old Iraq---you have to go back a ways to find that---
also--Kuwait was in fact using an advanced drilling technique to "steal" oil from Iraq---not a guess here------if you did that in Texas--you would be shot---


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glassman
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I guess the logical follow-up to that post is another forgotten issue of recent history--remember Manuel Noriega(SP?)
Rumor has it that he was originally an American puppet--
makes sense since we still owned the canal at that time---

President Noriega was snatched out of his country in a manner similar to, but not nearly as dramatic as Hussein.

Seeing the same patterns here that I am?

I don't wonder why the rest of the world is concerned about our policy of aggression and unilateralism.

Those who fail to study history are DOOMED to repeat the failures.


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keithsan
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Noriega- a lot of tough legal issues as well as military the contras etc the world court had something to say about that one.

Yes we liked when Iraq attacked Iran obviously Iran had taken hostages. It's a tough part of the world to gather allies. He was considered a threat and not just our country thought he had WMD's. When France, Germany etc didn't want war, they never said the intelligence is wrong. Saddam also never came clean when threatened with force.

Here's the good I see out of IRAQ
-Hussein gone, no complaints.
-terrorist training camp in the north is gone hopefully for good.
-Iraq no longer paying and supporting hezbollah gorrillas suicide bombing missions.
-Lybia gave up nuclear program
- North Korea opened up for discussions
- Iran and Syria towing the line with U.S. on their borders.
- Iran letting inspectors in.
- When U.N. says serious consequences they mean it.

Bad no wmd's, dead and wounded soldiers, international political arguments-no worse than the oil for food program scandal which will undermine the U.N. way more than the war did (I think it finally gave U.N. credibility). Tons of money spent.

Keith


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glassman
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Good points-- my intention is not to say that we (or our current government) are evil--it is more about how difficult the issues are to figure out-
my current living situation requires us to use a lot of fuel just for daily living
-i do not drive a gas guzzler but i also do not drive the most fuel efficient vehicle available either---i contribute to the problems on a daily basis myself---

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keithsan
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G-man, didn't think you were nocking the old U.S.

If gas prices don't go down though Bush may loose on that alone.

Keith


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