Looking At The Numbers: Based On History, Current Polling Numbers, Democrats Can Expect Major Election Disaster In 2014
All of the recent polls indicate that Obama is not doing very well with American voters. His leadership is rated as very poor on a wide range of issues from healthcare to the economy and jobs. In fact, his only positive reviews are related to fighting terrorism, believe it or not.
An interesting fact is that after the same number of days in office both Bush and Obama had the same approval rating of 46 percent. However, today we see that Americans are 24 percent more dissatisfied overall with the government. This certainly does not bode well for either Obama or his party. The party of the sitting president has historically suffered large congressional election losses during his sixth year in office. Compared to the losses suffered by the GOP in 2006, this year could see the Democratic party saddled with an epic election disaster.
In November 2006, the Republicans lost 30 seats in the House (losing control), 6 seats in the Senate (again, losing control), 6 governorships, and lost control of 4 additional state legislatures. Mid-term elections tend to become referendums on the popularity of a president. These elections usually reflect opinions over whether or not the country is heading in the right direction, optimism (or unhappiness) with the state of the economy, and the overall performance of the president. This certainly does not bode well for Obama and the Democrats.
Also consider the fact that some of the top, so-called ‘bread and butter’ issues for Democrats seem to be slipping from the public priority list. This includes items such as healthcare, jobs, and the economy (only 15 to 18 percent of the voting public has said one of these should be the top priority for Obama and Congress in 2014). Sure, the media may be quick to blame the Republican members of Congress for instigating gridlock and frustrating Obama over his agenda, yet only 4 percent of people think bi-partisanship or cooperation should be a top priority.
After being in office for six years, the popularity of a sitting president tends to naturally fade. He has, after all, been forced into making a number of decisions that tend to alienate groups of voters. Since 1930, the average loss for the president’s party has been six seats in the Senate and 35 seats in the House. If the GOP were to claim simply the average victory in this situation, that will be enough to re-take control of the Senate (albeit it just barely) and extend their lead in the House to 68 seats.
Those numbers represent just the average. It also assumes an average amount of discontent. However, we clearly have a lot more than average discontent right now. The January 22nd Gallup Poll revealed that an all-time high of 65 percent of Americans are dissatisfied with the US system of government and its effectiveness, as compared with ‘just’ 41 percent during 2006…all the while having the media refer to Bush as a “very unpopular president.”
My, how things turn around. The Democrats should really get ready to experience one of the biggest losses they have ever suffered. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out and what changes the party decides to make internally after getting their hat handed to them.