Canada sells alot of tar-sand oil (50% of it's production) and it would have to shut down production on this at 35-40$ cutting Canadian imports from 20% to 10% of our total imports... cost of production is just under 30$/barrel...
middle-eastern oil is still profitable at 20$...
if we continue to use less? it could go lower than 36, but people just don't do that...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
i understand that several of the mid-east countries have their budget projections based on 80$/per barrel oil.... they'll be next to have to de-leverage if oil stays at 70$ or below... won't break my heart
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
Well this is my prediction....oil will hit $200 per barrel on the next summer run...just watch. If Obama wins it actually will be better for some in the oil business as production wont expand like it should. Demand will be high still, and supply will be low. OPEC is looking to cut ANOTHER million barrels in December.
So....keep cutting production through OPEC. Halt offshore expansion, summer comes, and POW its profit time.
-------------------- It isn't so much that liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so many things that aren't so. Posts: 6949 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
They better get those prices while they can because they have forced us into doing what we should have done many years ago, it was to easy not to when oil was real cheap.
We are headed in the right direction now but it sure was a hard way for us to learn.
I think while were moving along in the right direction time to convert more cars to natural gas and keep the money within the US until we have better ways to run our autos.
Posts: 3875 | From: ca. | Registered: Jul 2005
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posted
AP "Oil company profits rise, but outlook is cautious Tuesday October 28, 5:41 pm ET By John Porretto, AP Business Writer Oil company profits rise on record crude, but outlook cautious given global economic malaise
HOUSTON (AP) -- Record crude prices this summer are translating into huge profits, as BP and Occidental Petroleum showed Tuesday, but some energy companies are bracing for tougher times, keeping a closer tab on cash and cutting spending. ADVERTISEMENT
Oil producers are coming off a quarter during which crude prices reached an all-time high of $147.27. But prices have since tumbled more than 50 percent, and the global economic malaise has raised questions about energy demand at least into 2009.
Despite a 71 percent jump in third-quarter profit, Occidental Petroleum said Tuesday it likely would not increase capital spending next year from its current $4.7 billion level. Refiner Valero Energy Corp., which also reported July-September results Tuesday, said it was scaling back spending by 33 percent this year and cutting its 2009 budget.
"You can expect us to maintain our balanced approach by investing in growth projects, paying off debt, buying back stock and increasing dividends, but clearly we intend to hold much more cash than in the past," said Valero chairman and chief executive Bill Klesse.
ConocoPhillips, the third-largest U.S. oil company, also has said it likely will keep capital spending at $15 billion next year.
It's vital that oil companies spend money on new exploration and production if they want to grow.
"The bigger you are, the less chance you're going to cut your capital spending," said Brian Youngberg, an analyst with financial services firm Edward Jones. "You generally have a stronger balance sheet and you tend to look through the ups and downs of commodity markets."
But demand for fuel is falling away amid a broad economic downturn.
The U.S. Department of Transportation last week reported the largest monthly decline in miles driven since World War II.
In the month after gas prices peaked at $4.11 per gallon, Americans drove 15 billion fewer miles in August 2008 than they did in August 2007 -- the biggest single monthly decline since the data was first collected regularly in 1942.
Youngberg noted some smaller exploration and production companies are eliminating or delaying projects because they rely on credit markets for funding. That credit isn't available right now, he said.
That's not likely a worry for oil giant BP PLC, Europe's second-biggest oil producer behind Royal Dutch Shell PLC, which said Tuesday its third-quarter earnings rose to $8.05 billion from $4.41 billion a year earlier.
Revenue jumped 45 percent to $103.2 billion from $71.3 billion the previous year.
"The high oil price of the third quarter obviously helped our absolute result," said chief executive Tony Hayward.
Hayward said he was confident the company would continue to do well even though oil prices could dip further.
"I believe BP is well-positioned to cope with such volatility," Hayward said, noting the company had not committed as much money as its rivals to some higher-cost means of producing oil, such as mining tar sands.
"We think the current turmoil may in fact create opportunities for us," he added.
BP's U.S. shares rose $6.37, or 15.9 percent, to close at $46.52.
Los Angeles-based Occidental Petroleum said net income for the three months ended Sept. 30 rose to $2.27 billion, or $2.78 a share, versus $1.32 billion, or $1.58 per share, during the same period a year earlier.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had been expecting earnings, on average, of $2.71 per share.
Revenue for the quarter rose to $7.06 billion from $4.84 billion in the year-earlier period.
Occidental said earnings from its oil and gas segment were $3.61 billion in the most-recent quarter, compared with $1.95 billion a year ago. Markedly higher commodity prices were partially offset by higher operating expenses.
Occidental shares rose $7.62, or 18.1 percent, to $49.70.
San Antonio-based Valero, the nation's largest independent oil refiner, said its third-quarter profit fell 9 percent from a year ago, but results were better than Wall Street expected.
Valero said net income was $1.15 billion, or 2.18 a share, compared with $1.27 billion, or 2.09 a share, a year ago. Valero had fewer outstanding shares in the most-recent quarter.
Excluding a gain from the July sale of a Louisiana refinery, income from continuing operations was $982 million, or $1.86 a share. Third-quarter revenue grew nearly 52 percent to $35.9 billion.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected earnings on average of $1.54 per share on revenue of $35.79 billion.
Margins -- the difference between the cost of crude and other feedstocks and what the company makes on refined products -- were extremely volatile in the quarter.
Gasoline margins were low in July, when crude prices hit record highs, but began to improve in August as oil prices began their downward spiral. Margins for distillate products, such as diesel and jet fuels, were robust throughout the quarter, Valero said.
Given the current economic downturn, Valero said it now expects capital spending to be around $3 billion this year, well below the $4.5 billion it had initially planned. For 2009, it expects capital spending to be about $3.5 billion, down $500 million from its previous guidance.
In a call with investors, company officials said the refiner planned to scrap plans for a new coker at its refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, and delay improvement projects at other sites.
"What we've got is a combination of a couple of deletions from our capital budget," said Rich Marcogliese, Valero's chief operating officer. "But primarily it represents a number of deferrals on discretionary investments."
Valero shares rose $1.70, or 11.3 percent, to $16.81.
Earnings season is in full swing for energy companies. Also reporting this week are Exxon Mobil on Thursday and Chevron Corp. on Friday."
Posts: 3875 | From: ca. | Registered: Jul 2005
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Why don't we have under construction a network of "super-refineries"? By that I intend a modular-based, hyper-ambitious, uber-safe design that "predicts" whatever's on the drawing board.
In other words, compare it to computer systems design: CAT-wire/ethernet/wifi, etc.
Build with "extra pipes" layed in, build in the recognition that we'll need to reconfigure: petroleum, hydrogen, new alloys; solar, fuel cell, wind; natural gas, methane, nano...whatever.
In other words...be sophisticated enough to accept that we don't know, instead of falling prey to the same old design error, namely: THIS will be state of the art...
quote:Originally posted by CashCowMoo: Well this is my prediction....oil will hit $200 per barrel on the next summer run...just watch. If Obama wins it actually will be better for some in the oil business as production wont expand like it should. Demand will be high still, and supply will be low. OPEC is looking to cut ANOTHER million barrels in December.
So....keep cutting production through OPEC. Halt offshore expansion, summer comes, and POW its profit time.
Oh but think of the benefits we'll get. Oil companies making windfall profits.... can you say stimulas check.
-------------------- Let's Go METS!!! Posts: 3317 | From: CT | Registered: Dec 2006
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quote:Originally posted by CashCowMoo: Well this is my prediction....oil will hit $200 per barrel on the next summer run...just watch. If Obama wins it actually will be better for some in the oil business as production wont expand like it should. Demand will be high still, and supply will be low. OPEC is looking to cut ANOTHER million barrels in December.
So....keep cutting production through OPEC. Halt offshore expansion, summer comes, and POW its profit time.
I'm not too sure the speculators will run with it this time around. Some of 'um r gone.
-------------------- Buy Low. Sell High. Posts: 10750 | From: The Land Of The Giants | Registered: Feb 2005
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posted
I predict the price of gasoline with start its rise back up the day after the election, just as it did in 2004.
Posts: 11304 | From: Fort Worth, Texas | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
I read an article a year or two ago. Don't remember where or what it was in it could have even been online. Basically what the person in it was saying was that gas prices would run way up and then settle around $2.50 a gallon. That was where the gas companies wanted them. The gist was people would be so happy to only pay $2.50 a gallon after paying such higher prices. So far that article was right on the money.
Posts: 492 | From: new york | Registered: Jul 2005
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quote:Originally posted by bdgee: I predict the price of gasoline with start its rise back up the day after the election, just as it did in 2004.
So then you believe McCain will win.
I don't think McCain has a chance in Hell.
All it has to do with McCain is that the oil companies owe the republicans big time and they screw the prices around to screw the public's distaste for the price to influence votes for republicans. They did it in 2004and they are doing it now.
Posts: 11304 | From: Fort Worth, Texas | Registered: Mar 2005
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"I predict the price of gasoline with start its rise back up the day after the election, just as it did in 2004".
_________________________________________________
I think they figure voters will change their minds on some of the energy bills if prices keep droping on gas, i expect a price hike after the election also but i hope not.
posted
I dunno guys. Consumption all across the world in resources is down. I think we might go lower in oil and gasoline yet. Have you taken a look at scrap metal prices lately? The bottom has dropped out of the market. Aluminum, Copper, Nickel, Stainless Steel. All down sharply over this last month. Two taconite tailing companies in MN announced yesterday that they will be cutting production in half.
Gas around $2.20 here now by the way.
-------------------- No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues. Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
The next run up will be stronger and faster than before. People will all of a sudden go back to crying foul.
We are very lucky in America to have fuel be the price it is. If we didnt have such high taxes it wouldnt be as bad. Remember, you pay more for a gallon of milk from a nearby dairy farm than you do for a gallon of gas from Saudi Arabia. A gallon of "purified" water in most cases costs more. A gallon of your womans fingernail polish would run an average of $500 per gallon.
When it goes back up dont be surprised!
-------------------- It isn't so much that liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so many things that aren't so. Posts: 6949 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
We are going to do another round of production cuts over 1 million barrels in December. So, mroe cuts, more cuts, more cuts. When the economy makes a turn around? Low levels of crude oil production? The amount of time it will take to chase the demand? Speculators will be DIVING back into this.
Oil will be a cash cow once again down the road.
-------------------- It isn't so much that liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so many things that aren't so. Posts: 6949 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
They will be back. Perhaps using a different approach but they will be back. They wont need much credit once it starts to take off.
-------------------- It isn't so much that liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so many things that aren't so. Posts: 6949 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
These low prices are just a game to make consumers feel like they have a bit of control. You and I both know it is B.S. All this minimum price on gas is, is an effort to restore consumer balance. Look at it, when I ask someone if the negative economy is effecting them, the answer is innevitably "look at the price of gas, the economy hurts." Apparently the price of gas is how people judge the balance in the economy?? By people, I mean average folks. I am surely not talking about the higher than average IQ's that are around here. Surely WE are not as foolish to fall for their litle game and start feeling fuzzy warmmy just because of the current gas prices.
-------------------- If ignorance is bliss, why aren't more people happy? Posts: 2647 | From: MN | Registered: Feb 2006
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quote:Originally posted by T e x: Do we still have an energy "Czar"?
Why don't we have under construction a network of "super-refineries"? By that I intend a modular-based, hyper-ambitious, uber-safe design that "predicts" whatever's on the drawing board.
In other words, compare it to computer systems design: CAT-wire/ethernet/wifi, etc.
Build with "extra pipes" layed in, build in the recognition that we'll need to reconfigure: petroleum, hydrogen, new alloys; solar, fuel cell, wind; natural gas, methane, nano...whatever.
In other words...be sophisticated enough to accept that we don't know, instead of falling prey to the same old design error, namely: THIS will be state of the art...
Great post Tex.
Didn't see that the first time around.
Posts: 6410 | Registered: Jul 2006
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