posted
Popular Vote: 54% Obama 43% McCain 3% Other
Electoral College: 194 McCain 344 Obama
Am I an Optimist? We will find out in 11 days 4 hours and 12 minutes. (extra day added to vote and tally)
-------------------- No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues. Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Propertymanager: McCain 277 Osama 261 McCain 49.0% Osama 49.4% Ron Paul 1.0% Other .6%
very good estimate, I will go with that as well.
-------------------- It isn't so much that liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so many things that aren't so. Posts: 6949 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
I really think we are about to see something historic, and it has little to do with race or gender. It has everything to do with a discontented public shouting out their disapproval.
-------------------- No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues. Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005
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In my scoring I gave both Florida and Ohio to McCain and both are very much up for grabs. If Obama wins either one of those I got Obama winning.
I also gave NM to Obama and CO to McCain. These states are also toss ups at this point.
My gut tells me Obama will win this thing but I'm hoping that is wrong. Doesn't matter though since we're screwed regardless.
Posts: 361 | From: CT | Registered: Feb 2007
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quote:Originally posted by urnso77: Electoral Votes:
McCain 282
Obama 256
In my scoring I gave both Florida and Ohio to McCain and both are very much up for grabs. If Obama wins either one of those I got Obama winning.
I also gave NM to Obama and CO to McCain. These states are also toss ups at this point.
My gut tells me Obama will win this thing but I'm hoping that is wrong. Doesn't matter though since we're screwed regardless.
I don't think those States are up for grabs. Obama leads by 7% and 9%. I wouldn't call that close or up for grabs in my book. Obama also leads in Colorado. I think we are gonna see a landslide this year. Even GOP analysts are saying as much.
BATTLEGROUND POLL: Obama leading in 2 key states
Barack Obama leads in Florida and Ohio, states Republican John McCain must win to capture the presidency, as voters prefer the Democratic presidential nominee's personal traits and approach on the economy and health care, a poll shows.
Obama, an Illinois senator, tops Arizona Sen. McCain by 50%-43% among likely voters in Florida, a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows. He leads 49%-40% in Ohio. Voters in the two states overwhelmingly rate domestic concerns as more important than national security.
The survey of 809 registered voters in Florida -- including 639 likely voters -- and of 816 registered voters in Ohio -- including 644 likely voters -- was conducted Saturday through Monday. The margin of error in both states is plus or minus 3 percentage points among registered voters, and plus or minus 4 points among likely voters.
-------------------- It is impossible to make anything foolproof because fools are so ingenious. Posts: 3311 | From: St. Louis | Registered: Feb 2005
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posted
Btw, here's a little info on that "close" Colorado race.
Poll: Obama doubles lead in Colorado, gains in electoral map CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. Poll released on Wednesday More battleground states are going Obama's way, poll shows CNN: Colorado now leans Obama, Indiana a toss-up state Obama now has 286 electoral votes, McCain with 163, CNN map shows
From Paul Steinhauser CNN Deputy Political Director
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Call it the Rocky Mountain road to the White House.
A new state poll suggests that Sen. Barack Obama has doubled his lead over John McCain in Colorado.
In a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Wednesday, 53 percent of likely voters questioned say Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing Sen. John McCain. That 8 point lead for Obama is double the 4-point advantage he held in a similar poll two weeks ago.
"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a 5-point edge among them."
The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN's move of Colorado from a toss-up state to an Obama on CNN's new electoral college map.
CNN is also changing Indiana from leaning McCain to toss-up.
A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a 2-point lead over Obama in a state that hasn't voted Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys. Watch more on how the candidates are polling across the country »
With the switch of Colorado (9 electoral votes) and Indiana (11 electoral votes), CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency.
The estimated 286 electoral votes for Obama is a jump from 274 in CNN's most recent electoral college map.
Washington state is also being moved from leaning Obama to safe for Obama, but that move doesn't change the electoral count.
The CNN Electoral College map is an estimate of what could occur if the election were held today. State polls, voting trends, campaign visits and advertising, are among the factors used in deciding the electoral college map.
Colorado is one of three western states that voted for George W. Bush four years ago. The others are Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats have been making major gains across the west at the state level the past two election cycles and the party held its nominating convention in Denver, Colorado, this summer, as part of a strategy to win the West in the race for the White House.
CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider said Obama's widening lead in Colorado is being "propelled by an amazing 15-point Democratic lead in Colorado's fast-growing suburbs. The nation's economy has faltered, and so has Republican support, for nearly 30 years the cornerstone of the Reagan coalition."
The poll also suggests Obama is holding onto a strong lead in Virginia, with 53 percent of those questioned backing Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. That 9-point lead is down from a 10-point lead Obama held in our last poll conducted in Virginia last week. No Democrat has won Virginia in a presidential contest since Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964.
Both McCain and Obama, campaigning in Florida Wednesday, are fighting hard to win the state's 27 electoral votes. The poll indicates Obama holds a small 4-point edge, 51 percent to 47 percent. Bush carried Florida by 5 points as he won re-election as president in 2004.
Bush also won Georgia by 17 points over Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, in that election. But the poll suggests McCain holds a much smaller lead over Obama this time around. Fifty-two percent of likely Georgia voters are backing McCain, with 47 percent supporting Obama. That 5-point lead for McCain is down from an 8-point lead McCain held in our last poll, conducted two weeks ago.
The poll indicates another state Bush carried in 2004, Missouri, is basically a dead heat. McCain holds a 2-point lead in the poll, 50 percent to 48 percent, well within in the survey's sampling error of 3.5 percentage points.
The poll was also expanded to include the major third party candidates, Independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. None of them are polling over 4 percent in any of the states CNN polled and none of them seem to be a factor in the outcome of the results in those five states other than Missouri, where Nader's 4 percent showing could have an impact.
But will he hurt either McCain or Obama?
"In most of the states we have polled in, the margin between Obama and McCain is the same in the two-way match-up as it is when we include the minor-party candidates," Holland said. "That indicates that Barr, Nader and McKinney together may be drawing equally from both the Democratic and Republican candidates."
The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted Thursday through Tuesday, with 774 likely voters in Colorado, 747 likely voters in Florida, 690 likely voters in Georgia, 825 likely voter in Missouri, and 721 likely voters in Virginia questioned by telephone.
CNN's Ed Hornick and Keating Holland contributed to this report.
-------------------- It is impossible to make anything foolproof because fools are so ingenious. Posts: 3311 | From: St. Louis | Registered: Feb 2005
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posted
Let me explain my methodology then. I think the polls are skewed so I'm using the URN 6 percent model. Any state race that says obama is winning but by 6 points or less, I've giving it to McCain. I based those projections on the Rasmussen polls in particular when I did my calculations.
This election is going to be closer than you think. Obama may win this thing but it won't be a landslide. No way.
If I'm completely wrong and this thing is a landslide then I invite you to mock me and laugh at me late next week when we get the final results. But you'll probably just mock and laugh at me now. Never stopped bdgee and it shouldn't stop you neither.
Kudos goes out to cashcowmoo, propertymanager, lockman, and retiredat40 for making me smile.
quote:Originally posted by urnso77: Let me explain my methodology then. I think the polls are skewed so I'm using the URN 6 percent model. Any state race that says obama is winning but by 6 points or less, I've giving it to McCain. I based those projections on the Rasmussen polls in particular when I did my calculations.
This election is going to be closer than you think. Obama may win this thing but it won't be a landslide. No way.
If I'm completely wrong and this thing is a landslide then I invite you to mock me and laugh at me late next week when we get the final results. But you'll probably just mock and laugh at me now. Never stopped bdgee and it shouldn't stop you neither.
Kudos goes out to cashcowmoo, propertymanager, lockman, and retiredat40 for making me smile.
Urn
I wouldn't mock you at all. You simply stated your opinion. My differs, thats all. We shall know for sure in 5 days. Have a good one Urnso.
-------------------- It is impossible to make anything foolproof because fools are so ingenious. Posts: 3311 | From: St. Louis | Registered: Feb 2005
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however? it won't surprise me to see the landlside either.
why?
because i believe there are alot of voters who won't admit to voting for a person of color that actually will.
and i say that because in spite of all of this socialism talk?
what i see is people really wondering where all the money went.
i've followed this campaign closely enough to recall that despite Obama's lack of saying anything substantive? he's been consistent.
McCain was my choice over Bush. I don't want to see the Dems (or any one party) in control of everything. But it is really hard to find a reason to vote FOR McCain. lesser of two evils? we've been saying that for years now...
the good news is that if Obama gets up there and doesn't actually work for the middle class like he says? the Dems will lose big in the next election and in '12
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
very good points made there glass. Obama has definately been the more consistant candidate. Maybe he took notes from 4 years ago when Kerry was flip flopping all over the place and it hurt him. 04 was almost like a never ending saturday night live skit to me. Every other day we had Kerry doing something funny (falling while skiing, dressing up in NASA space costumes, water skiing, etc) Also he was so easy to make fun of too. Obama has had a great campaign and never really put his foot in his mouth. He's been playing it very cautious which is what i would do if I was up in the polls. anyway i digress...
McCain and Palin contradict each other and while I like Palin a lot, the reality is that she's not the candidate and McCain is. McCain changed views on several issues conveniently when his campaign got going and many true conservatives (like myself) don't really like him too much.
As far as the unchecked power the dems would get, I think this is a HUGE and great opportunity (if obama wins) to really get the liberal agenda advanced and if it works out good for them. I happen to think that it will blow up in their faces but heck here's their chance right?
Posts: 361 | From: CT | Registered: Feb 2007
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posted
"If I'm completely wrong and this thing is a landslide then I invite you to mock me and laugh at me late next week when we get the final results. But you'll probably just mock and laugh at me now. Never stopped bdgee and it shouldn't stop you neither."
Look, dufus, you may not like it when you have to face the fact that you are wrong and you may not like it that I was the one that told you it would be the case, but I told you beforehand, I did not wait 'til after and I did not hang around to mock you afterward.
Your kudos went exactly to other dufuses that are equally into spreading lies and crap and then insulting those that pointed out the truth.
There is no need to mock a looser. It serves no purpose.
It doesn't turn them into anything they aren't already. Those with integrity learn from the mistake and, hopefully, learn not to be deceitful liars. The rest, hoping to avoid the guilt for their errors or misdirect the blame, insult and demean those that told the truth.
Posts: 11304 | From: Fort Worth, Texas | Registered: Mar 2005
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quote:Originally posted by urnso77: very good points made there glass. Obama has definately been the more consistant candidate. Maybe he took notes from 4 years ago when Kerry was flip flopping all over the place and it hurt him. 04 was almost like a never ending saturday night live skit to me. Every other day we had Kerry doing something funny (falling while skiing, dressing up in NASA space costumes, water skiing, etc) Also he was so easy to make fun of too. Obama has had a great campaign and never really put his foot in his mouth. He's been playing it very cautious which is what i would do if I was up in the polls. anyway i digress...
McCain and Palin contradict each other and while I like Palin a lot, the reality is that she's not the candidate and McCain is. McCain changed views on several issues conveniently when his campaign got going and many true conservatives (like myself) don't really like him too much.
As far as the unchecked power the dems would get, I think this is a HUGE and great opportunity (if obama wins) to really get the liberal agenda advanced and if it works out good for them. I happen to think that it will blow up in their faces but heck here's their chance right?
We have seen the Democratic liberals gain power before, the Clinton years. And the country was prosperous. Now to say Obama will have the same effect is up in the air. I'm actually interested to see if he keeps his word on helping the middle class. Waiting for the proof in the pudding as they say.
-------------------- It is impossible to make anything foolproof because fools are so ingenious. Posts: 3311 | From: St. Louis | Registered: Feb 2005
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quote:Originally posted by urnso77: cmon man where's the love? :u:
You need to carefully, seriously and attentively speak that slowly as you look directly into a mirror held just in front of your face and perpendicular to your line of sight.
Posts: 11304 | From: Fort Worth, Texas | Registered: Mar 2005
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quote:Originally posted by urnso77: just chill out and have fun. you'll live longer.
I didn't mock you and it is you that needs to "chill out".
Again:
"There is no need to mock a looser. It serves no purpose.
It doesn't turn them into anything they aren't already. Those with integrity learn from the mistake and, hopefully, learn not to be deceitful liars. The rest, hoping to avoid the guilt for their errors or misdirect the blame, insult and demean those that told the truth."
Posts: 11304 | From: Fort Worth, Texas | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
I predict that Obama will be our next president. I do so based on the evidence, not as a preference or political position.
Politically, I feel that one of the main reasons that Obama will win is that he has demonstrated reasonable judgment throughout the campaign, while his presidential opponent displayed his inability to function at the level of responsibility necessary for the position with an absurdly whimsical and asinine VP pick of a fool, who has nowhere near the experience and integrity essential to ever be a successful president of even a second rate banana republic.
I remain amazed that the republicans could not field a candidate that was superior to McCain. It was only clear during the primaries that no republican candidate had any idea what the people were demanding.
There were a number of democratic candidates that at least had some idea of the mood of the electorate and would have molded into essentially what Obama has become. Somehow, he did it more smoothly.
My preference of them all would have been Richardson, with Biden a close second, all based on their valuable list of experiences and their standing in the world arena.
Hopefully, with God's favor, we can remain a democracy and yield to the mood of the people.
Posts: 11304 | From: Fort Worth, Texas | Registered: Mar 2005
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posted
As is the case with far too many in today's world, too many on this board are afflicted with bumper sticker reasoning. What needs a complete sentence or more to express is beyond them.
Posts: 11304 | From: Fort Worth, Texas | Registered: Mar 2005
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quote:Originally posted by bdgee: I predict that Obama will be our next president. I do so based on the evidence, not as a preference or political position.
Politically, I feel that one of the main reasons that Obama will win is that he has demonstrated reasonable judgment throughout the campaign, while his presidential opponent displayed his inability to function at the level of responsibility necessary for the position with an absurdly whimsical and asinine VP pick of a fool, who has nowhere near the experience and integrity essential to ever be a successful president of even a second rate banana republic.
I remain amazed that the republicans could not field a candidate that was superior to McCain. It was only clear during the primaries that no republican candidate had any idea what the people were demanding.
There were a number of democratic candidates that at least had some idea of the mood of the electorate and would have molded into essentially what Obama has become. Somehow, he did it more smoothly.
My preference of them all would have been Richardson, with Biden a close second, all based on their valuable list of experiences and their standing in the world arena.
Hopefully, with God's favor, we can remain a democracy and yield to the mood of the people.
Sounds like you've made your case, except for the Palin part. She's new to the national stage and was attack immediately. She will become just as slick as the rest given time.
-------------------- Let's Go METS!!! Posts: 3317 | From: CT | Registered: Dec 2006
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