posted
Anyone ever know someone or hear of anyone maybe taking out a 2nd mortgage (or liquidating assets)and betting the whole thing on a single stock? I know someone in Las Vegas did an 'all or nothing' bet (huge sum)a couple years ago--and won. It was the guy's life savings-I think $100,000. Curious if anyone would ever take that great of a chance on a stock.
Machiavelli
posted
ahh no i wouldn't... that would make me a gambler and not a trader... your friend got lucky thats all.. was a stupid move and hopefully he won't do it again... traders try to take the gamble out of it by technical or fundamental analysis...
dough boy
posted
Mach--no no-it was not a friend of mine. It was on CNN a couple years ago and the guy was very lucky. Of course I would never do it or anyone with common sense either--I was wondering if anyone had ever heard of someone doing it with stocks.
beechwood
posted
Is that a trick question? Go ahead and try it and let me know how it goes (honest answer, please)). In actuallity, F/A and T/A mean nothing in pennyland. And to some extent the AMEX and NASDAQ BB, too. The price action of these are manipulated by MM's on the trading floor, hedge fund managers, naked short sellers, and dillution schemes. Much of which is illegal but unenforced by the SEC (many therein are likely in on this scam).
Anyone who has traded for any length of time can see this in the charts. That's not just my own opinion/theory. I've had a few brokers and the chairman of Vector Vest himself echo this sentiment to me personally on the phone. The only board that is virtually free of manipulation is the big board (NYSE) cause that's where the big boys play. Unfortunetly, their stocks start at $50 a share.
The MM's know you watch the charts and they know you're going to place your bets on which ever way the candlesticks fall. With that in mind they adjust their tactics to your own expectations of the charts. I've had better returns betting AGAINST the charts in pennyland. Not always, but most of the time. That said, think how a MM would play it if he were trying to fool you. I think you'll be surprised.
Machiavelli
posted
quote:Originally posted by beechwood: Is that a trick question? Go ahead and try it and let me know how it goes (honest answer, please)). In actuallity, F/A and T/A mean nothing in pennyland. And to some extent the AMEX and NASDAQ BB, too. The price action of these are manipulated by MM's on the trading floor, hedge fund managers, naked short sellers, and dillution schemes. Much of which is illegal but unenforced by the SEC (many therein are likely in on this scam).
Anyone who has traded for any length of time can see this in the charts. That's not just my own opinion/theory. I've had a few brokers and the chairman of Vector Vest himself echo this sentiment to me personally on the phone. The only board that is virtually free of manipulation is the big board (NYSE) cause that's where the big boys play. Unfortunetly, their stocks start at $50 a share.
The MM's know you watch the charts and they know you're going to place your bets on which ever way the candlesticks fall. With that in mind they adjust their tactics to your own expectations of the charts. I've had better returns betting AGAINST the charts in pennyland. Not always, but most of the time. That said, think how a MM would play it if he were trying to fool you. I think you'll be surprised.
I'll try to keep this short since I myself also write long posts.
FA is nothing in pennyland but TA is. Just because it does not work for you doesn't mean it doesn't work for others. Works just fine for me.Is the market manipulated by MM's? yes it is for the most part including the NYSE as well. I guess you didn't read up about the the Specialist scandal on the floor of the NYSE that Elliott Spitzer took up before he became Governor. Mainly it was front running of trades but thats not all they did. So just because the big boys trade the NYSE do not for one second think it's not manipulated. Also the analysts reports from the big brokerages back before Spitzer was attorney General of NY manipulated the prices of stocks in all the big boards including the NYSE.
I really do think you need to study the NYSE a little more and stop listening to brokers because they are nothing but glorified bookies. But anyways back to the NYSE. Prices of stocks on the NYSE do not start at $50 per share. I have no clue where you got that from. The NYSE has penny stocks (not micro stocks but stocks under $5 per share that are usually in danger of being delisted) as well as stocks $5 and up. If you need a example then Fort Motor Company is a good example because it trades on the NYSE and is currently at around the $8 per share range.Far below $50 per share.
Anyways other then that if you study the NYSE some more you will be in for a rude awakening if you think the "big boys" do not manipulate the stock market on tne NYSE.
As for MM's watching the charts and such. Yes that is true and thats why they drive the prices down to a certain level because they know that is where most people's stop/losses are to knock them out before they start to buy it back up again. Same thing with candlesticks. Fibonacci etc.. etc.. In the case of candlesticks the true candlestick technicians know to wait for "confirmation" before entering a trade. For example some people would enter a trade once they see a "Hammer" on a downtrend instead of waiting for the next candle to confirm a reversing trend to the upside. As for stop/losses I learned to put them below the 20 day MA, usually at the 40 day MA (i use 20,40 and 60)because through trial and error i now know that MM's drive the price down to about the 20 MA or just below it before buying it back up. Also another thing that i learned from trial and error that TA works is that RSI 50 is usually (but not always) Resistance or Support depending on which side of RSI 50 a stock is in. If you don't believe me then go look at some charts of stocks and see how many times a stock bounces off the RSI 50 in the last let's say 12 months whenever it gets near the RSI 50 or touches it.
Anyways those were just some points i wanted to say to rebuttal your post. I did it again. Made my post too long.....
beechwood
posted
I still do better betting against the charts when it comes to the pennies, BB, and the AMEX. I've made explosive gains on many plays by simply asking myself what the MM's would do if they were trying to fool me. MM's never made any money by being predictable and following patterns, MA's, etc. Charts will tell you what you think you wanna hear - only to do the opposite much of the time Not always but frequently. While charts can be useful, it's tactics that count. It's like playing poker with an opponent you can't read. You gotta know when to hold 'em, fold 'em, or simply walk away...
T e x
posted
agree with both of you:
charts useful, but ya cain't fight MMs
Munchkin Man
posted
Greetings To All:
The Munchkin Man bet it all once.
The Munchkin Man bet it all on a penny stock.
This landed the Munchkin Man in the Poor House.
The Munchkin Man is still in the Poor House.
It is taking the Munchkin Man a long time to work his way out of the Poor House.
Please listen to the Munchkin Man.
Please don't bet your life savings on one single stock.
Especially not a penny stock.
Otherwise, you are very likely to wind up like the Munchkin Man.
Good luck.
Best Wishes,
Munchkin Man
dough boy
posted
Must be nice here:He made $1.8 billion in 2 days
Amazon.com shares jumped 40% in two days on Wednesday and Thursday. That's great for shareholders, especially founder Jeff Bezos.
What a couple of days for shareholders of Amazon.com (AMZN, news, msgs). And what a couple of days for company founder and CEO Jeff Bezos. It was like the 1990s again.
Amazon shares soared nearly 27% Wednesday, from $44.75 to $56.81, after the company reported that first-quarter profits doubled from a year ago.
The shares jumped an additional 10.5% on Thursday, to $62.78. The total gain for Amazon.com over the two days: 40.3%.
The two days' gains boosted the company's market capitalization -- the value of all the shares trading in the public domain -- from $18.3 billion to $25.7 billion, a gain of about $7.4 billion.
For Bezos, who started Amazon.com in 1994, that meant the value of his 101.3 million shares in the company jumped in value from $4.53 billion to $6.36 billion, a gain of roughly $1.8 billion.
Wednesday's gain was its fourth-largest one-day percentage gain. The two-day percentage gain was the third-largest in the company's history. The larger two-day gains:
* A 43.4% gain between April 9 and April 10, 2001, when the stock closed at $12.01.
* A 42% gain between Nov. 22 and Nov. 23, 1998, when the stock closed at $36.33.
His is a volatile stock Bezos may be the first to say, "So what?" After all, the shares fell 18 cents on Friday, which means he lost roughly $18 million.
His net worth has been all over the place from $10.1 billion in 1999, according to Forbes, to $1.5 billion in 2002. Last year, Forbes said he was worth $4.3 billion.
Amazon's closing price on Nov. 23, 1998, after that 42% gain, was $36.33, adjusted for splits.
The stock peaked a year later -- on Dec. 10, 1999 -- at $106.69. Then, the stock lost 94% of its value over roughly the next 22 months before bottoming at $5.97 on Sept. 28, 2001. Since then, the stock is up 951%.
Over its first seven years as a publicly traded company, Amazon.com lost nearly $3 billion on total revenue of $12.2 billion.
posted
Thanks for the post Machiavelli. Always a good read....
BooDog
posted
what about betting it against everyone else. Buying when Elvis has left the building. price declined due to no news, mm's taking the price down on very low volumes, company is still ticking with potential revs but it seems shareholders don't see the undervalue. cashflow to debt ratio is getting stronger but still a ways to go to be cash over debt positive. kinda like just waiting for the ducks to line themselves up for flight right in the hunters' sight so to speak. I would never bet everything on one stock - especially in this situation. tables can turn and a gazillion other things can go wrong. finding the right set of rules and buy indicators seems to be one hell of a challenge. even from reading the books and paper trading and real trading it seems i may be learning the game for a very long time. keeps it interesting though - why kill the fun all in one shot?
Machiavelli
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quote:Originally posted by ruthie: Thanks for the post Machiavelli. Always a good read....
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