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ECCI. #1 Hurricane Percentage Play
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by utvolsfan13: [QB] Chris is NOT forecast to strengthen as it heads towards the Gulf of Mexico. From NHC "THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT INDICATE RESTRENGTHING BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS PRIOR TO NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. INSTEAD IT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRENDS OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CLOSELY...BUT SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON CHRIS MAINTAINING A CLOSED CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN." He is still experiencing shear and development is being hindered by the upper level lows nearby. If Chris survives to the Gulf of Mexico, he has a chance to regain Tropical Storm strength but he's looking very ragged. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg -Kevin [/QB][/QUOTE]
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