Natural Gas Prices May Leap in Fall By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS September 8, 2005
Filed at 8:09 a.m. ET
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Natural gas prices could increase as much as 71 percent in part of the United States this fall, raising the prospect of higher home heating costs this winter, the Energy Department reports.
The department's statistical agency, the Energy Information Administration, reported Wednesday that price hikes will depend on how quickly oil rigs and Gulf coast refineries damaged by Hurricane Katrina can be repaired.
In its report, the agency said natural gas prices for the Midwest will increase as much as 71 percent, while heating oil prices in the Northeast could rise 31 percent. Electricity prices in the South could jump 17 percent.
But barring an unusually slow pace of repairs, the agency said domestic oil production should return to just under 5.4 million barrels a day in November, the level it was in August before Katrina disrupted most Gulf production and knocked out 10 refineries.
The agency said U.S. refining capacity also should rebound, with an anticipated output of gasoline and other fuels of nearly 16.4 million barrels a day in November, the same as August levels.
Even in a slow recovery scenario, normal operations are expected by December, the agency said.
EIA director Guy Caruso, testifying before a House committee examining the energy effects of Katrina, said the forecast will depend on the timing and pace of repairs to oil platforms and refineries.
''The infrastructure has been coming back more quickly'' than expected, he noted.
Four of the 10 refineries that were shut down are expected to be back at full capacity within the next week; six refineries that had to scale back production were expected to be back at full capacity by Thursday, the department told lawmakers.
Caruso said four refineries in Louisiana that suffered severe damage could be out of commission for several months. But the EIA said all but about 900,000 barrels a day of U.S. refining capacity was expected to be available by the end of this month.
That estimate assumes a flow of oil from the government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the coming weeks to make up for the temporary loss of Gulf production as offshore platforms are repaired.
Facilities in the Gulf region account for 1.5 million barrels a day, or 29 percent of U.S. domestic oil production.
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