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T O P I C     R E V I E W
BooDog  - posted
Don't catch a falling knife.
Over the last couple years Acadia has given me some decent returns on swings. I was watching the support level yesterday @ 1.65 and then the double bottom @ 1.60 and still saw weakness. Closed at 1.58 with a low of 1.55 and I'm still cautious.
The Street put out an article after hours yesterday as well http://www.thestreet.com/story/11490791/1/acadia-pharmaceuticals-inc-stock-downg raded-acad.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO downgrading them from hold to sell (for their shorts to get a boost??).

I am putting them on WATCH for now.
They look to be getting ready for an offering http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1070494/000119312512143885/d324827d424b5. htm and submitted their Confidential treatment order.

They have a few things in the works such as
Pimavanserin as a Co-Therapy for Schizophrenia, Pimavanserin as a Treatment for Alzheimer’s Disease Psychosis and Phase III program in Parkinson’s disease psychosis and a couple others. As Acadia nears 3rd quarter we'll start hearing more aboout how their phase III studies are going leaving some time to do some decent DD.



As of March 1, 2012, 52,903,450 shares of the registrant’s common stock, $0.0001 par value, were outstanding.

10K
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1070494/000119312512098990/d268616d10k.ht m

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ACAD)-NasdaqGM
1.58 Apr 10, 4:00PM EDT
Prev Close: 1.58
Open: N/A
Bid: 1.60 x 100
Ask: 2.10 x 500
1y Target Est: 5.00
Beta: 3.4
Next Earnings Date: N/A
Day's Range: N/A - N/A
52wk Range: 0.90 - 3.30
Volume: N/A
Avg Vol (3m): 571,166
Market Cap: 83.59M
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): -0.44

200DMA 1.42
 
BooDog  - posted
low of 1.50 yesterday. Technically not a bad support level.

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=acad
 
The Bigfoot  - posted
I've watched too many little pharms lose 90% of their value in an afternoon to want to hold near a test results date.

That's a big Beta though. I agree...still too risky to dip now but might show a good side after she solidifies for a while prior to expected trial reports.

I would NOT want to be holding when those reports come out though...just in case.

I think her timing is going to be off for me with my current portfolio expectations but I will put her on a watch list just in case.
 
BooDog  - posted
Yes, the idea is to ride (up we hope) and get out before the results are out, leaving a few freebies in if desired. I'll have to look at the dates again.
Double bottom here @ 1.50 from last week but I've had my eyes on the 200dma @ 1.42 now. Looks like it could set up to bounce off the 1.50 but i think they have a spell of dilution holding it back. I'm getting better with my patience though I tend to miss many because I dont take the risk or i get so sidetracked I simply can't watch.

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/120330/acad8-k.html
 
BooDog  - posted
http://www.biopharmcatalyst.com/fda-calendar/
phase 3 Pimavanserin for parkinson's 12/31/12
 
Frank C  - posted
I have found pharma companies are way risky to trade. I like volatility but more consistent. Do you think it is worth the risk being so unpredictable?

[ April 20, 2012, 06:09: Message edited by: Bob Frey ]
 
BooDog  - posted
quote:
Originally posted by Frank C:
I have found pharma companies are way risky to trade. I like volatility but more consistent. Do you think it is worth the risk being so unpredictable?


Bio's become more volatile as they get closer to some form of results or updates on their products. Depends on your risk tolerance really. And your style of trading. I'm a swing trader, so when the chart says the risk is worth it for MY tolerance I buy. I use this strategy for any stock, not just bio's. When I make a certain % or the chart says time to go i'm out and moving on to the next until it sets up again. Loss or gain. Rinse and repeat. If you've followed this thread from the beginning I did NOT post a buy recommendation - I said WATCH. Eyes are on the 200dma to see if support holds. I am not an investment advisor, people need to do their own research and make their own decisions.
 
BooDog  - posted
nice dip and recovery yesterday for ACAD. Took a small chunk but still cautious.
 



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