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T O P I C     R E V I E W
Laktu  - posted
Now that we have a place for such plays, Tata Motors (TTM) one of India’s largest auto makers. Been in for about 6 weeks, constantly setting new highs with strong uptrend building. Looks to be pulling back a bit, maybe a good entry for a swing play. IMHO, this is one of my long multi baggers, strong fundamentals. Maybe one of the chart gurus could take a look?
 
BuyTex  - posted
looking at it now--nice find. No guru, but I'll post what I think. It sure goes up on relatively little volume, that's pretty obvious.
 
BuyTex  - posted
higher highs and higher lows--in general--dating to Oct 04, but particularly since May 05, when it was trading in the mid 9s. It recently reached it's 52-week high of 14.90--which is also its highest ever. It slid to a new low in Oct 05, but quickly recovered nearly to its previous high, dipped, and has been climbing since.

various monthly charts show it has crossed below support for now, with resistance in the low 14.50s and --.60s, then again in the high --.70s.

Can it break $15 ($14.90, the previous high)? Barring news events, given historical volume, I'd look for the dip to further a bit then retrace and hit a new high (mid 15s?), before a drop to previous highs in 12-13 range, then start climbing again.

Volume:

Today 287200

5-Day 353640

20-Day 354170

50-Day 329488

100-Day 342705

200-Day 277692

Year to Date 383069

What you got for FA? I didn't do even a news search . . .
 
Laktu  - posted
Here's a link to some archived releases

http://www.tatamotors.com/our_world/press_releases.php?year=2005&action=FromArchive


I'm trying to find the PR that lead me to them a couple of months ago, talked about the huge demand for vehicles in India and how Tata is poised to be the main beneficiary of such demand. I'll post it if I can get a hold of it.

I like your chart interp but in MHO I think the next quarterly report will help it break resistance and approach 16. If not, it sure could trickle back down into the 12-13 range befor heading back up.
 
BuyTex  - posted
It seems to run in cycles of 3 mo.s to make an up run, then a month to 6 weeks to start over, following a downturn. It "looks" to me like current resistance-support confirms that, there's much better chartists than I...

look forward to any FA, news etc that you dig up...
 
Laktu  - posted
Set new 52 week high by a few cents today, bumping on 15, not able to break through, yet...

Second article gives good insight on Strength of long term, neutral short.

TATA MOTORS ISSUES STATEMENT ON DECEMBER TRUCK, AUTO SALES


Jan. 4 -- Tata Motors reported a total sale of 35,598 vehicles (including exports) for the month of December '05, a growth of 11.4% over 31,951 vehicles sold in December last year. Cumulative sales for the Company at 3,06,184 nos. are growing by 9.7%

Commercial Vehicles

The Company's sales of commercial vehicles in December '05 in the domestic market were 18,730 nos., an increase of 1.4% over 18,467 vehicles sold in the same period last year. M&HCV sales stood at 11,110 nos, while LCV sales were 7,620 nos.

Cumulative sales of commercial vehicles in the domestic market for the fiscal were 1,43,469 nos. Cumulative sales of commercial vehicles

Passenger Vehicles

The passenger vehicle business reported a total sale of 13,037 vehicles in the domestic market in December '05, an increase of 35.4% over December '04. The Indica sold 6,977 nos, an increase of 40% over December '04. The Indigo family registered sales of 2,753 nos, and increase of 29% over December '04. The Sumo and Safari accounted for sales of 3,307 nos, an increase of 32% over December '04.

The company's retail sales at around 24,000 nos. in December '05 was the highest ever in any month. Its retail promotion scheme of 'Drive Away A Millionaire' on the occasion of the 1-million sales milestone being crossed earlier in October met with a stupendous response across the country.

Cumulative sales of passenger vehicles in the domestic market for the fiscal were 1,27,510 nos., an increase of 2% over the same period last fiscal.

Exports

The Company's sales from exports were 3,831 vehicles in December '05 as compared to 3,857 vehicles in December '04, a decrease of 0.7%. The cumulative sales from exports in the current period at 35,205 nos. have recorded a 82.4% growth over the corresponding figures for the previous period.


In other news...........


India FDI Moves A Long-Term Positive, Short-Term Neutral
24 Jan 05 15:39

By Shumita Sharma
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- India's move to open its doors wider to foreign direct investors is expected to further stimulate a booming economy in the coming years, but gains in the country's already expensive financial markets may be limited in the near term.

On Tuesday, the Cabinet approved a proposal to allow foreign single-brand retailers, such as sportswear maker Reebok International Ltd. (RBK) and cellular phone maker Nokia Corp. (NOK), to directly invest up to 51% in India. So far, global retailers looking to tap into the fattening wallets of India's ballooning middle class could only open franchises or engage in wholesale trading.

Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath also said caps on foreign direct investment for developing airports as well as for mining of diamonds and other precious stones will be abolished from a current limit of 74%.

"This is definitely a fairly strong statement to send, and it's very healthy from a long-term perspective," said Arindam Bhattacharjee, portfolio manager at Emerging Markets Management in Arlington, Virginia.

But Bhattacharjee, whose firm has $1 billion in Indian equities of its total investments of $17 billion, is "cautious" in the short-term, which typically spans 12 months. "Interest rates are picking up and the earnings momentum is slowing somewhat - it's not the most positive environment for equities," he said. "We are unlikely to see the kind of gains we have seen in the past."

Prior to Tuesday's Cabinet decision on FDI, the Bombay Stock Exchange's 30- stock benchmark Sensitive Index, or Sensex, rose 85 points, or 0.9% from Monday's finish, to close at 9549.92. That's a few points shy of the record high of 9,648 points that the Sensex hit just three weeks ago.

Indian shares trading in New York were on the upswing in Tuesday afternoon trade, with the Bank of New York's American Depositary Receipts index for the country gaining 1.8% to 805.49 points. Automobile maker Tata Motors Ltd. (TTM) gained 3.3% at $14.91 and India's largest private sector bank, ICICI Bank Ltd. ( IBN), rose 2.1% to $30.17.

India's equity market has been racing to multiple historic highs over the past year, along with bourses in several other developing countries across the world. Investors - foreign and domestic - have been drawn to the Indian equity market, attracted by the country's strong economic growth, spurred in large part by a consumption boom.

That's what makes Tuesday's Cabinet announcement on liberalizing the retail sector especially important. Although allowing FDI for single-brands is a small step in opening the retail market, it marks a significant move ahead in allowing greater foreign competition in the protected sector, which is dominated by mom- and-pop stores.

According to the global consulting firm McKinsey & Co., India's $250 billion retail business is the world's eighth-largest and will expand more than 7% a year for the next five years. In a recent report, Citigroup said modern, retail stores account for only about 2% of overall retail sales in India, compared with 85% in the U.S.

Multinational chains, such as U.S.-based Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), have been waiting to get a foothold in the country, but have faced political opposition amid fears that India's estimated 12 million mom-and-pop stores may go out of business. In a bid to get into the rapidly expanding retail sector before foreign companies do, one of India's largest conglomerates, Reliance Industries Ltd., this week said it will plow $750 million to build hypermarkets, supermarkets and smaller stores in the coming months.

But for now, market participants aren't forecasting a rush of foreign inflows - direct or portfolio - into India.

"We have to see the follow-through in terms of implementations and providing support for foreigners," said Charles Wang, senior portfolio manager at Acadian Asset Management in Boston, which has $7 billion in emerging market equity investments.

"We have to see whether this is only a one-time event, or whether India will open up other sectors, such as infrastructure, to get more capital," he added.

For now, Wang is underweight on India, saying that the country's rallying stock market is now expensively valued, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 compared with an average of 15 for emerging markets as a whole.

"The fundamentals in India are good, but investors care about valuations and want to see earnings growth. We are value investors, so we want to get in at reasonable prices," he said, adding that the other so-called BRIC countries - Brazil, Russia and China - are more attractive.

Gene Frieda, head of emerging markets research at Royal Bank of Scotland in London, also called the liberalization moves "quite positive" in increasing investment inflows, but said the impact will only be seen "over time."

In the meantime, the rupee is unlikely to push higher, he said, with the market focusing on the country's current account deficit, which has been widening largely due to increasing energy costs. That was underlined overnight when the rupee closed lower in local markets despite a surprise 25-basis-point hike Tuesday in the central bank's key interest rate to 5.50%. In illiquid afternoon New York trading, the dollar was at INR44.19 according to Reuters, little changed from its close in local markets at INR44.26.

The rupee has fallen against the dollar over the last six months, though a robust rally since December means those losses have been very modest. Capital flows into Indian equities have prevented a more pronounced weakness in the rupee, said Frieda. Foreigners invested a record of around $10.4 billion in Indian equities in 2005, up from $8.5 billion in 2004.

India is aiming to attract $6.5 billion in FDI during the current fiscal year, which ends March 31, 2006, compared with $5.3 billion a year ago. India's FDI inflow is only one-tenth of what China receives every year.

-By Shumita Sharma, Dow Jones Newswires; 201 938 5240; shumita.sharma* dowjones.com

(Laurence Norman in New York and P.R. Venkat in New Delhi contributed to this report.)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-24-06 1539ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
 
BuyTex  - posted
my deal? i can read charts a lil bit--but i have no f'n clue re dollar v rupee

i *do* appreciate your posting, though--luv this chart
 
Laktu  - posted
Nothing pumps it like a good 'ol rupee discussion, [Big Grin]

Solid day , up .53 3.53% ended HOD w/ new yr high.
 
Incognito  - posted
Laktu, Wanted to say Thank You for TTM. I got in yesterday. Looks like a Great Long Stock. You looking at any other India Stocks ? Again Thanks..
 
BuyTex  - posted
yup, got its new high, with some headroom left...

really a nice find, Laktu--thanks for posting it
 
BuyTex  - posted
hedzup, if yer playing dips...bollies tightening up
 
Laktu  - posted
Been away today, snow was worth it though. Check this out:

4:41pm 01/27/06

Cummins, Tata Motors to expand j.v. engine ops in India (CMI, TTM) By Carla Mozee
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Cummins Inc. (CMI) said after Friday's closing bell that it and Tata Motors (TTM) have signed an agreement that will allow their Tata Cummins Ltd. joint venture in India to begin manufacturing ISB engines in the near future. The expansion will cost an estimated $60 million, which will be funded by the joint venture's cash flow and debt. Under the agreement, Tata Cummins will increase its total engine production to 100,000 units within two years and 120,000 units thereafter. It currently produces 69,000 Cummins B Series engines a year, said Cummins

Cummins took a large jump today, almost 7%

Don't have any more India plays but a couple other plays started jumping the last few days

BMHC: just upgraded with $100 target price, just like last year, this will make it back up to the high 90's IMHO, suffered from some profit taking at end of year but was an excellent opp. for buy.

NUE: Buddy of mine told me about this last week, been a great play this week, I think I'm out early next week though
 
BuyTex  - posted
Cummins news is big...
 
Laktu  - posted
Another 3% these last two days....this is the low powered, no leg room, ultra compact diesel engine that could!!
 
BuyTex  - posted
laktu, you may have found the energizer bunny...
 
Laktu  - posted
Another gap up with HOD end, 2.55% - 16.51, looking for 17+ this week.

SIFY, another Indian ADR took off today, too bad it was only in my watch list and not the portfolio
 
Laktu  - posted
Went flat towards end of week. Had great news but poorly timed on India's market close. Jumped great today with increased volume, thinking institutions are going to start smelling this one. Currently only about 3-4% inst. ownership.

Here's the news:

BOMBAY, India, Feb 09, 2006 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- India's largest automobile manufacturer, Tata Motors Ltd., said Thursday its net profit in the October-December quarter climbed 45.6 percent, helped largely by income from the sale of equity in one of its subsidiaries.
The company's net profit rose to 4.6 billion rupees ($102 million) in the quarter that ended Dec. 31, up from 3.1 billion rupees in the same period a year ago.
The profit included 1.64 billion rupees ($36 million) the company received from the sale of 20 percent equity in its subsidiary Telcon Ltd. to technology partner Hitachi Construction Machinery Company Ltd.
The company said quarterly sales increased 13 percent to 50.75 billion rupees ($1.13 billion).
The increase in sales was largely attributed to exports of cars and trucks, which increased 35 percent during the period.
"Our international business has done well," said Praveen Kadle, executive director of finance at Tata Motors. "The overall international sales in commercial vehicles and passenger cars has picked up and done quite well.
The results came on a day when the country's stock markets were closed because of the Muslim holiday Muharram.
The figures released Thursday conformed to Indian accounting standards.
The company, which is also listed on the New York Stock Exchange, also provides figures conforming to U.S. standards, which usually differ from the Indian figures. But it was not immediately clear when those figures would be announced.
Tata Motors, set up in 1954, mostly manufactured trucks and buses until 1998, when it entered the passenger car market with a hatchback - the Indica, which now accounts for a fifth of total small car sales in the country.
Copyright 2006 Associated Press, All rights reserved
 
BuyTex  - posted
ya, that's real news, too...not some pumped up mule outta bizwire, etc
 
Laktu  - posted
Good week so far, broke 18 yesterday, EOD 18.24.
Volume has been picking up the last few days too, infact last friday it had heavy premarket activity, in all the months I've been in and watching this stock, I never saw it trade premarket.
 
black3  - posted
What do you all feel is a good entry point?
 
vg  - posted
whenever it dips, its a good company making alot of profit, we all got in early
 
black3  - posted
I'm in now.
 
Laktu  - posted
Good day to add on the dip, if trend continues should see high 18's to 19 next week. Showed up on naked short list today too.
 
Laktu  - posted
Hit 19 this morning!!!!!!!!!!!! Gaped up to 19.01 to open, hell of a thing it was!!!!!!!!
 
vg  - posted
I like it alot glad I got in
 
vg  - posted
Still going up, this thing is awesome
 
black3  - posted
It's probably due for a correction soon.
 
BuyTex  - posted
sure--check out when Laktu brought it to the board...
 
Laktu  - posted
up up and away! Looks like this is getting some good attention from folks, 20.89 last trade.

In related news...how 'bout the India US nuclear deal? Bush sure loves to whore himself, eh.
 
lucid  - posted
done?
 
Laktu  - posted
don't think so, gonna consolidate a little and start back up.
 
lucid  - posted
good call
 
Laktu  - posted
Good day indeed, new 52 week high
 
fourseven  - posted
Reviving an old thread here..

Looks like TTM is just about to form a double-bottom -- this three-month down trend might be coming to a close.
 



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