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NSMG formerly NLST hurricane play NR 1 ( 0.43)
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by utvolsfan13: [QB] [QUOTE]DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060825 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS... 060825 1800 060826 0600 060826 1800 060827 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMD 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 68.9W 16.0N 71.1W 17.2N 73.3W BAMM 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 69.5W 16.0N 71.8W 17.0N 74.2W A98E 14.1N 67.1W 14.8N 69.8W 15.6N 72.2W 16.5N 74.5W LBAR 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 69.5W 16.2N 71.8W 17.2N 74.2W SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS... 060827 1800 060828 1800 060829 1800 060830 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMD 18.3N 75.7W 19.6N 80.7W 20.2N 85.9W 21.2N 90.7W BAMM 18.2N 76.7W 19.9N 81.5W 21.0N 86.1W 22.2N 90.0W A98E 17.7N 77.0W 19.6N 82.4W 21.2N 87.7W 22.6N 92.2W LBAR 18.3N 76.6W 20.9N 81.0W 22.4N 85.2W 24.0N 88.9W SHIP 68KTS 78KTS 81KTS 82KTS DSHP 68KTS 72KTS 74KTS 76KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 67.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 64.4W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 61.6W WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM [/QUOTE]You don't have to know what any of that means.. just the part that says Tropical Storm Ernesto.. We have our fifth named storm come the 5PM advisory. Significant strengthening does not appaear likely until a later period. Ernesto's heaviest convection is currently away from the low level center of circulation. Another LLC will most likely reform under the convection. The ull to the west of Ernesto, which is causing the shear, should move west as Ernesto does. If the LLC reforms under the convection, the forward speed will slow a bit and it may move a bit more north.. The slower Ernesto goes, the better chance he has of developing, because the ull can move west and the shearing environment will lessen. Once it reaches the western Caribbean and GOM, things should really start to heat up. [/QB][/QUOTE]
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