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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Rasica: [QB] The Reality Of This Coming Winter: We are now using virtually 100% of available rigs and STILL losing ground on natural gas. Yet the analyst community on Wall Street has only increased their natural gas price forecasts to $6.80 for 2006. It's astonishing, but it's a fact that Wall Street just does not get the depth of the energy crisis in the United States. WEATHER OR NOT Now add on a few other facts of life that most seem to deny: 1) When Hurricane Ivan came through last year, it was not known for MONTHS that, in fact, the damage to the offshore oil and gas transportation facilities was extensive. I expect the reports on Katrina to be STUNNING, and unfortunately Rita (and the next few hurricanes in the Gulf) will put us farther behind the 8-ball. 2) Natural gas in underground storage is now certain to be 5%-10% TOO LOW as we go into winter. With Gulf gas production shut-in from Katrina and now Rita, we have ZERO chance of having enough natural gas in storage for the predicted colder-than-normal winter ahead. 3) You cannot take the natural gas storage salt domes to ZERO. We have to keep 500 billion feet of gas in the domes to keep them from collapsing. 4) Colorado State meteorology professor William Gray has increased his forecast for named storms to 20 -- including 10 hurricanes, with six of them being major ones. That is TWICE the normal rate, and he has been deadly accurate on his forecasts in past years. 5) Coal reserves at utilities continue to drop as Powder River Basin railroad blues and Mississippi River barge traffic have taken power plants to dangerously low levels of utility steam coal. Katrina has shown us that the emperor has NO CLOTHES as far as the U.S. energy situation is concerned, and we have NO WAY other than a massive recession to solve the problem. It will take an investment of $500 billion at the very least to get the U.S. out of this economy-killing energy disaster. While we shovel $200 billion to help 500,000 families recover along the Gulf Coast, $258 billion into highway pork projects and $200 billion to fight terrorism in Iraq and Afghanistan, we cannot seem to see the urgency to find a down payment on our self-inflicted energy crisis. http://www.changewave.com/BreakingWaves.html?Source=/Archive/2005/9/23-49163.html [/QB][/QUOTE]
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