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[QUOTE]Originally posted by blue_in_MI: [QB] the star-rating thing is hit-or-miss. some of the top posters here like keithsan and Purl when she's around do have great ratings, and one could learn quite a lot from them. but also some other very good posters here have been unfairly downgraded imho. for example, because will sometimes speaks out against what i call "scam stocks", holders of those stocks can get irked at him and downgrade him, even if he's 100% correct in his concerns about said scam stocks. i ignore star ratings, but if you're of a mind to pay attention to them - at least take them with a grain of salt. as for the "luck" thing: it certainly plays an element, but - over long time spans and lots of picks, it gets somewhat factored out imho. if one jumps around randomly and for example bought MLON or CMKX way up near the peaks despite all the warning signs: that's not "bad luck" when they crashed - that's poor DD and bad judgement. on the other hand, one can buy a series of perfectly good stocks, for very valid reasons, and still have them go do down on average; for example if a series of deals fall through or whatever reason. that might be considered at least in part "bad luck", or at least "the odds going against you". i dont' view for example purl and keithsan's succeses in the market as "lucky". i view the market in terms of "trying to set up an array of promising risk/reward curves in your holdings". though a combination of good DD, reasoned decisions, good instincts in particularly in keithsan's case a good "system"; they have on average done quite well. luck may play a part in individual holdings: for example maybe a few stocks did much better than they hoped, maybe a few went south even though all of their reasons for buying were very valid. if you have enough holdings over a long enough period of time, luck tends to average out and - on balance - skill and quality picks takes over the statistics of the equation. really one also has to consider "styles", when trying to decide what input on this board might be helpful. dardadog is the master of the "10-minute hold", keithsan day-to-week holds, purl relatively long holds, etc.. lots of times i'm out of the office for a whole week at a time, so it's harder for me to follow say keith and darda's picks because they require more short-term attention during market hours. [/QB][/QUOTE]
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