I told someone months ago HOGC would go to close to a penny and that is bottom. (btw he bought in at .09 .07 .05 .03...hehehe, he'll never see a profit)) Its on its way there now at .02 fridays close. I'm watching for the .01 to .015 levels. This to me is a bottom with HOGC any news in early 2007 could give her a little run.
Well...im going to keep a close eye on this one....
Seems like full stochastics show a slightly positive divergence over the past month, and its in oversold territory there. Accumulation line ill keep an eye on to see if it trends up, it started to but may level off here, OBV looks horrible, and CMF is improving. Something to keep an eye on.
Posted by paulbest on :
"OVB looks horrible" meaning hardly any(in fact none) upswings in the past few weeks? yes? agree. this baby is headed to my projected low of just over 1 cent. Thtas the stick point the MM's will decide to not take it any further...now we jump in and just sit and wait a few weeks , she'll be trading for over 2 cents with possibilities to 3 cents. BINGO a 100% gain. Provided: A) we get some vol to sell B) the MM's do not manipulate the bid/ask too much Both have to come into our favor before we can make a dime on this play
Posted by stocktrader22 on :
Looks like it has support at .015
Level II's look very thin.
Posted by will on :
A/S : 105,000,000 COMMON 995,302 SHARES AS SERIES A CONVERTIBLE PREFERRED STOCK 3,529,412 SHARES AS "SERIES B CONVERTIBLE PREFERRED STOCK" Heartland has 46,737,013 shares of common stock outstanding as of October 30, 2006
No where could I find the conversion ratio for the preferred shares. It appears they use the preferred for bridge financing.
Seemingly, these preferred shares can't be converted until 3/28/07. Last loan was due 8/30/06, and repaid in full at that time, and a new loan was negotiated 9/6/06. For the short term, I can almost discount this as potential dilution. I wouldn't want to be around in March '07 though.
Current support is .0148, and resistance .0266 HOGC has been under strong MM accuumulation since mid-Sept at .06, with two bounces for 50% to .09 in late Sept. and early Nov. It certainly has been searching for bottom. I elect to wait until I am sure it will hold the .015 / .0148 support, If/when it falls through that, patience will be required to find REAL bottom. I think it holds at the .015 support. It may turn from here. There's a 20% risk factor of missing bottom, or missing the whole bounce completely. In other words you can buy at .018 or so, and not miss the play, but if .015 is true bottom, then you paid a 20% premium to be in.
12/20/06 was a crucial day in terms of volume / price variance.
I like it, just am not sure where bottom really is.
Posted by paulbest on :
Will, nice post though most is over my head. However I came to the same conclusion based on gut feel of the market which obviously is no better than the animal gut readings of the ancients
OK so there will be prefered share redemption in march 07 but what was the pay price for the shares? Why would they sell if the stock is way below their pay price? Just to get out?
Correct, HOGC is not the irresponsible co to dilute.
Excellent point about getting in BEFORE she finds the REAL bottom, but as you say its a guessing game, though my best guess is very close to your DD based estimate of .015. But as you say if you get in at .018 or .019 and she finds a bottom at .015, you paid a 20%+ premium, which obviously is not not the ideal, only if it sits around .014-.018 for several weeks.Then you're screwed. But if she does have a runup just after hitting bottom, then getting in above the bottom price isn;'t so bad. As I think she'll have a run back into the .03's in Feburary. Rumor/news whatever. It just isn't going to stay under .02 for long. we'll see jmho
btw the MM's may have a big spread on this one and so making it difficult for us to get decent profits. also I wouldn't load up too much, as she'll need vol in order to absored your sell offs
just cked average vol 200K to 300K on a penny stock that ain't nothing so this , as you point out is a risky play for real profits.
100K shares is only 2K. so the money flow is average $6K/day Posted by will on :
I would not be too concerend about volume, When they decide to run it, the volume will be there.
Re-reading the 8K, it appears the monies might not be secured by preferred shares. The 9/29/06 loan is for $300K and $6M to repurchase Series B stock.
"On September 29, 2006, Heartland Oil and Gas Corp. completed (i) a bridge financing of an aggregated of $300,000 (the “Bridge Amount”) from SDS Capital Group, Ltd. and Baystar Capital II, L.P. (collectively, the “Payees”) and (ii) the repurchase of all outstanding Series B Preferred Stock with a principal amount of $6,000,000 (the “Series B Amount” and collectively with the Bridge Amount, the “Note Principal Amount”) from the Payees in consideration for convertible senior secured promissory notes (the “Notes”). The Notes mature on the earlier of March 28, 2007 or the date of any subsequent financing in which Heartland issues equity securities or other securities that could result in the issuance of equity securities (the “Maturity Date”), have no interest rate and reflect the full Note Principal Amount."
I fail to understand the filings completely. It appears they are secured with notes using assets for collatoral and/or stock can be issued at maturity. I am just not sure of the details and the impact on HOGC's future share structure.
That being said, I believe it will bounce, long before the bridge financing can truly affect it, and I will be long gone. It has met the treashold for my model, and is a strong candiadte to advance soon. It has the elements I look for, a relatively low O/S, declining price, increased volume, oversold condition, and little or no history of dilution. I have decided on my offer price, if it does not come to me, so be it. My only concern now is predicting bottom correctly. I can and will find another as good or better.
You speak of investing $2K in a penny as a common ocurrance for penny players. I would venture to say only a small percentage of penny players throw $2K in a play. One will never know, because everyone can enjoy the anonymity of the internet, and the privacy of their account.
Posted by stocktrader22 on :
For a penny play I typically throw in between $750-$3,000 depending on how much I believe in it.
Posted by paulbest on :
quote:Originally posted by will: I would not be too concerend about volume, When they decide to run it, the volume will be there.
BOOOMM up 25% The MM's have decided they have wayyy too many shares on hand Don't buy, if we can all hold off she'll fall further dang it I did not want this to move yet. I wanted to get in at .015 looks like i may have to jump in this week.
the co's worth is less than a penny, based on income from the gas of a few pilot wells.
Posted by stocktrader22 on :
been watching
Posted by Investor76 on :
Watch out for PLAYSTAR CORP. ( PLYCF ) A winner
Posted by paulbest on :
quote:Originally posted by Investor76: Watch out for PLAYSTAR CORP. ( PLYCF ) A winner
this is HOGC's topic
Posted by paulbest on :
quote:Originally posted by stocktrader22: been watching
still its only 325K vol which is only $8K it may bounce around abit, if you jump in today at ,025 you may see you paid too much later this week. I could be wrong, its jmho
Posted by stocktrader22 on :
i didnt jump in...lmao...i said im watching.
Posted by paulbest on :
yep i was watching too the MM's decided to make THEIR MOVE oh well can't get all I may go in this week they took her up from .025 to .03 in the last 15 minutes of trading today.
Posted by stocktrader22 on :
.03 was stacked at the ask!
Posted by paulbest on :
quote:Originally posted by stocktrader22: .03 was stacked at the ask!
ahh got ya this is what I was thinking also as i looked at the chart just now, The EOD was all buys , as no doubt the entire day was all buys I guess my .015 projection is shot. .03 is the new bottom. have to go out of town early tomorrow, i'll have to put in a pre order for .032
Posted by stocktrader22 on :
quote:Originally posted by paulbest:
quote:Originally posted by stocktrader22: .03 was stacked at the ask!
ahh got ya this is what I was thinking also as i looked at the chart just now, The EOD was all buys , as no doubt the entire day was all buys I guess my .015 projection is shot. .03 is the new bottom. have to go out of town early tomorrow, i'll have to put in a pre order for .032
Please stop talking like you understand what you are saying. In NO WAY is .03 the new bottom. As a matter of fact .03 is the resistance as there were about 6MM sitting at .03 on the ask and about 1MM at the bid of .025. What I was saying is some buys need to come in to break the .03 wall tomorrow to continue and upward trend.
Posted by tompom on :
quote:Originally posted by stocktrader22:
quote:Originally posted by paulbest:
quote:Originally posted by stocktrader22: .03 was stacked at the ask!
ahh got ya this is what I was thinking also as i looked at the chart just now, The EOD was all buys , as no doubt the entire day was all buys I guess my .015 projection is shot. .03 is the new bottom. have to go out of town early tomorrow, i'll have to put in a pre order for .032
Please stop talking like you understand what you are saying. In NO WAY is .03 the new bottom. As a matter of fact .03 is the resistance as there were about 6MM sitting at .03 on the ask and about 1MM at the bid of .025. What I was saying is some buys need to come in to break the .03 wall tomorrow to continue and upward trend.
LOL
Posted by paulbest on :
unreal this POS goes from 2 cents to 3.5 cents they produce a few hundred $'s /day of gas, it will take one of their $125K wells 20 yrs+++ to pay off yet the stock goes up I'm learning the MM's have more control than I figured. They could care less what Heartland produces, as long as they can dump their shares at a profit. what a game these pennies are
Posted by stocktrader22 on :
quote:Originally posted by paulbest: unreal this POS goes from 2 cents to 3.5 cents they produce a few hundred $'s /day of gas, it will take one of their $125K wells 20 yrs+++ to pay off yet the stock goes up I'm learning the MM's have more control than I figured. They could care less what Heartland produces, as long as they can dump their shares at a profit. what a game these pennies are
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