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Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
American Energy Production, Inc. Announces Increased Oil Production from Investee Production, Resources Inc.

September 20, 2005 09:00:28 (ET)


MINERAL WELLS, Texas, Sep 20, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- American Energy Production Inc. (AMEP, Trade) announced today its wholly owned investee, Production Resources, Inc. posted significant oil production increases after several months of testing various procedures utilizing AMEP HOA 800. PRI discovered a method of well treatment that combines the utilization of heat along with AMEP HOA-800 in a chemical process that has returned positive results. PRI has increased oil production from the Olmos formation on the 12 test wells by as much as 500% for the month of August. Plans are being implemented to expand the testing area to an additional 25 oil wells in the next 45 days. In august PRI produced 987 barrels of oil at gross sales of approximately $55,000.00

Charles Bitters, President of American Energy Production, Inc. stated, "This is the best month for oil production and revenues that PRI has done since AMEP bought the Company. PRI has been working extremely hard on achieving the desired results with AMEP HOA-800 and now believe its time to start expanding this treatment program. There is still room for improvement, but I believe PRI can now benefit because of current record high oil prices and increased production rates from the Olmos heavy oil sand field. This oil field is very difficult to produce because of the tight sand and the compaction of the heavy oil in the sand; still these are very exciting results."

Management cannot discuss the details and/or formulations being used with AMEP HOA- 800, but PRI believes the heat treatment once perfected can possibly be sold to other oil operators. The Company will keep investors informed of the expanded test results.

Update to investors.

http://www.americanenergyproduction.com/projects_1.html

Also on June 28, 2005 AMEP announced that wholly owned investee Bend Arch Petroleum, Inc. is in the process of filing permits to re-enter another well in the Barnett Shale formation located on its 12 well Palo Pinto Project. This well could be our most significant to date and a major milestone for the company due to the 1000 to 1500 horizontal lateral line that will be drilled in the Barnett Shale. With the purchase of a 8,000 foot drilling rig by AMEP Strategic Investments Inc., another investee of American Energy Production Inc., this will be the first well the drilling rig will be moved to. In most scenarios a horizontal well will produce more oil and natural gas than a vertical well. The Company is extremely excited about the potential for this Barnett Shale well. Bend Arch Petroleum is in a great position to benefit from record high prices for oil and natural gas prices because the Company has accumulated over 7,000 acres of leases that have potential Barnett Shale production.
 
Posted by TampaInvester on :
 
Just took in last 20 mins. get in before close..big day coming tomorrow
 
Posted by keithsan on :
 
how many shares ?

a dime?
 
Posted by TampaInvester on :
 
hurricane effect. surge in oil prices


Gulf Oil Refineries, Rigs Hunker Down
Wednesday September 21, 5:23 pm ET
By David Koenig, AP Business Writer
Texas Oil Refineries, Gulf Rigs Hunker Down As Rita Grows More Violent, Takes Aim


Oil companies began closing Texas refineries Wednesday, threatening the supply of gasoline to the nation's pumps as Hurricane Rita grew more violent and took aim at a stretch of Gulf coast that holds one-fourth of the nation's oil-refining capacity.
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Experts say the refineries, nestled in a 300-mile swath from the Louisiana border to Corpus Christi, would recover within a couple days from a glancing blow. But if Rita swamps Houston as Hurricane Katrina did to a three-state area along the Gulf of Mexico last month, they warn, the storm will take more dollars from motorists' wallets and add to the problems of the nation's airlines.

BP PLC began closing its massive Texas City refinery on Wednesday. Marathon Oil Corp. and Shell Oil did the same at their refineries near Houston. Shell's refinery kept running through the last major Texas hurricane, Alicia in 1983.

"It was a split decision between taking a risk and playing that waiting game of seeing where it's going to land, and being sensitive to employees getting home," said David McKinney, a Shell spokesman. "Once we made the decision, everybody felt good."

Meanwhile in the Gulf of Mexico, Rita began to take a toll on oil production, which hadn't yet fully recovered from last month's Hurricane Katrina. Fresh evacuations that began this week in the eastern waters of the Gulf spread farther west, one step ahead of the storm.

Rita threatens to compound the havoc caused by Katrina, which damaged oil platforms and knocked out refineries, four of which in Louisiana remain dark. They had accounted for about 5 percent of U.S. refining capacity and weren't expected to resume operations anytime soon.

Combined, the damage from Katrina and the precautionary evacuations due to Rita have slashed normal Gulf oil production of 1.5 million barrels a day by 73 percent, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said Wednesday.

Since Katrina evacuations began Aug. 26, the storms have cut more than 27 million barrels of oil production, or 5 percent of the Gulf's annual production, the agency said. Natural gas production was 47 percent below normal on Wednesday.

Oil and gasoline prices could spike again if Rita causes additional disruptions in supply, market analysts say.

Rita became a Category 5, 165-mph behemoth Wednesday and was expected to hit the Texas coast this weekend.

"We're closely watching this hurricane, and we realize its full potential," said Neil Geary, a spokesman at the BP refinery, which produces gasoline, jet fuel and other products.

At first, Shell sent nonessential personnel home and kept parts of the refinery running. By afternoon, the decision was made to shutter the entire plant.

Texas refineries are clustered around Houston, Port Arthur and Corpus Christi, "and any one of those being forced to shut down is pretty bad," said Roger Diwan, who studies oil markets for research and consulting firm PFC Energy in Washington.

Diwan said under the best circumstances -- if the hurricane causes no damage to the plants -- it would take four to five days for the refineries to resume operations after a shutdown.

"That will reduce supply at a time when we don't need it," he said.

Oil prices climbed more than $1 a barrel on Wednesday, as traders calculated the possibility that Rita could damage oil-industry facilities on land or in the Gulf of Mexico. Heating oil jumped nearly 3 cents to $2.0387 a gallon, while gasoline surged more than 7 cents to $2.0531 a gallon.

Analyst Tom Kloza of research firm Oil Price Information Service called the reaction hysteria -- unless Rita scores a direct hit on Texas City or the Houston Ship Channel, which is lined with refineries and chemical plants.

Kloza said that unlike the Louisiana refineries that were knocked out by Katrina, the Houston-area plants are well above sea level and have withstood big storms before. The most likely threat, he said, might be power outages that could halt refineries for two to five days.

Some refiners were keeping their plants running until Rita got closer -- it can take 12 to 24 hours or longer to shut down, they said. For example, Exxon Mobil was continuing to operate refineries and chemical plants in Baytown, Beaumont and in Baton Rouge, La.

The Houston area is also home to many chemical plants. Dow Chemical's seaside plant behind a 16-foot levee in Freeport, southwest of Houston, remained operating normally at midday Wednesday, a spokesman said. But Lyondell Chemical Co. began closing two plants, one in a marshy inland area and the other near the Gulf.

With plants scattered along the Texas coast from Houston to Corpus Christi, "No matter where it hit, we were going to have to take some action," said Lyondell spokesman David Harpole.

Out on the Gulf waters, driller Transocean Inc. dragged four moveable rigs in the central Gulf out of the storm's projected path and evacuated about 500 workers from three rigs that are moored to the seabed floor. The Houston company's decision to evacuate was shaped by its experience last month with Katrina.

"Right now, the storm path is south of those (moored) rigs, but that's what happened with Katrina until it made a looping turn and went into the eastern side of New Orleans," said Transocean spokesman Guy Cantwell. "So we're not taking any chances."

BP, which began evacuating workers from platforms off the Alabama coast Sunday, said it was also removing nonessential employees from platforms in the western Gulf, out in front of Rita's path.

Exxon Mobil, Chevron Corp., Shell, a subsidiary of Royal Dutch/Shell Group, El Paso Corp. and others also continued to evacuate employees from many rigs and platforms.

The airline industry is likely to be a loser from Rita. Four of the nation's six oldest carriers are in bankruptcy protection, partly because U.S. carriers will pay $9.2 billion more for fuel this year than last year, according to the Air Transport Association, an airline trade group. Now Rita threatens to send jet fuel prices even higher.

"Even if we can get through this," said the group's chief economist, John Heimlich, referring to Rita, "it comes at a price, which is difficult when you're sitting on the fence of Chapter 11."
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Remember when gas spiked to $3-plus a gallon after Hurricane Katrina? By this time next week, that could seem like the good old days.

Weather and energy experts say that as bad as Hurricane Katrina hit the nation's supply of gasoline, Hurricane Rita could be worse.

Katrina damage was focused on offshore oil platforms and ports. Now the greater risk is to oil-refinery capacity, especially if Rita slams into Houston, Galveston and Port Arthur, Texas.

"We could be looking at gasoline lines and $4 gas, maybe even $5 gas, if this thing does the worst it could do," said energy analyst Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover. "This storm is in the wrong place. And it's absolutely at the wrong time," said Beutel.

Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist at Weather 2000, said Rita now appears most likely to hit between Port Arthur and Corpus Christi, Texas, sometime between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning.

Just about all of Texas's refinery capacity lies in that at-risk zone. (For a look at CNN.com's coverage of Hurricane Rita, click here.)

"There is no lucky 7-10 split scenario to use a bowling analogy," he said. "If you're [a refiner] within 200 miles, you're going to feel the effect."

Compounding Katrina's impact
When Katrina hit, 15 refineries, nearly all in Louisiana and Mississippi, with a combined capacity of about 3.3 million barrels a day were shut down or damaged, according to the Energy Department. That represented almost 20 percent of U.S. refining capacity.

Within a week, almost two-thirds of that damaged capacity had resumed some operations, according to the department. But four refineries with nearly 900,000 barrels a day of capacity are still basically shut down.

If Rita hits both the Houston-Galveston area, as well as the Port Arthur-Beaumont region near the Texas-Louisiana border, that could take out more than 3 million barrels of capacity a day,according to Bob Tippee, editor of the industry trade journal Oil & Gas Journal in Houston.

"Before Katrina, the system was already so tight that the worst-case scenario was for a disruption that took 250,000 barrels of capacity out of the picture. That would have been considered a major jolt," said Tippee.

"We're already in uncharted territory now. We can't project what happens from another shot the size of Katrina or worse."

Part of the problem is that skilled crews needed to make refinery repairs are already busy trying to fix the Katrina damage. That would extend recovery time from Rita.

"[Rita] could have a significant impact on supply and prices -- this really is a national disaster," Valero Energy (Research) CEO Bill Greehey in an interview with Reuters Tuesday evening.
 
Posted by TampaInvester on :
 
kabooommmmmmmmm
 
Posted by portugal1982 on :
 
Does anyone know if Rita will be effecting AMEP?????
 
Posted by BuyTex on :
 
doubtful...pastures could be muddy for a few days...they're west of me
 
Posted by TampaInvester on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by portugal1982:
Does anyone know if Rita will be effecting AMEP?????

Does'nt look like..all it is going to affect is the surge in oil prices

0.053 now
 
Posted by portugal1982 on :
 
It was close to .06 but it looks like it came back down now and its sitting at .05
 
Posted by TampaInvester on :
 
ready to take off again..it should go back to 0.6 in last 45 mins IMO
 
Posted by TampaInvester on :
 
wow moving fast
 
Posted by portugal1982 on :
 
What you do you guys think of this one today?? Up or down?
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
don't fall for this morning shake,told ya it would come and on low volume...watch what is about to happen soon.
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
tellin ya this is a shake out,don't be fooled,it broke what should have been bottom by the T/A,they are trying to cause a panic.
 
Posted by farmgirl on :
 
This is going the wrong direction. I am also confident that next week will be different and just bought more.


I tried to post on the other site and I got an error that the site device is out of space. Any idea what this is?
 
Posted by portugal1982 on :
 
WOW this is becoming a really bumpy ride down !!!!Ouch
 
Posted by Persia on :
 
Why the confidence for next week, Farmgirl?
 
Posted by farmgirl on :
 
Watch the news. As gas prices rise and as the winter comes it will go up. I do not know exactly when but my guess is up. I bought more today because I have confidence.
 
Posted by TampaInvester on :
 
yeah bought some too to bring my average down
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
Anyone watching the news??? expect gas to hit $5.00 or so,right now its moving up in Maryland to well over $3.

also..

NYMEX declares force majeure due to Rita

NATURAL GAS WILL EXPLODE MONDAY!!!!!!!



5 minutes ago
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Mercantile Exchange said Friday it declared force majeure on September natural gas deliveries due to the closure of the Sabine Pipeline which operates the key Henry Hub delivery point in Erath, Louisiana.

On Thursday, Sabine shut down a pipeline ahead of Hurricane Rita's expected landfall along the Gulf Coast and declared a force majeure, the exchange said in a statement
 
Posted by BULListic on :
 
Quest, I think I know how you think this will play out, but looks like there can be two possible scenario's here with the weather. The downside, operations are halted and nothing is refined, produced, sold, whatever you want to call it. The upside, when things return to "normal" next week, prices skyrocket and one would believe AMEP and others will do extremely well. Is that your position that today people are looking at the negative of having operations curtailed and hence a great time to pick up more shares and then you expect the big positive boom next week? Thanks for your input!

Bull
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
Force Majeure

in simpler terms the meaning is that major companies will not be responsible for any issues caused to anyone due to lack of natural gas including life threatening such as lack of heating,N gas supplied electrical issues and so on.

yeah "SH*T IS ABOUT TO HIT THE FAN"
 
Posted by portugal1982 on :
 
Looks like its taking a hit again today.
 
Posted by BULListic on :
 
Now we're talking...up 20% in the last 20 minutes....
 
Posted by portugal1982 on :
 
Ya i see that, this thing is crazy..
 
Posted by imakmony2005 on :
 
SWING...........
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
November contracts for Natural Gas - 15 min. delayed:

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=NGX05&o=&a=V%3A5&z=610x300&d=medium&b=CANDLE&st=

seen the charts on natural gas??

http://www.futuresource.com/markets/market.jsp?id=energy

Sept vol for AMEP now exceeds all of that combined from June, July & Aug.

And June, July & Aug. were Accumulation months as is Sept

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intcha...&freq=
 
Posted by <Tired> on :
 
Hey Quest do you pump this stock on every damn board?
 
Posted by NaturalResources on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by <Tired>:
Hey Quest do you pump this stock on every damn board?

Quests posts on AMEP are informative and useful. Keep up the good work.
 
Posted by imakmony2005 on :
 
WINNER WINNER WINNER........ LOOKING FOR DIPS.
 
Posted by JL on :
 
Spaceship status. Moving nicely
 
Posted by JL on :
 
Looks like AMEP wants .06s
 
Posted by farmgirl on :
 
Quest, Thank you for all of your research and information on this stock. I have been trading this stock back and forth for months but your post have been great.
 
Posted by JL on :
 
small shake here...and then right back up to new highs.
 
Posted by JL on :
 
Consolidating. Priming for next move.
 
Posted by JL on :
 
Did its consolidation like expected.....now its time to break out new highs.
 
Posted by HighSide on :
 
well JL whats your forecast
 
Posted by JL on :
 
well .063 was hit ... which is new high from last consolidation point of .057...im thinking it might have 1 more leg left today...so once again its consolidating higher lows and possible new highs before eod. IMHO offcourse. Has a nice breakout chart...
 
Posted by podcaster on :
 
AMEP ---
JUST A HEADS-UP TO ALL...
this one may or may not be a good play.... i'll probably be dropping by during October to see how it's doing... and i'll be commenting on how mm's are reacting to boycott... i'm rooting for you if you're successfully playing it, since that hurts the mm's [Eek!] ... i'm also rooting for you if you're in on the october A-G boycott october boycott thread on this board
good luck to you! [Razz]
 
Posted by JL on :
 
ok thx....i support that boycott.
 
Posted by podcaster on :
 
ur welcome--- hope the newbies are following this boycott stuff
 
Posted by Opforce3000 on :
 
POD why are you here? If you are not interested in talking about AMEP...Then shut up
We don't care what you think ... No one does...
You are not saving us...get Lost loser
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
?? what the hell? POD I take it your not invested here? Big mistake for you,come back by February and see us and where we are.

AP
Crude Oil Prices Ease on Product Concern
Tuesday September 27, 5:40 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer

Crude Oil Prices Ease Amid Continued Product Concern As Rita Damage Is Still Being Assessed The loss of natural gas is potentially even more worrisome, analysts said, because disruptions to crude output can be offset by barrels from the rest of the world, plus the government's emergency reserve. There is no such safety valve for natural gas, and the country's ability to import liquefied natural gas is limited.

More than 78 percent of daily natural gas output remains blocked in the Gulf as of Tuesday, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said. The region is the country's main source for the product.

By: tedguice
27 Sep 2005, 06:54 PM EDT
Msg. 31133 of 31137
Jump to msg. #
Hi all! Just got back from the store and listened to the radio a bit. Pacific Gas and Electric, here on the West coast, is running major ads now stating that natural gas prices could double and, perhaps, even triple this winter....so expect your utility bill to get bigger. They are offering the 'fixed payment program' now so that consumers will not get hit so hard all at once with sky high bills. The spokesperson said it was all do to the hurricanes and unprecedented demand. Let's Drill!!

EOM

So, now utility companies have officially thrown down the gauntlet.

Today Kramer gave the call to buy NG.

NG was up slightly today to $12.65, last * 2:44 EST. An hour lately, after NYMEX closed, the projection on CNBC came for a $20 figure ...

AMEP has pretty much mimicked the NG chart over its last run. If NG explodes tomorrow based on the projections, AMEP probably will as well.

The projected drill date is October 7th. Chances are quite good that AMEP will rise with only slight dips until then ... by then, the price may go through the roof. If the rig becomes operational before then and a PR is released, it could be an early Christmas for everyone.

All JMO.
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
I totally recommend being in a good natural gas stock asap.I am reposting this news for a good reason.

Natural Gas: Flameout Ahead?
By Mark Morrison SEPTEMBER 27, 2005 Businessweek Online

Depending on the full extent of hurricane damage, ever-higher prices could even turn into shortages -- with dire economic impacts
While the preliminary damage report for Gulf Coast refineries indicated all but a few would be able to restore many of their operations within a week, the assessment from offshore Gulf oil and gas production areas looked far more sketchy and will probably take more than a week to fully evaluate.

The reason: Oil-field workers will have to travel back to distant sites by boat or helicopter for inspections. And not until deep-sea divers check out wells and connecting pipelines can energy companies know how much damage Rita truly did.

"EVEN MORE PRECARIOUS." While the final answer will hold great importance for future oil and gas prices, what matters most will be the short-term impact on natural gas production. Americans were already anticipating a wildly expensive winter. Home heating bills in parts of the Midwest, for example, were expected to jump a staggering 70% even before calculating the effect of Rita. Now the price could go even higher.

Some economists are actually warning that outright shortages are possible. Cambridge Research Associates' Mike Zenker raised this specter at the National Association of Business Economists confab held this week in Chicago. As he noted, the outcome will depend on the extent of Rita's damage and the severity of weather in the winter months ahead. But the U.S. is now much more susceptible to shortages because of Rita than it was before, he argues.

"Rita has made a precarious situation even more precarious," says Zenker. "Because of the storms we have probably lost the equivalent supply of at least seven to nine days of gas consumption." That adds up to a scary amount, considering that U.S. industry was already losing some of its competitive ability due to high natural gas prices.

FEEDSTOCK URGENCY. What could happen? When a natural gas shortage occurs, most states give first priority to residential gas users. Commercial customers come next.

Electric utilities that serve both household and industrial customers are a wild card: These power companies have chosen gas as the fuel for almost all their new capacity in recent years and have built little capability to use such energy sources as oil or coal. Industrial concerns -- many of them hooked on clean-burning gas since the 1990s when it was readily available and affordable -- come last in most states.

A curtailment can also affect some companies that urgently need gas not as a source of power but as a feedstock to make products. Without enough gas to operate, some businesses, such as those that make chemicals or fertilizers, will have to suspend production or consider moving more of their production to foreign locations where natural gas costs less than one-tenth the U.S. price -- and where the supply appears more reliable.

LAYOFFS POSSIBLE. Long before Katrina and Rita, the natural gas industry was trying to persuade Washington that the U.S. is hurting itself with policies that encourage a premium resource such as natural gas to be treated as a commodity and burned instead of coal or other alternatives to generate electricity.

In the short term, gas shortages and rationing could lead to an ugly winter of layoffs and lower economic growth. In the long term, the free-for-all market for scarce gas will lead some American companies to outsource yet more of their manufacturing -- and jobs.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/sep2005/nf20050927_9413_db03 5.htm
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
The projections for a $20 NG figure are in line with the fear that NG prices will increase by over 70% this winter. This figure was calculated when NG was around $12.

September 28, 2005 08:11 AM ET
Rita causes record damage to oil rigs
Financial Times
All Financial Times News

Hurricane Rita has caused more damage to oil rigs than any other storm in history and will force companies to delay drilling for oil in the US and as far away as the Middle East, initial damage assessments show.

Oil prices eased on Wednesday over concerns that demand for crude would be hit by the continued shutdown of refineries. US crude fell 27 cents to $64.80 a barrel by 06:444 GMT after losing 75 cents on Tuesday.

ODS-Petrodata, which provides market intelligence to the offshore oil and natural gas industry, said it expected a shortage of rigs in the US Gulf this year.

"Based on what we have right now, it appears that drilling contractors and rig owners took a big hit from Rita," said Tom Marsh of ODS-Petrodata. "The path Katrina took was through the mature areas of the US Gulf where there are mainly oil [production] platforms. Rita came to the west where there is a lot of [exploratory] rig activity."

Ken Sill of Credit Suisse First Boston said: "Early reports indicate numerous rigs are missing, destroyed or have suffered serious damage and several companies have yet to report. Rita may set an all-time record."

The US Coast Guard said nine semisubmersible rigs had broken free from their moorings and were adrift.

This damage could not have come at a worse time for oil companies and consumers. US crude futures on Monday fell 37 cents to $65.45 a barrel in midday trading in New York as refineries that were evacuated before the onset of Rita returned to operation.

Earlier in the day, Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, said the market had not taken up the 2m barrels a day of spare capacity the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries offered last week. Speaking in Johannesburg, he blamed high oil prices on a lack of industry infrastructure, including rigs and refineries, rather than oil reserves. Rigs, which are movable and are used for exploration and development, were in short supply before hurricanes Katrina and Rita blew through the US Gulf in late August and September.

High oil prices and the desperate search for new oil supplies needed to meet rampant demand from the US and China have made rigs difficult to find and expensive to hire. Rigs cost $90m-$550m to construct, depending on how sophisticated the structure and how deep the water in which it will drill. A rig ordered today is unlikely to be ready before 2008 or 2009, analysts said.

As a sign of just how precious rigs are becoming to the market, Anadarko, the biggest US independent oil company, this week set a record by committing to a rig six years in advance; commitments in the past were made months ahead of time rather than years.

Initial reports from companies are ominous. Global Santa Fe reported it could not find two of its rigs. Rowan Companies reported four rigs damaged, with two having moved, one losing its "legs" and the fourth presumed sunk. Noble has four rigs adrift, with two run aground one into a ChevronTexaco platform


So, now utility companies have officially thrown down the gauntlet.

Today Kramer gave the call to buy NG.

NG was up slightly today to $12.65, last * 2:44 EST. An hour lately, after NYMEX closed, the projection on CNBC came for a $20 figure ...

AMEP has pretty much mimicked the NG chart over its last run. If NG explodes tomorrow based on the projections, AMEP probably will as well.

The projected drill date is October 7th. Chances are quite good that AMEP will rise with only slight dips until then ... by then, the price may go through the roof. If the rig becomes operational before then and a PR is released, it could be an early Christmas for everyone.
 
Posted by imakmony2005 on :
 
man the more i look the more i like.
 
Posted by strike1 on :
 
Anybody live near where the rig is and can go visit it and report on it and the amep mgmt?
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
inventory data for natural gas to be out at 10am on CNBC...expected on the low side
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
Natural gas well up this AM...$14.42 so far... soon it will be near the $20 per CNBC
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
winter fuel crunches expected and Natural gas climbing strong ahead of energy dept inventory data.
 
Posted by imakmony2005 on :
 
swing and out with $750.00 profit nice.
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
by bond006

Mella McEwen
Oil Editor
Midland Reporter Telegram
09/25/2005

Having seen his prediction that crude oil prices would reach $65 a barrel become reality, Dr. Michael Economides is making equally bold predictions about natural gas. Natural gas prices, he said Wednesday while visiting Midland to address the Permian Basin section, Society of Petroleum Engineers, will reach $20 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) around Christmas.

Having forecast $65 oil, he said, he's now predicting $100 oil "but I'm not impressed with that. Natural gas is the real story."


Economides, professor at the Cullen College of Engineering at the University of Houston and managing partner in a petroleum engineering and strategy consulting firm, lists several reasons for his expectations of high energy prices. One is the "perfect storm" of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Rita's approach has, as of Wednesday afternoon, knocked out 73 percent of the Gulf of Mexico's oil production as personnel were evacuated from offshore rigs and production platforms. On Tuesday, the U.S. Minerals Management Service survey of Gulf of Mexico natural gas wells found that 3.3 percent of gas production has been shut-in as a result of Hurricane Katrina three weeks ago. There is, he said, 3.5 million cubic feet of Gulf of Mexico natural gas production off-line that likely won't be back on the markets by Christmastime.

"What's going to happen is we're going to have a huge shortfall of natural gas and around Christmas there will be a bad present for the Midwest," he observed. That comes at a time, Economides said, when the nation is transitioning from crude oil to natural gas use and domestic production is already struggling to meet rising demand. "Over the next 20 years," he said, "we will have a 25 percent increase in natural gas demand for just electric power generation. Of that, 21 percent will be for new plants and 4 percent to replace coal and nuclear plants."

That means, continued Economides, who has recently appeared on national business news programs discussing energy prices, that over that 20-year period, natural gas demand will rise another 10 trillion cubic feet -- to about 33 Tcf -- and "this means liquefied natural gas will be the only solution." Never before, he noted, has natural gas reached $12 per Mcf, as it has in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. But, he said, even if Katrina and, now Rita, had not stormed through the Gulf of Mexico, the energy markets had problems meeting demand.

He cites other issues impacting energy markets, both domestic and global. Domestically, tight refining capacity is a "disaster," he said, adding that "no doubt" additional refining capacity would have eased supply shortages that sent gasoline prices to $3 per gallon after Katrina damaged Gulf Coast refineries and pipelines that sent supplies to the Midwest and Northeast. Globally the United States is going to have to increasingly compete with other nations for oil and natural gas supplies. China, Economides pointed out, increased oil demand 20 percent in 2004 and will increase demand 20 percent this year. The producing members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, despite promising this week to increase production by 2 million barrels, has no excess production capacity, he said, and tensions between the United States and major producers Iran and Venezuela could jeopardize supplies from those two countries.

Another major producing country, Russia, has regressed to what Economides called the Brezhnev era with the state takeover of Yukos, once Russia's largest oil company, and the jailing of its founder, Mikhail Khodorkovsky. That, he said, puts over 50 percent of Russia's oil production capability in government hands and "that's a serious deficiency." He chided the Bush administration for not forcefully opposing the Russian government's actions, saying the administration should be blasting Russian President Vladmir Putin. "The Bush administration was not stern with Putin, who is a bigger threat than Saddam Hussein was," Economides stated.

All these factors have combined to form what Economides called a "perfect storm -- a double Category 5 perfect storm" to drive prices higher. And next month, he predicted, oil companies will have a major public relations disaster on their hands as they begin reporting historically high third quarter profits that will be "obscene even by our obscene standards." He suggested that the major producers will have to take action, perhaps pooling large sums of money to fund research into alternative energy sources, anything to fend off calls for a new Windfall Profits Tax. There have been calls for the return of the tax, but, Economides scoffed, "it didn't work the first time, why would it work now?"

©MyWestTexas.com 2005

http://www.mywesttexas.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=15274619&BRD=2288&PAG=461&dept_id=474107....
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
"On Wednesday the US Energy Department forecast that US household expenditures on natural gas would be 71 per cent higher than last winter. Before Katrina, households using natural gas for heating were already forecast to pay about 18 per cent more this coming winter."

That big increase from the hurricane
 
Posted by Ivan Baca on :
 
amep is moving upward.
 
Posted by imakmony2005 on :
 
WINNER WINNER WINNER. SOOOO HAPPY....... THANKS QUESTSOLVER.
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
October 1, 2005
American Energy Production: Short Squeeze of the Year

American Energy Production Inc. (OTC: AMEP) is a prime example of a major short squeeze in progresss. On February 22, 2005, the company's shares hit a long term base when company management discontinued the Form 2-E offering which disclosed that the company received $1,820,000 of proceeds from the offering through the sale of 171,000,000 million shares. With an increase in outstanding shares to near 306,171,168 million, the company's shares took a dive to the sub-penny level, but finally bottomed out because the company was seeking alternative financing that was less dilutive. Eventually, good news about the company started to come out, including the most recent in which American Energy's subsidiary, Production Resources Inc. posted significant oil production increases on twelve test wells by as much as 500% for the month of August. Coupled with massive volume, the shares took a massive swing north in the month of September. It seems obvious to many traders that someone had aggressively shorted the stock, believing that it was just another dilutive penny stock scam. But with good news and volume, those same market makers who had shorted the stock were now climbing the bid to cover their shares.

posted by Ant & Sons * 10/01/2005 10:54:00 AM 0 comments
 
Posted by imakmony2005 on :
 
GET READY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
Natural gas price (as of 7:30 Eastern tonight) was 13.994, up two cents from Friday's close.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=NG1!&a=V:5



never know,lots of money is going to be thrown around,wonder what big companies would pay for some percentage of our land rights...hmmmmm

By: TomBurke
02 Oct 2005, 08:35 PM EDT
Msg. 34238 of 34239
Jump to msg. #
Nice to know some big money also thinks NG prices will remain high for some time to come:

====================================

NRG to buy Texas Genco for $5.8 bln By Michael Flaherty
1 hour, 43 minutes ago

NEW YORK (Reuters) - NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE:NRG - news) on Sunday said it will buy Texas Genco Holdings Inc. for $5.8 billion in cash and stock, in a deal that would nearly double the merchant power producer's asset base and give it entry to the growing Texas wholesale electricity market.

The deal may also spark a new round of consolidation among merchant energy producers, which are still recovering from a credit crunch in late 2001 that drove several large independent power producers, including NRG, into bankruptcy.

Private equity firms Texas Pacific Group, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., Blackstone Group and Hellman & Friedman bought Texas Genco last summer for $3.7 billion, using $900 million of their own cash and the rest in debt to snap up the group of Texas-area power plants.

NRG and Texas Genco said in a statement that NRG will pay $4 billion in cash, $1.8 billion in stock, and assume more than $2.5 billion of Texas Genco debt.

The deal marks a nice payout for the private equity firms, who stand to make more than five times their investment. On the other side, NRG is spending a good chunk of money for a company that was owned by the buyout shops for barely a year.

"I think we paid a fair price at the right time," said David Crane, NRG's president and chief executive. "Companies like this don't become available in our sector very often."

Nearly half of Texas Genco's power generation is natural gas fired, with the rest coal and nuclear fueled. The deal therefore is essentially a bet on long term natural gas prices, said Lasan Johong, analyst at RBC Capital Markets Corp.
 
Posted by imakmony2005 on :
 
NICE..........
 
Posted by Slippery Wing on :
 
Any way to get real time futures data? I've got Ameritrade, but I don't know that they provide that information...

-Slip
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
Natural gas price (as of 10:30 Eastern tonight) was 13.994, up two cents from Friday's close.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=NG1!&a=V:5


never know,lots of money is going to be thrown around,wonder what big companies would pay for some percentage of our land rights...hmmmmm

By: TomBurke
02 Oct 2005, 08:35 PM EDT
Msg. 34238 of 34239
Jump to msg. #
Nice to know some big money also thinks NG prices will remain high for some time to come:

====================================

NRG to buy Texas Genco for $5.8 bln By Michael Flaherty
1 hour, 43 minutes ago

NEW YORK (Reuters) - NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE:NRG - news) on Sunday said it will buy Texas Genco Holdings Inc. for $5.8 billion in cash and stock, in a deal that would nearly double the merchant power producer's asset base and give it entry to the growing Texas wholesale electricity market.

The deal may also spark a new round of consolidation among merchant energy producers, which are still recovering from a credit crunch in late 2001 that drove several large independent power producers, including NRG, into bankruptcy.

Private equity firms Texas Pacific Group, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., Blackstone Group and Hellman & Friedman bought Texas Genco last summer for $3.7 billion, using $900 million of their own cash and the rest in debt to snap up the group of Texas-area power plants.

NRG and Texas Genco said in a statement that NRG will pay $4 billion in cash, $1.8 billion in stock, and assume more than $2.5 billion of Texas Genco debt.

The deal marks a nice payout for the private equity firms, who stand to make more than five times their investment. On the other side, NRG is spending a good chunk of money for a company that was owned by the buyout shops for barely a year.

"I think we paid a fair price at the right time," said David Crane, NRG's president and chief executive. "Companies like this don't become available in our sector very often."

Nearly half of Texas Genco's power generation is natural gas fired, with the rest coal and nuclear fueled. The deal therefore is essentially a bet on long term natural gas prices, said Lasan Johong, analyst at RBC Capital Markets Corp.
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
we were mentioned in another companies PR last week on the 30th.

"The recent rise in oil prices will certainly have a positive effect on this industry as the gambling public will be more likely to go online to gamble as opposed to traveling by airplane, car or train to its traditional brick and mortar casino as a result of the higher costs associated with traveling due to the skyrocketing price of oil. Oil companies such as American Energy (OTCBB: AMEP) are already seeing the effects of higher oil prices and we believe that Pegasus and the gaming industry in general will also benefit greatly."


http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20050930\ACQBIZ200509301555BIZWIRE_USPR_____BW5061.htm&symbol=AMEP&selected=AMEP&selecteddisplaysymbol=AMEP&coname=AMERICAN%2 0ENERGY%20PRODUCTION%20I&logopath=&market=OTCBB&pageName=Company%20News
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=AMEP&num1=5&cobrand=&mode=stock


chect out that T/A now,looks like "very bullish" is the dominate key across the board!

Ind. short Inter Long
EMA VBu VBu VBu
MACD VBu VBu VBu
RSI VBu
TDD Bu
Fibs Be Be Bu
Highs N VBu N
Lows N Bu Bu
Trends Bu N N
Stoch. VBu

VBu=Very Bullish, Bu=Bullish
N=Neutral
Be=Bearish, VBe=Very Bearish
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
9 MM's are at .10

9 between .104 and .124

7 more above .124 to .14 and all the way up to .35

only 5 between .097 to .0999 including NITE,HDSN,SHWB,BMIC AND VIEW.


http://www.otcbb.com/asp/Info_Center.asp

GAPPING UP NOW on increased PM volume very early... over 50k so far

looks like it leaves the gate at .10 or so imo!
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
bid at .099 and ask at .0999
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
broke .10 on 70k so far
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
over 130k buys at .10 so far on almost 200k volume
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
guys this is running out of the gate,I doubt anyone will get any buys in the .09's even if it dips,you most likely will only get 5k of obligated shares if your lucky.MM's don't want to give up the shares...period.
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
WOW......thats all I can say...I still stand by my predictions by February and next summer!
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
bid and ask matched constantly,they obviously want shares.
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
no resitance until .12 and very little there until .147,we just started people,you have not seen anything yet.
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
who called .30 this week? was it here or RB? I called .15 or so and damn we may hit that by lunch...LOL
 
Posted by QuestSolver on :
 
wheres the morning dip? my advice is not to sell and try to buy back,you won't get totally filled imo.
 
Posted by farmgirl on :
 
I think that we have started the dip .11 Can this dip under .1? I have more money and want more.
 
Posted by imakmony2005 on :
 
AMEP IS ONE OF THE BEST PLAYS GOING.
 
Posted by strike1 on :
 
Once drilling starts is will be 4-5 days before first news on results.. Better have some shares stashed away.. I do.. GL
 
Posted by strike1 on :
 
The last three candlesticks formed a Bullish Three Stars in the South Pattern . This is a bullish reversal pattern... Looks good for tomorrow... JMHO
 
Posted by Edster on :
 
So much for the bullish candlesticks - down .0145 (16%) at 10:00. How far will this drop today????
 
Posted by Edster on :
 
How did that block of 500,0000 go at .014 when the B/A was .068/.0685????
 
Posted by JL on :
 
Damn glad i got out with a small profit yesterday. I was seein the bullish indicators as well, but AMEP didnt run with them at all. Wheres the bottom? Who knows at this point. Could be .04s-.05s
 
Posted by <Tired> on :
 
Hey QuestSolver no pumping today? Looks like a hurting on this one. Maybe if you post on how you should stick it out everywhere it will do better, heh sorry to those that feed into this hope you are out, this is going to be a quick ride down... I really hope i am wrong for those that bought in high. Down 25% and it's not even Friday, wait until tomorrow...
 
Posted by NaturalResources on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by JL:
Damn glad i got out with a small profit yesterday. I was seein the bullish indicators as well, but AMEP didnt run with them at all. Wheres the bottom? Who knows at this point. Could be .04s-.05s

Dropping below .06 now
 
Posted by NaturalResources on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by <Tired>:
Hey QuestSolver no pumping today? Looks like a hurting on this one. Maybe if you post on how you should stick it out everywhere it will do better, heh sorry to those that feed into this hope you are out, this is going to be a quick ride down... I really hope i am wrong for those that bought in high. Down 25% and it's not even Friday, wait until tomorrow...

Quest posts mostly DD, I wouldn't call it pumping.

Nothing has changed with regards to this stock. It will go back up. In fact I am planning to purchase more today or tommorow when it bottoms out.
 
Posted by Kalorian on :
 
Hello all,

Been out of town and busy with the job hunting. I am still in on this stock and I feel very confident with this stock.

Do the DD before you start trashing this stock. The stock climbed fiercly in my opinion from all the hype AMEP was getting. Lots of folks jumped in as quick as they could and out as quick as they could. Now people are seeing a direct drop in this stock and are panicing. But all this climbing and dropping has been happening without ANY news about the drilling rig being operational. Whether this stock goes back to .01 a trade or .03 a trade it will climb back up and it will climb just as hard when that PR is released in regards to the drilling rig. .05 is probably the lowest this will see. The stock is still undervalued so get in while you can.

Just my 2 cents.
 
Posted by emonkey0015 on :
 
Good to see you belive in what you say enough to put your name on it. I'm out.
 
Posted by charger on :
 
I have a watch list of over 25 Oil n gas stocks under 15. pps and they were all down today(accept 2)substantially, think is was cause the price of gas and oil went down... makes sense
 
Posted by Kalorian on :
 
I agree charger. Just wait for the next press release in regards to the oil drill being ready and operational.

This will give it a kick back up .02 or .03 cents in my opinion.. and once they hit some oil the price will climb just as much.

As quest said this is a long term buy. Short term is going to see a lot of ups and downs so that is just as profitable for the day traders.

just my 2 cents of course.
 
Posted by JL on :
 
Starting to rock a lil.
 
Posted by Kalorian on :
 
22% recover today. Looks like a close at .076 a share. Hope many of you folks decided to stick it out instead fo selling at the end of that shake.

As quest stated before this is going to be going up and down quite a bit in the short term but in the long term it will be gaining steadily.

We are very close to the PR about the drilling rig being operational from what I read a while back it was a few weeks. And then a month or so to get it ready for drilling. Drilling by December or the new year imo.

Time will tell. Have a good weekend all.
 
Posted by bond006 on :
 
this is a long artical from money and markets but it is worth the read


Money and Markets Thursday, October 6, 2005

• The NEXT 40% Rise in Oil
• Dow Transports in Trouble!
• The Big Squeeze
• Two Wake-up Calls
• Black Gold vs. Yellow Metal
• Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction
• Update on the Gulf of Mexico
• Stay Alert … Asia Front Line


Dear Subscriber,

I love quick market corrections like the one we’re seeing right now in oil and oil stocks.

It’s giving early investors an opportunity to add to their winning positions.

It’s providing latecomers with an opportunity to jump on board.

And it’s helping to shake out the weakest players, paving the way for the next, robust rise.

Most important of all: This correction has done nothing to change the powerful fundamental forces that have been — and will continue to be — driving the energy sector higher:

The inflation-adjusted peak in oil prices is still the same — at $91 per barrel, measured in today’s dollars. So compared to other costs, oil and gasoline are still relatively cheap. And until oil reaches at least those levels, I believe it’s vastly premature to talk about “high prices suppressing demand,” the latest rationale for lower oil.


The recent price correction does nothing to correct the short- and long-term supply shortages caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.


Nor does it do anything to resolve the shortages stemming from sabotaged pipelines in Iraq and civil unrest in other oil producing countries.


If anything, any temporary price correction right now merely discourages conservation efforts.


Plus the price correction encourages still more demand from the same countries that have been leading the demand surge month after month — the U.S., China and India.
My view: Before we can begin to talk about an equilibrium between supply and demand, oil prices must get back up into the $90 - $100 range. And by that time, there are bound to be more pressures from demand and from overall to push prices even higher.

My forecast: $130 oil sometime next year.

My recommendation: Hold all your energy and natural resource positions, and wait for my signal to buy more.

Dow Transports in Trouble

While this week’s decline in oil and energy stocks has all the earmarks of a temporary correction, the decline in the Dow Jones Transportation Index is another story entirely.

That’s why, in my Energy Options Alert, I told subscribers to expect a big plunge in the Dow Jones Transportation Index as profits got clocked by higher energy costs. Plus, I went one step further: I told them to buy a put option on the index — an investment that helps you actually profit from the decline.

In late September, the Dow Transports defied my expectations and went up instead of down.

Now, however, the decline I was anticipating has finally begun: In just the last two days of trading, nearly all its recent gains have been wiped out.

Plus, in the next few days, the index looks like it could plunge through its September levels -- and beyond, to a new, 4-month low.

No, energy prices aren’t high enough yet to make a significant dent in demand. But they’re certainly high enough to trim profit margins and stock values in these energy-dependent companies. And this is just the beginning of the damage that I see to a wide variety of companies in virtually every sector.

That’s why four months ago, I issued an even broader warning to my Real Wealth Report subscribers. My headline was:

“The Big Squeeze”

I told my subscribers that key sectors of the U.S. economy would soon look like an orange that had been sliced in half and squeezed in a juicer.

Now, the Big Squeeze is here.

It’s not a temporary phenomenon. Nor is it caused exclusively by surging energy costs. It’s also the result of too much debt ... too little personal savings ... surging prices from other basic materials ... and rising interest rates.

It’s why corporate profits are starting to slump and why companies like General Motors, Ford, Northwest, Delta and many more are in shambles.

Two Wake-up Calls

The decline in the stock market yesterday was your first wake-up call. The news from General Motors was your second.

GM is setting aside up to $800 million from its balance sheet. Plus, it’s selling its remaining stake in Fuji Heavy. These are signs of a company in the first phases of serious distress.

Look at it this way: If giant GM lost $2.5 billion in the first half of the year ... is restating the value of its balance sheet by $800 million ... and is selling off what was once considered a valuable asset ... then you can be pretty sure there are dozens, perhaps hundreds, of other companies that are facing similar, or worse, troubles.

So I hope you’ve listened to my recent warnings and have most of your money safe, in a short-term, liquid, money market. And I hope you’ve also taken seriously my recommendation to limit your stock holdings mostly to natural resources, which should continue to do well.


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Black Gold vs. Yellow Metal

As the torrid pace of events accelerates over the next few months, here’s one fundamental issue you should always keep in mind: The gross undervaluation of gold.

Consider, for example, the relationship between the price of gold bullion and crude oil.

Historically, an ounce of gold usually bought between 11 and 15 barrels of oil. Today, an ounce of gold buys only 7 barrels.

Since it’s unlikely that oil will fall much from current levels, that means the yellow metal is dirt-cheap compared to the price of black gold.

So let’s do the math ...

Say the price of oil stays at its current $64 a barrel. For gold to get back to even the lower end of its purchasing power vis-à-vis oil (11 barrels of crude), that would mean gold would have to rise to $704 an ounce.

And for gold to get back to the upper end of its historical valuation relative to oil (15 barrels), it would have to soar to $960 an ounce.

That sets the parameters very clearly: Gold will have to trade between $704 and $960 per ounce.

And all this assumes no further rise in oil prices. At $90 or $100 oil, gold will have to go much higher.

Unrealistic? I don’t think so. Indeed, gold today is essentially just as undervalued as oil was in 2001, when it was trading at just $17 per barrel. So when gold springs to life and starts adjusting to the loss in the purchasing power of the dollar over the last 20 odd years, it too will explode higher, just like oil has.

I repeat: Gold is extremely undervalued.

I fully expect it to reach $1,000 an ounce. Meanwhile, select gold shares — those that do not hedge the price of gold — could double and triple from current price levels.

No, that’s not going to happen overnight. And like oil, gold and gold shares are also subject to downdrafts and price pauses. Don’t let them bother you. Instead, keep the big picture in focus. That way, you can ride these trends for their full glory.

What are the most likely triggers that could set off the next explosive rally in gold? There are several:

First, general inflation. It’s rising, just as I’ve been predicting for over three years. And, right now, it’s going to start rising much more quickly. The most immediate reason: The $200 billion in paper money that the government is going to have to print and borrow in order to rebuild the Gulf ... plus, lax monetary policies in virtually every corner of the globe.

Second, rising social and political stress. Unfortunately, the war on terror is destined to continue for years. There will be social upheavals in China between the rich and the poor.

And there is no end in sight to the heated ethnic conflicts precisely in those areas where natural resources are among the richest: Central Africa, Indonesia and key regions of South America.

I expect all of these to escalate in the years ahead, creating acute shortages of raw materials, more inflation shocks and surging demand for gold.

Third, the dollar decline. While it’s stable right now, the long-term downtrend remains firmly intact.

The budget deficit — which will now blow out to record highs due to Katrina and Rita — virtually ensures a falling dollar. Added on top of that: Another $44 trillion in unfunded liabilities in this country.

Fourth, don’t forget ...

Derivatives:
Financial Weapons
of Mass Destruction

Derivatives are instruments used by banks, insurers, commodity producers and other institutions to help hedge against losses ... and to make speculative bets on the future direction of virtually any market.

Most of the players and analysts stress the hedging side of the equation. They see these leveraged bets as good “insurance” to help provide markets with better liquidity and investors with better protection against adverse price moves.

The problem: Derivatives are designed for protection against reasonable price movements that are largely expected. They do not provide protection against dramatic changes that are unexpected. In fact, it’s precisely those kinds of disasters that can cause a massive “blow-up” in derivatives.

Some examples: The 1992 currency crisis in Europe … the 1994 Mexican peso crisis … the collapse of Barings Bank in 1995 ... the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 ... and the default by Russia on its debt in 1998, precipitating the demise of Long Term Capital Management — just to name a few.

Now, here’s what bothers me the most about the derivatives market: Its growth is out of control, and no one has a good handle on who owns what or where the hidden risks may lie.

According to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the notional, or gross amount of derivative bets held by insured U.S. banks, is now $96.2 trillion.

If just 1% of the $96.2 trillion in derivatives were to go bad, that could cause nearly one TRILLION in losses that would cascade through the system.

What might trigger the derivatives crisis? I see three major threats on the horizon:

Threat #1. Surging interest rates. The OCC reports that 85% of the derivatives are based on the direction of interest rates. That means that if I’m right about oil, natural resources and inflation, and if the inflation drives interest rates up as sharply as I expect, there are bound to be a series of disasters in this sector.

Reason: When placing their bets, thousands of banks, insurance companies, and mortgage lenders rely on relatively stable, or at least predictable, interest rates. If rates spike more quickly than expected, many will get caught with large losses, and some could even fail.

Threat #2. Real Estate Prices. The average price of a condo in Manhattan has slumped 13% in the third quarter just ended, the biggest drop in 16 years. If Manhattan is slipping, you can pretty much assume that the hot real estate markets elsewhere are starting to crack as well.

There are trillions of dollars at stake in the mortgage markets, with many links to the interest-rate derivatives I just told you about. So a sharp, unexpected decline in real estate prices could send many banks, mortgage companies and other financial institutions over the edge.

Threat #3. The dollar itself. If the dollar’s long-term decline resumes, as I expect it will, the greenback itself could set off a derivatives nuclear bomb.

How so? Foreign investors are financing up to 75% of this country’s trade deficit as well as a substantial portion of the U.S. federal deficit.

Result: The U.S. has suffered a rapid deterioration in its net international investment position (NIIP). Specifically, in the past 23 years, our NIIP has deteriorated from a liability of merely 10% of GDP to a liability of almost 25% of GDP.

Meanwhile, the value of foreign holdings in the United States now exceeds U.S. holdings abroad by nearly $4 trillion.

That’s unsustainable. At some point, overseas investors will throw in the towel on U.S. assets, and the dollar will crater, causing more derivatives bombs to go off.

Update on the Gulf of Mexico ...

As of this morning, production in the Gulf that’s still shut down amounts to over 1.3 million barrels of oil per day, or nearly 90% of the daily oil production.

Meanwhile, the shut-down in gas production is over 7 billion cubic feet per day, equal to just over 71% of the daily gas production.

Since Katrina hit, the cumulative shut-downs in oil production is over 46 million barrels, 8% of the yearly Gulf production; while the cumulative gas production shut-down is 226 billion cubic feet, over 6% of the yearly gas production.

In short, the recovery progress in the Gulf oil and gas production is a lot slower than most analysts expected.

Look at it this way: Last year’s Hurricane Ivan destroyed 7 platforms, 100 pipelines and ZERO rigs. By contrast, Katrina and Rita have destroyed 90 platforms, at least 5 rigs, and a still-unknown number of pipelines.

Stay Alert ... Asia Front Line

Next week, I’m off to Asia with stops planned in Bangkok, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and if time permits, Mumbai. I’ll be reporting to you from the front lines.

Best wishes for your health and wealth,

Larry Edelson
Editor, Real Wealth Report
Energy Options Alert
Gold Trader Hotline


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

About MONEY AND MARKETS

MONEY AND MARKETS (MAM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Larry Edelson, Tony Sagami and other contributors. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MAM. Nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MAM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical inasmuch as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Contributors include Marie Albin, John Burke, Michael Burnick, Beth Cain, Amber Dakar, Scot Galvin, Michael Larson, Monica Lewman-Garcia, Julie Trudeau and others.

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GET IN STROGER.GO AMEP=$$$$$...
 
Posted by Berlin on :
 
Amep will keep going up despite the recent slide. According to the wsjournal, oil and tech stocks always play catch up in the 4th quarter --a mad dash to the finish line. [Big Grin]
 


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