Post any trading tips and tricks here that might help us reach our goal.
1. I'll start here's one always have some free cash lying around alot of times when your cash is all tied up in some stock that's not moving you'll miss out on one that is.
offshore
Posted by STAR GAZER on :
INSIDER BUYING. Over the years I've noticed that stocks tend to go up when they have insiders buying the stock and converesly stocks tend to trend downward when there is a lot of insider selling. (See DOUBLE L's comment on KTEL which shows a lot of insider buying) On average more insiders sell than buy because they may need the money for things such as collage fees for their children, etc. PROTECT YOUR INVESTMENT. When you first start off (such as us at the start of the year) and only have a limited amount of money to invest be careful of buying a stock that might go out of business. Looking at the SEC filings may tell you if the company is having financial problems. READ THE SEC POSTS that our people have taken a lot of their time posting for us. At the very begining it talks about PLKC: DOUBT ABILITY TO CONTINUE AS A GOING CONCERN because they don't have the capital to fund ongoing operations and have suffered recurring losses. Also CASY: LACK of SALES & ABSCENCE OF FUNDING. This is just a red flag, it means that you need to do thourough DD. You might want to wait and add it at a later date when it won't hurt the overall results so much if it has a large drop in price, also that will give more time to see how their funding etc. is doing.
DONT BUY STOCKS THAT ARE IN A STRONG DOWNTREND. CONVERSELY, BUY STOCKS THAT ARE STARTING TO MOVE UP. If a stock was in a downward trend and then moved sideways and formed a base, then, if it is starting to move up and the technicals are good or if its fundamentals are good, such as nearing FDA approval etc. then you can consider buying it.
SPECIAL SITUATIONS such as what to do when the Cuban leader Fidel Castro dies. (I will be posting a write up later on that.) If you have thought about it before hand, you will know what stocks may benifit, and so you will be able to jump in fast enough to get into the stocks before they start climbing.
BUY A STRONG STOCK, ESPECIALLY ON A PULLBACK There may a dip before a zip. LBTT is an excellent example. It has great fundamentals, it shot upward from .002 to +.03, stalled, went down to .017, held and started to edge upward, which was a good time to get back in, and now is back at .03, but even though it is up 76% from the .017 level it is still an excellent buy because of its outstanding fundamentals. I would think that it could easily reach .30 or even much higher.
You can make money on MOMENTUM STOCKS. These would be short plays, but that is what we are doing, we want to make a lot of money in a short time. We have a lot of people that are good at reading technical charts and they make posts under that section. We should read what they post. I have read that it is not how a stock starts the day, but how it finishes, such as a higher high, plus during the day if it also had a higher low. If a large amount of money is starting to go into a stock, especially in relation to its number of shares, such as a vol of 100 million in a stock with 300 million shares.
Posted by STAR GAZER on :
Oh yeah. BUY LOW PRICED STOCKS. All things considered, if two stocks both seem good, and one is .10 and the other is .01, then buy the .01 stock
Posted by offshoretrader on :
1. Never sell one stock to buy another one unless you have too alot of times when you sell a stock to buy another stock the stock you sold goes up and the stock you bought just sits there.
2. Forget about free shares until you have enough cash to buy back your original position if your timing is off.
3. Never let a profit turn into a loss. It's better to take the cash and be wrong than to wait until it's gone!!!
offshore
Posted by tasharruf on :
I need some advice. I totally agree on the subject but the question is how to figure out what stop price to set. For example if a stock XYZ was bought @ 13.3 and then it moves up to $15 but then fluctuates as low as $13.9, should stop limits be set to protect your profit even though it might be not big. Too many times the price seems to reach your stop price, execute your sell order and climb up again. Any suggestions?
Posted by VNGNTN1 on :
TASH Historically the S&P Moves no more than about 7% daily, the stock has a "beta" factor(unique movement against S&P)a stock also might yield dividends. I have had a 90+% success in using this formula: Current price x 1.07 x beta x DivYield. Since you did not provide the symbol I can't calculate it for you. VAN
Posted by tasharruf on :
Thanks, the symbols are
CORV, NXTP
if you could show the numbers, it would be nice so I could do it then on my own thanks
Posted by STAR GAZER on :
Persistance breaks down resistance. When a stock with good fundamentals starts to move up and then falls back after hitting a previous resistance area, eventually, it will break through and start going to new highs.
Posted by VNGNTN1 on :
TASH CORV Price=$2.69;Beta=3.955;DivYield=0(1.00) 2.69x.07=.1883x3.955=.7447x1.0=.7447-2.69= SELL LIMIT 1.945 NXTP Price$14.13;Beta=2.692;DivYield=0(1.00) 14.13x.07=.989x2.692=2.663x1.00=2.663-14.13=SELL LIMIT 11.467 --------------- CAUTION RISING & FALLING MARKETS CHANGE BETA, and naturally Dividend change quarterly. --------------- Replace DivYield with .75 and this makes a good entry point. May have to wait a week or sometimes. THIS DOES NOT COME FROM ANYONE I KNOW, JUST SOMETHING I HAVE WORKED ON.
[This message has been edited by VNGNTN1 (edited January 27, 2004).]
Posted by jgoldsbe on :
Wow! I'm impressed by this board.
Can you further explain the beta thing to me?
VNGN, you said you had 90% sucess using the formula. Is it for stops?
Also, what else can the beta factor do for you? Thank you!
JEG
Posted by VNGNTN1 on :
JEG YES the formula described is for stocks you hold but don't(REALLY) want to sell, but (REALLY) want to protect a gain. Depending on your GREED. This formula can get you in immediatly when you cross your "cost". The "BETA" is a factor calculated by "a professional" group that says. "IF" the S&P 500" move up/down 1% the stock " beta " will follow at the "beta's" value. The risk you take is How Much will the S&P move??. I assume the risk of 7% in any given day. This is referred to as a TRAILING STOP. The beta is no more than a "piece" of data to use as you make decisions on what to buy & sell. Hope you take advantage & contribute to the "club" VAN
[This message has been edited by VNGNTN1 (edited January 30, 2004).]
[This message has been edited by VNGNTN1 (edited January 30, 2004).]
[This message has been edited by VNGNTN1 (edited January 30, 2004).]
Posted by offshoretrader on :
1. Reduce your trading activity after a series of winners.
2. Don't analyze and act on the market during trading hours.
3. A good trade is profitable from the start.
4. Avoid becoming emotionally involved.
5. Ban wishful thinking.
6. If you don't know whats going on, don't trade.
7. Patience, Patience , Patience.
8. Work hard.
9. Reward yourself often
offshore
Posted by STAR GAZER on :
(1) It's human nature to not want to buy a stock where you missed the low point and it has started a strong upward move, however
Just because stock has doubled doesn't mean that it wont double and double again. (2) All work and no play makes for a sad day, or something like that. Therefore Long walks in the country side, away from home are much to be desired, especially when taken by neighbors that I can't stand.
Posted by STAR GAZER on :
(1) Don't bet the farm (or house) on any one stock, something unforseen could happen, and then you would have dug yourself into a big hole. However (2) Consider the risk/reward ratio, if it is exceptionally good, then you could allocate a larger than normal amount of money on the stock.
Posted by Billy on :
Thanks Star for the thoughts. Billy
Posted by NewInvestor on :
I love how you calculated the limit price. However, how do you find the Beta. Where do you go to find the Beta number? I think you said that you find it on how the stocks price changes in relation to the S and P. Do you take the stocks price for yest and see how it changed in relation to the s and P's price the day before. Is there a website that posts the stock's Beta?
Posted by VNGNTN1 on :
NI A very simple concept If two cars are moving side by side along a highway. CAR A red YUGO top speed 57mph CAR B Green Corvette capable of 175mph History says the YUGO speeds up going downhill to 60mph and slows to 40mph up the next hill. There are many of these cars and so the poweres that be state: Regardless of the vehicle you are in and you are matching the YUGO speed you are averaging 50mph(S&P500) Now here you are in car B, not too many of these that's why you bought it,and we both know the hill really makes no difference to you so today while matching YUGO speed of 50mph you look around, No cops, nice straight road and decide to accelrate up the hill at 120mph the "BETA" is 3( 120/40 Yugo speed uphill) CAR A driver notices a much different sound from the vette and goes to a mechanic who install a supercharger increasing car A to a Downhill of 80mph , Uphill of 60mph and average of 75 level running) CAR A has changed the percentage related to Car B which would now be "BETA" 2(120/60) These number are for an advancing market, but would apply to a sideways market as well as a declining market(downhill). SUMMARY Beta is a mathmatical relationship of one defined entity(S&P 500) against another entity capable of different performance which changes when defined entity changes. Moving averages are related to this concept also. I hold between 50 & 60 stocks at any given time and review chnages monthly. REMINDER If you intend to use this formula don't forget to also check dividends or splits. Why bump out of a good deal if you don't need to. What I have said is; I have a "PLAN" with numbers attached. This allows me to make adjustments to the numbers NOT the plan. VAN
[This message has been edited by VNGNTN1 (edited February 15, 2004).]
[This message has been edited by VNGNTN1 (edited February 15, 2004).]