Allstocks.com's Bulletin Board: Irish bookmaker pays out early on Obama victory

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Posted by bdgee on :

"We declare this race well and truly over and congratulate all those who backed Obama,"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081016/pl_nm/us_bookmaker_obama_1

Posted by glassman on :

i don't believe that.

Posted by bdgee on :

I've tried to disprove it and only run into more reports from reliable sources claiming that it is true.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=mozilla&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:unoffici al&q=Irish+bookmaker+pays+out&start=10&sa=N

There is a bookie claiming to have done exactly what the reports say.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&disp_cat_id=&ev_c lass_id=33&ev_type_id=5142&ev_oc_grp_ids=23034&bir_index=

http://www.electionbetting.com/

Posted by cottonjim on :

From the outside looking in it looks like a gamble but, If the outcome goes the way they say, they stand to save themselves money on future bets. I am guessing that all bets are off at this point, except for Mcain bets, sure money in their eyes I suppose.

Posted by glassman on :

quote:
Originally posted by cottonjim:
From the outside looking in it looks like a gamble but, If the outcome goes the way they say, they stand to save themselves money on future bets. I am guessing that all bets are off at this point, except for Mcain bets, sure money in their eyes I suppose.

i suppose i don't know enough about bookmaking,

maybe nobody is betting on McCain at all? and that would mean they can't take bets on Obama anymore because they can't "lay them off"? but paying out three weeks in advance just doesn't sound right.

Posted by CashCowMoo on :

pride comes before fall

Posted by Machiavelli on :

quote:
Originally posted by glassman:

quote:
Originally posted by cottonjim:
From the outside looking in it looks like a gamble but, If the outcome goes the way they say, they stand to save themselves money on future bets. I am guessing that all bets are off at this point, except for Mcain bets, sure money in their eyes I suppose.
i suppose i don't know enough about bookmaking,

maybe nobody is betting on McCain at all? and that would mean they can't take bets on Obama anymore because they can't "lay them off"? but paying out three weeks in advance just doesn't sound right.

The bookie makes money from the Vig (commission)... in order for them to collect that vig they need an equal amount of bets on both sides (McCain & Obama)... so the bookie tweeks the odds up and down to attract more bets to one side (McCain) if alot of bets are being made to the other (Obama)... if the bets are equal or close to equal.. no matter who wins the bookie collects what is in the middle.. the Vig... he would use the bets made on McCain to pay off the Obama bettors and what is left is the commission to the bookie... when i bet on football i have to lay out $11 for every $10 I want to win... so that extra $1 is the bookie's commission/vig... if he has equal bets on both sides of a football game...

But in this case of the bookie paying 3 weeks early... I would suspect that no matter how much the bookie is tweeking the odds to attract more bettors to McCain, it's not working and the betting is being one sided in that if Obama does win the bookie would be wiped out in paying off the bets because the Vig itself would also be used in paying them off and if he doesn't have enough $$ to cover the bets he goes bankrupt...

Bookies are businessmen and not gamblers... they don't care who wins or loses an event so as long as there are equal bets that balance the "book" and he collects his vig/commission....

Posted by PCola77 on :

Mach, that's all true, but why wouldn't they just take it off the baord and not accept any more bets on eitehr side? What good can come of paying out early? They lose out on a month or so of interest income. As slim as they think the chances are, if McCain wins, what do they do to all the people who bet McCain? Do they then pay them also?

Something doesn't make sense.

Posted by cottonjim on :

quote:
Originally posted by Machiavelli:

quote:
Originally posted by glassman:

quote:
Originally posted by cottonjim:
From the outside looking in it looks like a gamble but, If the outcome goes the way they say, they stand to save themselves money on future bets. I am guessing that all bets are off at this point, except for Mcain bets, sure money in their eyes I suppose.
i suppose i don't know enough about bookmaking,

maybe nobody is betting on McCain at all? and that would mean they can't take bets on Obama anymore because they can't "lay them off"? but paying out three weeks in advance just doesn't sound right.
The bookie makes money from the Vig (commission)... in order for them to collect that vig they need an equal amount of bets on both sides (McCain & Obama)... so the bookie tweeks the odds up and down to attract more bets to one side (McCain) if alot of bets are being made to the other (Obama)... if the bets are equal or close to equal.. no matter who wins the bookie collects what is in the middle.. the Vig... he would use the bets made on McCain to pay off the Obama bettors and what is left is the commission to the bookie... when i bet on football i have to lay out $11 for every $10 I want to win... so that extra $1 is the bookie's commission/vig... if he has equal bets on both sides of a football game...

But in this case of the bookie paying 3 weeks early... I would suspect that no matter how much the bookie is tweeking the odds to attract more bettors to McCain, it's not working and the betting is being one sided in that if Obama does win the bookie would be wiped out in paying off the bets because the Vig itself would also be used in paying them off and if he doesn't have enough $$ to cover the bets he goes bankrupt...

Bookies are businessmen and not gamblers... they don't care who wins or loses an event so as long as there are equal bets that balance the "book" and he collects his vig/commission....

Kind of what I said, cept I have 6 more breaths worth of life before I go.

Posted by Machiavelli on :

quote:
Originally posted by PCola77:
Mach, that's all true, but why wouldn't they just take it off the baord and not accept any more bets on eitehr side? What good can come of paying out early? They lose out on a month or so of interest income. As slim as they think the chances are, if McCain wins, what do they do to all the people who bet McCain? Do they then pay them also?

Something doesn't make sense.

I suppose in Europe it is different in that the McCain bettors accept the outcome before it happens... because they aren't making a stink about it... if the bettors were American I would like to believe they would make a stink about it and demand their bets back lol

Posted by Machiavelli on :

quote:
Originally posted by cottonjim:
Kind of what I said, cept I have 6 more breaths worth of life before I go.

no you didn't... take that back meanie... [Were Down]

Anyways me was explaining the bookie business to Glass in more detail so he understood how it works...

Posted by glassman on :

yeah but it still doesn't splain why they'd pay early...they should just tweak the odds more..

5-1 McCain 1 to 19-20 Obama..

intrade has Obama 84.6 Mccain 15.6....

i'm thinking of gettin an intrade account, but i understand it may be hard to bring the money back to the states...

http://www.intrade.com/

Posted by Machiavelli on :

well i book my bets on www.bookmaker.com ... never had a problem with getting my $$ ... but as for not paying early.. yah you right but what can you say... they are Europeans and do things differently lol here the craze is Hold Em poker and in Europe it is Omaha poker... just as an example...

Posted by glassman on :

i guess these guys knew what they were doing...

Posted by Machiavelli on :

that's why they are still in business.. it's their business to know the correct odds and to see if betting is being lopsided they will be wiped out in case of a upset...