Factors For The Upcoming Season Along the East Coast, southeastern Florida and the Carolinas have the highest statistical risk of landfalls, since the greatest number of storms over the course of record keeping have hit in these two areas. Our forecast measures likelihood relative to normal and shows that, in spite of the normally higher number of storms expected, the Carolinas are still in an above-normal risk region. This means the greatest overall threat of a landfall will be on the Carolina coastline, but the greatest elevated threat, in relationship to averages, will be in New England. It is felt that the heavy rain in New England in October last year were the sign of the maturing of the warm-water cycle in the Atlantic. The landfall forecast is based upon several key factors and a study of past years with similarly pronounced weather features.
1) North American Climate/Hurricane Cycle
The expected building of heat and dryness this summer across the midsection of the United States is a pattern very reminiscent of the conditions experienced in the 1930s and again during several years in the 1940s and 1950s. Not coincidentally, it is felt that general positioning of the upper-level steering currents over North America and ocean water temperatures relative to normal helped contribute to what was identified as an approximately 20-year cycle of above-normal tropical cyclone activity in the Gulf and Atlantic Basin. The current multi-decadal cycle of elevated activity, which started in 1995, is similar to the cycle from the 1930s to the 1950s, which produced major hurricane hits on the United States coastline at a much more frequent rate than the downtime that occurred in the mid- and late 1960s through early 1990s. As for the Gulf of Mexico, major landfalls have occurred during downtimes in the early part of the century, including the more recent downturn. A classic example of this occurred between 1961 and 1971. During this period, six major hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast while either intensifying or maintaining strength as they came ashore (Carla, Hilda, Betsy, Beulah, Camille, Celia). In contrast, during the current cycle, major hurricanes in the western and central Gulf have been weakening as they come ashore. Our view is that the climate cycle signal is of more importance along the East Coast than the Gulf Coast relative to landfalls.
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