SPPI- I think we are going to see a test of new lows around 5.30-5.20. If the day after the intermediate low recoils I am good to go long. My stop is at the previous day's low.
This is a new system I am working on. I have the risk reward at about 1:3.
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I've been away dealing with school and the girlfriend who is no more. I have had a tough couple months but I am back and ready to get going again! I hope you wife is better art.
As far as sppi I am impressed with the recent action. I get a sense that nobody was it it though (including me). I think the buy signals could have been: 1.(June-Aug) Intermediate downtrend was broken on aug 1st along with the macd crossover. 2.The obvious failed attempt at new lows on the 11th of august.
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Wished my foresight was half as good as my hindsight - I'd be rich.
Problem with post hoc hypotheses: Given one outcome you can sometimes generate a thousand theories/explanations to account for it, with no way to decide which is true.
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True, but we technicians base everything on past probabiliies and events. The chart shows the footsteps of a stock and there are no lies. I hope that through enough studying of historical charts that we can become better traders. And those two things I pointed are instances that I often look for. A broken downtrend signals a top or bottom. A failed secodary reaction tells you who is now in control. You are right though it is real easy to look back and say woulda' coulda' shoulda'.
Hey I got a book you should look a art. Victor Sperandeo was a trader and fund manager back in the 80's and 90's. His economic ideologies coencide closely with ours. He is not solely a chartist, but still has shown some of the best tools I have yet to see in the many books I have read. Best of all he is not selling anything in the book.
Your picks are real good, which substantiates your analyses.
I haven't been able to use my chart analysis tools as I can't use my own computer for awhile.
When I develop a buy formula post hoc (after the fact), I look at charts of big upswings and try to decide what TA (tech analysis) factors could have predicted it. Then I look for these factors as a buy signal and form an a priori (before the fact) hypothesis that the stock is due to go up. However, this often does not pan out. The trick is to win more often than you lose - it is all about probabilities.
Stocks in a downtrend, that have made 3 or more new bottoms in that downtrend curve (rising some after each bottom, then going down further), then showing some rise after a period of consolidation (ups and downs in a narrow range while trading sideways), might be good to buy.
If I had my computer I could come up with some of these - perhaps someone else could help here.
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Two recently posted ones show the pattern I talked about.
AHI has gone down and may be consolidating at 2.4. Might take a while to break to the upside though. I would buy at 2.3 or less and wait for it to go up in time.
FMDAY has downtrended and has been consolidating and may try to soon break to the upside. I would buy at .82 if it dips this low.
TMWD also shows the pattern and is now trying to uptrend after consolidating recently.
As always, watch the general market and the news, factoring this info in.
[This message has been edited by Art (edited September 16, 2004).]
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