posted
Has been a huge fire sale on CTDH lately, people have hit the panic button quickly on dilution fears: lost over half it's value in the last week alone. Maybe a bit oversold though, the company is profitable and has some potential imho. I'm in today for a small holding at .20. With the fire sale, the price is approaching only 3x earnings for last year and the market cap dipping to about $1M, on $290K profit last year.
Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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posted
Hey Blue, this one looks a bit funny, my guess is it'll bounce around .20 and .40 for a while... Take a look at the 10 year chart, it could go either way.....shrug!
Posts: 1171 | From: B.C. CANADA | Registered: Feb 2004
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posted
not sure if i'll stick around long-term on this one. however, they are going to have a good 1stQ '04 report: earnings for 1Q are going to be at least > 10% of the entire market cap of the stock, based on their march PR. also, i think people might be overreacting to a single basher on the RB boards.
i'm only in for a measly amount @ .20, but - I dunno, will stick around for a bit and see if this is being panic-oversold. i'm kind of a chem-geek, and i also have an affinity for stocks that trade at single-multiples of quarter-earnings. i also like stocks that have very large profit margins in terms of % of revenue.
it wouldn't surprise me if this dropped to .15 or so, but it also wouldn't surprise me if in 3 months after a good earnings report this bumped back up to .35. we'll see, should be interesting.
I like this one as well. Fundamentals are great! Good time to buy!!!! IMO I've had this for some time now and always buying more. If I remember right, it had a high at somewhere between .48 and .51.
posted
I carefully read the latest filings at Edgar Online, and I have to say: I'm still somewhat mystified by the CTDH fire sale lately. The latest S-8 talks about some odd things like the CEO's baseball card collection (?), but makes *no* indication of any real dilution. There is mention of 250k shares, which amounts to at best 4-5% dilution. There is another recent document about the CEO selling about 1-2% of his holdings. In either case, nothing that would justify the stock losing 2/3 of it's value in a few weeks. There is some uncertainty with the whole Eline thing, granted. Still - if this thing dips anymore, I'll be buying more. Based on an annualized return from the last 2 quarter's earnings, the market cap to earnings ratio is less than 2:1. In other words, the stock is now worth barely twice it's annualized earnings per share. I don't know of many companies with those kind of numbers, especially those with 80-90% profit margins. Maybe I'm being gullible here or missing something, but - I can't understand letting it go at 16.5, as some did today. The company is profitable and has had record earnings the last 2 quarters. Considering that only 40% of the shares are in the public float and the CEO is by far the biggest holder, the bashing on other boards doesn't make sense to me. Any comments, anyone? I'm certainly open to input, the whole thing seems... odd to me. Sigh, where's PG when you need her?! Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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It would be a sad day for not only me but allstocks in general if PG stopped coming around here. Her posts not only burst with insight but also resonate with wit and literacy. There are many others on this board who's posts I read and respect (including your own GD), but PG's tastes and sensibilities wrt stocks seem to best naturally correlate with my own. I am hoping she is just extremely busy (as it sounds like) and will be back in a week or two. Posts: 1698 | Registered: Mar 2004
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What do you mean risk? What risks do your charts show you with this stock? Aren't you taking many, many more risks with those sub-penny stocks? They never even show earnings, let alone a balance sheet that suggests they might survive. LOL Seriously, what the devil do you look at in those charts that suggest a buying situation, other than the fact that over a lengthy period of time (as opposed to a day) they are going up???
Blue -
Keep the faith!!! I just bought again today. I cannot see it staying down!
[This message has been edited by Wallace#1 (edited April 20, 2004).]
posted
You tell 'em Blue!!! It closed at .28 today. Doubled my holdings at the low. Do you think Greg knows what he's talking about???? Yo Ho Ho and a barrel of rum! LOL
[This message has been edited by Wallace#1 (edited April 21, 2004).]
posted
very strange day for CTDH. rocketed up to .35, fell back a bit, then sat at .28 all afternoon. i originally showed .28 close, now scottrade shows .22 close, but with bid/ask at .27/.33. huh?
anyway, a strange, but - a good day i think for ctdh all in all. a few more days and i am hoping we'll see prices stabilize and bottom support at .30. we'll see though, some days not much makes sense to me about the market. a very large bid/ask differential for ctdh most of the day also: .10 and sometimes larger.
posted
HAHAHAHA... Wallace, I'm here, and NO, I don't know what I'm talking about, and YES looking at 10 year charts is "middle age" stuff, but I AM middle aged... Don't kid yourself, I can read, life's too short to spend it reading every companies news and financials.
And a 10 year chart will tell you a lot, things like the companies past performance, splits, highs, lows, resistance, historical volumes, future volumes, MM signs, ect.
Hey, how old are you anyways???????
You know the old saying, " I wish I knew then, what I know now".
Did you see today's release? Cut down, says "Acquisition strategy is key to continued growth and profitability, favorable reference to the company's income, earnings growth as well as a 100% increase in EPS, and, an apparent reference to previous news that Eline Entertainment recently announced a plan to acquire 51% of CD Holdings." Do you know about the last item?
Checked CBS Marketwatch and Smallcap Center. They too show the last as .22. So does my Scottrade. When I sent you that last msg, Scottrade and all else showed .28. Further, at 4:00 pm, I was watching the Streaming Quotes on Scottrade and it definitely showed CTDH at .28.
Don't know what's going on!
Greg - I'm probably old enough to be your father. Better start showing the old man some respect!!!! LOL
Really wish you would tell me what you look for in a chart and what suggests an upper movement. A slight turn up? Something else? Do you go by the candlesticks, or are you looking at regular line charts? Specifics?
[This message has been edited by Wallace#1 (edited April 21, 2004).]
I'm not a day trader, I'll hold anywhere from a week to 6 months.
I look for rollers, flatliners, bases and try to get in right before they pop.
PRIM is a good example, EPEA is a good example, QBID, PCBM, INOV(mia), IVOC, NNCO, CLSI, PALR, VISH, the list goes on....
CTDH as an example, look a the 3 year chart and notice the highs and lows, right now it's coming down from a high of .40 - .50 , and a low of .05 , today it sits at .22 .
So, in my opinion, it has a 50/50 chance of going back to .50 or back to .05 . So IMO it's a little risky. If news and financials are good, I might risk it, but there are so, so, so many stocks to pick from, this one just isn't for me.
I hope I'm wrong and you guys pull a quick 100% profit.
posted
First off, I'm not getting involved in your guys' good-natured argument!
CTDH closed at .27 with .27/.33 spread today, but on teeny volume. And I do mean teeny - barely $100 traded up until nearly the close when $1k went through. Hard to say where it will go from here, but imho the chances of it going back up to at least the mid-30's look a lot better than the chances of it dumping back to 16.5. We'll see where it stands in a month, I'm definitely curious.
As for the Eline deal, it's definitely a wildcard. The odd thing is though - the selloff didn't happen until a week *after* the announcement.
Odd, and interesting. Hard to say how this will affect the pps. Maybe no one will even notice, seems like an average of ~$300 is traded in CTDH daily. Just set out a .18 lowball limit buy order, just in case anyone panic-sells on this news.
posted
W#1, hah! Yup, no one noticed or cared: was a total of 220 shares or - $50 traded on Friday! Guess someone needed pizza and beer money for the weekend.
This is interesting, check the stock of the company that was going to buy CTDH but then the deal fell through. Was $7 at the time of the acquisition, now trading at $1.30 just a few weeks later! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EEGI.OB&t=3m
Pretty interesting, especially because of this sentence in the original PR about the acquisition:
"Eline Entertainment will acquire a majority of the outstanding stock of CTD Holdings from its principal shareholder, Rick Strattan, in exchange for common stock of Eline Entertainment."
Hard to say, but the logical assumption might be that Rick pulled the plug because of Eline's complete 80% pps collapse over the last 2 weeks.
Judging from the $50 daily numbers being traded, I'm concluding: (a) no one cares about this stock except you and me, (b) the few that do care, are taking a "wait and see" approach on things during this volatile period. Fundamentals still look good to me. I find it hard to resist tiny-float, ridiculously-low PE companies with growing revenues, 85% profit margins, a niche market, and growth potential. We'll see, but I'm holding.
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