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Author Topic: Arctic ice cap melting 30 years ahead of forecast
rimasco
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By Deborah Zabarenko, Environment Correspondent
2 hours, 59 minutes ago



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Arctic ice cap is melting much faster than expected and is now about 30 years ahead of predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a U.S. ice expert said on Tuesday.


This means the ocean at the top of the world could be free or nearly free of summer ice by 2020, three decades sooner than the global panel's gloomiest forecast of 2050.

No ice on the Arctic Ocean during summer would be a major spur to global warming, said Ted Scambos, a glaciologist at the National Snow and Ice Center in Colorado.

"Right now ... the Arctic helps keep the Earth cool," Scambos said in a telephone interview. "Without that Arctic ice, or with much less of it, the Earth will warm much faster."

That is because the ice reflects light and heat; when it is gone, the much darker land or sea will absorb more light and heat, making it more difficult for the planet to cool down, even in winter, he said.

Scambos and co-authors of the study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, used satellite data and visual confirmation of Arctic ice to reach their conclusions, a far different picture than that obtained from computer models used by the scientists of the intergovernmental panel.

"The IPCC report was very careful, very thorough and cautious, so they erred on the side of what would certainly occur as opposed to what might occur," Scambos said in a telephone interview.

ICE-FREE SUMMER

The wide possibility of what might occur included a much later melt up north, or a much earlier one, Scambos said.

"It appears we're on pace about 30 years earlier than expected to reach a state where we don't have sea ice or at least not very much in late summer in the Arctic Ocean," he said.

He discounted the notion that the sharp warming trend in the Arctic might be due to natural climate cycles. "There aren't many periods in history that are this dramatic in terms of natural variability," Scambos said.

He said he had no doubt that this was caused in large part by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which he said was the only thing capable of changing Earth on such a large scale over so many latitudes.

Asked what could fix the problem -- the topic of a new report by the intergovernmental panel to be released on Friday in Bangkok -- Scambos said a large volcanic eruption might hold Arctic ice melting at bay for a few years.

But he saw a continued warm-up as inevitable in the coming decades.

"Long-term and for the next 50 years, I think even the new report will agree that we're in for quite a bit of warming," Scambos said.

"We just barely now, I think, have enough time and enough collective will to be able to get through this century in good shape, but it means we have to start acting now and in a big way."

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Posts: 4005 | From: Shaolin | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
NR
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Well the Russians will certianly benefit from this..

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rimasco
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How you figure? Their big furry hats will be rendered obsolete...along with their number 1 excuse for their VUDKA consumption.

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Posts: 4005 | From: Shaolin | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
NR
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One of Russia's biggest economic problems is that it does not have a seaport that is free of ice year round...

With global warming, this problem is solved, and they will have a way to export all that Caspian Sea oil and natural gas without having to build pipelines through other countries.

Also, Russia is a huge country that is mostly "useless" tundra... With global warming, the southern portions should become more temperate... You follow my drift?


[Wink]

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NR
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Well, ok they do have ports in the Black sea, but they don't get full use of it like they want because Turkey, a NATO nation, controls the Bosporus straits.

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rimasco
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I know what you meant NR....

What do they do about the "Billion" refugee's that will migrate from the south due to the fact that they cant grow anything down there cause it will all be desert and a 160 degrees.......IN THE WINTER

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NR
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The Russians don't seem to have a problem keeping the borders closed...

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bdgee
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Yeah, neither do the Mexicans or the Guatamalians.

So, maybe that tells you something?

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NR
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Hmmm.... Yes it does Bdgee. It tells me it is very easy for Socialist and (ex)Communist countries to control the border. [Wink]

Is that were we should be headed in order to stop the flow of illegal aliens who pour into this country?

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rimasco
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I personally think we should just increase border patrols. [Wink]

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Posts: 4005 | From: Shaolin | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
bdgee
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NR, you are passionately obsessed with communism.

There is not one behind every tree, looking to slash your throat.

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glassman
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all the people with beach property will be hurting bad...

i guess i'll be looking for my retirement beach house at 4 feet elevation (today) [Wink]

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NR
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LOL.... and you, like most Americans are complacent to communism and probably believed everything the media spewed out in the 90's about how "communism is dead".

I don't think there is a communist "behind every tree", but I do think that Communism IS NOT DEAD, and is only taking a breather in order to regroup and resupply....

I'll leave it at that, because this is way off-topic for this thread. If you want to discuss it further, start up a Communism thread and I'll voice my thoughts and opinions there.

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glassman
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the Chinese ARE communist and they are poised to take control of the world economy because our US govt HANDS them the reins... they must be OK if our govt likes them so much???? [Confused]

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bdgee
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quote:
Originally posted by NaturalResources:
LOL.... and you, like most Americans are complacent to communism and probably believed everything the media spewed out in the 90's about how "communism is dead".

I don't think there is a communist "behind every tree", but I do think that Communism IS NOT DEAD, and is only taking a breather in order to regroup and resupply....

I'll leave it at that, because this is way off-topic for this thread. If you want to discuss it further, start up a Communism thread and I'll voice my thoughts and opinions there.

Let's get something straight.

I DID NOT IMPOSE COMMUNISM ON THIS THREAD, YOU DID!

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NR
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Holy Cow Bdgee... Take a breather... I never suggested that you did.

I was just saying, that while I'd be more than happy to discuss this with you, I don't want to discuss it here because it is taking the thread off topic. I was not assigning any blame to anyone, just stating a fact. I didn't really feel like starting another thread, so I was simply suggesting that if you cared to hear more of what I thought, you could start another thread and I'd discuss it there...

I know you are pretty upset at Munkin Man right now but you don't have to take it out on me...

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rimasco
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GUYS...Fella's....please...could we bring back the term "pinko-slob"?

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rimasco
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I see nobody got MM to break his third character yet?

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bdgee
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The devil you didn't. Not only that, but you presented yourself as the restrained one, pleading with me to stop posting on communism in this thread on communism, as if I tarted it and refused to stop.

You do that sort of crap all the time. Am I to believe you are really too slow to understand the inplications of your approach and inferred condemnations?

It was you, not me that posted on communism. I mearly noted your obsession with the subject.

I am not "pretty upset" with that ill mannered mini-brain. And I am not taking it out on you.

I am disgusted that he insults the intellect of the world with that clap-trap of super subordination of students as the key to success in scholarship. (Of course, he has never experienced success, as he so often informs us.)

Again, it was you that brought in communism, not me.

Maybe you should put some effort into developing a writing style that isn't based on demeaning others or odering them about, so you won't be constantly in attack mode.

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NR
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Seriously Bdgee,

I wasn't "attacking" you or suggesting anything other than starting a new thread on the topic that I brought up because I didn't want to ruin Rimasco's thread.

Sorry if you took it that way.

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rimasco
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YEAH!!!!!I REKON!! LOOK WHATS DONE-COME OF MY THREAD!!!!!

whos gone clean dat dem dere mess up???

I REKON!!!!!

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andrew
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After my own research I believe Global Warming is BS. This is my opinion until someone shows me that it is real. The earth naturally warms up and cools down.


How much does the so-called 'greenhouse effect' warm the Earth?
It's estimated that the Earth's surface would be about -18 °C (0 °F, 255 K) with atmosphere and clouds but without the greenhouse effect and that the (we'll call it "natural") greenhouse effect raises the Earth's temperature by ~33 °C (59 °F). Devoid of atmosphere it would actually be a less cold -1 °C (272 K) because the first calculation strangely includes 31% reflection of solar radiation by clouds (which could obviously not occur without an atmosphere) while clouds actually add significantly to the greenhouse effect - for simplicity, just stick with ~33 °C.

[Edited for clarity, April 24] Theoretically, if the planet's surface cooled by radiation alone, then the greenhouse-induced surface temperature would be much warmer, about 350 K (77 °C), but atmospheric motion (convective towers carrying latent and sensible heat upwards and large scale circulation carrying it both upwards and polewards) significantly increase the "escape" of energy to space, leaving Earth's surface more than 60 °C cooler than a static atmosphere would do.

So, despite there being far more greenhouse gas in the atmosphere than required to achieve the current greenhouse effect, and that has been so since before humans discovered fire, evapo-transpiration and thermals transport heat higher in the atmosphere where radiation to space is increased. This is why Earth remains about 15 °C rather than about 77 °C.

Wait a minute! Those aren't the numbers I learned!
Ah! Someone who remembers their science classes eh? Well, you got us. Reference works frequently list the planet's mean surface temperature as 16 °C (61 °F); sometimes 15 °C (59 °F) is mentioned and yes, these are about the expected temperatures by calculation -- in the 1960s and 1970s numbers as high as 65 °F (18 °C) were popular but we haven't seen those for some time. Here we run into a little bit of a problem, however -- taking the Earth's temperature is no trivial task. In fact, even defining precisely what we mean by the absolute surface air temperature is challenging. Current global temperature anomalies (the amount of warming or cooling reported) are estimated against an expected average of 14 °C (57 °F) -- the guess-timated mean temperature over the period 1961-1990.


Part of the earths natural rhythm.

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bdgee
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Well, andy, that means that you will newer change your mind, because what you claim is research is regurgitating far right extremist religion based propaganda.

It is, at its core, fundamentally anti-American b-ll sh-t, in that it is designed and intended to undermine the Constitution and subjugate us all to control by religious fanaticism, leaning on and supported only by outdated and backward religious myth.

So you go on believing as you choose, andy, but stop flooding the world with that clap-trap you claim to be serious investigation. It isn't even close to the actual facts. Of course, you and Fat Rush, the Doper and the Champion of Dishonorable Discourse, Sean Hannity and Ann, the Adam's Apple Distorter and Liar will always be looking for ways to destroy America's foundations. That has become what "conservatism" means in the last couple of decades.

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andrew
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How dare you!! "Looking for ways to destroy America's foundation." I believe different than you and now I am destroying America's foundation?

Bdgee, I respect you because you seem very educated......but why must you put me in with those wackos? I am not democrat or Republican. Sure I used to be Republican. I consider myself an independant now. So please sir do not call me a far right extremist.

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bdgee
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Yes you are participating in destroying America's foundations.

I put you in with the wackos because you preach their sermons.

Not a far right winger? Waddles like a duck....quacks like a duck....has webbed feet......

So long as you practice the prattle of the Limbaughs and the Hannitys and the rest of the right wing extreme, claiming there is any viability to the notion that global warming is not scientifically overwhelming and absolutely dangerous, basing your constructed conclusions on things that are totally unrelated to fact or scientific relavance, you are only preaching their sermon, demanding and biased political interpretation rather than one derived of scientific principles.

You may consider yourself independent, but your soul still lives a life of evangelical far rightwing radical extremist, as it did before and that cannot be prevented from showing.

I commend you for trying, but you still have a ways to go before freeing yourself from the mental and emotional shackles of the rightwing. Free thinking is difficult....hard work.....constant work....and requires giving up long ago learned prejudices and favored political solutions.

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rimasco
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by andrew:
[QB] After my own research I believe Global Warming is BS. This is my opinion until someone shows me that it is real. The earth naturally warms up and cools down.[QB][QUOTE]

Well for the record Andy....I hope your right.

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andrew
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bdgee.....your funny.
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glassman
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not as funny as Kudlow [Wink]

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bdgee
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awwwwwww geeeeeee

But don't get any ideas!

I'm strictly a leg man and ever leg I ever liked had something female on one end.

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glassman
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like i said? not as funny as Kudlow...

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andrew
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All I am asking is READ with an open mind. Can you do that? hmmmmmm.......

Global warming is always a hot topic in liberal media circles, where the political and scientific consensus is that global climate change is occurring, it is a danger, it is caused by mankind and we need to start doing something serious about reversing it.

For a little balance, we called up Fred Singer, aka "the godfather of global warming denial." An expert on global climate change and a pioneer in the development of rocket and satellite technology, he holds a Ph.D. in physics from Princeton and happens to be the guy who devised the basic instrument for measuring stratospheric ozone. Now president of the Science & Environmental Policy Project research group (sepp.org), his dozen books include "Hot Talk, Cold Science: Global Warming's Unfinished Debate." I talked to him by telephone from his offices in Arlington, Va.

Q: Here's a line from a recent Mother Jones article: "There is overwhelming scientific consensus that greenhouse gases emitted by human activity are causing global average temperatures to rise." Is that true?
A: It's completely unsupported by any observation, but it's supported by computer climate models. In other words, the computer models would indicate this. The observations do not.

Q: What's the best argument or proof that global warming is not happening?
A: The best proof are data taken of atmospheric temperature by two completely different methods. One is from instruments carried in satellites that look down on the atmosphere. The other is from instruments carried in balloons that ascend through the atmosphere and take readings as they go up. These measurements show that the atmospheric warming, such as it is, is extremely slight -- a great deal less than any of the models predicts, and in conflict also with observations of the surface.

Q: An epic New Yorker series said unequivocally that the permafrost, the Arctic sea ice and the Greenland glaciers are all melting. Is that true and is it because of global warming?
A: The Arctic temperatures have been now measured for a long time. They vary cyclically. The warmest years in the Arctic were around 1940. Then it cooled. And it's warming again, but it hasn't reached the levels of 1940. It will continue to oscillate. That's the best prediction.

Q: What is the most dangerous untrue "fact" about global warming that's out there in the media-sphere?
A: The rise in sea level. Again, the observations show that sea level has risen in the last 18,000 years by about 400 feet and is continuing to rise at a uniform rate, and is not accelerating, irrespective of warming or cooling. In fact, sea level will continue to rise at a slow rate of 8 inches per century, as it has been for the last few thousand years.

Q: If you had a 12-year-old grandkid who was worried about global warming, what would you tell him?
A: I would tell them that there are many more important problems in the world to worry about, such as diseases, pandemics, nuclear war and terrorism. The least important of these is global warming produced by humans, because it will be insignificant compared to natural fluctuations of climate.

Q: How did you become "the godfather of global warming denial"?
A: That's easy. Age. I organized my first conference on global warming in 1968. At that time I had no position. It was a conference called "The global effects of environmental pollution." At that time I remember some of the experts we had speaking thought the climate was going to warm and some thought it was going to cool. That was the situation.

Q: Climate is extremely complicated -- is that a true statement?
A: Immensely complicated. Which is a reason why the models will never be able to adequately simulate the atmosphere. It's just too complicated.

Q: Give me a sample of how complicated just one little thing can be.
A: The most complicated thing about the atmosphere that the models cannot capture is clouds. First of all, clouds are small. The resolution of the computer models is about 200 miles; clouds are much smaller than that. Secondly, they don't know when clouds form. They have to guess what humidity is necessary for a cloud to form. And of course, humidity is not the only factor. You have to have nuclei -- little particles -- on which the water vapor can condense to form droplets. They don't know that either. And they don't know at what point the cloud begins to rain out. And they don't know at what point -- it goes on like this.

Q: Is this debate a scientific fight or a political fight?
A: Both. I much support a scientific fight, because I'm pretty sure we'll win that -- because the data support us; they don't support the climate models. Basically it's a fight of people who believe in data, or who believe in the atmosphere, versus people who believe in models.

Q: Is it not true that CO2 levels have gone up by about a third in the last 100 years?
A: A little more than a third, yes. I accept that.

Q: Do you say that's irrelevant?
A: It's relevant, but the effects cannot be clearly seen. The models predict huge effects from this, but we don't see them.

Q: Why is it important that global warming be studied in a balanced, scientific, depoliticized way?
A: It's a scientific problem. The climate is something we live with, and we need to know what effect human activities are having on climate. I don't deny that there's some effect of human activities on climate. We need to learn how important they are.

Q: Why is it important that global warming be studied in a balanced, scientific, depoliticized way?
A: It's a scientific problem. The climate is something we live with and we need to know what effect human activities are having on climate. I don't deny that there's some affect of human activities on climate. Cities are warmer now than they used to be. We have changed forests into agricultural fields. That has some affect on climate. We irrigate much of the Earth. That affects climate. And so on. We are having some influence on climate, at least on a small scale. So we need to know these things. We need to how important they are.

Q: And global warming is something we should study but not get panicky about?
A: The thing to keep in mind always is that the natural fluctuations of climate are very much larger than anything we can ascribe ­ so far ­ to any human activity. Much larger. We lived through a Little Ice Age just a few hundred years ago. During the Middle Ages the climate was much warmer than it is today. So the climate does change all the time. We need to understand the scientific reasons for natural climate change. Most of us now think it's the sun that is the real driver of climate. It has something to do with sun spots, but the mechanism is not quite clear. That's what's being studied now.

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bdgee
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"For a little balance, we called up Fred Singer"

Ballance? Fred Singer?

That's like suggesting that Satan be allowed to rewrite the Ten Commandments to achieve "balance".

That guy is not an atmospheric scientist and he is not an expert on global climate change. He is an expert on chemical instrumentation, a far cry from climate science. He is also a person that has gotten rich by acting as a rightwing political hack.

The Science & Environmental Policy Project is a far rightwing and corporate entity that exists solely to put forth propaganda designed to discredit global warming and any that publish it. It IS NOT a research group of any kind,

You might, want to look at his public statements from ten years ago which directly contradict those you quote above. It isn't difficult to find those statements. You could begin here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S._Fred_Singer

Not a nice try. If you expect to look open minded, citing and following sources claiming qualifications they do not have and paid to generate political fodder for the rightwing to attack science isn't the way.

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glassman
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just because Fred gets a royalty every time we shoot off some of our more expensive ordnance is no reason to call him a right wing hack [Big Grin]

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bdgee
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If thgat were the reason, I wouldn't.

He is a rightwing hack because he takes money to misrepresent science for the rightwingers.

Posts: 11304 | From: Fort Worth, Texas | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
andrew
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LOL
Posts: 1178 | From: Mobile, AL | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
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