posted
Hey Glass, are U still thinking a double dip on the DOW? It's over 12K now.....just wanting your thoughts on the matter.
If so....why? And when?
-------------------- It is impossible to make anything foolproof because fools are so ingenious. Posts: 3311 | From: St. Louis | Registered: Feb 2005
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posted
it's hard to beleive we didn't have one already...
i guess the govt interfered too much huh
it seems too late to have one now, but it would not take much to trigger another one... political unrest could be the next trigger, and we are seeing it spread... so far it seems fairly peaceful in the mideast, but it will only take one jerk to change that... i look to Iran for the source of the real problem when it happens
i have been so busy in my work the last month that i haven't been keeping up, i just haven't got a specific opinion right now....
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
Also watch worldwide inflation on food and gas.
Worldwide food costs and unemployment are both at highs. Last summer Russia's crop yield was horrible due to drought. A large amount of Australia's wheat crop was damaged due to flooding. American beef stock is at a 50 year low. A good chunk of the Middle-East's oil exports leave through ports on the Mediterranean or through the Suez (Think Egypt). Any disruption to transportation will send oil rocketing which will put further pressure on food costs.
Not saying it is going to happen. I don't know why the DOW has been so resilient, but if it is going to happen I think food and oil will be the straw that breaks the camels back.
-------------------- No longer eligible for government service due to lack of tax issues. Posts: 5178 | From: Up North | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
IMO, the DOW has been so resilient because the banks, brokers and hedges have had the cash to do it. (see Govt intervention, specifiaclly the bailout of AIG)
this rebound is still not being driven by "consumers", the pro's have pumped it full of cash and are waiting for consumers to buy the stock from them... when that happens (which may be never because of inflation, complete loss of faith in the financial industry, and the Govt) the banks will sell for a huge profit.
they are risking everything on the hope that they will not start a stampeded amongst themselves....
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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quote:Originally posted by The Bigfoot: Also watch worldwide inflation on food and gas.
Worldwide food costs and unemployment are both at highs. Last summer Russia's crop yield was horrible due to drought. A large amount of Australia's wheat crop was damaged due to flooding. American beef stock is at a 50 year low. A good chunk of the Middle-East's oil exports leave through ports on the Mediterranean or through the Suez (Think Egypt). Any disruption to transportation will send oil rocketing which will put further pressure on food costs.
Not saying it is going to happen. I don't know why the DOW has been so resilient, but if it is going to happen I think food and oil will be the straw that breaks the camels back.
we may have the trigger sooner than we thought now.
Oil is running up supposedly in response to Libya, but IMO it only needed an excuse, any excuse. Keep in mind that we currently have a glut of refined products right now
US Stocks Drop 2nd-Straight Day Over Rising Oil Prices, Weak H-P Sales
By Jonathan Cheng
Stocks piled on a second day of steep losses as concerns over rising oil prices and disappointing sales at technogloy giant Hewlett-Packard sent investors scrambling for safety.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished trade lower by 107.01 points, or 0.88%, at 12105.78, dragged down by a 9.6% tumble at H-P. H-P's fall accounted for the bulk of the declines in the blue-chip Dow. Also weighing were Caterpillar and 3M, which were off 2% and 1.9% respectively.
The last time the Dow fell by more than 100 points in consecutive sessions was last June.
The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 8.04 points, or 0.61%, to 1307.40, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 33.43 points, or 1.21%, to 2722.99.
Oil prices climbed as concerns about political turmoil in Libya triggered fears of disrupting crude supplies from the North African nation. Brent crude jumped 5.2% to settle at $111.25 a barrel. Crude oil for April delivery briefly touched $100 a barrel before finishing at $98.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 2.8% on the day.
as i said before this is my 16+ hr day season since i only get about 4 months of cool weather here, so i'm not following closely enough to say that this is the beginning of the double dip. What i do think is that we don't need too much reason to have the double dip.
Crude oil stockpiles rise by 2.6 million barrels US Energy Dept. says crude oil and gasoline supplies rose last week
On Wednesday February 2, 2011, 12:23 pm EST
NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. crude oil and gasoline supplies rose last week, the government said Wednesday.
Crude inventories grew by 2.6 million barrels, or 0.8 percent, to 343.2 million barrels, which is 4.3 percent above year-ago levels, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report.
Analysts expected oil supplies to grow by 3 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 28, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.
Gasoline inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels, or 2.7 percent, to 236.2 million barrels. That was 3.6 percent above year-ago levels, and more than analysts expected.
Demand for gasoline over the four weeks ended Jan. 28 was 0.6 percent higher than a year earlier, averaging nearly 8.7 million barrels a day.
U.S. refineries ran at 84.5 percent of total capacity on average, a rise of 2.7 percentage point from the prior week. Analysts expected capacity to fall to 81.3 percent.
Inventories of distillate fuel, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.6 million barrels to 164.1 million barrels. Analysts expected distillate stocks to drop by 1.5 million barrels.
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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You know with the way Obama talked back in 2008 and then pre and post stimulus, you would think he would be having conferences about how well things are rebounding as opposed to defending bad numbers.
-------------------- It isn't so much that liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so many things that aren't so. Posts: 6949 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
if the GOP doesn't raise the debt limit we go into a severe Depression within weeks.
there is only one way out of this mess, tax imports particularly from China and raise taxes in general- pay off 50% of our debt- (which we have accumulated in just the last ten years) and then limit spending to 17% of GDP on a permanent basis.
In 2009, the last full year available, federal spending accounted for 24.7 percent of GDP. That's higher than it's been in any year since 1949 -- 60 years prior. You have to go back to 1946 to find a higher percentage -- 24.8 -- and that was a year in which the nation was winding down high rates of spending for World War II. (From 1943 to 1945, the height of the war, federal spending ranged from 41 percent to 43 percent of GDP.)
Clearly, recessions have an impact on how high this percentage gets. The only other years since 1946 in which federal spending exceeded 23 percent of GDP came in 1982 and 1983, with 23.1 percent and 23.5 percent, respectively. That was during and immediately after the 1981-82 recession -- the last one that rivaled today's in severity. Economic downturns tend to affect this statistic because they slow GDP growth and increase the demand for government services. Even without special stimulus measures, spending goes up for mandatory items such as food stamps.
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
The GOP WILL raise the debt limit, they just want to see some spending cuts....something the Dems just cant seem to get off of.
-------------------- It isn't so much that liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so many things that aren't so. Posts: 6949 | Registered: Apr 2004
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-------------------- "The greatest argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter." (WC) Posts: 386 | From: Georgia | Registered: May 2009
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"As the size of the Fed's balance sheet ballooned," continues Mr. Pento, "the dollar amount of capital held at the Fed has remained fairly constant. Today, the Fed has $52.5 billion of capital backing a $2.7 trillion balance sheet.
"Prior to the bursting of the credit bubble, the public was shocked to learn that our biggest investment banks were levered 30-to-1. When asset values fell, those banks were quickly wiped out. But now the Fed is holding many of the same types of assets and is levered 51-to-1! If the value of their portfolio were to fall by just 2%, the Fed itself would be wiped out."
it's not clear to me that the Fed can be wiped out...
why?
because there does not appear to me to be anybody like a coroner who can pronounce them dead...
in other words, they can keep doing business with nothing, and there's nobody to take their place.
China? i don't think that is palatable.
BTW? those 30-1 values are debatable, i've seen figures claimed as high as 80 to one in many funds.
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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-------------------- It isn't so much that liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so many things that aren't so. Posts: 6949 | Registered: Apr 2004
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posted
it would increase (retail) peoples trust in the markets if naked short-selling would be banned world wide.
there is no need to ban short-selling as long as borrwoing of shares is documented...
the "thing" is? who in their right mind would lend their shares to someone else for free, to short sell against them? LOL.... once shares are borrwoed from me, i cannot sell them until i get them back, right?
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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posted
i'm thinking "lost decade" scenario rather than double dip at the moment.
the banks have obvioulsy gone thru several liquidity crises.
i am really curious where all the money has disapeared to.
it looks to me as tho about 20 trillion in cash has disappeared from the world economy.
i thinkalot of it has gone into trading commodities, like oil and corn, but not all of it.
i would have to spend about a year digging thru the commodities market trades to sor t out how much is tied p there...
i beleive that we are stuck with a sour economy as long as gasoline remains above 2.75 per gallon, but even at 2.75 growth will be slow...
of course, if pay were to begin going up for the middle class? things would improve for everybody.
as you say? the rubber band is being stretched tight as drum. the question is will it break? or will it rebound?
that is up to the banks. will they get enough cash reserves back to where they can begin allowing it to flow back into the middle class and allow economic growth? or are they so depleted that they are simply attempting a "soft landing"- when it does break? and if not, look out for the infaltioary reaction, it will be devastating too...
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise. Posts: 36378 | From: USA | Registered: Sep 2003
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