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Monday, Jul 13, 2009 Posted on Sun, Jul. 12, 2009 Report predicts even hotter Southeast in decades to come By S. Heather Duncan Are Middle Georgia summers hot enough for you? Because according to the U.S. government, they’re going to get hotter.
Due to global warming, the Southeast is likely to see twice as many days a year with temperatures hitting the 90 degree mark or hotter, according to a federal report released last month. The report also predicts that the hottest days will be more than 10 degrees hotter.
The report by the U.S. Global Change Research Program synthesizes the results of research assembled by 13 federal departments and agencies including NASA, the departments of defense and energy, the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Research Council. It is the second report ever issued by the federal government on the predicted impacts of global climate change on the United States, and the first one to break down impacts by region.
Among other things, it shows a sweltering Southeast. The report predicts that by the 2080s, the region will see an increase of 4.5 to 9 degrees in its average temperatures, depending on carbon dioxide emissions. But the extremes of heat will be greater and the heat index higher.
This will be deadly to both humans and animals such as beef cattle, the report states. Although fewer cold-related deaths are predicted, these aren’t expected to offset the higher number of heat-related deaths.
“I think people totally underestimate how much a few degrees affects everything from what you grow to how virulent kudzu will become,” said Jeanette Gayer with Environment Georgia. Gayer said she wants Georgia to act on the information by setting targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency.
The report predicts that between 2080 and 2099, the Southeast can expect 150 days a year when the mercury tops 90 degrees, at least twice the annual number during the period from 1961 to 1979.
Georgia scientists who had read the report said they were most alarmed by these predictions for extreme heat.
“When I read those numbers, I think about what that means to me and my family and my lifestyle, and that’s a very different picture of the South than what I grew up with,” said Michael Chang, an air pollution specialist and deputy director of the Brook Byers Institute for Sustainable Systems at Georgia Tech.
The higher temperatures would have a variety of day-to-day effects, such as buckling pavement and railways, causing more fish kills in streams and expanding the range of disease-carrying insects and rodents.
“Imagine the gnat lineup in Atlanta,” Chang said. “We’d have the gnats, the smog, the heat and the crime.”
Crop production will likely drop, the report states.
“The increase in extreme temperatures and precipitation is of importance to people in Georgia because we have quite a large agricultural base,” said Marshall Shepherd, a meteorologist and University of Georgia professor.
DROUGHTS, HURRICANES AND TORNADOES
Besides the blazing heat, the report predicts other major changes to Southern climate: more frequent and intense droughts, a higher sea level and more powerful hurricanes and storm surges. These will, in turn, drive up insurance costs.
Shepherd said it is tough to accurately predict how much sea level is going to rise, and some scientists disagree on whether global warming will increase the frequency or intensity of hurricanes.
“But it’s very plausible, and I tend to fall on the side of increased hurricane activity,” he said.
The report shows that the area of severe spring and summer drought in the Southeast has already increased by 14 percent since the mid-1970s.
Judith Curry, professor and chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, said the federal report highlights the widening gap between Georgia’s rapid growth and its water resources. Georgia remains locked in a water war with Alabama and Florida as it recovers from its second drought in a decade.
A study published last month indicates that the droughts caused by global warming could have an unexpected benefit in the Southeast: reducing tornado activity.
Marshall was the lead author of the NASA-funded study, which analyzed 50 years of Southeast weather and climate data. Researchers found there were spring tornado days after a drought the previous fall and winter.
“We think when the soil is dry, it keeps the early spring from being primed for thunderstorms,” said Shepherd, who started the research after Atlanta was hit by downtown tornadoes during the state’s recent historic drought. Macon and other Middle Georgia communities were also ravaged by destructive tornadoes last year.
Shepherd’s group is now checking to see if drought has the same relationship with tornadoes in the Midwest’s “tornado alley.” If so, it could provide meteorologists their first tool for predicting the severity of upcoming tornado seasons as they do for hurricane seasons.
Shepherd is starting another research project that will examine the potential effects of climate change on vulnerable populations in the Southeast. For example, will an increase in extremely hot days cause more harm to the poor, elderly or racial minorities?
Shepherd and other scientists say more specific Southeast climate research is needed. The national report also recommended regional studies to guide local leaders on decisions about zoning, building codes, infrastructure and crop planting.
“We really need to think about a Southern strategy for climate change,” Chang said, noting that the European model is more socialist, and existing American models used in California and the Northeast rely on heavy regulation that would not be accepted in the South.
Curry said some Georgia scientists are applying for grant funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to do a detailed analysis of global warming impacts in the Southeast. That could be used to create a climate action plan.
Georgia remains one of only about 10 states with no climate action plan, Curry said. “Georgia is going to start losing out in terms of economic development without that,” she said. “Companies already want to know what the plan is for sustainability.”
To contact writer S. Heather Duncan, call 744-4225.
-------------------- Wise men learn more from fools than fools from the wise. Posts: 3827 | From: beautiful California | Registered: Sep 2008
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