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RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor Last Updated: 12:19am BST 19/06/2008
The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets. RBS said the iTraxx index of high-grade corporate bonds could soar to 130/150 while the "Crossover" index of lower grade corporate bonds could reach 650/700 in a renewed bout of panic on the debt markets.
"I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names.
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Morgan Stanley warns of 'catastrophic event' as ECB fights Federal Reserve
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor Last Updated: 1:29am BST 17/06/2008
The clash between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve over monetary strategy is causing serious strains in the global financial system and could lead to a replay of Europe's exchange rate crisis in the 1990s, a team of bankers has warned.
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.
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You can expect margin calls to ruin all that shorting fun. Be best to be out of stocks completely when the $hit hits the fan. Not even sure that currencies would be a safe haven.
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I found I'm better at finding bottoms than tops...so if I think the market is gonna be bearish I do it backwards...I find a bottom on a Bearish ETF that makes decent percentage moves...
Like SKF...in the last two months it went from $90 to $135 ...and will go higher if that article in this thread is correct!
It looks like resistance is around 147-150, the two tops in january and march.....so I think no matter what I'd sell if it hits $145
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A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.
if these guys are correct? there's still a long way to drop....
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.
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quote:Originally posted by CashCowMoo: A short sellers dream come true!
Yes indeed. Makes you wonder why most of us don't go short & follow the trend especially in the auto, airline and other related industries that rely on gas/oil.
-------------------- Let the world change you... And you can change the world.
quote:Originally posted by glassman: SKF is rolling like a freight train now...
I'm showing a high of 153.60...that's crazy,
did you notice that when oil trading stopped, the market stopped dropping for a little while? i beleive alot of money is coming straight out of stocks and into oil long...
HISTORICALLY? this implies an oil bubble that should burst... but oil is like no other commodity or security because it flows very steadily without seasonal adjustments and it gets used up as soon as it is delivered....
-------------------- Don't envy the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise.
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The market will burst in so many ways - SAD but I dont think the american taxpayer should bailout the greedy rich who stole our money -
So - yes, many in the economy from bush to oil companies to hedge fund, to politicians just plain greeed - now, crash or save the butt that screwed this country?
I say let it play out - i dont want to save no butt- i say jail for their butts and fines-
WHat is it with hedge funds? Why is it legal?
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Democratic primaries this year should tell you that your vote doesn't count. Jailed for complaining about it? Go protest anything in NYC.. or any other city for that matter. Bamm.. in jail you'll be. Disturbing the peace or some other idiotic BS will be the charge.
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Nah, maybe I'll dig one up later to better illustrate the point. Didn't figure I had to simply because you already agree with it. I just don't have much enthusiasm left. I generally am pretty happy with my ability to see various timelines. I enjoy that about my brain. What timeline I cannot see is the one that ends happily for this species. We are stupid and scared. In geologic terms humans will be gone very soon and the next pinnacle species will take over. And I just see less and less reason to care when all the timelines result in our "time" being refered to as a stepping stone for a species who marvels at our ineptitudes. Surely more on this later.
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Dale Carnegey was aimed more at sales than anything else. I simply can't find it possible to care less about selling my knowledge. To be completely honest, I don't know a salesman I like. Selling is dishonesty.
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Oil is dead - in interim short term critical but in long term it is dead/ The US economy will sink further all thru 2008 and rebound slowly in 2nd qtr 2009 when more innovative companies lead - significant rebound in 2010. We will see more solar, and maybe ocean energy, etc... we will see technology continue, we will see industires spurt - old firms only that are efficient will survive in short/intermdeiate term but definitey in long term, bye bye to the oil, the cars that are of today - and long term is 8+ years ... there will be an economic slowdown more painful than current but in the rebound we in usa will be more innovative and stronger -
What can accelerate this process is supportive policies but it will come -
We will win in Iraq and Iran may not be a threat cause the young of Iran are not Koran extremist -
McCain will win the prez and Romny will be VP - smart choice cause Romney will be prez in his first term -
We agree on most so we can future predict - I do hope the administration (current and future) see that Iran as a country may not be a threat but the current leadership is - but the young and the majority dont agree with the mullahs....
Guess we will see but amazing ---it is a stretch but i thought i would look into the crystal ball -
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Personally, i saw the market further go down this week with the realization, it will continue, BUT i look at it as an opportunity to buy low on potential winners.
Beyond the physical manifestaion of what is, our spiritual selves can do wonders - mine wants to make millions in this downturn - pick the winning future cmpanies -
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quote:Originally posted by Ace of Spades: I found I'm better at finding bottoms than tops...so if I think the market is gonna be bearish I do it backwards...I find a bottom on a Bearish ETF that makes decent percentage moves...
Like SKF...in the last two months it went from $90 to $135 ...and will go higher if that article in this thread is correct!
It looks like resistance is around 147-150, the two tops in january and march.....so I think no matter what I'd sell if it hits $145
Holy Chit....SKF IS NOW AT $182..ALMOST TRIPPLED IN A YEAR...
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quote:Originally posted by glassman: RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor Last Updated: 12:19am BST 19/06/2008
The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets. RBS said the iTraxx index of high-grade corporate bonds could soar to 130/150 while the "Crossover" index of lower grade corporate bonds could reach 650/700 in a renewed bout of panic on the debt markets.
"I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names.
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