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HAVANA, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Dangerous Hurricane Ike roared toward Cuba with 135 mph (215 kph) winds on Sunday and was expected to sweep into the Gulf of Mexico where it could threaten the U.S. oilpatch and possibly New Orleans.
Cuban authorities scrambled to evacuate hundreds of thousands of people in the eastern and central coastal areas using buses, trucks and whatever other transportation was available as Ike bore down as a fierce Category 4 hurricane that could flood the shore with 18 feet (5.5 metres) of water.
As Ike battered Britain's Turks and Caicos Islands and the southern Bahamas, residents of the Florida Keys, a 110-mile (177-km) island chain connected by bridges with only one road out, were told to evacuate as a precaution.
When it emerges from Cuba, Ike could follow a path similar to that of last week's Hurricane Gustav toward Louisiana and Texas. That would be a threat to New Orleans, the city swamped by Katrina three years ago, and the Gulf energy rigs, which account for a quarter of U.S. oil and 15 percent of natural gas output.
MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND
Thousands of tourists staying at Cuba's prime resorts along the northern coast from Guardalavaca in eastern Holguin to Varadero in the west were being taken inland or to safe locations at resorts as hotels were boarded up.
Ranchers herded cattle in the prime grazing areas of eastern Las Tunas and Camaguey to higher ground, while port workers struggled to move cargo inland.
"We are at a disadvantage because there are no hills and mountains to break the wind," farm worker Artemio Madonadoemos said from the flatlands of Las Tunas.
"If the storm comes through here the damage will be enormous," he said before closing up his humble dwelling and heading for his brother's home in the city of Las Tunas.
Ike was set to come ashore in Holguin, home of the nickel industry, Cuba's most important export, then move westward over the heart of the sugar industry. Holguin's mines and three processing plants in the mountains were shut down.
Ike was forecast to batter the islands in its path with flooding up to 18 feet (5.5 metres) above normal tides and to rain new misery on Haiti, where hundreds of people died in floods and mudslides caused by three storms in the past month.
By 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT), Ike was sweeping through the Turks and Caicos Islands, a British territory of about 22,000 people, and the sparsely populated southern Bahamas.
The center of the storm was located 15 miles (24 km) west-southwest of Great Inagua Island and was moving west at 13 mph (21 kph), the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
'TOO CLOSE'
A steady stream of traffic moved along the Overseas Highway in the Florida Keys as an evacuation of residents began, even though Ike was expected to pass at least 100 miles (160 km) to the south.
"It's just too close to not react to it," Monroe County administrator Roman Gastesi said.
But many residents looked at the storm with typical nonchalance in laid-back Key West. Pete Cooper and his wife, Diane, were bar-hopping along the waterfront on Saturday.
"We've prepared our house and feel safe," said Pete Cooper. "As long as it's not a Cat-4, we are staying."
The densely populated Florida southeast coast from Miami to West Palm Beach, home to some 5 million people and billions of dollars of pricey real estate, appeared less likely to be hit.
Ike was forecast to curve into the Gulf in the wake of Gustav, which slammed ashore west of New Orleans, sparing the city traumatized by Katrina in 2005.
Katrina killed 1,500 people and caused about $80 billion damage on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Its most likely track had it headed for the Texas-Louisiana border. But long-range forecasts have a large margin of error and a slight deviation could take it toward New Orleans.
Forecasters expected Ike to weaken to a Category 1 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity scale over Cuba but to regain Category 3 strength as it nears the U.S. Gulf coast.
Oil companies had begun returning workers to the offshore platforms that were evacuated before Gustav hit. But one company, Shell Oil Co. (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research), said on Saturday it had stopped returning workers in case new evacuations were needed.
As of Saturday, more than 90 percent of Gulf oil production and nearly 80 percent of natural gas was still shut down, according to the U.S. Minerals Management Service. (Additional reporting by Michael Haskins in Key West, writing by Jim Loney, editing by Bill Trott)
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Most of the forecasts made in this article are mostly based on computer models. The short term models are fairly accurate for 1-3 days out. Long term models, 3-7 days out, are far less accurate. There are two key factors that could totally change the current forecast of Ike's strength and landfall location.
The first is how well organized Ike is after it travels along most of the length of Cuba over the next couple days. The second is how deep or shallow the next few waves of low pressure coming from the north are when Ike emerges from Cuba into the Gulf.
If any of the troughs deepen more than is forecast, it could draw Ike towards them, giving it a more north-westerly course which could change the eventual landfall location to the east of the Texas-Louisiana border by several hundred miles. If the troughs are shallower, Ike could move more to the west, with eventual landfall in south-eastern Texas or even Mexico.
One thing is certain however. The longer Ike is in the Gulf, the stronger it will most likely become, because of the warm waters and low wind shear.
IMO? I wouldn't put much weight into any forecast of Ike's landfall location and strength made before Wednesday.
For you weather nerds out there who like to play with the same toys as the big boys:
quote:Originally posted by glassman: so, how many people can AFFORD to evacuate again?
we had alot of people in our area that were already out of money on Tuesday looking for help to get back down to the coast...
One of the centers set up for those people was here and a lot of them had to get money from Uncle to go back. I'm glad Uncle planned this time and glad he helped them get back. I was ashamed durring and after Katrina. I hope everyone was.
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