For those keeping count this is the 31st thread for this stock! There has not been a day when people on Allstocks have missed posting about QBID for more than a year and a half. This is true of other boards for this company as well. That alone suggests a very strong invester base for a SUB PENNY STOCK!
I can't think of anything else to write! COX has opened the door, QBID needs to sell their product & Frank still has an audit to publish. So i'm just waiting and checking my reasons for buying.
(1) Do they have a product or service?
(2) Is it a quality product or service?
(3) Is it a marketable product or service?
(4) Are there precedents, companies that provide the same kind of product or service?
(5) Do most if not all these companies trade for over a dollar a share?
(6) What differentiates my prospect from these other companies?
(7) Do they have a target demographic?
(8) Does that demographic have the means to support the product?
(9) Where does the commercial community stand, do Fortune 500 Companies want to reach the prospect's target demographic?
(10) Can the prospect deliver an effective avenue for the major corporations to reach this market?
(11) Do they have sponsors?
(12) What's the possible impact of their primary competition & will my prospect have the lead in the market?
(13) Does this prospect have management with a proven track record of not only running a company but actually bringing a company to market, making it successful & profiting from this endeavor.
And most importantly one personal question,,,
(14) Do I have the discipline, willingness & conviction to maintain a large core position. .....................................................................................
The purchasing power of the U.S. gay and lesbian population will hit an estimated $610 billion in 2005, according to a 2004 study by Witeck-Combs Communications, a Washington, D.C.-based marketing firm specializing in the gay marketplace.
Michelle Scales, director of Wells Fargo's division of "diverse growth segments," ticked off a list of attributes that makes the gay and lesbian market a natural fit for the bank: the U.S. gay population is estimated to include 15 million people with a combined $610 billion in purchasing power. Gays and lesbians are twice as likely to own a small business as non-gays, and 75 percent have incomes above the national average. Seven of every 10 gay couples own a home.
In a letter to shareholders posted on the Q website Frank tells us,,,
....................................................................... "We are the official broadcaster of the Gay Games, as well as a major sponsor. As I look at the budget for the next 18 months, I believe that, because of that decision, Q Television is going to be profitable faster than most cable stations. The norm for most cable stations is they are not profitable within their first 3-5 years. However, when they start the turnaround, the profits are unbelievable."
***AND THEN IN THE SAME PARAGRAPH HE STARTS TALKING ABOUT SELLING A STATION***
"When an independent station is sold, the rewards are enormous. Here are several examples of stations that were sold for billions of dollars: American Movie Channel, Bravo and other Black entertainment channels."
ALL THAT TALK ABOUT SELLING THEN TRIGGERS HIS TRAIN OF THOUGHT WHICH BRINGS HIM BACK TO WHAT I VEIW AS POSSIBLE TIMING,,,
"This brings me back to the main point. The Gay Games will enable Q Television to be in 150 of the top markets in the United States, and it will be broadcast in 40 countries. It has enabled Q Television to make long term commitments to the countries that are carrying the Gay Games, and help us to negotiate the cable operator contracts. As I reflect further, I believe that Q Television will be profitable by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2006." http://www.qtelevision.com/site/investorinfo.asp .......................................................................
I for one don't see profitablity by 2006. But who cares? I was on SIRI when they converted equity to debt & took their os up to 1.3 billion shares & they STILL HAVEN'T REPORTED A PROFIT. The only mistake I made was not holding a core position. I got in at .40 & sold well over a buck for a fat profit & knew I should have held a core. Believe me! I will not repeat that mistake here!
My guess is Frank will sell sometime before or right after the cames. Exposure will be big & the big boys will see the potential. Viacom will not be the only one interested & we could even see bidding which will be at a premium on future projected earnings.
But again I don't see profits until maybe late 2007 or even 2008 unless I get surprised by huge subscription numbers. With that in mind I still see 3 billion range for buy out. The bidders will argue that we're worth 2.5 at best near term. Even though Frank will know that their mere presence at the negotiating table means they know it's worth alot more in the forseeable future, Frank will take their offer.
So if we're pretty sure Frank will sell, what's the possible bottom line?
This is what I see,,,
Lets take a look at what some would see as worst case scenario. Lets say we see a published audit with 20 or even 25 billion shares out there. I for one am almost sure that's a very high guess. But for the sake of argument lets say it's 25 billion.
Buy next year the games get coverage, we don't even show a profit yet but revenues will have spiked from the games & a modest 100,000 subscriptions which will be growing at a respectable pace. If that holds up QBID will have already surpassed the value of BET when it was sold. Say Frank lets this thing go at 3 billion dollars.
Three billion dollars makes 25 billion shares worth .12 a share!
What if the audit is really bad, 50 billion shares? You're still looking at SIX CENTS A SHARE! I can't speak for anyone else here but if I'm getting paid SIXTY THOUSAND DOLLARS for every two grand I plunk down today I won't cry for any more than a minute.
Now for the good news!
Lets say the audit shows 10 billion shares outstanding (which I still believe is a high estimate) & everything else I said still holds up. First thing I can tell you, if that's the case, frank will not be letting this go for three billion. But say he does. Now we're looking at a FLAT VALUE OF THIRTYTRHEE CENTS A SHARE!
I'm not done!
The reason Frank is having a professional audit done is to provide suitors with a clean bill of health for QBID. Moving to another exchange will be a fringe benefit that will make the product shine a little more.
Remember the PR about reducing its Tradable Stock by Fifty-Three Percent?
"We converted QBID shares into preferred stock, eliminating fifty-three percent of the tradable outstanding shares. We are confident this will strengthen the demand for our stock, and dry up the supply of trading shares that we feel are being manipulated in the market," said Olsen. "Converting our common stock into preferred stock will allow us to retain voting rights, but will also squeeze out the large short position in the stock. Q Television will continue to be as aggressive as possible, and do everything necessary to ensure our shareholders are treated fairly." .....................................................................
This isn't about manipulation! Frank doesn't give a $h!t about MMs. Well maybe a little bit but this was about polishing the product.
Frank's not trying to take 53% of three billion dollars. His major concern was absolute control over his company. Frank will be more than happy with a couple hundred million bucks. Again, this was another move not to scare off potential suiters. Hold that thought!
Personally I like Frank having complete control. Let's just pretend that that Frank, you know, the same Frank that has already sold a profitable media enterprise to Sumner Redstone. Lets just pretend he really wants this thing to be sold & actually kept the share count at or around 4 billion outstanding or less & lets pretend we're even close to actually reporting a profit by the end of the second quarter of 2006.
He will sell! He will sell while he has the attention of major players! And it will not be for three billion dollars! Now you're looking at a bare minimum of 5 billion dollars Maybe as much as 7 billion. If QBID actually showing a profit & we're getting international attention in 40 countries you could even make an argument for,,,,use your imagination!!!!
The hell with it! I'll stay with 5 billion dollars. Factor in Frank's 53% controlling interest which has now been reduced to a handfull of super voting shares & we're starting to see the big picture.
FIVE BILLION DOLLARS & FOUR BILLION SHARES!
This will not come as a huge surprise to me because Genuine Broadcasting National TV Networks do not trade for less than a dollar a share.
I've said it many times. I will not begin to liquidate my core position until I see $1.25 a share!
I really do noy know what the share count is so I assumed the worst that even after Frank reduced "Tradeble Shares" that my numbers reflected what was left. The only number I used that you can throw out is 50 billion shares because Frank's 53% was always counted against AS & therefore. it's impossible for us to see an OS of 50 billion unless Frank increases that which he would have to tell us. I personally believe that at the very worst we might see a float as high as 10 billion or as low as 3.5 billion. But if it is 25 billion my investment is still in good shape.
Because BET went for aprox 3 billion & we will have literally surpassed their value if we are anywhere near profitability. BET never to my knowledge reported a profit. However BET did show increasing subscription from African Americans that were more interested in supporting their own TV Network than watching reruns of the Jefersons & other lame programing.
No! I do not believe we are near 100,000 subscriptions yet but I do not see that as a difficult number to reach & when we hit that it will sell it self as people watch the channel at friends houses. Furthermore our programing will be second to none & our consumer base is every bit as loyal as the African American community when it comes to supporting their their own enterprises.
Having written all that I would remind you do not buy or sell purely on what I write. My tolerance for risk is much higher than most but on the other side I see a threshold of opportunity that will not last an entire year. I will continue to add to my position at a measured pace for at least 9 months. The window of opportunity may close much sooner with a published audit but I don't care. I'm set!!!!
I would like to thank my fellow longs & MillerTime inparticular for asking me questions that made me break down how I arrive at an optimistic outlook for this company.
quote:Originally posted by shlik: This company may not make it and you may loose all of your investment money.
And that is exactly why I broke all this down. I'm measuring risk versus reward & from my very humble point of veiw the odds would appear to be heavily tilted towards REWARD! My decision is made. It would appear that you have to answer where you stand on tolerance for risk.
This is like going to Vegas. If you find your getting too obsesed with stocks,and loosing lots of money, then you are most likely a compulsive gambler, not an investor.
Posts: 348 | From: seattle | Registered: May 2005
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You're as obsessed with QBID as the rest of us! The difference is that, when Q proves what it's worth, the real investors will gain lots of money and you'll just be stamping your feet.
quote:Originally posted by shlik: This is like going to Vegas. If you find your getting too obsesed with stocks,and loosing lots of money, then you are most likely a compulsive gambler, not an investor.
Ya I'm not afraid, good time to get more shares. I think were in a big bounce right now. the charts dont show it because they restructured the shares.
Posts: 348 | From: seattle | Registered: May 2005
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